Relationship between temporal anomalies in PM2.5 concentrations and reported influenza/influenza-like illness activity

Temperature and particulate matter as environmental factors associated with seasonality of influenza incidence - an approach using Earth observation-based modeling in a health insurance cohort study from Baden-Württemberg (Germany)

BACKGROUND

Influenza seasonality has been frequently studied, but its mechanisms are not clear. Urban in-situ studies have linked influenza to meteorological or pollutant stressors. Few studies have investigated rural and less polluted areas in temperate climate zones.

OBJECTIVES

We examined influences of medium-term residential exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), NO₂, SO₂, air temperature and precipitation on influenza incidence.

METHODS

To obtain complete spatial coverage of Baden-Württemberg, we modeled environmental exposure from data of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service and of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. We computed spatiotemporal aggregates to reflect quarterly mean values at post-code level. Moreover, we prepared health insurance data to yield influenza incidence between January 2010 and December 2018. We used generalized additive models, with Gaussian Markov random field smoothers for spatial input, whilst using or not using quarter as temporal input.

RESULTS

In the 3.85 million cohort, 513,404 influenza cases occurred over the 9-year period, with 53.6% occurring in quarter 1 (January to March), and 10.2%, 9.4% and 26.8% in quarters 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Statistical modeling yielded highly significant effects of air temperature, precipitation, PM_2.5 and NO₂. Computation of stressor-specific gains revealed up to 3499 infections per 100,000 AOK clients per year that are attributable to lowering ambient mean air temperature from 18.71 °C to 2.01 °C. Stressor specific gains were also substantial for fine particulate matter, yielding up to 502 attributable infections per 100,000 clients per year for an increase from 7.49 μg/m³ to 15.98 μg/m³.

CONCLUSIONS

Whilst strong statistical association of temperature with other stressors makes it difficult to distinguish between direct and mediated temperature effects, results confirm genuine effects by fine particulate matter on influenza infections for both rural and urban areas in a temperate climate. Future studies should attempt to further establish the mediating mechanisms to inform public health policies.

Methods for assessing the impact of PM2.5 concentration on mortality while controlling for socio-economic factors

Even though industrial development has brought vast improvements to our daily lives, it carries with it negative effects such as adverse health outcomes caused by PM_2.5 and other pollutants. The negative externalities and external costs might occur when property rights are not properly defined, which means that if no one holds a property right on the atmosphere and the quality of air, there is no appropriate mechanism to prevent a further expansion of negative effects. An economic burden of pollution related to premature morbidity and mortality in individual countries can account for 5–14% of GDP (World Bank, 2021). In 2019, the worldwide health cost of mortality and morbidity caused by exposure to PM_2.5 concentration was $8.1 trillion, which is equivalent to 6.1 percent of the global gross domestic product (GDP) (World Bank estimate). Policymakers require evidence-based results that clearly show the impact that air pollution has on the economy and society, in order to be able to establish the proper regulations and ensure their successful implementation. The purpose of this long term study is to provide methods for assessing the negative effects of PM_2.5 concentration on PM_2.5-related mortality using panel data structure and demonstrate how socio-economic factors affect this relation. This study employed advanced econometric techniques to analyse the long-term impact of PM_2.5 on human health, while controlling for socio economic indicators. This study has demonstrated significant effects of socio-economic, health risk and system and governance variables on the relation between PM_2.5 ​concentration and PM_2.5-related mortality.

Association between ozone exposure and prevalence of mumps: a time-series study in a Megacity of Southwest China

In the present study, we aim to evaluate the delayed and cumulative effect of ozone (O₃) exposure on mumps in a megacity with high population density and high humidity. We took Chongqing, a megacity in Southwest China, as the research area and 2013-2017 as the research period. A total of 49,258 confirmed mumps cases were collected from 122 hospitals of Chongqing. We employed the distributed lag nonlinear models with quasi-Poisson link to investigate the relationship between prevalence of mumps and O₃ exposure after adjusting for the effects of meteorological conditions. The results show that the effect of O₃ exposure on mumps was mainly manifested in the lag of 0-7 days. The single-day ;lag effect was the most obvious on the 4th day, with the relative risk (RR) of mumps occurs of 1.006 (95% CI: 1.003-1.007) per 10 μg/m³ in the O₃ exposure. The cumulative RR within 7 days was 1.025 (95% CI: 1.013-1.038). Our results suggest that O₃ exposure can increase the risk of mumps infection, which fills the gap of relevant research in mountainous areas with high population density and high humidity.

Spatial and Temporal Exposure Assessment to PM2.5 in a Community Using Sensor-Based Air Monitoring Instruments and Dynamic Population Distributions

This research was to conduct a pilot study for two consecutive days in order to assess fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure of an entire population in a community. We aimed to construct a surveillance system by analyzing the observed spatio-temporal variation of exposure. Guro-gu in Seoul, South Korea, was divided into 2,204 scale grids of 100 m each. Hourly exposure concentrations of PM2.5 were modeled by the inverse distance weighted method, using 24 sensor-based air monitoring instruments and the indoor-to-outdoor concentration ratio. Population distribution was assessed using mobile phone network data and indoor residential rates, according to sex and age over time. Exposure concentration, population distribution, and population exposure were visualized to present spatio-temporal variation. The PM2.5 exposure of the entire population of Guro-gu was calculated by population-weighted average exposure concentration. The average concentration of outdoor PM2.5 was 42.1 µg/m3, which was lower than the value of the beta attenuation monitor measured by fixed monitoring station. Indoor concentration was estimated using an indoor-to-outdoor PM2.5 concentration ratio of 0.747. The population-weighted average exposure concentration of PM2.5 was 32.4 µg/m3. Thirty-one percent of the population exceeded the Korean Atmospheric Environmental Standard for PM2.5 over a 24 h average period. The results of this study can be used in a long-term aggregate and cumulative PM2.5 exposure assessment, and as a basis for policy decisions on public health management among policymakers and stakeholders.