External validation of a model determining risk of neoplastic progression of Barrett's esophagus in a cohort of U.S. veterans

The Association Between Obesity and Malignant Progression of Barrett's Esophagus: A Systematic Review and Dose-Response Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Obesity is a risk factor for both Barrett's esophagus (BE) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). However, it is unclear whether obesity drives the malignant progression of BE. We aimed to assess whether obesity is associated with high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or cancer in patients with BE.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE from inception through April 2024 for studies reporting the effect of body mass index (BMI) on the progression of nondysplastic BE or low-grade dysplasia (LGD) to HGD or EAC. A 2-stage dose-response meta-analysis was performed to estimate the dose-response relationship between BMI with malignant progression. Study quality was appraised using a modified Newcastle-Ottawa scale.

RESULTS

Twenty studies reported data on 38,565 patients (74.4% male) in total, of whom 1684 patients were diagnosed with HGD/cancer. Nineteen studies were considered moderate to high quality. Eight cohort studies reported data on 6647 male patients with baseline nondysplastic BE/LGD, of whom 555 progressed to HGD/EAC (pooled annual rate of progression, 0.02%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.01%-0.03%), and 1992 female patients with baseline nondysplastic BE/LGD, with 110 progressors (pooled annual rate of progression, 0.01%; 95% CI, 0.01%-0.02%). There was no significant difference in pooled annual rate of progression between males and females (P = .15). Each 5-kg/m2 increase in BMI was associated with a 6% increase in the risk of malignant progression (adjusted odds ratio, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02-1.10; P < .001; I2= 0%).

CONCLUSION

Our meta-analysis provides some evidence that obesity as measured by BMI is associated with malignant progression of BE with a dose-response relationship. This finding requires confirmation in future high-quality cohort studies. Future risk prediction models could incorporate measures of obesity to potentially improve risk stratification in patients with BE. PROSPERO, Number: CRD42017051046.

Development and validation of a prediction model for histologic progression in patients with nondysplastic Barrett's esophagus

OBJECTIVES

Patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE) are at risk of progression to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). We developed a model to predict histologic progression in patients with nondysplastic BE (NDBE).

METHODS

A longitudinal study in three referral centers was performed between January 2010 and December 2019. As progression to low-grade dysplasia (LGD) can be considered an indication for ablative therapy, the study end-point was histopathologic progression to LGD, high-grade dysplasia, or EAC at 3 years after diagnosis. We used logistic regression to create the model. Seventy percent of the cohort were used to stem the model and the remaining 30% for internal validation.

RESULTS

A total of 542 patients were included, 69.4% of whom were male, mean age 62.2 years. Long-segment BE at index endoscopy was diagnosed in 20.8% of the patients. After a mean follow-up of 6.7 years, 133 patients (24.5%) had histologic progression. Our model identified a neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (odds ratio [OR] 2.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.77-2.32, P < 0.001), BE length (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.09-1.36, P < 0.001), age (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.05, P = 0.02), smoking (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.09-2.75, P = 0.04), and renal failure (OR 1.51, 95% CI 0.93-2.43, P = 0.07) as predictors of histologic progression at 3 years. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of this model were 0.88 and 0.76 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This novel, internally validated model may predict histologic progression, even in patients with NDBE who generally have low rates of progression over time, and may contribute to enhanced patient selection for more intense surveillance programs.

Categorizing Risks within Barrett's Esophagus To Guide Surveillance and Interception; Suggesting a New Framework

Barrett's esophagus is a precancerous condition that can progress in a stepwise manner to dysplasia and eventually esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Once diagnosed, patients with Barrett's esophagus are kept on surveillance to detect progression so that timely intervention can occur with endoscopic therapy. Several demographic and clinical risk factors are known to increase progression toward EAC, such as longer Barrett's segments, and these patients are kept on tighter surveillance. While p53 IHC has been advocated as an adjunct to histopathologic diagnosis, use of this biomarker is variable, and no other molecular factors are currently applied. Given the new evidence available, it is time to consider whether other risk factors or tools could be applied in clinical practice to decide on closer or attenuated surveillance. In this commentary, we summarize the most relevant risk factors for Barrett's esophagus progression, highlight the most promising novel risk stratification tools-including nonendoscopic triage and commercial biomarker panels, and propose a new framework suggesting how to incorporate risk stratification into clinical practice.