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Knight J, Wang S, Mishra S. Adjusting for hidden biases in sexual behaviour data: a mechanistic approach. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2023:2023.08.16.23294164. [PMID: 37645768 PMCID: PMC10462199 DOI: 10.1101/2023.08.16.23294164] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/31/2023]
Abstract
Background Two required inputs to mathematical models of sexually transmitted infections are the average duration in epidemiological risk states (e.g., selling sex) and the average rates of sexual partnership change. These variables are often only available as aggregate estimates from published cross-sectional studies, and may be subject to distributional, sampling, censoring, and measurement biases. Methods We explore adjustments for these biases using aggregate estimates of duration in sex work and numbers of reported sexual partners from a published 2011 survey of female sex worker in Eswatini. We develop adjustments from first principles, and construct Bayesian hierarchical models to reflect our mechanistic assumptions about the bias-generating processes. Results We show that different mechanisms of bias for duration in sex work may "cancel out" by acting in opposite directions, but that failure to consider some mechanisms could over- or underestimate duration in sex work by factors approaching 2. We also show that conventional interpretations of sexual partner numbers are biased due to implicit assumptions about partnership duration, but that unbiased estimators of partnership change rate can be defined that explicitly incorporate a given partnership duration. We highlight how the unbiased estimator is most important when the survey recall period and partnership duration are similar in length. Conclusions While we explore these bias adjustments using a particular dataset, and in the context of deriving inputs for mathematical modelling, we expect that our approach and insights would be applicable to other datasets and motivations for quantifying sexual behaviour data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jesse Knight
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto
- MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto
| | - Siyi Wang
- MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto
| | - Sharmistha Mishra
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto
- MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Toronto
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation & Division of Epidemiology, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto
- Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Ontario
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Bragazzi NL, Woldegerima WA, Iyaniwura SA, Han Q, Wang X, Shausan A, Badu K, Okwen P, Prescod C, Westin M, Omame A, Converti M, Mellado B, Wu J, Kong JD. Knowing the unknown: The underestimation of monkeypox cases. Insights and implications from an integrative review of the literature. Front Microbiol 2022; 13:1011049. [PMID: 36246252 PMCID: PMC9563713 DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2022.1011049] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2022] [Accepted: 09/06/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Monkeypox is an emerging zoonotic disease caused by the monkeypox virus, which is an infectious agent belonging to the genus Orthopoxvirus. Currently, commencing from the end of April 2022, an outbreak of monkeypox is ongoing, with more than 43,000 cases reported as of 23 August 2022, involving 99 countries and territories across all the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions. On 23 July 2022, the Director-General of the WHO declared monkeypox a global public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC), since the outbreak represents an extraordinary, unusual, and unexpected event that poses a significant risk for international spread, requiring an immediate, coordinated international response. However, the real magnitude of the burden of disease could be masked by failures in ascertainment and under-detection. As such, underestimation affects the efficiency and reliability of surveillance and notification systems and compromises the possibility of making informed and evidence-based policy decisions in terms of the adoption and implementation of ad hoc adequate preventive measures. In this review, synthesizing 53 papers, we summarize the determinants of the underestimation of sexually transmitted diseases, in general, and, in particular, monkeypox, in terms of all their various components and dimensions (under-ascertainment, underreporting, under-detection, under-diagnosis, misdiagnosis/misclassification, and under-notification).
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicola Luigi Bragazzi
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
- *Correspondence: Nicola Luigi Bragazzi,
| | - Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Sarafa Adewale Iyaniwura
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
| | - Qing Han
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Xiaoying Wang
- Department of Mathematics, Trent University, Peterborough, ON, Canada
| | - Aminath Shausan
- School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Queensland, Saint Lucia, QLD, Australia
| | - Kingsley Badu
- Vector-borne Infectious Disease Group, Theoretical and Applied Biology, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | | | - Cheryl Prescod
- Black Creek Community Health Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | | | - Andrew Omame
- Department of Mathematics, Federal University of Technology, Owerri, Nigeria
- Abdus Salam School of Mathematical Sciences, Government College University, Lahore, Pakistan
| | | | - Bruce Mellado
- School of Physics and Institute for Collider Particle Physics, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Subatomic Physics, iThemba Laboratory for Accelerator Based Sciences, Somerset West, South Africa
| | - Jianhong Wu
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Jude Dzevela Kong
- Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
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Silhol R, Coupland H, Baggaley RF, Miller L, Staadegaard L, Gottlieb SL, Stannah J, Turner KME, Vickerman P, Hayes R, Mayaud P, Looker KJ, Boily MC. What Is the Burden of Heterosexually Acquired HIV Due to HSV-2? Global and Regional Model-Based Estimates of the Proportion and Number of HIV Infections Attributable to HSV-2 Infection. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2021; 88:19-30. [PMID: 34117163 PMCID: PMC8397258 DOI: 10.1097/qai.0000000000002743] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2020] [Accepted: 05/20/2021] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Biological and epidemiological evidence suggest that herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) elevates HIV acquisition and transmission risks. We improved previous estimates of the contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infections by using a dynamic transmission model. SETTING World Health Organization regions. METHODS We developed a mathematical model of HSV-2/HIV transmission among 15- to 49-year-old heterosexual, non-drug-injecting populations, calibrated using region-specific demographic and HSV-2/HIV epidemiological data. We derived global and regional estimates of the contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infection over 10 years [the transmission population-attributable fraction (tPAF)] under 3 additive scenarios, assuming: (1) HSV-2 increases only HIV acquisition risk (conservative); (2) HSV-2 also increases HIV transmission risk (liberal); and (3) HIV or antiretroviral therapy (ART) also modifies HSV-2 transmission risk, and HSV-2 decreases ART effect on HIV transmission risk (fully liberal). RESULTS Under the conservative scenario, the predicted tPAF was 37.3% (95% uncertainty interval: 33.4%-43.2%), and an estimated 5.6 (4.5-7.0) million incident heterosexual HIV infections were due to HSV-2 globally over 2009-2018. The contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infections was largest for the African region [tPAF = 42.6% (38.0%-51.2%)] and lowest for the European region [tPAF = 11.2% (7.9%-13.8%)]. The tPAF was higher among female sex workers, their clients, and older populations, reflecting their higher HSV-2 prevalence. The tPAF was approximately 50% and 1.3- to 2.4-fold higher for the liberal or fully liberal scenario than the conservative scenario across regions. CONCLUSION HSV-2 may have contributed to at least 37% of incident HIV infections in the past decade worldwide, and even more in Africa, and may continue to do so despite increased ART access unless future improved HSV-2 control measures, such as vaccines, become available.
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Affiliation(s)
- Romain Silhol
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London
| | - Helen Coupland
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London
| | - Rebecca F. Baggaley
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Department of Respiratory Sciences, University of Leicester
| | - Lori Miller
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Lisa Staadegaard
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London
| | - Sami L. Gottlieb
- Department of Sexual and Reproductive Health and Research, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - James Stannah
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montréal (QC), Canada
| | | | - Peter Vickerman
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
| | - Richard Hayes
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Philippe Mayaud
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Katharine J. Looker
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
| | - Marie-Claude Boily
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London
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