Using decision analysis to improve malaria control policy making

Emerging public health strategies in malaria control: innovations and implications

Malaria remains a significant global health challenge, particularly in regions with limited resources and tropical climates. Despite extensive efforts, the disease continues to cause significant morbidity and mortality, with ~229 million cases and 409 000 deaths reported in 2020. However, recent years have seen promising advancements in public health strategies aimed at malaria control and elimination. Technological advancements have played a crucial role in improving malaria control efforts. Genomic surveillance techniques enable the monitoring of malaria parasite populations, aiding in the detection of drug resistance and informing targeted interventions. Additionally, innovative diagnostic technologies, such as rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and molecular assays, have enhanced the speed and accuracy of malaria diagnosis, facilitated prompt treatment and reduced transmission. These tools are instrumental in achieving the WHO goals of reducing malaria cases and deaths by at least 90% by 2030. Novel vector control methods offer innovative approaches to reduce malaria transmission. Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) remain foundational strategies, with advancements including the development of next-generation insecticides and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). Furthermore, genetic modification of mosquitoes, such as gene drive technology, holds promise for reducing mosquito populations and interrupting malaria transmission. These vector control innovations complement other strategies, contributing to comprehensive malaria control efforts aimed at achieving sustainable disease reduction and eventual elimination.

A Methodological Framework for Economic Evaluation of Operational Response to Vector-Borne Diseases Based on Early Warning Systems

Despite significant advances in improving the predictive models for vector-borne diseases, only a few countries have integrated an early warning system (EWS) with predictive and response capabilities into their disease surveillance systems. The limited understanding of forecast performance and uncertainties by decision-makers is one of the primary factors that precludes its operationalization in preparedness and response planning. Further, predictive models exhibit a decrease in forecast skill with longer lead times, a trade-off between forecast accuracy and timeliness and effectiveness of action. This study presents a methodological framework to evaluate the economic value of EWS-triggered responses from the health system perspective. Assuming an operational EWS in place, the framework makes explicit the trade-offs between forecast accuracy, timeliness of action, effectiveness of response, and costs, and uses the net benefit analysis, which measures the benefits of taking action minus the associated costs. Uncertainty in disease forecasts and other parameters is accounted for through probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The output is the probability distribution of the net benefit estimates at given forecast lead times. A non-negative net benefit and the probability of yielding such are considered a general signal that the EWS-triggered response at a given lead time is economically viable. In summary, the proposed framework translates uncertainties associated with disease forecasts and other parameters into decision uncertainty by quantifying the economic risk associated with operational response to vector-borne disease events of potential importance predicted by an EWS. The goal is to facilitate a more informed and transparent public health decision-making under uncertainty.

Applied mathematical modelling to inform national malaria policies, strategies and operations in Tanzania

BACKGROUND

More than ever, it is crucial to make the best use of existing country data, and analytical tools for developing malaria control strategies as the heterogeneity in malaria risk within countries is increasing, and the available malaria control tools are expanding while large funding gaps exist. Global and local policymakers, as well as funders, increasingly recognize the value of mathematical modelling as a strategic tool to support decision making. This case study article describes the long-term use of modelling in close collaboration with the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) in Tanzania, the challenges encountered and lessons learned.

CASE DESCRIPTION

In Tanzania, a recent rebound in prevalence led to the revision of the national malaria strategic plan with interventions targeted to the malaria risk at the sub-regional level. As part of the revision, a mathematical malaria modelling framework for setting specific predictions was developed and used between 2016 and 2019 to (1) reproduce setting specific historical malaria trends, and (2) to simulate in silico the impact of future interventions. Throughout the project, multiple stakeholder workshops were attended and the use of mathematical modelling interactively discussed.

EVALUATION

In Tanzania, the model application created an interdisciplinary and multisectoral dialogue platform between modellers, NMCP and partners and contributed to the revision of the national malaria strategic plan by simulating strategies suggested by the NMCP. The uptake of the modelling outputs and sustained interest by the NMCP were critically associated with following factors: (1) effective sensitization to the NMCP, (2) regular and intense communication, (3) invitation for the modellers to participate in the strategic plan process, and (4) model application tailored to the local context.

CONCLUSION

Empirical data analysis and its use for strategic thinking remain the cornerstone for evidence-based decision-making. Mathematical impact modelling can support the process both by unifying all stakeholders in one strategic process and by adding new key evidence required for optimized decision-making. However, without a long-standing partnership, it will be much more challenging to sensibilize programmes to the usefulness and sustained use of modelling and local resources within the programme or collaborating research institutions need to be mobilized.

Simulating the council-specific impact of anti-malaria interventions: A tool to support malaria strategic planning in Tanzania

INTRODUCTION

The decision-making process for malaria control and elimination strategies has become more challenging. Interventions need to be targeted at council level to allow for changing malaria epidemiology and an increase in the number of possible interventions. Models of malaria dynamics can support this process by simulating potential impacts of multiple interventions in different settings and determining appropriate packages of interventions for meeting specific expected targets.

METHODS

The OpenMalaria model of malaria dynamics was calibrated for all 184 councils in mainland Tanzania using data from malaria indicator surveys, school parasitaemia surveys, entomological surveillance, and vector control deployment data. The simulations were run for different transmission intensities per region and five interventions, currently or potentially included in the National Malaria Strategic Plan, individually and in combination. The simulated prevalences were fitted to council specific prevalences derived from geostatistical models to obtain council specific predictions of the prevalence and number of cases between 2017 and 2020. The predictions were used to evaluate in silico the feasibility of the national target of reaching a prevalence of below 1% by 2020, and to suggest alternative intervention stratifications for the country.

RESULTS

The historical prevalence trend was fitted for each council with an agreement of 87% in 2016 (95%CI: 0.84-0.90) and an agreement of 90% for the historical trend (2003-2016) (95%CI: 0.87-0.93) The current national malaria strategy was expected to reduce the malaria prevalence between 2016 and 2020 on average by 23.8% (95% CI: 19.7%-27.9%) if current case management levels were maintained, and by 52.1% (95% CI: 48.8%-55.3%) if the case management were improved. Insecticide treated nets and case management were the most cost-effective interventions, expected to reduce the prevalence by 25.0% (95% CI: 19.7%-30.2) and to avert 37 million cases between 2017 and 2020. Mass drug administration was included in most councils in the stratification selected for meeting the national target at minimal costs, expected to reduce the prevalence by 77.5% (95%CI: 70.5%-84.5%) and to avert 102 million cases, with almost twice higher costs than those of the current national strategy. In summary, the model suggested that current interventions are not sufficient to reach the national aim of a prevalence of less than 1% by 2020 and a revised strategic plan needs to consider additional, more effective interventions, especially in high transmission areas and that the targets need to be revisited.

CONCLUSION

The methodology reported here is based on intensive interactions with the NMCP and provides a helpful tool for assessing the feasibility of country specific targets and for determining which intervention stratifications at sub-national level will have most impact. This country-led application could support strategic planning of malaria control in many other malaria endemic countries.

Identifying barriers in the malaria control policymaking process in East Africa: insights from stakeholders and a structured literature review

BACKGROUND

The complexity of malaria and public health policy responses presents social, financial, cultural, and institutional barriers to policymaking at multiple stages in the policy process. These barriers reduce the effectiveness of health policy in achieving national goals.

METHODS

We conducted a structured literature review to characterize malaria policy barriers, and we engaged stakeholders through surveys and workshops in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. We compared common barriers presented in the scientific literature to barriers reported by malaria policy stakeholders.

RESULTS

The barriers identified in the structured literature review differ from those described in policymaker surveys. The malaria policy literature emphasizes barriers in the implementation stage of policymaking such as those posed by health systems and specific intervention tools. Stakeholder responses placed greater emphasis on the political nature of policymaking, the disconnect between research and policymaking, and the need for better intersectoral collaboration.

CONCLUSIONS

Identifying barriers to effective malaria control activities provides opportunities to improve health and other outcomes. Such barriers can occur at multiple stages and scales. Employing a stakeholder - designed decision tool framework has the potential to improve existing policies and ultimately the functioning of malaria related institutions. Furthermore, improved coordination between malaria research and policymaking would improve the quality and efficiency of interventions leading to better population health.

Malaria policies versus practices, a reality check from Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo

Background

Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) following a confirmed parasitological diagnosis is recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Congolese National Malaria Control Program (NMCP). However, commitment and competence of all stakeholders (patients, medical professionals, governments and funders) is required to achieve effective case management and secure the “useful therapeutic life” of the recommended drugs. The health seeking behaviour of patients and health care professionals’ practices for malaria management were assessed.

Methods

This was an observational study embedded in a two-stage cluster randomized survey conducted in one health centre (HC) in each of the 12 selected health zones in Kinshasa city. All patients with clinical malaria diagnosis were eligible. Their health seeking behaviour was recorded on a specific questionnaire, as well as the health care practitioners’ practices. The last were not aware that their practices would be assessed.

Results

Six hundred and twenty four patients were assessed, of whom 136 (21.8%) were under five years. Three hundred and thirty five (55%) had taken medication prior to the current consultation (self -medication with any product or visiting another HC) of whom 47(14%) took an antimalarial drug, and 56 (9%) were treated presumptively. Among those, 53.6% received monotherapy either with quinine, artesunate, phytomedicines, sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine or amodiaquine. On the other side, when clinicians were informed about laboratory results, monotherapy was prescribed in 39.9% of the confirmed malaria cases. Only 285 patients (45.7%) were managed in line with WHO and NMCP guidelines, of whom 120 (19.2%) were prescribed an ACT after positive blood smear and 165 (26.4%) received no antimalarial after a negative result.

Conclusion

This study shows the discrepancy between malaria policies and the reality on the field in Kinshasa, regarding patients’ health seeking behaviour and health professionals’ practices. Consequently, the poor compliance to the policies may contribute to the genesis and spread of antimalarial drug resistance and also have a negative impact on the burden of the disease.

Factors influencing malaria control policy-making in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Policy decisions for malaria control are often difficult to make as decision-makers have to carefully consider an array of options and respond to the needs of a large number of stakeholders. This study assessed the factors and specific objectives that influence malaria control policy decisions, as a crucial first step towards developing an inclusive malaria decision analysis support tool (MDAST).

METHODS

Country-specific stakeholder engagement activities using structured questionnaires were carried out in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. The survey respondents were drawn from a non-random purposeful sample of stakeholders, targeting individuals in ministries and non-governmental organizations whose policy decisions and actions are likely to have an impact on the status of malaria. Summary statistics across the three countries are presented in aggregate.

RESULTS

Important findings aggregated across countries included a belief that donor preferences and agendas were exerting too much influence on malaria policies in the countries. Respondents on average also thought that some relevant objectives such as engaging members of parliament by the agency responsible for malaria control in a particular country were not being given enough consideration in malaria decision-making. Factors found to influence decisions regarding specific malaria control strategies included donor agendas, costs, effectiveness of interventions, health and environmental impacts, compliance and/acceptance, financial sustainability, and vector resistance to insecticides.

CONCLUSION

Malaria control decision-makers in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania take into account health and environmental impacts as well as cost implications of different intervention strategies. Further engagement of government legislators and other policy makers is needed in order to increase funding from domestic sources, reduce donor dependence, sustain interventions and consolidate current gains in malaria.

The challenge of big data in public health: an opportunity for visual analytics

Public health (PH) data can generally be characterized as big data. The efficient and effective use of this data determines the extent to which PH stakeholders can sufficiently address societal health concerns as they engage in a variety of work activities. As stakeholders interact with data, they engage in various cognitive activities such as analytical reasoning, decision-making, interpreting, and problem solving. Performing these activities with big data is a challenge for the unaided mind as stakeholders encounter obstacles relating to the data's volume, variety, velocity, and veracity. Such being the case, computer-based information tools are needed to support PH stakeholders. Unfortunately, while existing computational tools are beneficial in addressing certain work activities, they fall short in supporting cognitive activities that involve working with large, heterogeneous, and complex bodies of data. This paper presents visual analytics (VA) tools, a nascent category of computational tools that integrate data analytics with interactive visualizations, to facilitate the performance of cognitive activities involving big data. Historically, PH has lagged behind other sectors in embracing new computational technology. In this paper, we discuss the role that VA tools can play in addressing the challenges presented by big data. In doing so, we demonstrate the potential benefit of incorporating VA tools into PH practice, in addition to highlighting the need for further systematic and focused research.

Towards malaria elimination and its implication for vector control, disease management and livelihoods in Tanzania

Over the years, malaria has remained the number one cause of morbidity and mortality in Tanzania. Population based studies have indicated a decline in overall malaria prevalence among under-fives from 18.1% in 2008 to 9.7% in 2012. The decline of malaria infection has occurred in all geographical zones of the country. Malaria mortality and cumulative probability of deaths have also shown a marked decline from 2000 to 2010. During the same period, area specific studies in Muheza, Korogwe, Muleba and Mvomero have also reported a similar declining trend in malaria prevalence and incidence. The decline in malaria prevalence has been observed to coincide with a decline in transmission indices including anopheline mosquito densities. The decline in malaria prevalence has been attributed to a combination of factors including improved access to effective malaria treatment with artemisinin combination therapy and protection from mosquito bites by increased availability of insecticide treated bednets and indoor residual spraying. The objective of this paper was to review the changing landscape of malaria and its implication for disease management, vector control, and livelihoods in Tanzania. It seeks to examine the links within a broad framework that considers the different pathways given the multiplicity of interactions that can produce unexpected outcomes and trade-offs. Despite the remarkable decline in malaria burden, Tanzania is faced with a number of challenges. These include the development of resistance of malaria vectors to pyrethroids, changing mosquito behaviour and livelihood activities that increase mosquito productivity and exposure to mosquito bites. In addition, there are challenges related to health systems, community perceptions, community involvement and sustainability of funding to the national malaria control programme. This review indicates that malaria remains an important and challenging disease that illustrates the interactions among ecosystems, livelihoods, and health systems. Livelihoods and several sectoral development activities including construction, water resource development and agricultural practices contribute significantly to malaria mosquito productivity and transmission. Consequently, these situations require innovative and integrative re-thinking of the strategies to prevent and control malaria. In conclusion, to accelerate and sustain malaria control in Tanzania, the prevention strategies must go hand in hand with an intersectoral participation approach that takes into account ecosystems and livelihoods that have the potential to increase or decrease malaria transmission.

Beyond information access: Support for complex cognitive activities in public health informatics tools

Public health professionals work with a variety of information sources to carry out their everyday activities. In recent years, interactive computational tools have become deeply embedded in such activities. Unlike the early days of computational tool use, the potential of tools nowadays is not limited to simply providing access to information; rather, they can act as powerful mediators of human-information discourse, enabling rich interaction with public health information. If public health informatics tools are designed and used properly, they can facilitate, enhance, and support the performance of complex cognitive activities that are essential to public health informatics, such as problem solving, forecasting, sense-making, and planning. However, the effective design and evaluation of public health informatics tools requires an understanding of the cognitive and perceptual issues pertaining to how humans work and think with information to perform such activities. This paper draws on research that has examined some of the relevant issues, including interaction design, complex cognition, and visual representations, to offer some human-centered design and evaluation considerations for public health informatics tools.

Implementing new health interventions in developing countries: why do we lose a decade or more?

BACKGROUND

It is unclear how long it takes for health interventions to transition from research and development (R&D) to being used against diseases prevalent in resource-poor countries. We undertook an analysis of the time required to begin implementation of four vaccines and three malaria interventions. We evaluated five milestones for each intervention, and assessed if the milestones were associated with beginning implementation.

METHODS

The authors screened World Health Organization (WHO) databases to determine the number of years between first regulatory approval of interventions, and countries beginning implementation. Descriptive analyses of temporal patterns and statistical analyses using logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate associations between five milestones and the beginning of implementation for each intervention. The milestones were: (A) presence of a coordinating group focused on the intervention; (B) availability of an intervention tailored to developing country health systems; (C) international financing commitment, and; (D) initial and (E) comprehensive WHO recommendations. Countries were categorized by World Bank income criteria.

RESULTS

Five years after regulatory approval, no low-income countries (LICs) had begun implementing any of the vaccines, increasing to an average of only 4% of LICs after 10 years. Each malaria intervention was used by an average of 7% of LICs after five years and 37% after 10 years. Four of the interventions had similar implementation rates to hepatitis B vaccine (HepB), while one was slower and one was faster than HepB. A financing commitment and initial WHO recommendation appeared to be temporally associated with the beginning of implementation. The initial recommendation from WHO was the only milestone associated in all statistical analyses with countries beginning implementation (relative rate = 1.97, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Although possible that four milestones were not associated with countries beginning implementation, we propose an alternative interpretation; that the milestones were not realized early enough in each intervention's development to shorten the time to beginning implementation. We discuss a framework built upon existing literature for consideration during the development of future interventions. Identifying critical milestones and their timing relative to R&D, promises to help new interventions realize their intended public health impact more rapidly.

Priority setting for the implementation of artemisinin-based combination therapy policy in Tanzania: evaluation against the accountability for reasonableness framework

Background

Priority setting for artemisinin-based antimalarial drugs has become an integral part of malaria treatment policy change in malaria-endemic countries. Although these drugs are more efficacious, they are also more costly than the failing drugs. When Tanzania changed its National Malaria Treatment Policy in 2006, priority setting was an inevitable challenge. Artemether-lumefantrine was prioritised as the first-line drug for the management of uncomplicated malaria to be available at a subsidized price at public and faith-based healthcare facilities.

Methods

This paper describes the priority-setting process, which involved the selection of a new first-line antimalarial drug in the implementation of artemisinin-based combination therapy policy. These descriptions were further evaluated against the four conditions of the accountability for reasonableness framework. According to this framework, fair decisions must satisfy a set of publicity, relevance, appeals, and revision and enforcement conditions.

In-depth interviews were held with key informants using pretested interview guides, supplemented with a review of the treatment guideline. Purposeful sampling was used in order to explore the perceptions of people with different backgrounds and perspectives. The analysis followed an editing organising style.

Results

Publicity: The selection decision of artemether-lumefantrine but not the rationale behind it was publicised through radio, television, and newspaper channels in the national language, Swahili. Relevance: The decision was grounded on evidences of clinical efficacy, safety, affordability, and formulation profile. Stakeholders were not adequately involved. There was neither an appeals mechanism to challenge the decision nor enforcement mechanisms to guarantee fairness of the decision outcomes.

Conclusions

The priority-setting decision to use artemether-lumefantrine as the first-line antimalarial drug failed to satisfy the four conditions of the accountability for reasonableness framework. In our understanding, this is the first study to evaluate priority-setting decisions for new drugs in Tanzania against the accountability for reasonableness framework. In addition to the demand for enhanced stakeholder involvement, publicity, and transparency, the study also calls for the institution of formal appeals, revision, and regulatory mechanisms in the future change of malaria treatment policies.

Integrated vector management for malaria control in Uganda: knowledge, perceptions and policy development

BACKGROUND

Integrated vector management (IVM) is increasingly being recommended as an option for sustainable malaria control. However, many malaria-endemic countries lack a policy framework to guide and promote the approach. The objective of the study was to assess knowledge and perceptions in relation to current malaria vector control policy and IVM in Uganda, and to make recommendations for consideration during future development of a specific IVM policy.

METHODS

The study used a structured questionnaire to interview 34 individuals working at technical or policy-making levels in health, environment, agriculture and fisheries sectors. Specific questions on IVM focused on the following key elements of the approach: integration of chemical and non-chemical interventions of vector control; evidence-based decision making; inter-sectoral collaboration; capacity building; legislation; advocacy and community mobilization.

RESULTS

All participants were familiar with the term IVM and knew various conventional malaria vector control (MVC) methods. Only 75% thought that Uganda had a MVC policy. Eighty percent (80%) felt there was inter-sectoral collaboration towards IVM, but that it was poor due to financial constraints, difficulties in involving all possible sectors and political differences. The health, environment and agricultural sectors were cited as key areas requiring cooperation in order for IVM to succeed. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of participants responded that communities were actively being involved in MVC, while 48% felt that the use of research results for evidence-based decision making was inadequate or poor. A majority of the participants felt that malaria research in Uganda was rarely used to facilitate policy changes. Suggestions by participants for formulation of specific and effective IVM policy included: revising the MVC policy and IVM-related policies in other sectors into a single, unified IVM policy and, using legislation to enforce IVM in development projects.

CONCLUSION

Integrated management of malaria vectors in Uganda remains an underdeveloped component of malaria control policy. Cooperation between the health and other sectors needs strengthening and funding for MVC increased in order to develop and effectively implement an appropriate IVM policy. Continuous engagement of communities by government as well as monitoring and evaluation of vector control programmes will be crucial for sustaining IVM in the country.

Application of the malaria management model to the analysis of costs and benefits of DDT versus non-DDT malaria control

INTRODUCTION

DDT is considered to be the most cost-effective insecticide for combating malaria. However, it is also the most environmentally persistent and can pose risks to human health when sprayed indoors. Therefore, the use of DDT for vector control remains controversial.

METHODS

In this paper we develop a computer-based simulation model to assess some of the costs and benefits of the continued use of DDT for Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) versus its rapid phase out. We apply the prototype model to the aggregated sub Saharan African region. For putting the question about the continued use of DDT for IRS versus its rapid phase out into perspective we calculate the same costs and benefits for alternative combinations of integrated vector management interventions.

RESULTS

Our simulation results confirm that the current mix of integrated vector management interventions with DDT as the main insecticide is cheaper than the same mix with alternative insecticides when only direct costs are considered. However, combinations with a stronger focus on insecticide-treated bed nets and environmental management show higher levels of cost-effectiveness than interventions with a focus on IRS. Thus, this focus would also allow phasing out DDT in a cost-effective manner. Although a rapid phase out of DDT for IRS is the most expensive of the tested intervention combinations it can have important economic benefits in addition to health and environmental impacts that are difficult to assess in monetary terms. Those economic benefits captured by the model include the avoided risk of losses in agricultural exports.

CONCLUSIONS

The prototype simulation model illustrates how a computer-based scenario analysis tool can inform debates on malaria control policies in general and on the continued use of DDT for IRS versus its rapid phase out in specific. Simulation models create systematic mechanisms for analyzing alternative interventions and making informed trade offs.