Non-linear effect of different humidity types on scrub typhus occurrence in endemic provinces, Thailand

Associations of meteorological factors and dynamics of scrub typhus incidence in South Korea: A nationwide time-series study

Scrub typhus, also known as Tsutsugamushi disease, is a climate-sensitive vector-borne disease that poses a growing public health threat. However, studies on the association between scrub typhus epidemics and meteorological factors in South Korea need to be complemented. Therefore, we aimed to analyze the association among ambient temperature, precipitation, and the incidence of scrub typhus in South Korea. First, we obtained data on the weekly number of scrub typhus cases and concurrent meteorological variables at the city-county level (Si-Gun) in South Korea between 2001 and 2019. Subsequently, a two-stage meta-regression analysis was conducted. In the first stage, we conducted time-series regression analyses using a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to investigate the association between temperature, precipitation, and scrub typhus incidence at each location. In the second stage, we employed a multivariate meta-regression model to combine the association estimates from all municipalities, considering regional indicators, such as mite species distribution, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and urban-rural classification. Weekly mean temperature and weekly total precipitation exhibited a reversed U-shaped nonlinear association with the incidence of scrub typhus. The overall cumulative association with scrub typhus incidence peaked at 18.7 C° (with RRs of 9.73, 95% CI: 5.54-17.10) of ambient temperature (reference 9.7 C°) and 162.0 mm (with RRs of 1.87, 95% CI: 1.02-3.83) of precipitation (reference 2.8 mm), respectively. These findings suggest that meteorological factors contribute to scrub typhus epidemics by interacting with vectors, reservoir hosts, and human behaviors. This information serves as a reference for future public health policies and epidemiological research aimed at controlling scrub typhus infections.

Climate influences scrub typhus occurrence in Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India: analysis of a 15-year dataset

Climate is one of the major factors determining the prevalence and seasonality of vector borne diseases like scrub typhus (ST). We analyzed, the association of the meteorological factors like temperature, rainfall and humidity with scrub typhus using the 15 years scrub typhus data from a tertiary care hospital in Vellore, South India. Demographic data of permanent residents of Vellore, who had IgM ELISA results for scrub typhus for the time period of May 2005 to April 2020 were included. Meteorological data was correlated with the monthly scrub typhus cases; negative binomial regression model was used to predict the relation between scrub typhus occurrence and climate factors. Maximum number of ST cases were reported between the months August and February with October recording the highest number of cases. Elderly people, farmers, agricultural workers and housewives were at higher risk for scrub typhus. For an increase of 1 °C in mean temperature, the monthly ST cases reduced by 18.8% (95% CI - 24.1, - 13.2%). On the contrary, for 1 percent increase in mean relative humidity (RH), there is an increase of 7.6% (95% CI 5.4, 9.9%) of monthly ST cases. Similarly, an increase of 1 mm of rainfall contributed to 0.5 to 0.7% of monthly ST cases (after 2 months) depending on the variables included in the analysis. This study provides information that meteorological factors influence ST occurrence in Vellore. The rise of scrub typhus cases is maximal 2 months post rainfall. Whereas a rise in relative humidity, causes a rise in scrub typhus cases in same month, while rise in temperature has a negative impact on scrub typhus during the same month. These findings based on a retrospective analysis need validation by prospective studies.

Exploring the effects and interactions of meteorological factors on the incidence of scrub typhus in Ganzhou City, 2008-2021

BACKGROUND

Scrub typhus poses a substantial risk to human life and wellbeing as it is transmitted by vectors. Although the correlation between climate and vector-borne diseases has been investigated, the impact of climate on scrub typhus remains inadequately comprehended. The objective of this study is to investigate the influence of meteorological conditions on the occurrence of scrub typhus in Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Province.  METHODS: From January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2021, we gathered weekly records of scrub typhus prevalence alongside meteorological data in Ganzhou city. In order to investigate the correlation between meteorological factors and scrub typhus incidence, we utilized distributional lag nonlinear models and generalized additive models for our analysis.

RESULTS

Between 2008 and 2021, a total of 5942 cases of scrub typhus were recorded in Ganzhou City. The number of females affected exceeded that of males, with a male-to-female ratio of 1:1.86. Based on the median values of these meteorological factors, the highest relative risk for scrub typhus occurrence was observed when the weekly average temperature reached 26 °C, the weekly average relative humidity was 75%, the weekly average sunshine duration lasted for 2 h, and the weekly mean wind speed measured 2 m/s. The respective relative risks for these factors were calculated as 3.816 (95% CI: 1.395-10.438), 1.107 (95% CI: 1.008-1.217), 2.063 (95% CI: 1.022-4.165), and 1.284 (95% CI: 1.01-1.632). Interaction analyses showed that the risk of scrub typhus infection in Ganzhou city escalates with higher weekly average temperature and sunshine duration.

CONCLUSION

The findings of our investigation provide evidence of a correlation between environmental factors and the occurrence of scrub typhus. As a suggestion, utilizing environmental factors as early indicators could be recommended for initiating control measures and response strategies.

Prediction of risk factors for scrub typhus from 2006 to 2019 based on random forest model in Guangzhou, China

OBJECTIVES

Scrub typhus is an increasingly serious public health problem, which is becoming the most common vector-borne disease in Guangzhou. This study aimed to analyse the correlation between scrub typhus incidence and potential factors and rank the importance of influential factors.

METHODS

We collected monthly scrub typhus cases, meteorological variables, rodent density (RD), Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and land use type in Guangzhou from 2006 to 2019. Correlation analysis and a random forest model were used to identify the risk factors for scrub typhus and predict the importance rank of influencing factors related to scrub typhus incidence.

RESULTS

The epidemiological results of the scrub typhus cases in Guangzhou between 2006 and 2019 showed that the incidence rate was on the rise. The results of correlation analysis revealed that a positive relationship between scrub typhus incidence and meteorological factors of mean temperature (T_mean ), accumulative rainfall (RF), relative humidity (RH), sunshine hours (SH), and NDVI, RD, population density, and green land coverage area (all p < 0.001). Additionally, we tested the relationship between the incidence of scrub typhus and the lagging meteorological factors through cross-correlation function, and found that incidence was positively correlated with 1-month lag T_mean , 2-month lag RF, 2-month lag RH, and 6-month lag SH (all p < 0.001). Based on the random forest model, we found that the T_mean was the most important predictor among the influential factors, followed by NDVI.

CONCLUSIONS

Meteorological factors, NDVI, RD, and land use type jointly affect the incidence of scrub typhus in Guangzhou. Our results provide a better understanding of the influential factors correlated with scrub typus, which can improve our capacity for biological monitoring and help public health authorities to formulate disease control strategies.

Forest Matters Most for Hirsutiella zachvatkini (Schluger, 1948): A Survey of Rodent Infestation in Four Localities within the Mazury Lake District, NE Poland

The family Trombiculidae encompasses numerous and widespread mites, the larvae of which are obligatory parasites of vertebrates. Our research objective was to assess how trombiculid burdens on rodents inhabiting three forested and one open area in NE Poland vary in relation to host identity, sex and body size, and how they are influenced by qualities of the habitat. Trapped rodents (n = 240) were measured, weighted and screened for ectoparasites. Apodemus flavicollis (n = 42) and Myodes glareolus (n = 173) harbored a total of 4652 Hirsutiella zachchvatkini larvae. Statistical tests revealed that both prevalence and abundance were significantly higher in voles (93%, 27 larvae/ind.) than in mice (14%, 0.24 larvae/ind.) but there was no effect of host sex. Among the localities, H. zachvatkini was most prevalent (98%) and abundant (41 larvae/ind.) in rodents from the deciduous mixed forest in Tałty compared to fallow land (2.6%, 0.13 larvae/ind.). The highest prevalence and abundance were found in bank voles; in this host species in Tałty, prevalence reached 100% and the mean abundance was >42 larvae/ind. Significant positive correlations were found between the body mass and body length of voles and the number of attached larvae. Our results confirm the sylvan nature of H. zachvatkini and its preference for bank voles inhabiting deciduous forests with rich and humid undergrowth. The lack of a sex bias and the moderate correlation between mite burden and host size are in line with observations already made on other rodent-associated Trombiculidae.

Co-effects of global climatic dynamics and local climatic factors on scrub typhus in mainland China based on a nine-year time-frequency analysis

Background

Scrub Typhus (ST) is a rickettsial disease caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi. The number of ST cases has been increasing in China during the past decades, which attracts great concerns of the public health.

Methods

We obtained monthly documented ST cases greater than 54 cases in 434 counties of China during 2012-2020. Spatiotemporal wavelet analysis was conducted to identify the ST clusters with similar pattern of the temporal variation and explore the association between ST variation and El Niño and La Niña events. Wavelet coherency analysis and partial wavelet coherency analysis was employed to further explore the co-effects of global and local climatic factors on ST.

Results

Wavelet cluster analysis detected seven clusters in China, three of which are mainly distributed in Eastern China, while the other four clusters are located in the Southern China. Among the seven clusters, summer and autumn-winter peak of ST are the two main outbreak periods; while stable and fluctuated periodic feature of ST series was found at 12-month and 4-(or 6-) month according to the wavelet power spectra. Similarly, the three-character bands were also found in the associations between ST and El Niño and La Niña events, among which the 12-month period band showed weakest climate-ST association and the other two bands owned stronger association, indicating that the global climate dynamics may have short-term effects on the ST variations. Meanwhile, 12-month period band with strong association was found between the four local climatic factors (precipitation, pressure, relative humidity and temperature) and the ST variations. Further, partial wavelet coherency analysis suggested that global climatic dynamics dominate annual ST variations, while local climatic factors dominate the small periods.

Conclusion

The ST variations are not directly attributable to the change in large-scale climate. The existence of these plausible climatic determinants stimulates the interests for more insights into the epidemiology of ST, which is important for devising prevention and early warning strategies.

Long-Term PM2.5 Exposure Is Associated with Symptoms of Acute Respiratory Infections among Children under Five Years of Age in Kenya, 2014

Introduction: Short-term exposures to air pollutants such as particulate matter (PM) have been associated with increased risk for symptoms of acute respiratory infections (ARIs). Less well understood is how long-term exposures to fine PM (PM2.5) might increase risk of ARIs and their symptoms. This research uses georeferenced Demographic Health Survey (DHS) data from Kenya (2014) along with a remote sensing based raster of PM2.5 concentrations to test associations between PM2.5 exposure and ARI symptoms in children for up to 12 monthly lags. Methods: Predicted PM2.5 concentrations were extracted from raster of monthly averages for latitude/longitude locations of survey clusters. These data and other environmental and demographic data were used in a logistic regression model of ARI symptoms within a distributed lag nonlinear modeling framework (DLNM) to test lag associations of PM2.5 exposure with binary presence/absence of ARI symptoms in the previous two weeks. Results: Out of 7036 children under five for whom data were available, 46.8% reported ARI symptoms in the previous two weeks. Exposure to PM2.5 within the same month and as an average for the previous 12 months was 18.31 and 22.1 µg/m3, respectively, far in excess of guidelines set by the World Health Organization. One-year average PM2.5 exposure was higher for children who experienced ARI symptoms compared with children who did not (22.4 vs. 21.8 µg/m3, p < 0.0001.) Logistic regression models using the DLNM framework indicated that while PM exposure was not significantly associated with ARI symptoms for early lags, exposure to high concentrations of PM2.5 (90th percentile) was associated with elevated odds for ARI symptoms along a gradient of lag exposure time even when controlling for age, sex, types of cooking fuels, and precipitation. Conclusions: Long-term exposure to high concentrations of PM2.5 may increase risk for acute respiratory problems in small children. However, more work should be carried out to increase capacity to accurately measure air pollutants in emerging economies such as Kenya.

Orientia tsutsugamushi dynamics in vectors and hosts: ecology and risk factors for foci of scrub typhus transmission in northern Thailand

Background

Scrub typhus is an important neglected vector-borne zoonotic disease across the Asia–Pacific region, with an expanding known distribution. The disease ecology is poorly understood, despite the large global burden of disease. The key determinants of high-risk areas of transmission to humans are unknown.

Methods

Small mammals and chiggers were collected over an 18-month period at three sites of differing ecological profiles with high scrub typhus transmission in Chiang Rai Province, northern Thailand. Field samples were identified and tested for Orientia tsutsugamushi by real-time PCR. The rates and dynamics of infection were recorded, and positive and negative individuals were mapped over time at the scale of single villages. Ecological analyses were performed to describe the species richness, community structure and interactions between infected and uninfected species and habitats. Generalised linear modelling (GLM) was applied to examine these interactions.

Results

The site with the highest rates of human infection was associated with the highest number of infected chigger pools (41%), individual chiggers (16%), proportion of the known vector species Leptotrombidium deliense (71%) and chigger index (151). Chigger species diversity was lowest (Shannon diversity index H′: 1.77) and rodent density appeared to be high. There were no consistent discrete foci of infection identified at any of the study sites. The small mammals Rattus tanezumi and Bandicota indica and the chiggers L. deliense and Walchia kritochaeta emerged as central nodes in the network analysis. In the GLM, the end of the dry season, and to a lesser extent the end of the wet season, was associated with O. tsutsugamushi-infected small mammals and chiggers. A clear positive association was seen between O. tsutsugamushi-positive chigger pools and the combination of O. tsutsugamushi-positive chigger pools and O. tsutsugamushi-positive small mammals with lowland habitats.

Conclusions

These findings begin to reveal some of the factors that may determine high-risk foci of scrub typhus at a fine local scale. Understanding these factors may allow practical public health interventions to reduce disease risk. Further studies are needed in areas with diverse ecology.

Graphical abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-021-05042-4.

Seasonal abundance of Leptotrombidium deliense, the vector of scrub typhus, in areas reporting acute encephalitis syndrome in Gorakhpur district, Uttar Pradesh, India

The rickettsial pathogen Orientia tsutsugamushi, causing scrub typhus, has been implicated as a major cause of acute encephalitis syndrome (AES) in many places in India including Gorakhpur district of Uttar Pradesh. Seasonal abundance of the principal vector mite of the pathogen, Leptotrombidium deliense, its animal hosts, and prevalence of infection on them are important attributes in the assessment of outbreaks of the disease. Hence, these aspects were investigated, seasonally, in rural villages of Gorakhpur district, where peak incidence of AES cases were reported. A total of 903 animals (rodents/shrews) was collected using 6484 Sherman traps in eight study villages (14% overall trap rate). A sum of 5526 trombiculid mites comprising 12 species was collected from 676 live rodents/shrews screened. Suncus murinus, the Asian house shrew was the predominant species (67%). Among trombiculids, the principal vector mite, L. deliense, was predominant (64.7%) and its infestation index (i.e., average number of chiggers per host animal) was 5.3. The L. deliense infestation index was higher during July to November with a peak in October. Out of 401 animal sera samples screened, 68% were positive for antibodies against O. tsutsugamushi. Of 465 blood samples tested by nested PCR, seven were positive for the 56 kDa gene of O. tsutsugamushi. In conventional PCR, 41 out of 265 samples were positive for the 60 kDa groEL gene of O. tsutsugamushi. Among the 5526 mite samples, tested as 352 pools through nested PCR, four pools were positive for 56 kDa gene. Phylogenetic analysis of 56 and 60 kDa genes confirmed circulation of Karp and TA678 (rodents) and TA678 (mite) serotypes of O. tsutsugamushi in Gorakhpur. Peak incidence of AES in Gorakhpur district occurs during the rainy season (July-October), coinciding with the peak abundance of L. deliense. These results indicate involvement of L. deliense as the vector mite transmitting the scrub typhus pathogen O. tsutsugamushi to humans in the rural areas of Gorakhpur district, India.