Planning for what? Challenging the assumptions of health human resources planning

Transforming health care systems towards high-performance organizations: qualitative study based on learning from COVID-19 pandemic in the Basque Country (Spain)

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the worst health catastrophes of the last century, which caused severe economic, political, and social consequences worldwide. Despite these devastating consequences, lessons learned provide a great opportunity that can drive the reform of health systems to become high-performing, effective, equitable, accessible, and sustainable organisations. This work identifies areas in which changes must be encouraged that will enable health systems to deal effectively with current and future challenges, beyond COVID-19.

METHODS

A realist design was chosen, based on qualitative data collection techniques, content analysis and triangulation to identify key domains of organizational interventions behind the changes implemented to react to the COVID-19 pandemic in the Basque Country. Twenty key informants were used as an expert source of information. Thematic analysis was done using the Framework Method.

RESULTS

The analysis of the interviews resulted in the identification of 116 codes, which were reviewed and agreed upon by the researchers. Following the process of methodological analysis, these codes were grouped into domains: seven themes and 23 sub-themes. Specifically, the themes are: responsiveness, telehealth, integration, knowledge management, professional roles, digitisation, and organisational communication. The detailed description of each theme and subtheme is presented.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this work pretend to guide the transformation of health systems into organisations that can improve the health of their populations and provide high quality care. Such a multidimensional and comprehensive reform encompasses both strategic and operational actions in diverse areas and requires a broad and sustained political, technical, and financial commitment.

Health workforce supply, needs and financial feasibility in Lesotho: a labour market analysis

BACKGROUND

The Government of Lesotho has prioritised health investment that aims to improve the health and socioeconomic development of the country, including the scaling up of the health workforce (HWF) training and improving their working conditions. Following a health labour market analysis, the paper highlights the available stock of health workers in Lesotho's health labour market, 10-year projected supply versus needs and the financial implications.

METHODS

Multiple complementary approaches were used to collect data and analyse the HWF situation and labour market dynamics. These included a scooping assessment, desk review, triangulation of different data sources for descriptive analysis and modelling of the HWF supply, need and financial space.

FINDINGS

Lesotho had about 20 942 active health workers across 18 health occupations in 2020, mostly community health workers (69%), nurses and midwives (17.9%), while medical practitioners were 2%. Almost one out of three professional nurses and midwives (28.43%) were unemployed, and nearly 20% of associate nurse professionals, 13.26% of pharmacy technicians and 24.91% of laboratory technicians were also unemployed. There were 20.73 doctors, nurses and midwives per 10 000 population in Lesotho, and this could potentially increase to a density of 31.49 doctors, nurses and midwives per 10 000 population by 2030 compared with a need of 46.72 per 10 000 population by 2030 based on projected health service needs using disease burden and evolving population size and demographics. The existing stock of health workers covered only 47% of the needs and could improve to 55% in 2030. The financial space for the HWF employment was roughly US$40.94 million in 2020, increasing to about US$66.69 million by 2030. In comparison, the cost of employing all health workers already in the supply pipeline (in addition to the currently employed ones) was estimated to be US$61.48 million but could reach US$104.24 million by 2030. Thus, a 33% gap is apparent between the financial space and what is required to guarantee employment for all health workers in the supply pipeline.

CONCLUSION

Lesotho's HWF stock falls short of its population health need by 53%. The unemployment of some cadres is, however, apparent. Addressing the need requires increasing the HWF budget by at least 12.3% annually up to 2030 or prioritising at least 33% of its recurrent health expenditure to the HWF.

Modelling the supply and need for health professionals for primary health care in Ghana: Implications for health professions education and employment planning

Background

The health workforce (HWF) is critical in developing responsive health systems to address population health needs and respond to health emergencies, but defective planning have arguably resulted in underinvestment in health professions education and decent employment. Primary Health Care (PHC) has been the anchor of Ghana’s health system. As Ghana’s population increases and the disease burden doubles, it is imperative to estimate the potential supply and need for health professionals; and the level of investment in health professions education and employment that will be necessary to avert any mismatches.

Methods

Using a need-based health workforce planning framework, we triangulated data from multiple sources and systematically applied a previously published Microsoft® Excel-based model to conduct a fifteen-year projection of the HWF supply, needs, gaps and training requirements in the context of primary health care in Ghana.

Results

The projections show that based on the population (size and demographics), disease burden, the package of health services and the professional standards for delivering those services, Ghana needed about 221,593 health professionals across eleven categories in primary health care in 2020. At a rate of change between 3.2% and 10.7% (average: 5.5%) per annum, the aggregate need for health professionals is likely to reach 495,273 by 2035. By comparison, the current (2020) stock is estimated to grow from 148,390 to about 333,770 by 2035 at an average growth rate of 5.6%. The health professional’s stock is projected to meet 67% of the need but with huge supply imbalances. Specifically, the supply of six out of the 11 health professionals (~54.5%) cannot meet even 50% of the needs by 2035, but Midwives could potentially be overproduced by 32% in 2030.

Conclusion

Future health workforce strategy should endeavour to increase the intake of Pharmacy Technicians by more than seven-fold; General Practitioners by 110%; Registered general Nurses by 55% whilst Midwives scaled down by 15%. About US$ 480.39 million investment is required in health professions education to correct the need versus supply mismatches. By 2035, US$ 2.374 billion must be planned for the employment of those that would have to be trained to fill the need-based shortages and for sustaining the employment of those currently available.

Sustainable human resource planning for hospitals in tier 2/3 cities: evidence from India

Purpose

To evolve sustainable practices for human resource planning (HRP) for hospitals being set up in Tier 2/3 cities in India. The purpose of this study is to determine the strategic challenges are faced by hospitals in Tier 2/3 cities. To align HRP/workforce planning to departmental strategic/business planning of the hospital in the defined context. To address the dilemmas of the prospective health-care workforce in Tier 2/3 cities.

Design/methodology/approach

The integrated methodology adopted uses the grounded approach for building theory from practice. Due to the lack of research in the identified context, the study relies on a review of literature related to health-care practices, HRP and general management inputs to evolve the exact interview questionnaire. The subsequent empirical analysis is based on interviews of niche human resource experts in private hospitals.

Findings

The traditional and successful model of private hospitals in the metro cities cannot be transplanted to the Tier 2/3 cities. The thumb rule on a ratio between the doctors, paramedic staff, nurses and other support staff requires to be modified as necessary. Uncertainty in the new context requires the outlook to be basic, uncomplicated, flexible and agile. Attracting and recruitment strategies require adopting an innovative and multipronged approach. Sourcing high-end specialists need not follow the retainership model of employment.

Practical implications

The need to penetrate health-care services to the Tier 2/3 cities within India cannot be disputed. With the increase in disposable income and standard of living in these cities, access to quality and affordable health care is also imperative. The study is a pioneering effort to suggest a practicable and uncomplicated model for hospital setup in the identified context, with a focus on HRP.

Originality/value

This paper offers novel perspectives to the HRP of health-care personnel for a hospital setup in Tier 2/3 cities in India. For the success of private hospitals and their financial viability, this planning is of utmost importance. There is an attempt to fill the knowledge gap in the context which has been rarely explored or ventured. In addition, the policy initiatives suggested are expected to encourage the growth of private hospitals within the Tier 2/3 cities in India.

Supply-and-demand projections for the health workforce at a provincial level from 2015 to 2025 in Ilam, Iran

Background:

Human resources are the key component of health systems. It is critical to have the right number of human resources at anytime and anywhere in the health system. This article aims to help local health decision makers to identify potential gaps between the future supply and demand of human resources and to make necessary changes in medical training processes to fill the gap.

Methods:

An eight-stage process was applied to project the supply and demand of health workers in Ilam province in 2025 for the following fields: public health, environmental health, general medicine, dentistry, pharmacy, nursing and midwifery. To estimate the demand for human resources, a mainly population-based model (manpower-to-population ratio) was applied. A modified version of the Australian dynamic stock and flow model was used to predict the supply of new recruits in 2025. The potential surplus or shortfall in the health workforce was calculated by comparing the supply and demand in 2025.

Results:

The demand and supply projections for the chosen fields were estimated respectively as: general medicine 457, 709; pharmacy 131, 86; dentistry 86, 251; nursing 949, 1657; midwifery 24, 247; public health 182, 211; and environmental health 92, 225.

Conclusions:

The current trend of medical graduates will meet the need for human resources in 2025, and there is no need to increase medical student admission. The Education Deputy of Ilam Medical University should take into account the health needs of its catchment area in medical educational processes and training new health-care staff.

The needs-based health workforce planning method: a systematic scoping review of analytical applications

Although the theoretical underpinnings and analytical framework for needs-based health workforce planning are well developed and tested, its uptake in national planning processes is still limited. Towards the development of open-access needs-based planning model for national workforce planning, we conducted a systematic scoping review of analytical applications of needs-based health workforce models. Guided by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses-extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) checklist, a systematic scoping review was conducted. A systematic search of peer-reviewed literature published in English was undertaken across several databases. Papers retrieved were assessed against predefined inclusion criteria, critically appraised, extracted and synthesized. Twenty-five papers were included, which showed increasing uptake of the needs-based health workforce modelling, with 84% of the studies published within the last decade (2010-20). Three countries (Canada, Australia and England) accounted for 48% of the publications included whilst four studies (16%) were based on low-and-middle-income countries. Only three of the studies were conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. Most of the studies (36%) reported analytical applications for specific disease areas/programs at sub-national levels; 20% focused on the health system need for particular categories of health workers, and only two (8%) reported the analytical application of the needs-based health workforce approach at the level of a national health system across several disease areas/programs. Amongst the studies that conducted long-term projections, the time horizon of the projection was an average of 17 years, ranging from 3 to 33 years. Most of these studies had a minimum time horizon of 10 years. Across the studies, we synthesized six typical methodological considerations for advancing needs-based health workforce modelling. As countries aspire to align health workforce investments with population health needs, the need for some level of methodological harmonization, open-access needs-based models and guidelines for policy-oriented country-level use is not only imperative but urgent.

Advancing the Population Needs-Based Health Workforce Planning Methodology: A Simulation Tool for Country Application

Although the conceptual underpinnings of needs-based health workforce planning have developed over the last two decades, lingering gaps in empirical models and lack of open access tools have partly constrained its uptake in health workforce planning processes in countries. This paper presents an advanced empirical framework for the need-based approach to health workforce planning with an open-access simulation tool in Microsoft^® Excel to facilitate real-life health workforce planning in countries. Two fundamental mathematical models are used to quantify the supply of, and need for, health professionals, respectively. The supply-side model is based on a stock-and-flow process, and the need-side model extents a previously published analytical frameworks using the population health needs-based approach. We integrate the supply and need analyses by comparing them to establish the gaps in both absolute and relative terms, and then explore their cost implications for health workforce policy and strategy. To illustrate its use, the model was used to simulate a real-life example using midwives and obstetricians/gynaecologists in the context of maternal and new-born care in Ghana. Sensitivity analysis showed that if a constant level of health was assumed (as in previous works), the need for health professionals could have been underestimated in the long-term. Towards universal health coverage, the findings reveal a need to adopt the need-based approach for HWF planning and to adjust HWF supply in line with population health needs.

Integrating interprofessional education with needs-based health workforce planning to strengthen health systems

Providing quality health care is the core purpose for health systems, and it is only possible with adequate capacity among the workforce to provide the required services. Addressing the requirements for, and supply of, the health workforce (workforce planning) is essential for strengthening health systems. There is a global recognition that interprofessional education (IPE) is critical to achieving universal health care. In this introductory paper we discuss how IPE is a key factor within needs-based health systems strengthening and Human Resources for Health (HRH) planning. This perspective is illustrated through six case studies from countries around the globe which provide discourse on how the integration of IPE/IPC with needs-based workforce planning can contribute to strengthening the health systems. Three key learnings arise from the case studies - 1) IPE is important to meet health care needs of populations efficiently and effectively; 2) integrated needs-based planning provides a framework within which IPE has an integral role, and 3) stakeholders from both health and education are critical to the process of seamless integration of IPE across the continuum of health systems.

Providing postpartum care with limited resources: Experiences of nurse-midwives and obstetricians in urban Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Tanzania has high maternal and neonatal mortality rates. Comprehensive guidelines for postpartum care have been developed by the government as a means to improve health outcomes during the perinatal period. Despite the creation of these guidelines and the government's commitment to universal perinatal care for women and neonates, there is concern that the delivery of postpartum services may not be meeting the needs of mothers and neonates.

AIM

The purpose of this feminist poststructuralist study was to explore nurse-midwives' and obstetricians' experiences of providing postpartum care in Tanzania.

METHODS

This qualitative study used feminist poststructuralism to explore the personal, social, and institutional discourses of postpartum care. We individually interviewed ten nurse-midwives and three obstetricians in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Feminist poststructuralist discourse analysis was used to analyze the transcribed interviews after their translation from Kiswahili to English.

FINDINGS

Four main themes were identified. In this paper, we present the main theme of availability of resources, and its four corresponding subthemes; (1) space, (2) equipment, (3) staffing, and (4) government responsibility.

DISCUSSION

The findings from our study illustrate the need for health workforce planning to be addressed in a comprehensive manner that accounts for context, required resources and systemic challenges. These findings are consistent with findings from other studies.

CONCLUSION

Understanding the resource challenges that nurse-midwives and obstetricians are facing in one low-and-middle-income-country will assist researchers, decision makers, and politicians as they address issues of mortality, morbidity, and disrespectful maternity care.

A supply model for nurse workforce projection in Malaysia

The paper aims to provide an insight into the significance of having a simulation model to forecast the supply of registered nurses for health workforce planning policy using System Dynamics. A model is highly in demand to predict the workforce demand for nurses in the future, which it supports for complete development of a needs-based nurse workforce projection using Malaysia as a case study. The supply model consists of three sub-models to forecast the number of registered nurses for the next 15 years: training model, population model and Full Time Equivalent (FTE) model. In fact, the training model is for predicting the number of newly registered nurses after training is completed. Furthermore, the population model is for indicating the number of registered nurses in the nation and the FTE model is useful for counting the number of registered nurses with direct patient care. Each model is described in detail with the logical connection and mathematical governing equation for accurate forecasting. The supply model is validated using error analysis approach in terms of the root mean square percent error and the Theil inequality statistics, which is mportant for evaluating the simulation results. Moreover, the output of simulation results provides a useful insight for policy makers as a what-if analysis is conducted. Some recommendations are proposed in order to deal with the nursing deficit. It must be noted that the results from the simulation model will be used for the next stage of the Needs-Based Nurse Workforce projection project. The impact of this study is that it provides the ability for greater planning and policy making with better predictions.

Will the Need-Based Planning of Health Human Resources Currently Undertaken in Several Countries Lead to Excess Supply and Inefficiency? A Comment on Basu and Pak

Basu and Pak (2014) argue that need-based workforce planning models would not maximize social welfare, and use of need-based models would result in inefficiency. They propose that planning be based on service utilization to incorporate preferences or other socioeconomic factors. We show that the analysis is based on inappropriate considerations of the nature of healthcare demand, a misrepresentation of need-based approaches and misunderstanding publicly funded healthcare system objectives. We explain how current levels of utilization emerge from workload and income interests of providers that underlie utilization-based models and are incompatible with public goals of maximizing health gains. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A synthesis of recent analyses of human resources for health requirements and labour market dynamics in high-income OECD countries

BACKGROUND

Recognition of the importance of effective human resources for health (HRH) planning is evident in efforts by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Global Health Workforce Alliance (GHWA) to facilitate, with partner organizations, the development of a global HRH strategy for the period 2016-2030. As part of efforts to inform the development of this strategy, the aims of this study, the first of a pair, were (a) to conduct a rapid review of recent analyses of HRH requirements and labour market dynamics in high-income countries who are members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and (b) to identify a methodology to determine future HRH requirements for these countries.

METHODS

A systematic search of peer-reviewed literature, targeted website searches, and multi-stage reference mining were conducted. To supplement these efforts, an international Advisory Group provided additional potentially relevant documents. All documents were assessed against predefined inclusion criteria and reviewed using a standardized data extraction tool.

RESULTS

In total, 224 documents were included in the review. The HRH supply in the included countries is generally expected to grow, but it is not clear whether that growth will be adequate to meet health care system objectives in the future. Several recurring themes regarding factors of importance in HRH planning were evident across the documents reviewed, such as aging populations and health workforces as well as changes in disease patterns, models of care delivery, scopes of practice, and technologies in health care. However, the most common HRH planning approaches found through the review do not account for most of these factors.

CONCLUSIONS

The current evidence base on HRH labour markets in high-income OECD countries, although large and growing, does not provide a clear picture of the expected future HRH situation in these countries. Rather than HRH planning methods and analyses being guided by explicit HRH policy questions, most of the reviewed studies appeared to derive HRH policy questions based on predetermined planning methods. Informed by the findings of this review, a methodology to estimate future HRH requirements for these countries is described.

Improving the planning of the GP workforce in Australia: a simulation model incorporating work transitions, health need and service usage

BACKGROUND

In Australia, the approach to health workforce planning has been supply-led and resource-driven rather than need-based. The result has been cycles of shortages and oversupply. These approaches have tended to use age and sex projections as a measure of need or demand for health care. Less attention has been given to more complex aspects of the population, such as the increasing proportion of the ageing population and increasing levels of chronic diseases or changes in the mix of health care providers or their productivity levels. These are difficult measures to get right and so are often avoided. This study aims to develop a simulation model for planning the general practice workforce in South Australia that incorporates work transitions, health need and service usage.

METHODS

A simulation model was developed with two sub-models--a supply sub-model and a need sub-model. The supply sub-model comprised three components--training, supply and productivity--and the need sub-model described population size, health needs, service utilisation rates and productivity. A state transition cohort model is used to estimate the future supply of GPs, accounting for entries and exits from the workforce and changes in location and work status. In estimating the required number of GPs, the model used incidence and prevalence data, combined with age, gender and condition-specific utilisation rates. The model was run under alternative assumptions reflecting potential changes in need and utilisation rates over time.

RESULTS

The supply sub-model estimated the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) GP stock in SA for the period 2004-2011 and was similar to the observed data, although it had a tendency to overestimate the GP stock. The three scenarios presented for the demand sub-model resulted in different outcomes for the estimated required number of GPs. For scenario one, where utilisation rates in 2003 were assumed optimal, the model predicted fewer FTE GPs were required than was observed. In scenario 2, where utilisation rates in 2013 were assumed optimal, the model matched observed data, and in scenario 3, which assumed increasing age- and gender-specific needs over time, the model predicted more FTE GPs were required than was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides a robust methodology for determining supply and demand for one professional group at a state level. The supply sub-model was fitted to accurately represent workforce behaviours. In terms of demand, the scenario analysis showed variation in the estimations under different assumptions that demonstrates the value of monitoring population-based need over time. In the meantime, expert opinion might identify the most relevant scenario to be used in projecting workforce requirements.

Cohort effects on the need for health care and implications for health care planning in Canada

The sustainability of publicly funded health care systems is an issue for governments around the world. The economic climate limits governments' fiscal capacity to continue to devote an increasing share of public funds to health care. Meanwhile the demands for health care within populations continue to increase. Planning the future requirements for health care is typically based on applying current levels of health service use by age to demographic projections of the population. But changes in age-specific levels of health over time would undermine this 'constant use by age' assumption. We use representative Canadian survey data (Canadian Community Health Survey) covering the period 2001-2012, to identify the separate trends in demography (population ageing) and epidemiology (population health) on self-reported health. We propose an approach to estimating future health care requirements that incorporates cohort trends in health. Overall health care requirements for the population increase as the size and mean age of the population increase, but these effects are mitigated by cohort trends in health-we find the estimated need for health care is lower when models account for cohort effects in addition to age effects.

Handling healthcare workforce planning with care: where do we stand?

BACKGROUND

Planning the health-care workforce required to meet the health needs of the population, while providing service levels that maximize the outcome and minimize the financial costs, is a complex task. The problem can be described as assessing the right number of people with the right skills in the right place at the right time, to provide the right services to the right people. The literature available on the subject is vast but sparse, with no consensus established on a definite methodology and technique, making it difficult for the analyst or policy maker to adopt the recent developments or for the academic researcher to improve such a critical field.

METHODS

We revisited more than 60 years of documented research to better understand the chronological and historical evolution of the area and the methodologies that have stood the test of time. The literature review was conducted in electronic publication databases and focuses on conceptual methodologies rather than techniques.

RESULTS

Four different and widely used approaches were found within the scope of supply and three within demand. We elaborated a map systematizing advantages, limitations and assumptions. Moreover, we provide a list of the data requirements necessary to implement each of the methodologies. We have also identified past and current trends in the field and elaborated a proposal on how to integrate the different methodologies.

CONCLUSION

Methodologies abound, but there is still no definite approach to address HHR planning. Recent literature suggests that an integrated approach is the way to solve such a complex problem, as it combines elements both from supply and demand, and more effort should be put in improving that proposal.

A descriptive study of employment patterns and work environment outcomes of specialist nurses in Canada

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVES

The purpose was to describe the number, demographic characteristics, work patterns, exit rates, and work perceptions of nurses in Ontario, Canada, in 4 specialty classifications: advanced practice nurse (APN)-clinical nurse specialist (CNS), APN-other, primary healthcare nurse practitioner [RN(extended class [EC])], and registered nurse (RN) with specialty certification. The objectives were to (1) describe how many qualified nurses are available by specialty class; (2) create a demographic profile of specialist nurses; (3) determine the proportions of specialist and nonspecialist nurses who leave (a) direct patient care and (b) nursing practice annually; (4) determine whether specialist and nonspecialist nurses differ in their self-ratings of work environment, job satisfaction, and intention to remain in nursing. Employment patterns refer to nurses' employment status (eg, full-time, part-time, casual), work duration (ie, length of employment in nurses and in current role), and work transitions (ie, movement in and out of the nursing workforce, and movement out of current role).

DESIGN

A longitudinal analysis of the Ontario nurses' registration database from 2005 to 2010 and a survey of specialist nurses in Canada was conducted.

SETTING

The setting was Canada.

SAMPLE

The database sample consisted of 3 specialist groups, consisting of RN(EC), CNS, and APN-other, as well as 1 nonspecialist RN staff nurse group. The survey sample involved 359 nurses who were classified into groups based on self-reported job title and RN specialty-certification status.

METHODS

Data sources included College of Nurses of Ontario registration database and survey data. The study measures were the Nursing Work Index, a 4-item measure of job satisfaction, and 1-item measure of intent to leave current job. Nurses registered with the College of Nurses of Ontario were tracked over the study period to identify changes in their employment status with comparisons made between nurses employed in specialist roles and those registered as general staff nurses. Analysis involved descriptive summaries, mean comparisons with independent-samples t test, and χ(2) tests for categorical data.

RESULTS

Exit rates from direct practice were highest for APN-other (7.6%) and CNS (6.2%) and lowest for RN(EC) (1.0%) and staff nurses (1.2%). χ(2) Tests indicated yearly exit rates of both APN-other and CNS nurse groups were significantly higher than those of staff nurses in all years evaluated (α = .025). Every specialist employment group scored significantly higher than staff nurses on measures of work environment and satisfaction outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

We provided a description of specialist nurses in Ontario and examined the relationship between specialization and employment patterns of nurses to inform nurse retention strategies in the future. Employment in specialist nursing positions is significantly associated with differences in transitions or exits from nursing among the specialist and nonspecialist groups. Registered nurses (EC) displayed improved retention characteristics compared with staff nurses. Advanced practice nurse-other and APN-CNS exit rates from nursing practice in Ontario were comparable to staff nurses, but exit rates from direct clinical practice roles were higher than those of staff nurses.

IMPLICATIONS

Targeted strategies are required to retain CNS and APN-other in direct clinical practice roles.

Exploring the limitations of age-based models for health care planning

Health care decision makers are required to make planning decisions over a medium to long term planning horizon. Whilst population ageing is an important consideration for planners, age-stratified demographic models may produce misleading estimates of future resource requirements if the actual relationship between age and health is not fixed. We present a methodology which tests whether the assumption of a fixed age-health relationship is valid and estimate the magnitude of planning errors using a long time-series of measures of chronic health and service utilisation (N = 2419) taken from the Great British General Household Survey (1980-2008). We find that age-only models contain significant omitted variable bias, and that the relationship between age and health varies significantly across birth cohorts. Chronic sickness has fallen across birth cohorts born between 1890 and 2008, particularly before birth year 1930. Generational health improvements have mitigated the effects of population ageing, meaning that the population rate of sickness fell between 1980 and 2008. Planning based only on age leads to overestimation of the population level of health care need if successive cohorts are becoming healthier. Many alternative approaches exist which allow planners to relax the assumption of a fixed relationship between age and health.

In place of fear: aligning health care planning with system objectives to achieve financial sustainability

The financial sustainability of publicly funded health care systems is a challenge to policymakers in many countries as health care absorbs an ever increasing share of both national wealth and government spending. New technology, aging populations and increasing public expectations of the health care system are often cited as reasons why health care systems need ever increasing funding as well as reasons why universal and comprehensive public systems are unsustainable. However, increases in health care spending are not usually linked to corresponding increases in need for care within populations. Attempts to promote financial sustainability of systems such as limiting the range of services is covered or the groups of population covered may compromise their political sustainability as some groups are left to seek private cover for some or all services. In this paper, an alternative view of financial sustainability is presented which identifies the failure of planning and management of health care to reflect needs for care in populations and to integrate planning and management functions for health care expenditure, health care services and the health care workforce. We present a Health Care Sustainability Framework based on disaggregating the health care expenditure into separate planning components. Unlike other approaches to planning health care expenditure, this framework explicitly incorporates population health needs as a determinant of health care requirements, and provides a diagnostic tool for understanding the sources of expenditure increase.

Dental care coverage and use: modeling limitations and opportunities

OBJECTIVES

We examined why older US adults without dental care coverage and use would have lower use rates if offered coverage than do those who currently have coverage.

METHODS

We used data from the 2008 Health and Retirement Study to estimate a multinomial logistic model to analyze the influence of personal characteristics in the grouping of older US adults into those with and those without dental care coverage and dental care use.

RESULTS

Compared with persons with no coverage and no dental care use, users of dental care with coverage were more likely to be younger, female, wealthier, college graduates, married, in excellent or very good health, and not missing all their permanent teeth.

CONCLUSIONS

Providing dental care coverage to uninsured older US adults without use will not necessarily result in use rates similar to those with prior coverage and use. We have offered a model using modifiable factors that may help policy planners facilitate programs to increase dental care coverage uptake and use.

Not enough doctors or not enough needs? Refocusing health workforce planning from providers and services to populations and needs

The importance of allocating services in accordance with population needs is well-established. Needs-based approaches to geographical resource allocation were established in the National Health Service in the UK in the 1970s, but the role of population needs has not extended to planning for the quantity and mix of health care services or for the providers required to deliver these services. We present a framework that integrates health service and workforce planning focused on responding to population needs. Using data from the General Household Survey for England over the period 1985-2006, we illustrate trends in health needs and service use per capita. Despite needs per capita falling, service use has increased. Rates of increase in service use are greater among those with less needs illustrating that, in the absence of appropriate planning methods, increases in service use may result from supplier influence rather than policy decisions.