Species distribution models as a tool for early detection of the invasive Raphidiopsis raciborskii in European lakes

Defense against Paramecium predation via long filament morphology favors the survival of Raphidiopsis raciborskii populations

Raphidiopsis blooms are notorious for cyanotoxin formation and strong invasiveness, threatening the stability of aquatic ecosystems and human health. The protozoa Paramecium can potentially serve as an organism for controlling Raphidiopsis blooms owing to its grazing effect. However, the grazing ability of Paramecium is largely determined by the size of the prey, and the population of Raphidiopsis consists of filaments of varying lengths and sizes. The selective grazing behavior of Paramecium toward short-length or small-sized filaments in the Raphidiopsis population, as opposed to long filaments, remains unclear. Therefore, in this study, we co-cultured the predator Paramecium sp. with different initial abundances and the prey Raphidiopsis raciborskii to explore this knowledge gap. Our results suggested that: (1) the population of R. raciborskii declined under the selective grazing effect of Paramecium sp. on short filaments, whereas R. raciborskii with long filaments survived; (2) the growth of Paramecium sp. feeding on the same abundance of R. raciborskii was reduced at higher initial abundances, whereas its carrying capacity exhibited an opposite trend; (3) under ingestion by Paramecium sp., the morphology of R. raciborskii developed in the direction of becoming larger, and higher initial abundances of Paramecium sp. intensified this process; (4) increasing initial abundance of Paramecium sp. aggravated the decline of R. raciborskii photosynthetic activity. Therefore, the grazing effect of Paramecium sp. on R. raciborskii mainly affects filaments of short length or small size. Collectively, these results clarify the inter-species interaction between the protozoa Paramecium and filamentous cyanobacteria Raphidiopsis, including population dynamics and morphological and physiological changes in the predator and prey. Such insights into the interactions between Paramecium and R. raciborskii may have implications for the biological control of blooms caused by filamentous cyanobacteria.

Potential distribution of Biscogniauxia mediterranea and Obolarina persica causal agents of oak charcoal disease in Iran's Zagros forests

In Iran, native oak species are under threat from episodes of Charcoal Disease, a decline syndrome driven by abiotic stressors (e.g. drought, elevated temperature) and biotic components, Biscogniauxia mediterranea (De Not.) Kuntze and Obolarina persica (M. Mirabolfathy). The outbreak is still ongoing and the country's largest ever recorded. Still, the factors driving its' epidemiology in time and space are poorly known and such knowledge is urgently needed to develop strategies to counteract the adverse effects. In this study, we developed a generic framework based on experimental, machine-learning algorithms and spatial analyses for landscape-level prediction of oak charcoal disease outbreaks. Extensive field surveys were conducted during 2013-2015 in eight provinces (more than 50 unique counties) in the Zagros ecoregion. Pathogenic fungi were isolated and characterized through morphological and molecular approaches, and their pathogenicity was assessed under controlled water stress regimes in the greenhouse. Further, we evaluated a set of 29 bioclimatic, environmental, and host layers in modeling for disease incidence data using four well-known machine learning algorithms including the Generalized Linear Model, Gradient Boosting Model, Random Forest model (RF), and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines implemented in MaxEnt software. Model validation statistics [Area Under the Curve (AUC), True Skill Statistics (TSS)], and Kappa index were used to evaluate the accuracy of each model. Models with a TSS above 0.65 were used to prepare an ensemble model. The results showed that among the different climate variables, precipitation and temperature (Bio18, Bio7, Bio8, and bio9) in the case of O. persica and similarly, gsl (growing season length TREELIM, highlighting the warming climate and the endophytic/pathogenic nature of the fungus) and precipitation in case of B. mediterranea are the most important influencing variables in disease modeling, while near-surface wind speed (sfcwind) is the least important variant. The RF algorithm generates the most robust predictions (ROC of 0.95; TSS of 0.77 and 0.79 for MP and OP, respectively). Theoretical analysis shows that the ensemble model (ROC of 0.95 and 0.96; TSS = 0.79 and 0.81 for MP and OP, respectively), can efficiently be used in the prediction of the charcoal disease spatiotemporal distribution. The oak mortality varied ranging from 2 to 14%. Wood-boring beetles association with diseased trees was determined at 20%. Results showed that water deficiency is a crucial component of the oak decline phenomenon in Iran. The Northern Zagros forests (Ilam, Lorestan, and Kermanshah provinces) along with the southern Zagros forests (Fars and Kohgilouyeh va-Boyer Ahmad provinces) among others are the most endangered areas of potential future pandemics of charcoal disease. Our findings will significantly improve our understanding of the current situation of the disease to pave the way against pathogenic agents in Iran.

Current status and prognosis of Raphidiopsis raciborskii distribution in Bulgaria as part of the southeastern region of Europe

The cyanobacterial species Raphidiopsis raciborskii (Wołoszyńska) Aguilera et al. has a high invasiveness potential, which in less than a century leads to its cosmopolitan spread. In the temperate climate of Europe, R. raciborskii has been reported in many countries, but there is still a lack of detailed information about the current status of its distribution in lakes of Bulgaria, as a part of the southeastern range of its spread in Europe. We investigated the distribution of the species using data on the phytoplankton of 122 lakes surveyed during 13-years period (2009-2022). The species was found in 33 lakes (up to 324 m asl), and 14 new localities were registered during the studied period. The results reveal that the number of lakes with the presence of R. raciborskii (27 % of all research lakes) and its contribution to the total phytoplankton biomass, has increased significantly over the last decade. The species has successfully adapted and dominated the phytoplankton in 9 lakes, forming a bloom in 8 of them. The dominant position of R. raciborskii causes loss of species and functional diversity of phytoplankton and displaces the native bloom-forming cyanobacteria. Lakes with and without the species were compared based on the available data on bioclimatic and local environmental variables. Statistically significant differences were established with respect to water transparency, conductivity, maximum depth and maximum air temperature in the warmest month. Species distribution models (SDMs) were used to identify lakes in high risk of future invasion by R. raciborskii. The results of the SDMs implementation confirmed the high maximum air temperature and low water transparency to be important predictors of the occurrence of R. raciborskii in freshwater lakes in Bulgaria. In the areas with high summer temperatures the most suitable for R. raciborskii development were found to be shallow polymictic or medium deep lakes with small surface area and low water transparency. In areas with a suitable climate, the large, deep reservoirs with high transparency as well as macrophyte dominated lakes have a low probability of occurrence of R. raciborskii. Future colonization of lakes above 500 m asl (but most likely below 700 m asl) is also possible, especially in the conditions of global warming. SDMs account for climatic and biogeographic differences of lakes and could help in elucidating the underlying factors that control the occurrence and adaptation of R. raciborskii in a given area.

Towards effective management of the marine-origin Prymnesium parvum (Haptophyta): A growing concern in freshwater reservoirs?

Freshwater ecosystems are highly susceptible to harmful algal blooms (HABs), which are often caused by monospecific dense blooms. Effective preventive management strategies are urgently needed to avoid wide-ranging and severe impacts often resulting in costly damage to resources and unsustainable management options. In this study, we utilized SDM techniques focused on Prymnesium parvum, one of the most notorious HABs species worldwide. We first compare the climatic space occupied by P. parvum in North America, Europe and Australia. Additionally, we use MaxEnt algorithm to infer, for the first time, the potentially suitable freshwater environments in the aforementioned ranges. We also discuss the risks of invasion in reservoirs - prone habitats to persistent blooms of pests and invasive phytoplanktonic species. Our results show populations with distinctive niches suggesting ecophysiological tolerances, perhaps reflecting different strains. Our model projections revealed that the potential extent for P. parvum invasions is much broader than its current geographic distribution. The spatial configuration of reservoirs, if not sustaining dense blooms due to non-optimal conditions, favors colonization of multiple basins and ecoregions not yet occupied by P. parvum. Our models can provide valuable insights to decision-makers and monitoring programs while reducing the resources required to control the spread of P. parvum in disturbed habitats. Lastly, as impact magnitude is influenced by toxicity which in turn varies between different strains, we suggest future studies to incorporate intraspecific genetic information and fine-scale environmental variables to estimate potential distribution of P. parvum.

Challenges in supplying empirical proof for predictions derived from Species Distribution Models (SDMs): the case of an invasive cyanobacterium

Species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated with bioclimatic variables revealed a high probability for range expansion of the invasive toxin producing cyanobacterium, Raphidiopsis raciborskii to Sweden, where no reports of its presence have hitherto been recorded. While predictions focused on the importance of climate variables for possible invasion, other barriers to dispersal and successful colonization need to be overcome by the species for successful invasion. In this study, we combine field-based surveys of R. raciborskii (microscopy and molecular analysis using species-specific primers) of 11 Swedish lakes and in-silico screening of environmental DNA using 153 metagenomic datasets from lakes across Europe to validate the SDMs prediction. Field-based studies in lakes with high/low predicted probability of occurrence did not detect the presence of R. raciborskii, and in-silico screening only detected hints of its presence in 5 metagenomes from lakes with probability ranging from 0.059 to 0.825. The inconsistencies between SDMs results and both field-based/in-silico monitoring could be due to either sensitivity of monitoring approaches in detecting early invasions or uncertainties in SDMs that focused solely on climate drivers. However, results highlight the necessity of proactive monitoring with high temporal and spatial frequency.

Ecological Implications in a Human-Impacted Lake-A Case Study of Cyanobacterial Blooms in a Recreationally Used Water Body

This study was aimed primarily at describing the planktonic assemblages with special attention to invasive and toxin-producing cyanobacterial species in the context of ecological and health threats. The second aim was to analyze the aspect of recreational pressure, which may enhance the cyanobacterial blooms, and, as a consequence, the negative changes and loss of planktonic biodiversity. This study was carried out in recreationally used Lake Sztynorckie throughout the whole growing season of 2020 and included an assessment of the abundance and biomass of phytoplankton (cyanobacteria and algae) in relation to environmental variables. The total biomass was in the range of 28-70 mg L^-1, which is typical for strong blooms. The dominant filamentous cyanobacteria were Pseudanabaena limnetica, Limnothrix redekei, Planktolyngbya limnetica, and Planktothrix agarhii, and three invasive nostocalean species Sphaerospermopsis aphanizomenoides, Cuspidothrix issatschenkoi, and Raphidiopsis raciborskii. They can pose a serious threat not only to the ecosystem but also to humans because of the possibility of cyanobacteria producing cyanotoxins, such as microcystins, saxitoxins, anatoxin-a, and cylindrospermopsins, having hepatotoxic, cytotoxic, neurotoxic, and dermatoxic effects. The water quality was assessed as water bodies had bad ecological status (based on phytoplankton), were highly meso-eutrophic (based on zooplankton), and had very low trophic efficiency and low biodiversity.