Could Cirrus Clouds Have Warmed Early Mars?

Feasibility of keeping Mars warm with nanoparticles

One-third of Mars' surface has shallow-buried H2O, but it is currently too cold for use by life. Proposals to warm Mars using greenhouse gases require a large mass of ingredients that are rare on Mars' surface. However, we show here that artificial aerosols made from materials that are readily available at Mars-for example, conductive nanorods that are ~9 micrometers long-could warm Mars >5 × 103 time smore effectively than the best gases. Such nanoparticles forward-scatter sunlight and efficiently block upwelling thermal infrared. Like the natural dust of Mars, they are swept high into Mars' atmosphere, allowing delivery from the near-surface. For a 10-year particle lifetime, two climate models indicate that sustained release at 30 liters per second would globally warm Mars by ≳30 kelvin and start to melt the ice. Therefore, if nanoparticles can be made at scale on (or delivered to) Mars, then the barrier to warming of Mars appears to be less high than previously thought.

Changing spatial distribution of water flow charts major change in Mars's greenhouse effect

Early Mars had rivers, but the cause of Mars's wet-to-dry transition remains unknown. Past climate on Mars can be probed using the spatial distribution of climate-sensitive landforms. We analyzed global databases of water-worked landforms and identified changes in the spatial distribution of rivers over time. These changes are simply explained by comparison to a simplified meltwater model driven by an ensemble of global climate model simulations, as the result of ≳10 K global cooling, from global average surface temperature [Formula: see text] ≥ 268 K to [Formula: see text] ~ 258 K, due to a weaker greenhouse effect. In other words, river-forming climates on early Mars were warm and wet first, and cold and wet later. Unexpectedly, analysis of the greenhouse effect within our ensemble of global climate model simulations suggests that this shift was primarily driven by waning non-CO₂ radiative forcing, and not changes in CO₂ radiative forcing.

Warm early Mars surface enabled by high-altitude water ice clouds

Despite receiving just 30% of the Earth's present-day insolation, Mars had water lakes and rivers early in the planet's history, due to an unknown warming mechanism. A possible explanation for the >102-y-long lake-forming climates is warming by water ice clouds. However, this suggested cloud greenhouse explanation has proved difficult to replicate and has been argued to require unrealistically optically thick clouds at high altitudes. Here, we use a global climate model (GCM) to show that a cloud greenhouse can warm a Mars-like planet to global average annual-mean temperature ([Formula: see text]) ∼265 K, which is warm enough for low-latitude lakes, and stay warm for centuries or longer, but only if the planet has spatially patchy surface water sources. Warm, stable climates involve surface ice (and low clouds) only at locations much colder than the average surface temperature. At locations horizontally distant from these surface cold traps, clouds are found only at high altitudes, which maximizes warming. Radiatively significant clouds persist because ice particles sublimate as they fall, moistening the subcloud layer so that modest updrafts can sustain relatively large amounts of cloud. The resulting climates are arid (area-averaged surface relative humidity ∼25%). In a warm, arid climate, lakes could be fed by groundwater upwelling, or by melting of ice following a cold-to-warm transition. Our results are consistent with the warm and arid climate favored by interpretation of geologic data, and support the cloud greenhouse hypothesis.