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Zhang L, Xiong S, Zhu S, Tian J, Chen Q, Luo X, Guo H. Construction of Prediction Model of Foodborne Disease Outbreaks and Its Trend Prediction - Guizhou Province, China, 2023-2025. China CDC Wkly 2024; 6:408-412. [PMID: 38737480 PMCID: PMC11082649 DOI: 10.46234/ccdcw2024.079] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2024] [Accepted: 04/09/2024] [Indexed: 05/14/2024] Open
Abstract
Objective Foodborne diseases pose a significant public health concern globally. This study aims to analyze the correlation between disease prevalence and climatic conditions, forecast the pattern of foodborne disease outbreaks, and offer insights for effective prevention and control strategies and optimizing health resource allocation policies in Guizhou Province. Methods This study utilized the χ2 test and four comprehensive prediction models to analyze foodborne disease outbreaks recorded in the Guizhou Foodborne Disease Outbreak system between 2012 and 2022. The best-performing model was chosen to forecast the trend of foodborne disease outbreaks in Guizhou Province, 2023-2025. Results Significant variations were observed in the incidence of foodborne disease outbreaks in Guizhou Province concerning various meteorological factors (all P≤0.05). Among all models, the SARIMA-ARIMAX combined model demonstrated the most accurate predictive performance (RMSE: Prophet model=67.645, SARIMA model=3.953, ARIMAX model=26.544, SARIMA-ARIMAX model=26.196; MAPE: Prophet model=42.357%, SARIMA model=37.740%, ARIMAX model=15.289%, SARIMA-ARIMAX model=13.961%). Conclusion The analysis indicates that foodborne disease outbreaks in Guizhou Province demonstrate distinct seasonal patterns. It is recommended to concentrate prevention efforts during peak periods. The SARIMA-ARIMAX hybrid model enhances the precision of monthly forecasts for foodborne disease outbreaks, offering valuable insights for future prevention and control strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li Zhang
- Institute of Public Health Surveillance and Evaluation, Guizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guiyang City, Guizhou Province, China
- School of Public Health, Guizhou Medical University. Guiyang City, Guizhou Province, China
| | - Sufang Xiong
- Institute of Public Health Surveillance and Evaluation, Guizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guiyang City, Guizhou Province, China
- School of Public Health, Guizhou Medical University. Guiyang City, Guizhou Province, China
| | - Shu Zhu
- Institute of Public Health Surveillance and Evaluation, Guizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guiyang City, Guizhou Province, China
| | - Jigui Tian
- Institute of Public Health Surveillance and Evaluation, Guizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guiyang City, Guizhou Province, China
| | - Qingyuan Chen
- Institute of Public Health Surveillance and Evaluation, Guizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guiyang City, Guizhou Province, China
| | - Xiaobo Luo
- School of Public Health, Guizhou Medical University. Guiyang City, Guizhou Province, China
| | - Hua Guo
- Institute of Public Health Surveillance and Evaluation, Guizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guiyang City, Guizhou Province, China
- School of Public Health, Guizhou Medical University. Guiyang City, Guizhou Province, China
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Tambuzzi S, Maciocco F, Gentile G, Boracchi M, Bailo P, Marchesi M, Zoja R. Applications of microbiology to different forensic scenarios - A narrative review. J Forensic Leg Med 2023; 98:102560. [PMID: 37451142 DOI: 10.1016/j.jflm.2023.102560] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2022] [Accepted: 07/09/2023] [Indexed: 07/18/2023]
Abstract
In contrast to other forensic disciplines, forensic microbiology is still too often considered a "side activity" and is not able to make a real and concrete contribution to forensic investigations. Indeed, the various application aspects of this discipline still remain a niche activity and, as a result, microbiological investigations are often omitted or only approximated, in part due to poor report in the literature. However, in certain situations, forensic microbiology can prove to be extremely effective, if not crucial, when all other disciplines fail. Precisely because microorganisms can represent forensic evidence, in this narrative review all the major pathological forensic applications described in the literature have been presented. The goal of our review is to highlight the versatility and transversality of microbiology in forensic science and to provide a comprehensive source of literature to refer to when needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stefano Tambuzzi
- Dipartimento di Scienze Biomediche per la Salute, Sezione di Medicina Legale e delle Assicurazioni, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Luigi Mangiagalli, 37, 20133, Milano, Italy
| | - Francesca Maciocco
- Azienda Ospedaliera "San Carlo Borromeo", Servizio di Immunoematologia e Medicina Trasfusionale (SIMT), Via Pio II°, n. 3, Milano, Italy
| | - Guendalina Gentile
- Dipartimento di Scienze Biomediche per la Salute, Sezione di Medicina Legale e delle Assicurazioni, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Luigi Mangiagalli, 37, 20133, Milano, Italy.
| | - Michele Boracchi
- Dipartimento di Scienze Biomediche per la Salute, Sezione di Medicina Legale e delle Assicurazioni, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Luigi Mangiagalli, 37, 20133, Milano, Italy
| | | | - Matteo Marchesi
- ASST Papa Giovanni XXIII, Piazza OMS 1, 24127, Bergamo, Italy
| | - Riccardo Zoja
- Dipartimento di Scienze Biomediche per la Salute, Sezione di Medicina Legale e delle Assicurazioni, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Luigi Mangiagalli, 37, 20133, Milano, Italy
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Mikhaylova Y, Shelenkov A, Chernyshkov A, Tyumentseva M, Saenko S, Egorova A, Manzeniuk I, Akimkin V. Whole-Genome Analysis of Staphylococcus aureus Isolates from Ready-to-Eat Food in Russia. Foods 2022; 11:foods11172574. [PMID: 36076759 PMCID: PMC9455289 DOI: 10.3390/foods11172574] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2022] [Revised: 08/09/2022] [Accepted: 08/22/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
This study provides a thorough investigation of a diverse set of antimicrobial resistant (AMR) Staphylococcus aureus isolates collected from a broad range of ready-to-eat (RTE) food in various geographic regions of Russia ranging from Pskov to Kamchatka. Thirty-five isolates were characterized using the whole genome sequencing (WGS) analysis in terms of clonal structure, the presence of resistance and virulence determinants, as well as plasmid replicon sequences and CRISPR/Cas systems. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first WGS-based surveillance of Russian RTE food-associated S. aureus isolates. The isolates belonged to fifteen different multilocus sequence typing (MLST)-based types with a predominant being the ones of clonal complex (CC) 22. The isolates studied can pose a threat to public health since about 40% of the isolates carried at least one enterotoxin gene, and 70% of methicillin-resistant (MRSA) isolates carried a tsst1 gene encoding a toxin that may cause severe acute disease. In addition, plasmid analysis revealed some important characteristics, e.g., Rep5 and Rep20 plasmid replicons were a “signature” of MRSA CC22. By analyzing the isolates belonging to the same/single strain based on cgMLST analysis, we were able to identify the differences in their accessory genomes marking their dynamics and plasticity. This data is very important since S. aureus isolates studied and RTE food, in general, represent an important route of transmission and dissemination of multiple pathogenic determinants. We believe that the results obtained will facilitate performing epidemiological surveillance and developing protection measures against this important pathogen in community settings.
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Lund BM. Provision of microbiologically safe food for vulnerable people in hospitals, care homes and in the community. Food Control 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.foodcont.2018.09.032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/26/2022]
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Food Safety Instruction Improves Knowledge and Behavior Risk and Protection Factors for Foodborne Illnesses in Pregnant Populations. Matern Child Health J 2018; 21:1686-1698. [PMID: 28224397 DOI: 10.1007/s10995-017-2291-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Abstract
Objective This study compared knowledge and food-handling behavior after pathogen-specific (experimental treatment) versus basic food safety instruction (active control) presented during nutrition education classes for low-income English- and Spanish-language pregnant women. Methods Subjects (n = 550) were randomly assigned to treatment groups in two different locations in the United States. Food safety instruction was part of an 8-lesson curriculum. Food safety knowledge and behavior were measured pre/post intervention. Descriptive data were analyzed by Chi-Square or ANOVA; changes after intervention were analyzed by regression analysis. Results Knowledge improved after intervention in the pathogen-specific treatment group compared to active control, especially among Spanish-language women. Behavior change after intervention for the pathogen-specific treatment group improved for thermometer usage, refrigeration and consumption of foods at high risk for safety; however, all other improvements in behavior were accounted for by intervention regardless of treatment group. As expected, higher pre-instruction behavioral competency limited potential gain in behavior post-instruction due to a ceiling effect. This effect was more dominant among English-language women. Improvements were also linked to formal education completed, a partner at home, and other children in the home. Conclusions for Practice This study demonstrated that pathogen-specific food safety instruction leads to enhance knowledge and food handling behaviors that may improve the public health of pregnant women and their unborn children, especially among Spanish-language women. More importantly, food safety instruction, even at the most basic level, benefited pregnant women's food safety knowledge and food-handling behavior after intervention.
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McCoy SM, Campbell KL, Lassemillante ACM, Wallen MP, Fawcett J, Jarrett M, Macdonald GA, Hickman IJ. Changes in dietary patterns and body composition within 12 months of liver transplantation. Hepatobiliary Surg Nutr 2017; 6:317-326. [PMID: 29152478 DOI: 10.21037/hbsn.2017.01.12] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
Background Cardiometabolic risk factors are increasing in liver transplant recipients (LTR). Influencing dietary factors have not been assessed. The aim of this observational study was to assess changes in weight, metabolic function, dietary intake and eating behaviours in the first year after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). Methods Consecutive recruitment of 17 patients (14 males) awaiting OLT at a single tertiary hospital. Dietary intake, food behaviours and anthropometry were recorded at baseline, and 6 and 12 months post-transplant. Results By 12 months, patients had gained on average 7.3% of body weight. The prevalence of overweight or obesity increased from baseline 53% to 77% (P=0.001). By 6 months, 65% (n=11/17) of patients had altered glucose metabolism. Dietary intake was consistent with a Western-style dietary pattern with high saturated fat. Over half of the patients (69%, n=11/16) reported low to no depressive feelings and rated their self-esteem as good (53%, n=9/16). The Power of Food Scale increased between pre and post-transplant, indicating a stronger appetitive drive. Conclusions Weight gain occurs early post-transplant, with significant metabolic dysfunction present within 6 months, however is not associated with significant psychological distress. Early dietary intervention designed to limit weight gain and target cardiometabolic health is recommended for this unique patient population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simone M McCoy
- Department of Nutrition and Dietetics, Princess Alexandra Hospital, Woolloongabba, QLD, Australia
| | - Katrina L Campbell
- Department of Nutrition and Dietetics, Princess Alexandra Hospital, Woolloongabba, QLD, Australia.,Bond Institute of Health and Sport, Faculty of Health Sciences and Medicine, Bond University, Gold Coast, QLD, Australia
| | | | - Matthew P Wallen
- School of Human Movement and Nutrition Sciences, the University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD, Australia
| | - Jonathan Fawcett
- Queensland Liver Transplant Service, Princess Alexandra Hospital, Woolloongabba, QLD, Australia
| | - Maree Jarrett
- Queensland Liver Transplant Service, Princess Alexandra Hospital, Woolloongabba, QLD, Australia
| | - Graeme A Macdonald
- Department of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Princess Alexandra Hospital, Woolloongabba, QLD, Australia
| | - Ingrid J Hickman
- Department of Nutrition and Dietetics, Princess Alexandra Hospital, Woolloongabba, QLD, Australia.,Mater Research Institute, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
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Abstract
Although death from food is not an uncommon finding in forensic facilities worldwide, the range of underlying lethal mechanisms and associated conditions that should be sought at the time of autopsy is quite disparate. Deaths may occur from i) infectious agents including bacteria, viruses, protozoa, cestodes, nematodes and prions; ii) natural toxins including amanita toxins, tetrodotoxin, ciguatera and scombroid; iii) anaphylaxis; iv) poisoning; v) mechanical issues around airway and gut obstruction and/or perforation; and vi) miscellaneous causes. Food-related deaths are important in terms of global mortality, and thus autopsies need to be comprehensive with full ancillary testing. Medicolegal matters may involve issues concerning likely exposure to infectious agents, possible foods ingested, the declared content and possible components of food, the significance of toxicological analyses, and aspects of duty of care in cases of café coronary syndrome and gastroenteritis while in care.
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Affiliation(s)
- Roger W Byard
- School of Medicine, The University of Adelaide, Level 3 Medical School North Building, Frome Road, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia.
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Sergelidis D, Angelidis AS. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus: a controversial food-borne pathogen. Lett Appl Microbiol 2017; 64:409-418. [PMID: 28304109 DOI: 10.1111/lam.12735] [Citation(s) in RCA: 108] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2016] [Revised: 03/10/2017] [Accepted: 03/11/2017] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a major cause of severe healthcare-associated (HA) infections. Although during the last decade the incidence of HA invasive infections has dropped, the incidence of community-associated MRSA (CA-MRSA) infections has risen among the general population. Moreover, CA-MRSA, livestock-associated MRSA (LA-MRSA) and HA-MRSA (HA-MRSA) can be found in foods intended for human consumption. Several studies from different geographical areas have reported the presence of enterotoxin genes in several MRSA food isolates. Molecular typing studies have revealed genetic relatedness of these enterotoxigenic isolates with isolates incriminated in human infections. The contamination sources for foods, especially animal-origin foods, may be livestock as well as humans involved in animal husbandry and food-processing. Under favourable environmental conditions for growth and enterotoxin production, enterotoxigenic S. aureus isolates present in foods can cause staphylococcal food poisoning (SFP), irrespective of the contamination origin. Owing to the typically moderate clinical manifestations of SFP, the S. aureus strains responsible for SFP (cases or outbreaks) are frequently either not identified or not further characterized. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing is rarely performed, because administration of antimicrobial therapy is not required in the vast majority of cases. Staphylococcal food poisoning is the result of consumption of foods with preformed enterotoxins. Hence, similar to methicillin-sensitive enterotoxigenic S. aureus, enterotoxigenic MRSA can also act as food-borne pathogens upon favourable conditions for growth and enterotoxin production. The severity of the intoxication is not related to the antimicrobial resistance profile of the causative S. aureus strain and therefore MRSA food-borne outbreaks are not expected to be more severe. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY This review evaluates the potential of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) as food-borne pathogens based on the current knowledge about the epidemiology of MRSA, their prevalence in livestock, foods of animal origin and humans, and their ability to produce enterotoxins.
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Affiliation(s)
- D Sergelidis
- Laboratory of Hygiene of Foods of Animal Origin, School of Veterinary Medicine, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - A S Angelidis
- Laboratory of Milk Hygiene and Technology, School of Veterinary Medicine, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
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Lund BM. Microbiological Food Safety for Vulnerable People. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2015; 12:10117-32. [PMID: 26308030 PMCID: PMC4555333 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph120810117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2015] [Revised: 08/11/2015] [Accepted: 08/14/2015] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
Foodborne pathogens are more likely to cause infection and to result in serious consequences in vulnerable people than in healthy adults. People with some increase in susceptibility may form nearly 20% of the population in the UK and the USA. Conditions leading to increased susceptibility are listed. The main factors leading to foodborne disease caused by major pathogens are outlined and examples are given of outbreaks resulting from these factors. Measures to prevent foodborne disease include procedures based on Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point principles and prerequisite programmes and, especially for vulnerable people, the use of lower-risk foods in place of higher-risk products.
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Affiliation(s)
- Barbara M Lund
- Institute of Food Research, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7UA, UK,.
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