Strategic foresight for agriculture: Past ghosts, present challenges, and future opportunities

How do carbon emissions, economic growth, population growth, trade openness and employment influence food security? Recent evidence from the East Africa

East Africa has a substantially greater rate of food insecurity than other regions of the world. Scenarios of climate change and other macroeconomic variables are important contributors to food insecurity in East Africa. Using data spanning from 1990 to 2020, this study looked into the influence of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, economic growth, population growth, trade openness, and agricultural employment on food security in the East Africa. The fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) models were used in this study. The heterogeneous panel cointegration test's findings indicated that the study variables have an equilibrium long-term connections. The estimation findings from the FMOLS and DOLS models showed that an increase in CO₂ emissions increases food security in the East Africa over the long term. According to other findings, long-term food security is positively impacted by economic expansion, population growth, trade openness, and employment in agriculture. However, trade openness has a detrimental long-lasting effect on food security. Future research directions, research limitations, and policy implications are discussed.

Global investment gap in agricultural research and innovation to meet Sustainable Development Goals for hunger and Paris Agreement climate change mitigation

This paper provides estimates of the global investment gap in agricultural research and development (R&D) and innovation. The investment gap is defined as the additional annual investments required to end hunger in 2030 (Sustainable Development Goal SDG2) and to put agriculture on the pathway to the Paris Agreement target for 1.5°C increase over pre-industrial temperature levels. The investment gap is projected relative to a reference scenario with projections to 2030 using an integrated economic-biophysical model of the global agri-food system. In addition to showing the impacts on hunger, the modeling results are used to simulate the effect of the gap-closing investments on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture. In addition to projecting the impacts of overall investment in agricultural R&D on productivity and environmental outcomes, the analysis assesses the contributions of different types of innovative technologies and farming systems to the environmental outcomes, especially technologies that contribute to sustainability outcomes. Sustainability-oriented technologies and management practices examined include conservation tillage, nitrogen-use efficiency, improved livestock management, and other climate-smart technologies. The projected results show that additional agricultural R&D investments of USD 4 billion per year above baseline investments together with USD 6.5 billion per year invested in technical climate-smart options, can reduce hunger to 5% globally and achieve 2030 GHG emission reductions consistent with the Paris Agreement 2°C and 1.5°C pathways to 2030.

Foresighting future climate change impacts on fisheries and aquaculture in vietnam

The Vietnamese fisheries sector, including both marine fisheries and aquaculture, has made spectacular progress in recent years, becoming one of the top seafood producing and exporting countries in the world. Looking forward, development goals of this sector must address challenges associated with climate change, including changing distribution of commercially important marine species such as tuna and disruptions to land-based aquaculture production systems. This study investigates the prospective climate change impacts on Vietnam's fisheries sector, focusing on four key commodities including capture fisheries (tuna), freshwater aquaculture (pangasius catfish and tilapia), and brackish water aquaculture (shrimp). The extent of impact varies, but climate change represents a potentially significant threat to sustainable production in each production system. Producers, policy makers, and other stakeholders need to plan for and adapt to climate change to ensure the sustainable development of Vietnam's fisheries sector.