Huckaby LV, Seese LM, Hickey G, Sultan I, Kilic A. A mortality risk score for heart transplants after contemporary ventricular assist device bridging.
J Card Surg 2020;
36:449-456. [PMID:
33284503 DOI:
10.1111/jocs.15188]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2020] [Revised: 10/03/2020] [Accepted: 10/22/2020] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND
We sought to derive a risk score for 1-year mortality following orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT) in patients bridged with a contemporary centrifugal left ventricular assist device (LVAD).
METHODS
Adult patients (≥18 years) in the United Network for Organ Sharing database undergoing OHT between 2010 and 2019 who were bridged with a HeartWare or HeartMate III device were included. Derivation and validation cohorts were randomly assigned with a 2:1 ratio. Threshold analysis and multivariable logistic regression were utilized to obtain adjusted odds ratios for 1-year post-OHT mortality. A risk score was generated using these adjusted odds ratios in the derivation cohort and the predictive performance of the composite index was evaluated in the validation set.
RESULTS
A total of 3434 patients were identified. In the derivation cohort, the mean age was 53.5 ± 12.1 years and 1758 (76.8%) were male; 1789 (78.1%) were bridged with a HeartWare device. Multivariable logistic regression revealed that recipient age ≥50 years, bilirubin level ≥2.4 mg/dl, ischemic time ≥4 h, and preoperative hemodialysis predicted 1-year post-transplant mortality. Stratification into risk groups in the validation cohort revealed significant differences in postoperative renal failure, stroke, and short-term mortality. One-year post-transplant mortality was 5%, 6.7%, and 14.8% in the low-, moderate-, and high-risk categories, respectively (p < .001).
CONCLUSIONS
Among patients bridged to OHT with newer generation centrifugal LVADs, older age, increasing bilirubin, longer ischemic time, and pre-OHT dialysis independently predicted post-transplant mortality. The composite risk score based on these factors may assist in patient selection and prognostication in those supported with contemporary LVADs.
Collapse