Long-term follow-up of Branch-Duct Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms with negative Sendai Criteria: the therapeutic challenge of patients who convert to positive Sendai Criteria

Towards a Simplified and Cost-Effective Diagnostic Algorithm for the Surveillance of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms (IPMNs): Can We Save Contrast for Later?

The increased detection of pancreatic cysts in recent years has triggered extensive diagnostic investigations to clarify their potential risk of malignancy, resulting in a large number of patients undergoing numerous imaging follow-up studies for many years. Therefore, there is a growing need for optimization of the current surveillance protocol to reduce both healthcare costs and waiting lists, while still maintaining appropriate sensibility and specificity. Imaging is an essential tool for evaluating patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) since it can assess several predictors for malignancy and thus guide further management recommendations. Although contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) has been widely recommended by most international guidelines, recent results support the use of unenhanced abbreviated-MRI (A-MRI) protocols as a surveillance tool in patients with IPMN. In fact, A-MRI has shown high diagnostic performance in malignant detection, with high sensitivity and specificity as well as excellent interobserver agreement. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to discuss the current available evidence on whether the implementation of an abbreviated-MRI (A-MRI) protocol for cystic pancreatic lesion surveillance could improve healthcare economics and reduce waiting lists in clinical practice without significantly reducing diagnostic accuracy.

Are the screening guidelines for branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms cost-effective in an Australian setting?

BACKGROUNDS

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) are cystic neoplasms of the pancreatic ductal system. These incidental cystic lesions are increasingly found on radiological imaging and screened for malignant transformation. The Fukuoka consensus guidelines recommend screening with computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging or endoscopic ultrasound. Branch duct IPMN (BD-IPMN) have significantly lower malignancy and mortality rates compared to main duct IPMN. Our aim was to assess the cost-effectiveness of guideline's recommendations for BD-IPMN screening of cysts between 2 and 3 cm in an Australian context.

METHODS

Markov model decision analysis was used to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of screening. The ICER was compared to a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of $50 000. We performed scenario analysis to examine the effect of cyst size and non-linearity of malignancy rate on ICER. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were performed on our input parameters.

RESULTS

Screening resulted in 586 quality adjusted life years gained and a net present value of $20 379 939, resulting in a base-case ICER of $34 758. After scenario analysis for non-linearity of malignancy rate the ICER increases to $64 555, which is above the WTP threshold. PSA indicates that ICER is most susceptible to the pre-test malignancy rate.

CONCLUSION

This cost analysis demonstrates that screening of 2-3 cm BD-IPMN according to current guidelines is unlikely to be cost-effective in an Australian context. To determine the true ICER, a cost analysis on real-world data is required.