Wan J, Wang B, Hu Y, Jia C. The impact of risk perception and preference on farmland transfer-out: Evidence from a survey of farm households in China.
Heliyon 2023;
9:e19837. [PMID:
37809577 PMCID:
PMC10559202 DOI:
10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e19837]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2022] [Revised: 08/27/2023] [Accepted: 09/03/2023] [Indexed: 10/10/2023] Open
Abstract
This study examines the impact of farmers' risk perceptions on their decision to transfer-out farmland, as well as the variations in this influence based on different risk preferences. The research utilizes survey data from 1389 farmers in rural China. By expanding the decision-making model for farmer households within the context of risk perception, this paper analyzes the equilibrium point of farmers' decision-making using mathematical models. Employing the Probit and Tobit models with instrumental variable methods, we discovered that farmers' perceptions of land revenue risk, land use risk, and non-farm employment risk significantly hindered the decision and rate of farmland transfer-out. Notably, the inhibitory effect decreased progressively. Moreover, risk preference was found to moderates the negative impacts. However, it is worth noting that risk perception remains a crucial factor impeding farmland transfer, primarily due to the prevalence of neutral or risk-averse risk preferences among most farmers. This study presents a novel perspective and explanatory framework for development of the farmland circulation market, aiming to overcome existing challenges from a risk-oriented standpoint. Consequently, it is essential for the government to carefully address all risks associated with farmland transfer, enhance the income guarantee system for farmers post-transfer, and offer non-farm employment training and job opportunities to facilitate the healthy and rapid development of the agricultural land transfer market.
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