Wang Y, Shan X, Dong H, Li M, Yue Y. Prediction for 2-year mortality of metastatic ovarian cancer patients based on surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database.
Front Surg 2022;
9:974536. [PMID:
36338661 PMCID:
PMC9632980 DOI:
10.3389/fsurg.2022.974536]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2022] [Accepted: 08/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Aim
To establish prediction models for 2-year overall survival of ovarian cancer patients with metastasis.
Methods
In total, 4,929 participants from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were randomly divided into the training set (n = 3,451) and the testing set (n = 1,478). Univariate and multivariable regression were conducted in the training set to identify predictors for 2-year overall survival of metastatic ovarian cancer patients. The C-index was calculated for assessing the performance of the models. The nomogram for the model was plotted. The prediction value of the model was validated in the testing set. Subgroup analysis were performed concerning surgery and chemotherapy status of patients and the metastatic site of ovarian cancer in the testing set. The calibration curves were plotted and the decision curve analysis (DCA) were conducted.
Results
At the end of follow-up, 2,587 patients were survived and 2,342 patients were dead within 2 years. The 2-year survival rate was 52.5%. The prediction models were constructed based on predictors including age, radiation, surgery and chemotherapy, CA125, and bone, liver, and lung metastasis. The prediction model for 2-year overall survival of ovarian cancer patients with metastasis showed good predictive ability with the C-index of the model of 0.719 (95% CI: 0.706–0.731) in the training set and 0.718 (95% CI: 0.698–0.737) in the testing set. In terms of patients with bone metastasis, the C-index was 0.740 (95% CI: 0.652–0.828) for predicting the 2-year overall survival of ovarian cancer patients. The C-index was 0.836 (95% CI: 0.694–0.979) in patients with brain metastasis, 0.755 (95% CI: 0.721–0.788) in patients with liver metastasis and 0.725 (95% CI: 0.686–0.764) in those with lung metastasis for predicting the 2-year overall survival of ovarian cancer patients.
Conclusion
The models showed good predictive performance for 2-year overall survival of metastatic ovarian cancer patients.
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