All-cause mortality after first ERCP in England: clinically guided analysis of hospital episode statistics with linkage to registry of death

Risk prediction of cholangitis after stent implantation based on machine learning

The risk of cholangitis after ERCP implantation in malignant obstructive jaundice patients remains unknown. To develop models based on artificial intelligence methods to predict cholangitis risk more accurately, according to patients after stent implantation in patients' MOJ clinical data. This retrospective study included 218 patients with MOJ undergoing ERCP surgery. A total of 27 clinical variables were collected as input variables. Seven models (including univariate analysis and six machine learning models) were trained and tested for classified prediction. The model' performance was measured by AUROC. The RFT model demonstrated excellent performances with accuracies up to 0.86 and AUROC up to 0.87. Feature selection in RF and SHAP was similar, and the choice of the best variable subset produced a high performance with an AUROC up to 0.89. We have developed a hybrid machine learning model with better predictive performance than traditional LR prediction models, as well as other machine learning models for cholangitis based on simple clinical data. The model can assist doctors in clinical diagnosis, adopt reasonable treatment plans, and improve the survival rate of patients.

Clinical outcomes and predictors for 30-day readmissions of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography in the United States

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

We aimed to assess 30-day readmissions of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in the United States.

METHODS

The National Readmission Database was utilized from 2016 to 2020 to identify 30-day readmissions of ERCP. Hospitalization characteristics and outcomes were compared between index hospitalizations and readmissions. Predictors of 30-day readmission and mortality were also identified.

RESULTS

Between 2016 and 2020, 885 416 index hospitalizations underwent ERCP. Of these, 88 380 (10.15%) were readmitted within 30 days. Compared to index hospitalizations, 30-day readmissions had higher mean age (63.76 vs 60.8 years, P < 0.001) and proportion of patients with Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score ≥3 (48.26% vs 29.91%, P < 0.001). Sepsis was the most common readmission diagnosis. Increasing age, male gender, higher CCI scores, admissions at large metropolitan teaching hospitals, cholecystectomy on index hospitalization, biliary stenting, increasing length of stay (LOS) at index admission, post-ERCP pancreatitis, post-ERCP hemorrhage, and gastrointestinal tract perforation were independent predictors of 30-day readmissions. Furthermore, 30-day readmissions had higher odds of inpatient mortality (4.42% vs 1.66%, aOR 1.9, 95% CI: 1.79-2.01, P < 0.001) compared to index hospitalizations. However, we noted a shorter LOS (5.78 vs 6.22 days, mean difference 1.2, 95% CI: 1.12-1.28, P < 0.001) and lower total hospital charge ($71 076 vs $93 418, mean difference $31 452, 95% CI: 29 835-33 069, P < 0.001) for 30-day readmissions compared to index hospitalizations. Increasing age, higher CCI scores, increasing LOS, biliary stenting, and post-ERCP hemorrhage were independent predictors of inpatient mortality for 30-day readmissions.

CONCLUSION

After index ERCP, the 30-day remission rate was 10.15%. Compared to index hospitalizations, 30-day readmissions had higher odds of inpatient mortality.

UK ERCP sedation practices, patient comfort and endoscopist characteristics: National Endoscopy Database (NED) analysis on behalf of the JAG and BSG

Objectives

This analysis assessed current endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) practice within the UK, including use of sedation and patient comfort.

Methods

ERCPs conducted over 1 year (1 July 2021-30 June 2022) and uploaded to the National Endoscopy Database (NED) were analysed. The endoscopist workforce was classified by gender and specialty, use of sedation was analysed. Logistic regression was used to assess associations between patient age, gender and procedure indications on moderate to severe discomfort risk.

Results

27 812 ERCPs were performed by 491 endoscopists in 175 sites and uploaded to NED, an estimated 50% of total UK activity. 13% were training procedures, 94% of the endoscopists were male, with 72% being gastroenterologists. Most ERCPs were performed under conscious sedation (89%). The discomfort rate among patients aged 60-90 undergoing ERCP under conscious sedation was 4.2% (95% CI 3.9% to 4.5%), with only 5.5% (95% CI 5.2% to 5.9%) receiving greater than 5 mg midazolam or 100 µg fentanyl.Younger patients (<30 years) had a higher discomfort risk during conscious sedation ERCPs than those aged 70-79 (OR 3.0, 95% CI 2.2 to 4.3, p<0.05), while male patients had a lower discomfort risk compared with females (OR 0.9, 95% CI 0.8 to 1.0, p=0.05).Enhanced sedation (propofol or general anaesthetic) was associated with lower frequency of discomfort (0.3%, 95% CI 0.1 to 0.6) compared with conscious sedation (5.1%, 95% CI 4.9% to 5.4%, p<0.05).

Conclusions

Conscious sedation is well tolerated for most patients and prescribing practices have improved. However, triage of more patients, particularly young females, to enhanced sedation lists should be considered to reduce discomfort rates in future.

ERCP for bile duct stones across a national service, demonstrating a high requirement for repeat procedures

Background and study aims  Bile duct stones (BDS) represent approximately 50 % of the requirement for endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) within most services. Significant variation in outcome rates for BDS clearance at ERCP has been reported, and endoscopy societies have set standards for expected clearance rates. The aim of this study was to analyze procedure outcomes across a national service. Patients and methods  Using verified hospital episode statistics (HES) data for the National Health Service (NHS) in England, we analyzed all patients having first ERCPs for BDS from 2015 to 2017, and followed these patients for at least 2 years. Results  In total 37,468 patients underwent a first ERCP for BDS, with 69.8 % undergoing only one procedure. This figure of less than 70 % of BDS cleared at first ERCP is below the Key Performance Indicators as set by the British Society of Gastroenterology (> 75 %) and the European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (> 90 %). Of 55,556 ERCPs done for BDS, 52.9 % were repeat procedures, with 11,322 patients needing multiple procedures. For hospitals performing significant numbers of ERCPs (more than 600 for BDS during the study period) patients undergoing repeat ERCPs for BDS ranged from 9 % to 50 %. Conclusions  In this nationwide study, the performance at clearing BDS at first ERCP was suboptimal, with high numbers of repeat procedures required. This may have a negative impact on both patient outcomes and experience, and increase pressure on endoscopy services. Apparent variation of outcome between acute hospital care providers requires further analysis.

International cross-sectional survey on endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography training by the World Endoscopy Organization

OBJECTIVES

Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) has revolutionized the treatment of many pancreaticobiliary conditions. However, little is known about the global practices, training programs, and credentialing of the procedure. The aim of the current study is to address the above questions.

METHODS

This was an international cross-sectional survey conducted between October 2020 and May 2021. Participating countries were requested to complete an online survey on ERCP services and training.

RESULTS

Eighty-nine countries responded to the survey. There were significant increases in the proportion of ERCP services provided by the government (P < 0.0001), number of endoscopists per million of population (P < 0.0001), and number of institutions per million of population (P < 0.0001) from low to high human development index (HDI). Eighteen percent of the countries offer the procedure as part of a standard training program, 68.5% do not follow a standardized training curriculum. Risk factors for higher incidence and mortality from pancreatic cancers include higher HDI category, smaller population, a larger number of endoscopists proficient in ERCP, and lower number of institutions providing ERCP training. Countries with very high HDI have four times higher incidence and mortality from pancreatic cancers as compared to those with low HDI.

CONCLUSIONS

There is still an ongoing need for improving ERCP training in low to very high HDI countries. A structured training program is still lacking in many parts of the world. With increasing incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancers, particularly in high HDI countries, there is a need for further increasing facilities for ERCP training.

Evaluation of 30-day mortality in patients undergoing gastrointestinal endoscopy in a tertiary hospital: a 3-year retrospective survey

Objective

Despite international guidelines recommendations to use mortality as a quality criterion for gastrointestinal (GI) procedures, recent studies reporting these data are lacking. Our objective was to report death causes and rate following GI endoscopies in a tertiary university hospital.

Design

We retrospectively reviewed all GI procedures made between January 2017 and December 2019 in our tertiary hospital in Switzerland. Data from patients who died within 30 days of the procedure were recorded.

Results

Of 18 233 procedures, 251 patients died within 30 days following 345 (1.89%) procedures (244/9180 gastroscopies, 53/5826 colonoscopies, 23/2119 endoscopic ultrasound, 19/911 endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography, 6/197 percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomies). Median age was 70 years (IQR 61–79) and 173/251 (68.92%) were male. Median Charlson Comorbidity Index was 5 (IQR 3–7), and 305/345 procedures (88.4%) were undertaken on patients with an ASA score ≥3. Most frequent indications were suspected GI bleeding (162/345; 46.96%) and suspected cancer or tumourous staging (50/345; 14.49%). Major causes of death were oncological progression (72/251; 28.68%), cardiopulmonary failure or cardiac arrest of unkown origin (62/251; 24,7%) and liver failure (20/251; 7.96%). No deaths were caused by complications such as perforation or bleeding.

Conclusions

Progression of malignancies unrelated to the procedure was the leading cause of short-term death following a GI procedure. After improvements in periprocedural care in the last decades, we should focus on patient selection in this era of new oncological and intensive care therapies. Death rate as a quality criterion is subject to caution as it depends on indication, setting and risk benefit ratio.

Factors predicting 30-day mortality after ERCP in patients with inoperable malignant hilar biliary obstruction: a single tertiary referral centre experience and systematic review

Objective

There is a paucity of studies in the literature body evaluating short term outcomes following endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in patients with inoperable malignant hilar biliary obstruction (MHBO). We aimed to primarily evaluate 30-day mortality in these patients and secondarily, conduct a systematic review of studies reporting 30-day mortality.

Design

We conducted a retrospective analysis of all patients with inoperable MHBO who underwent ERCP at Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust between February 2015 and September 2020. Logistic regression models constructed from baseline patient data, the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were evaluated as predictors of 30-day mortality.

Results

Eighty-seven patients (49 males) with a mean age of 70.4 years (SD ±12.3) were included. Cholangiocarcinoma was the most common aetiology of MHBO affecting 35/87 (40.2%). Technical success was achieved in 72/87 (82.8%). The 30-day mortality rate was 25.3% (22/87), of which 16 were due to progression of underlying malignant disease. On multivariate analysis, only leucocytosis (OR 4.12, 95% CI 2.70 to 7.41, p=0.02) was an independent predictor of 30-day mortality. Neither mGPS (p=0.47) nor CCI with a cut-off value of ≥7 (p=0.06) were significant predictors of 30-day mortality.

Conclusion

We demonstrated that 30-day mortality following ERCP for inoperable MHBO remains high despite technical success. Further studies are warranted to identify patients most appropriate for intervention.

Controversies in ERCP: Technical aspects

The aim of the series of papers on controversies of biliopancreatic drainage procedures is to discuss pros and cons of the varying clinical practices and techniques in ERCP and EUS for drainage of biliary and pancreatic ducts. While the first part focuses on indications, clinical and imaging prerequisites prior to ERCP, sedation options, post-ERCP pancreatitis prophylaxis, and other related technical topics, the second part discusses specific procedural ERCP techniques including precut techniques and their timing as well as management algorithms. In addition, reviews on controversies in EUS-guided bile duct and pancreatic drainage procedures are under preparation.

Recent 5-Year Trend of Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiography in Korea Using National Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service Open Data

Background/Aims

The utilization of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is variable and largely dependent on a patient’s age, sex, and region. Herein we analyzed the publicly available Health Insurance Review and Assessment (HIRA) database with the aim of understanding the current status and trend of ERCP use in Korea.

Methods

Between 2013 and 2017, information regarding ERCP was acquired from the HIRA database using the procedural codes of the Korean Standard Classification of Disease. We analyzed the annual number of patients according to age in 10-year increments, sex, type of medical institution, and administrative division.

Results

The total number of patients and number of patients undergoing ERCP per 100,000 people increased from 40,516 and 78.6 in 2013 to 47,027 and 91.3 in 2017, respectively those aged 70 years accounted for the highest number, and the increase was the most prominent in those aged 80 years or older. Men underwent more ERCPs than women, except in younger patients (<40 years). Most ERCPs were performed at tertiary and general hospitals; however, the ratios between the two types of institutions were different according to the procedure. There were different patterns of patients associated with each procedure according to the administrative division. Therapeutic ERCP was performed more frequently than diagnostic ERCP.

Conclusions

Most procedures in Korea were therapeutic, and the increase in patients was most prominent in those aged 80 years or older. The utilization of ERCP increased markedly and varied depending on age, sex, type of medical institution, and region.

ACR Appropriateness Criteria® Radiologic Management of Biliary Obstruction

Biliary obstruction is a serious condition that can occur in the setting of both benign and malignant pathologies. In the setting of acute cholangitis, biliary decompression can be lifesaving; for patients with cancer who are receiving chemotherapy, untreated obstructive jaundice may lead to biochemical derangements that often preclude continuation of therapy unless biliary decompression is performed (see the ACR Appropriateness Criteria® topic on "Jaundice"). Recommended therapy including percutaneous decompression, endoscopic decompression, and/or surgical decompression is based on the etiology of the obstruction and patient factors including the individual's anatomy. The American College of Radiology Appropriateness Criteria are evidence-based guidelines for specific clinical conditions that are reviewed annually by a multidisciplinary expert panel. The guideline development and revision include an extensive analysis of current medical literature from peer reviewed journals and the application of well-established methodologies (RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method and Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation or GRADE) to rate the appropriateness of imaging and treatment procedures for specific clinical scenarios. In those instances where evidence is lacking or equivocal, expert opinion may supplement the available evidence to recommend imaging or treatment.

Higher volume providers are associated with improved outcomes following ERCP for the palliation of malignant biliary obstruction

BACKGROUND

Relieving malignant biliary obstruction improves quality of life and permits chemotherapy. Outcomes of endoscopic retrograde cholangio-pancratography(ERCP) in inoperable malignant biliary obstruction have been examined in a national cohort to establish factors associated with poor outcomes.

METHODS

Hospital Episode Statistics include diagnostic and procedural data for all NHS hospital attendances in England. Patients from 2006 to 2017 with a Hepaticopancreaticobiliary (HPB) malignancy who had undergone ERCP were studied. Patients undergoing a potentially curative operation were excluded. Associations between demographics, co-morbidities, unit ERCP volume and mortality were examined by logistic regression.

FINDINGS

39,702 patients were included; 49.4% were male; median age was 75 (IQR 66-88)years. Pancreatic cancer was the most common tumour (63.9%). Mortality was 4.1%, 9.7% and 19.1% for 7-day, in hospital and 30-day respectively. On multivariable analysis: men (OR 1.20(95%CI 1.14-1.26), p < 0.001); increasing age quintile 78-83(1.73(1.59-1.89), p < 0.001), >83(2.70(2.48-2.94),p < 0.001); most deprived quintile (1.21(1.11-1.32), p < 0.001); increasing co-morbidity score >20(3.36(2.94-3.84),p < 0.001); small bowel malignancy (1.45(1.22-1.72), p < 0.001), intrahepatic biliary malignancy(1.10(1.03-1.17), p = 0.005) and year of ERCP 2006/07 (1.37(1.22-1.55), p < 0.001) were associated with increased 30-day mortality. Extrahepatic biliary tree cancers (0.67(0.61-0.73), p<0.001), high volume providers of ERCP (>318 annually, 0.91(0.84-0.98), p = 0.01) and high volume of ERCP for malignant obstruction (>40 annually (0.91(0.85-0.98), p = 0.014) were negatively associated with 30-day mortality. Patients were less likely to require a second ERCP in high volume providers (>318, 8.0%) compared to low volume ((<204, 13.4%), p<0.001).

INTERPRETATION

Short term mortality in patients with malignant biliary obstruction following ERCP was high. 30-day mortality was positively associated with increasing age and co-morbidity, men, deprivation, and earlier year of ERCP and negatively with extrahepatic biliary tree cancer and high volume ERCP providers.

FUNDING

Internal funding only.

Trans-Gastric ERCP After Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Trans-oral endoscopic access to the pancreaticobiliary system is challenging after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB). Trans-gastric ERCP (TG-ERCP) has emerged as a viable option to manage patients with symptomatic post-RYBG choledocolithiasis. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to examine the outcomes of TG-ERCP to better define the risk-benefit ratio of this procedure and to guide clinical decision-making.

METHODS

A literature search was conducted to identify all reports on ERCP after RYGB. Pubmed, MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane databases were thoroughly consulted matching the terms "ERCP" AND "gastric bypass." Pooled prevalence of ERCP success rate, ERCP-related morbidity, post-procedural infectious complications, and overall morbidity were calculated using Freeman-Tukey double arcsine transformation and DerSimonian-Laird estimator in random effect meta-analysis. Heterogeneity among studies was evaluated using I²-index and Cochrane Q test. Meta-regression was used to address the effect of potential confounders.

RESULTS

Thirteen papers published between 2009 and 2017 matched the inclusion criteria. Eight hundred fifty patients undergoing 931 procedures were included. The most common clinical indications for TG-ERCP were biliary (90%) and pancreatic (10%). The majority of patients underwent an initial laparoscopic approach (90%). Same-day ERCP was successfully achieved in 703 cases (75.5%). Pooled prevalence of ERCP success rate, ERCP-related morbidity, post-procedural infectious complications, and overall morbidity were 99% (95% CI = 98-100%), 3.1% (95% CI = 1.0-5.8%), 3.4% (95% CI = 1.7-5.5%), and 14.2% (95% CI = 8.5-20.8%), respectively.

CONCLUSION

TG-ERCP is a safe and effective therapeutic option in patients with symptomatic post-RYGB choledocolithiasis.

ERCP-related perforations: a population-based study of incidence, mortality, and risk factors

Background

Perforations related to endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) are rare but feared adverse events with highly reported morbidity and mortality rates. The aim was to evaluate the incidence and outcome of ERCP-related perforations and to identify risk factors for death due to perforations in a population-based study.

Methods

Between May 2005 and December 2013, a total of 52,140 ERCPs were registered in GallRiks, a Swedish nationwide, population-based registry. A total of 376 (0.72%) were registered as perforations or extravasation of contrast during ERCP or as perforation in the 30-day follow-up. The patients with perforation were divided into fatal and non-fatal groups and analyzed for mortality risk factors. The case volume of centers and endoscopists were divided into the upper quartile (Q4) and the lower three quartile (Q1–3) groups. Furthermore, fatal group patients’ records were reviewed.

Results

Death within 90 days after ERCP-related perforations or at the index hospitalization occurred in 20% (75 out of 376) for all perforations and 0.1% (75 out of 52,140) for all ERCPs. The independent risk factors for death after perforation were malignancy (OR 11.2, 95% CI 5.8–21.6), age over 80 years (OR 3.8, 95% CI 2.0–7.4), and sphincterotomy in the pancreatic duct (OR 2.8, 95% CI 1.1–7.5). In Q4 centers, the mortality was similar with or without pancreatic duct sphincterotomy (14% vs. 13%, p = 1.0), but in Q1–3 centers mortality was higher (45% vs. 21%, p = 0.024).

Conclusions

ERCP-related perforations are severe adverse events with low incidence (0.7%) and high mortality rate up to 20%. Malignancy, age over 80 years, and sphincterotomy in the pancreatic duct increase the risk to die after a perforation. The risk of a fatal outcome in perforations after pancreatic duct sphincterotomy was reduced when occurred at a Q4-center. In the case of a complicated perforation a transfer to a Q4-center may be considered.

Early Warning Models to Estimate the 30-Day Mortality Risk After Stent Placement for Patients with Malignant Biliary Obstruction

PURPOSE

To develop, validate, and compare early warning models of the 30-day mortality risk for patients with malignant biliary obstruction (MBO) undergoing percutaneous transhepatic biliary stent placement (PTBS).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Between January 2013 and October 2018, this multicenter retrospective study included 299 patients with MBOs who underwent PTBS. The training set consisted of 166 patients from four cohorts, and another two independent cohorts were allocated as external validation sets A and B with 75 patients and 58 patients, respectively. A logistic model and an artificial neural network (ANN) model were developed to predict the risk of 30-day mortality after PTBS. The predictive performance of these two models was validated internally and externally.

RESULTS

The ANN model had higher values of area under the curve than the logistic model in the training set (0.819 vs 0.797), especially in the validation sets A (0.802 vs 0.714) and B (0.732 vs 0.568). Both models had high accuracy in the three sets (75.9-83.1%). Along with a high specificity, the ANN model improved the sensitivity. The net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement also demonstrated that the ANN model led to improvements in predictive ability compared with the logistic model.

CONCLUSIONS

Early warning models were proposed to predict the risk of 30-day mortality after PTBS in patients with MBO. The ANN model has higher accuracy and better generalizability than the logistic model.

Nationwide improvement in outcomes of emergency admission for ulcerative colitis in England, 2005-2013

BACKGROUND

The UK IBD Audit Programme reported improved inpatient care processes for ulcerative colitis (UC) between 2005 and 2013. There are no independent data describing national or institutional trends in patient outcomes over this period.

AIM

To assess the association between the outcome of emergency admission for UC and year of treatment.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of hospital administrative data, focused on all emergency admissions to English public hospitals with a discharge diagnosis of UC. We extracted case mix factors (age, sex, co-morbidity, emergency bed days in last year, deprivation status), outcomes of index admission (death and first surgery), 30-day emergency readmissions (all-cause, and selected causes) and outcome of readmission.

RESULTS

There were 765 deaths and 3837 unplanned first operations in 44 882 emergency admissions, with 5311 emergency readmissions (with a further 171 deaths and 517 first operations). Case mix adjusted odds of death for any given year were 9% lower (OR 0.91, 95% CI: 0.89-0.94), and that for emergency surgery 3% lower (OR 0.97, 95% CI: 0.95-0.98) than the preceding year. Results were robust to sensitivity analysis (admissions lasting ≥4 days). There was no reduction in odds for all-cause readmission, but rates for venous thromboembolism declined significantly. Analysis of institutional-level metrics across 136 providers showed a stepwise reduction in outliers for mortality and unplanned surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk of death and unplanned surgery for UC patients admitted as emergencies declined consistently, as did unexplained variation between hospitals. Risk of readmission was unchanged (over 1 in 10). Multiple factors are likely to explain these nationwide trends.

Impact of the Joint Advisory Group on Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (JAG) on endoscopy services in the UK and beyond

The Joint Advisory Group on Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (JAG) was initially established in 1994 to standardise endoscopy training across specialties. Over the last two decades, the position of JAG has evolved to meet its current role of quality assuring all aspects of endoscopy in the UK to provide the highest quality, patient-centred care. Drivers such as changes to healthcare agenda, national audits, advances in research and technology and the advent of population-based cancer screening have underpinned this shift in priority. Over this period, JAG has spearheaded various quality assurance initiatives with support from national stakeholders. These have led to the achievement of notable milestones in endoscopy quality assurance, particularly in the three major areas of: (1) endoscopy training, (2) accreditation of endoscopy services (including the Global Rating Scale), and (3) accreditation of screening endoscopists. These developments have changed the landscape of UK practice, serving as a model to promote excellence in endoscopy. This review provides a summary of JAG initiatives and assesses the impact of JAG on training and endoscopy services within the UK and beyond.

Reduced risk of emergency admission for colorectal cancer associated with the introduction of bowel cancer screening across England: a retrospective national cohort study

AIM

We wanted to find out if roll-out of the bowel cancer screening programme (BCSP) across England was associated with a reduced risk of emergency hospital admission for people presenting with colorectal cancer (CRC) during this period.

METHOD

This is a retrospective cohort study of 27 763 incident cases of CRC over a 1-year period during the roll-out of screening across parts of England. The primary outcome was the number of emergency (unplanned) hospital admissions during the diagnostic pathway. The primary exposure was to those living in an area where the BCSP was active at the time of diagnosis. Patients were categorized into three exposure groups: BCSP not active (reference group), BCSP active < 6 months or BCSP active ≥ 6 months.

RESULTS

The risk of emergency admission for CRC in England was associated with increasing age, female gender, comorbidity and social deprivation. After adjusting for these factors in logistic regression, the odds ratio (OR) for emergency admission in patients diagnosed ≥ 6 months after the start-up of local screening was 0.83 (CI 0.76-0.90). The magnitude of risk reduction was greatest for cases of screening age (OR 0.75; CI 0.63-0.90) but this effect was apparent also for cases outside the 60-69-year age group (OR 0.85; CI 0.77-0.94). Living in an area with active BCSP conferred no reduction in risk of emergency admission for people diagnosed with oesophagogastric cancer during the same period.

CONCLUSION

The start-up of bowel cancer screening in England was associated with a substantial reduction in the risk of emergency admission for CRC in people of all ages. This suggests that the roll-out of the programme had indirect benefits beyond those related directly to participation in screening.

Association Between Endoscopist and Center Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography Volume With Procedure Success and Adverse Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) has become a predominantly therapeutic intervention with a resultant increase in complexity. The relationship between ERCP volume and outcomes is unclear. We aimed to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis assessing the relationship between endoscopist and center ERCP volume with ERCP success and adverse event (AE) rates.

METHODS

A comprehensive search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials was conducted from inception to January 2017. Studies providing outcomes stratified by endoscopist and/or center volume were included in the final analysis. Endoscopist/center volume was stratified as low volume (LV) and high volume (HV). The definition of ERCP success varied between studies. The overall AE rate was a composite rate including pancreatitis, perforation, and bleeding.

RESULTS

A literature search resulted in 1264 citations. Of those, 13 articles (n = 59,437 ERCPs) met inclusion criteria. LV endoscopist (<25 to <156 annual ERCPs) and center (<87 to <200 annual ERCPs) definitions varied between studies. HV endoscopists were significantly more likely to achieve ERCP success compared with LV endoscopists (odds ratio [OR], 1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-2.1). HV centers were significantly more likely to achieve ERCP success (OR, 2; 95% CI, 1.6-2.5). The post-ERCP AE risk was lower for HV endoscopists (OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.5-0.8) but not HV centers (OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.3-1.5).

CONCLUSIONS

This study identifies a significant relationship between increasing endoscopist and center ERCP volume with overall procedure success. Increasing endoscopist volume also was associated with a decreased AE rate. Given these compelling findings, we propose that providers and payers consider consolidating ERCP to HV endoscopists to improve ERCP outcomes and value.

Indomethacin and diclofenac in the prevention of post-ERCP pancreatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective controlled trials

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Diclofenac and indomethacin are the most studied drugs for preventing post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP). However, there are no prospective, randomized multicenter trials with a sufficient number of patients for correct evaluation of their efficacy. Our aim was to evaluate all prospective trials published in full text that studied the efficacy of diclofenac or indomethacin and were controlled with placebo or non-treatment for the prevention of PEP in adult patients undergoing ERCP.

METHODS

Systematic search of databases (PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane) for relevant studies published from inception to 30 June 2016.

RESULTS

Our meta-analysis of 4741 patients from 17 trials showed that diclofenac or indomethacin significantly decreased the risk ratio (RR) of PEP to 0.60 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.46-0.78; P = .0001), number needed to treat (NNT) was 20, and the reduction of RR of moderate to severe PEP was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.43-0.97; P = .0339). The efficacy of indomethacin compared with diclofenac was similar (P = .98). The efficacy of indomethacin or diclofenac did not differ according to timing (P = .99) or between patients with average-risk and high-risk for PEP (P = .6923). The effect of non-rectal administration of indomethacin or diclofenac was not significant (P = .1507), but the rectal route was very effective (P = .0005) with an NNT of 19. The administration of indomethacin or diclofenac was avoided in patients with renal failure. Substantial adverse events were not detected.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of rectally administered diclofenac or indomethacin before or closely after ERCP is inexpensive and safe and is recommended in every patient (without renal failure) undergoing ERCP. (Registration number: CRD42016042726, http://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/.).

ERCP development in the largest developing country: a national survey from China in 2013

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The ERCP volume in developed countries has decreased recently, whereas the ERCP trend is unknown in developing countries. This study aimed to evaluate the ERCP development in China between 2006 and 2012.

METHODS

All hospitals performing ERCP in mainland China in 2012 participated in an online survey. Data on ERCP infrastructure, volume, indication, and adverse events were collected and compared with those in a previous national survey and in developed countries.

RESULTS

From 2006 to 2012 the number of hospitals performing ERCP in China increased from 470 to 1156. The total ERCP volume increased from 63,787 to 195,643, of which >95% were therapeutic. The ERCP rate in China (14.4 per 100,000 inhabitants) in 2012 was still much lower than that in developed countries. There was significant imbalance between different regions (1.3-99.1 per 100,000 inhabitants). The median ERCP volume per hospital decreased from 80 (interquartile range [IQR], 31-150) in 2006 to 52 (IQR, 20-146) in 2012. The median volume of the 686 hospitals that started ERCP after 2006 was 31.5 (IQR, 11-82). The post-ERCP adverse event rate in 2012 was comparable between hospitals in terms of volume (≥500 or <500 per year: 5.8% vs 5.6%) and practice durations (starting ERCP before or after 2006: 5.5% vs 5.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

ERCP has developed considerably in China in recent years. Despite low annual volume, the hospitals starting ERCP after 2006 have acceptable adverse event rates and will be promising and important sources of ERCP development in China.

Trends in the Use of Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography for the Management of Chronic Pancreatitis in the United States

GOALS

The aim of this study was to characterize current trends in the use of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in the United States for patients hospitalized with chronic pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND

Historically, ERCP was the primary tool for diagnostic and therapeutic management of chronic pancreatitis. With increased availability of magnetic resonance imaging and endoscopic ultrasound, indications for ERCP are being redefined.

STUDY

We performed a retrospective cohort study using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 1998 to 2010. We identified patients with a primary discharge diagnosis of chronic pancreatitis who underwent ERCP. We excluded patients diagnosed with biliary, gallbladder, or pancreatic neoplasm and patients who underwent gallbladder or pancreatic operation during the same admission. We analyzed patient and hospital characteristics, length of stay, and in-hospital mortality, and adjusted for weighted sample schema.

RESULTS

During the study period, 29,318 patients with chronic pancreatitis (mean age 52 y, 57.2% female) underwent ERCP during their hospitalization. The majority of patients were white (56.1%). The majority of procedures were performed at large (72.4%), urban (95.2%), and academic (69.0%) hospitals. Mean hospital charges were $32,929 (SE= $1605). Mean length of stay was 6 days (SE=0.3), with in-hospital mortality of 0.76%. Over the study period, the number of procedures has decreased significantly (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In the United States, ERCP has been an important diagnostic and therapeutic tool for chronic pancreatitis. Over the last decade, ERCP has become an uncommon inpatient procedure for chronic pancreatitis.

Hospital volume status is related to technical failure and all-cause mortality following ERCP for benign disease

BACKGROUND

Population-based data on hospital procedure volume and outcome of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) are limited.

AIMS

To investigate procedural failure, early re-admission, and all-cause mortality following ERCP performed due to benign disease and to examine their relation to hospital procedure volume.

METHODS

All patients with a first ERCP in 2005-2008 in Sweden were identified from the Swedish Hospital Discharge Registry. Data on indication, admission method, length of stay (LOS), and comorbid illness were extracted. Patients were linked to the Swedish Death and Cancer Registries. Factors associated with failed index ERCP, early re-admission, and all-cause mortality were identified by multiple logistic analyses.

RESULTS

Overall, 12,695 first ERCPs for benign disease were analyzed. The 30-day re-admission rate was 13 % and all-cause 30-day mortality 2.2 %. Failed index ERCP was more common in low-volume than high-volume institutions (p = 0.007). In logistic regression analysis, low hospital procedure volume was an independent predictor of failed index ERCP (odds ratio (OR) 2.72 vs. high), but not 30-day re-admission (p > 0.05). LOS was longer in cases of procedural failure (p < 0.001). All-cause 30-day mortality was independently related to low hospital ERCP volume (OR 1.41 vs. high) and failed ERCP (OR 5.65 vs. successful).

CONCLUSION

In this population-based cohort of first ERCPs due to benign disease, lower hospital ERCP volume was related to failed ERCP, which, in turn, was associated with longer LOS. Failed ERCP and lower hospital procedure volume were associated with poor survival, but not with early re-admission following index ERCP. These findings may have implications for service development.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of endoscopic ultrasound versus magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography in patients with suspected common bile duct stones

BACKGROUND

Patients with suspected common bile duct (CBD) stones are often diagnosed using endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), an invasive procedure with risk of significant complications. Using endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) or Magnetic Resonance CholangioPancreatography (MRCP) first to detect CBD stones can reduce the risk of unnecessary procedures, cut complications and may save costs.

AIM

This study sought to compare the cost-effectiveness of initial EUS or MRCP in patients with suspected CBD stones.

METHODS

This study is a model based cost-utility analysis estimating mean costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) per patient from the perspective of the UK National Health Service (NHS) over a 1 year time horizon. A decision tree model was constructed and populated with probabilities, outcomes and cost data from published sources, including one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Using MRCP to select patients for ERCP was less costly than using EUS to select patients or proceeding directly to ERCP ($1299 versus $1753 and $1781, respectively), with similar QALYs accruing to each option (0.998, 0.998 and 0.997 for EUS, MRCP and direct ERCP, respectively). Initial MRCP was the most cost-effective option with the highest monetary net benefit, and this result was not sensitive to model parameters. MRCP had a 61% probability of being cost-effective at $29,000, the maximum willingness to pay for a QALY commonly used in the UK.

CONCLUSION

From the perspective of the UK NHS, MRCP was the most cost-effective test in the diagnosis of CBD stones.

Variation in gastroscopy rate in English general practice and outcome for oesophagogastric cancer: retrospective analysis of Hospital Episode Statistics

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether variation in gastroscopy rates in English general practice populations is associated with inequality in oesophagogastric (OG) cancer outcome.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study of the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) dataset for England (2006-2008) linked to death registration.

METHODS

were validated using independent local and national data. General practices with new cases of OG cancer were included. Practices were grouped into tertiles according to standardised elective gastroscopy rate per capita (low, medium or high). Outcome measures for cancer cases were: emergency admission during diagnostic pathway, major surgical resection and mortality at 1 year. Covariates were: age group, gender, comorbidity, general practice average deprivation and patient deprivation.

RESULTS

22 488 incident cases of OG cancer from 6513 general practices were identified. Patients registered with the low tertile group of practices had the lowest rate of major surgery, highest rate of emergency admission and highest mortality. The inequality was widest for the most socioeconomically deprived cases. After adjustment for covariates in logistic regression, the gastroscopy rate (low, medium or high) at the patient's general practice was an independent predictor of emergency admission, major surgery and mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

There is wide variation in the rate of gastroscopy among general practice populations in England. On average, OG cancer patients belonging to practices with the lowest rates of gastroscopy are at greater risk of poor outcome. These findings suggest that initiatives or current guidelines aimed at limiting the use of gastroscopy may adversely affect cancer outcomes.

Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography: is the centre better? The case against centralisation of ERCP services

More than 48 000 endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatographies (ERCP) are performed in the UK per annum; the majority within district general hospitals. The proposal for centralisation of ERCP services is based on evidence that technical success, length of stay and complication rates are related to the numbers of procedures performed. Local units wishing to continue their ERCP practice, must demonstrate that they are performing sufficient numbers of procedures in a safe, timely and competent fashion.

Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography: utilisation and outcomes in a 10-year population-based cohort

OBJECTIVE

To determine utilisation of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP); incidence of inpatient admissions for complications occurring within 30 days of ERCP and risk factors for procedural-related complications, in a population-based study.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Olmsted County, Minnesota.

PARTICIPANTS

All adult residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, who underwent ERCP from 1997 to 2006.

INTERVENTIONS

Diagnostic and therapeutic ERCPs were assessed.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Patient and procedural characteristics and complications within 30 days; and rates of ERCP utilisation and unplanned admissions and risk factors for admissions.

RESULTS

In 10 years, 1072 ERCPs were performed on 827 individual patients. Average utilisation of ERCP was 83.1 ERCPs/100 000 persons/year, with an increase from 58 to 104.8 ERCPs/100 000 persons/year over time, driven by increases in therapeutic procedures. Within 30 days after 236 procedures, 62 admissions were definitely related to the index ERCP. The complication rate was 5.3%, including pancreatitis (26, 2.4%), infection/cholangitis (16, 1.5%), bleeding (15, 1.4%) and perforation (4, 0.37%). 30-day mortality was 2.4%, none of which was directly related to the ERCP or complications thereof. Risk factors identified through multivariate analysis to be associated with adverse events included: age <45 years (p=0.0498); body mass index ≥35 (p=0.0024); pancreatic duct cannulation (p=0.0026); outpatient procedure (p<0.0001); intraprocedure sphincterotomy bleeding (p<0.0001); difficulty grade (p=0.115) and patient's first ERCP (p=0.0394).

LIMITATIONS

Retrospective study.

CONCLUSIONS

Population utilisation of ERCP rose during the study period, specifically in therapeutic procedures. Admissions within 30 days of ERCP are common but often unrelated. Complications of ERCP remain infrequent and deaths quite unusual.

A multicentre study to determine the incidence, demographics, aetiology and outcomes of 6-day emergency readmission following day-case endoscopy

BACKGROUND

Emergency readmission after elective procedures is a quality indicator of healthcare delivery, but data for endoscopy are limited.

OBJECTIVES

Using hospital episode statistics (HES) registration systems and a multicentre audit to describe outcomes of emergency readmission following elective endoscopy.

METHODS

Emergency readmissions (April 2008-2009) within 6 days of an elective day-case upper-GI endoscopy (UE) and lower GI endoscopy (LE) were subjected to a multicentre retrospective audit (north-west of England) following the identification of cases from routinely coded hospital administrative data from HES.

RESULTS

Of 29 868 day cases, there were 235 readmissions, of which 147 (63%) were endoscopy related. The overall endoscopy readmission rate was 0.5% and the highest for therapeutic UE (1.74%; P=0.0001). The rates for therapeutic LE, diagnostic UE and LE were 0.6, 0.5 and 0.4%, respectively. The incidence of readmission was 0.2% because of cardiorespiratory event, 0.14% for symptoms and 0.08, 0.03, 0.02 and 0.016%, respectively, for bleeding, perforation, obstruction and nonrespiratory sepsis. Management was simple observation in 84.4%, intravenous antibiotics in 7.5%, surgery in 4.8% and repeat endoscopy in 2.7%. Although 24.5% were short-stay discharges, the mean hospital stay was 8.2 days. All-cause 30-day mortality was low at 0.06%, but was considerably higher in readmitted patients at 6.8% (P=0.0001).

CONCLUSION

Novel insights into readmission rates can be gained following endoscopy using a combination of commercial analytical tools to examine HES data to identify eligible readmitted cases; multicentred patient-level audit readmission rates varied predictably across procedure types with cardiorespiratory events, the major cause. The risk of mortality in readmitted patients was significant.

Quality assurance for gastrointestinal endoscopy

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review concerns quality assurance for gastrointestinal endoscopic procedures, especially colonoscopy and will emphasize research and guidelines published since January 2011. Important articles from previous years have been included for background.

RECENT FINDINGS

Critical lapses in endoscope processing and administration of intravenous sedation alerted us to the infection risk of endoscopy. Increases in cost of colonoscopy, evidence for overuse and studies demonstrating missed cancers have led some to question the value of endoscopy. Despite these setbacks, the National Polyp Study (NPS) consortium published their long-term follow-up of the original NPS patients and confirmed that colonoscopy with polyp removal can reduce the risk of colorectal cancer for an extended period. In this article, we will focus on ways to improve the value of outpatient colonoscopy.

SUMMARY

The United States national quality improvement agenda recently became organized into a more coordinated effort spearheaded by several public and private entities. They comprise the infrastructure by which performance measures are developed and implemented as accountability standards. Understanding wherein a gastroenterology (GI) practice fits into this infrastructure and learning ways we can improve our endoscopic practice is important for physicians who provide this vital service to patients. This article will provide a roadmap for developing a quality assurance program for endoscopic practice.

The ERCP quality network benchmarking project: a preliminary comparison of practice in UK and USA

OBJECTIVE

The Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) Quality Network is a voluntary system for submission of data to generate individual report cards and benchmarking. The aim of this study was to compare aspects of ERCP practice between USA and UK participants.

DESIGN

Analysis was limited to USA and UK based endoscopists who had each entered more than 30 cases. A number of practice and performance measures were studied including, rates of deep biliary cannulation, sedation use and success in bile duct stone removal.

SETTING AND PATIENTS

Patients attending for routine and emergency ERCP in participating tertiary and secondary care units in the UK and USA.

RESULTS

61 US endoscopists performed 18 182 procedures and 16 UK endoscopists 3172, respectively. The UK participants performed less complex procedures as judged by the accepted complexity grading system, 8% versus 35% at grade 3, p<0.001. There was a significantly greater use of sedation as opposed to anaesthesia in the UK 97% versus 34%, p<0.001. UK deep biliary cannulation rate was 93% versus 97%, p<0.001. For small bile duct stones (<10 mm) the UK success rate was 96% compared with 99%, p<0.001.

CONCLUSION

The present data, while not purporting to be an accurate representation of practice in either country, documents good technical success in both cohorts, albeit significantly better in the USA. The inexorable drive to greater accountability and transparency of outcomes in endoscopic practice is likely to lead to increased participation in subsequent benchmarking projects.