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Peleg N, Ringel Y, Shamah S, Schmilovitz-Weiss H, Leshno M, Benjaminov F, Shinhar N, Gingold-Belfer R, Dotan I, Sapoznikov B. Development and validation of a prediction model for histologic progression in patients with nondysplastic Barrett's esophagus. Dig Endosc 2023; 35:718-725. [PMID: 36567638 DOI: 10.1111/den.14505] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2022] [Accepted: 12/22/2022] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE) are at risk of progression to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). We developed a model to predict histologic progression in patients with nondysplastic BE (NDBE). METHODS A longitudinal study in three referral centers was performed between January 2010 and December 2019. As progression to low-grade dysplasia (LGD) can be considered an indication for ablative therapy, the study end-point was histopathologic progression to LGD, high-grade dysplasia, or EAC at 3 years after diagnosis. We used logistic regression to create the model. Seventy percent of the cohort were used to stem the model and the remaining 30% for internal validation. RESULTS A total of 542 patients were included, 69.4% of whom were male, mean age 62.2 years. Long-segment BE at index endoscopy was diagnosed in 20.8% of the patients. After a mean follow-up of 6.7 years, 133 patients (24.5%) had histologic progression. Our model identified a neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (odds ratio [OR] 2.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.77-2.32, P < 0.001), BE length (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.09-1.36, P < 0.001), age (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.05, P = 0.02), smoking (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.09-2.75, P = 0.04), and renal failure (OR 1.51, 95% CI 0.93-2.43, P = 0.07) as predictors of histologic progression at 3 years. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of this model were 0.88 and 0.76 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSION This novel, internally validated model may predict histologic progression, even in patients with NDBE who generally have low rates of progression over time, and may contribute to enhanced patient selection for more intense surveillance programs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Noam Peleg
- Division of Gastroenterology, Rabin Medical Center, Beilinson and Hasharon Hospitals, Petah Tikva, Israel
- Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Yehuda Ringel
- Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Meir Medical Center, Kefar Sava, Israel
| | - Steven Shamah
- Division of Gastroenterology, Rabin Medical Center, Beilinson and Hasharon Hospitals, Petah Tikva, Israel
- Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Hemda Schmilovitz-Weiss
- Division of Gastroenterology, Rabin Medical Center, Beilinson and Hasharon Hospitals, Petah Tikva, Israel
- Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Moshe Leshno
- Coller School of Management, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Fabiana Benjaminov
- Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Meir Medical Center, Kefar Sava, Israel
| | - Nadav Shinhar
- Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Meir Medical Center, Kefar Sava, Israel
| | - Rachel Gingold-Belfer
- Division of Gastroenterology, Rabin Medical Center, Beilinson and Hasharon Hospitals, Petah Tikva, Israel
- Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Iris Dotan
- Division of Gastroenterology, Rabin Medical Center, Beilinson and Hasharon Hospitals, Petah Tikva, Israel
- Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Boris Sapoznikov
- Division of Gastroenterology, Rabin Medical Center, Beilinson and Hasharon Hospitals, Petah Tikva, Israel
- Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
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Honing J, Fitzgerald RC. Categorizing Risks within Barrett's Esophagus To Guide Surveillance and Interception; Suggesting a New Framework. Cancer Prev Res (Phila) 2023; 16:313-320. [PMID: 37259801 PMCID: PMC10234311 DOI: 10.1158/1940-6207.capr-22-0447] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2022] [Revised: 03/08/2023] [Accepted: 04/05/2023] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
Barrett's esophagus is a precancerous condition that can progress in a stepwise manner to dysplasia and eventually esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Once diagnosed, patients with Barrett's esophagus are kept on surveillance to detect progression so that timely intervention can occur with endoscopic therapy. Several demographic and clinical risk factors are known to increase progression toward EAC, such as longer Barrett's segments, and these patients are kept on tighter surveillance. While p53 IHC has been advocated as an adjunct to histopathologic diagnosis, use of this biomarker is variable, and no other molecular factors are currently applied. Given the new evidence available, it is time to consider whether other risk factors or tools could be applied in clinical practice to decide on closer or attenuated surveillance. In this commentary, we summarize the most relevant risk factors for Barrett's esophagus progression, highlight the most promising novel risk stratification tools-including nonendoscopic triage and commercial biomarker panels, and propose a new framework suggesting how to incorporate risk stratification into clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Judith Honing
- Early Cancer Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
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Chan MW, Pouw RE. Risk-stratification models for Barrett's esophagus: Will we get to the perfect classifier? Gastrointest Endosc 2022; 95:1123-1125. [PMID: 35410723 DOI: 10.1016/j.gie.2022.02.028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2022] [Accepted: 02/20/2022] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Man Wai Chan
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Amsterdam Gastroenterology Endocrinology and Metabolism, Cancer Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Roos E Pouw
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Amsterdam Gastroenterology Endocrinology and Metabolism, Cancer Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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