SCHISTOX: An individual based model for the epidemiology and control of schistosomiasis

How Does Treatment Coverage and Proportion Never Treated Influence the Success of Schistosoma mansoni Elimination as a Public Health Problem by 2030?

BACKGROUND

The 2030 target for schistosomiasis is elimination as a public health problem (EPHP), achieved when the prevalence of heavy-intensity infection among school-aged children (SAC) reduces to <1%. To achieve this, the new World Health Organization guidelines recommend a broader target of population to include pre-SAC and adults. However, the probability of achieving EPHP should be expected to depend on patterns in repeated uptake of mass drug administration by individuals.

METHODS

We employed 2 individual-based stochastic models to evaluate the impact of school-based and community-wide treatment and calculated the number of rounds required to achieve EPHP for Schistosoma mansoni by considering various levels of the population never treated (NT). We also considered 2 age-intensity profiles, corresponding to a low and high burden of infection in adults.

RESULTS

The number of rounds needed to achieve this target depends on the baseline prevalence and the coverage used. For low- and moderate-transmission areas, EPHP can be achieved within 7 years if NT ≤10% and NT <5%, respectively. In high-transmission areas, community-wide treatment with NT <1% is required to achieve EPHP.

CONCLUSIONS

The higher the intensity of transmission, and the lower the treatment coverage, the lower the acceptable value of NT becomes. Using more efficacious treatment regimens would permit NT values to be marginally higher. A balance between target treatment coverage and NT values may be an adequate treatment strategy depending on the epidemiological setting, but striving to increase coverage and/or minimize NT can shorten program duration.

Modeling the persistence of Opisthorchis viverrini worm burden after mass-drug administration and education campaigns with systematic adherence

Opisthorchis viverrini is a parasitic liver fluke contracted by consumption of raw fish, which affects over 10 million people in Southeast Asia despite sustained control efforts. Chronic infections are a risk factor for the often fatal bile duct cancer, cholangiocarcinoma. Previous modeling predicted rapid elimination of O. viverrini following yearly mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns. However, field data collected in affected populations shows persistence of infection, including heavy worm burden, after many years of repeated interventions. A plausible explanation for this observation is systematic adherence of individuals in health campaigns, such as MDA and education, with some individuals consistently missing treatment. We developed an agent-based model of O. viverrini which allows us to introduce various heterogeneities including systematic adherence to MDA and education campaigns at the individual level. We validate the agent-based model by comparing it to a previously published population-based model. We estimate the degree of systematic adherence to MDA and education campaigns indirectly, using epidemiological data collected in Lao PDR before and after 5 years of repeated MDA, education and sanitation improvement campaigns. We predict the impact of interventions deployed singly and in combination, with and without the estimated systematic adherence. We show how systematic adherence can substantially increase the time required to achieve reductions in worm burden. However, we predict that yearly MDA campaigns alone can result in a strong reduction of moderate and heavy worm burden, even under systematic adherence. We predict latrines and education campaigns to be particularly important for the reduction in overall prevalence, and therefore, ultimately, elimination. Our findings show how systematic adherence can explain the observed persistence of worm burden; while emphasizing the benefit of interventions for the entire population, even under systematic adherence. At the same time, the results highlight the substantial opportunity to further reduce worm burden if patterns of systematic adherence can be overcome.

Evaluating and mitigating the potential indirect effect of COVID-19 on control programmes for seven neglected tropical diseases: a modelling study

Background

In line with movement restrictions and physical distancing essential for the control of the COVID-19 pandemic, WHO recommended postponement of all neglected tropical disease (NTD) control activities that involve community-based surveys, active case finding, and mass drug administration in April, 2020. Following revised guidance later in 2020, and after interruptions to NTD programmes of varying lengths, NTD programmes gradually restarted in the context of an ongoing pandemic. However, ongoing challenges and service gaps have been reported. This study aimed to evaluate the potential effect of the programmatic interruptions and strategies to mitigate this effect.

Methods

For seven NTDs, namely soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis, and human African trypanosomiasis, we used mathematical transmission models to simulate the effect of programme interruptions on the dynamics of each of these diseases in different endemic settings. We also explored the potential benefit of implementing mitigation strategies, primarily in terms of minimising the delays to control targets.

Findings

We show that the effect of the COVID-19-induced interruption in terms of delay to achieving elimination goals might in some cases be much longer than the duration of the interruption. For schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis, trachoma, and visceral leishmaniasis, a mean delay of 2–3 years for a 1-year interruption is predicted in areas of highest prevalence. We also show that these delays can largely be mitigated by measures such as additional mass drug administration or enhanced case-finding.

Interpretation

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought infectious disease control to the forefront of global consciousness. It is essential that the NTDs, so long neglected in terms of research and financial support, are not overlooked, and remain a priority in health service planning and funding.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Medical Research Council, and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.

Public Health Policy Pillars for the Sustainable Elimination of Zoonotic Schistosomiasis

Schistosomiasis is a parasitic disease acquired through contact with contaminated freshwater. The definitive hosts are terrestrial mammals, including humans, with some Schistosoma species crossing the animal-human boundary through zoonotic transmission. An estimated 12 million people live at risk of zoonotic schistosomiasis caused by Schistosoma japonicum and Schistosoma mekongi, largely in the World Health Organization’s Western Pacific Region and in Indonesia. Mathematical models have played a vital role in our understanding of the biology, transmission, and impact of intervention strategies, however, these have mostly focused on non-zoonotic Schistosoma species. Whilst these non-zoonotic-based models capture some aspects of zoonotic schistosomiasis transmission dynamics, the commonly-used frameworks are yet to adequately capture the complex epi-ecology of multi-host zoonotic transmission. However, overcoming these knowledge gaps goes beyond transmission dynamics modelling. To improve model utility and enhance zoonotic schistosomiasis control programmes, we highlight three pillars that we believe are vital to sustainable interventions at the implementation (community) and policy-level, and discuss the pillars in the context of a One-Health approach, recognising the interconnection between humans, animals and their shared environment. These pillars are: (1) human and animal epi-ecological understanding; (2) economic considerations (such as treatment costs and animal losses); and (3) sociological understanding, including inter- and intra-human and animal interactions. These pillars must be built on a strong foundation of trust, support and commitment of stakeholders and involved institutions.

Maintaining Low Prevalence of Schistosoma mansoni: Modeling the Effect of Less Frequent Treatment

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization previously set goals of controlling morbidity due to schistosomiasis by 2020 and attaining elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) by 2025 (now adjusted to 2030 in the new neglected tropical diseases roadmap). As these milestones are reached, it is important that programs reassess their treatment strategies to either maintain these goals or progress from morbidity control to EPHP and ultimately to interruption of transmission. In this study, we consider different mass drug administration (MDA) strategies to maintain the goals.

METHODS

We used 2 independently developed, individual-based stochastic models of schistosomiasis transmission to assess the optimal treatment strategy of a multiyear program to maintain the morbidity control and the EPHP goals.

RESULTS

We found that, in moderate-prevalence settings, once the morbidity control and EPHP goals are reached it may be possible to maintain the goals using less frequent MDAs than those that are required to achieve the goals. On the other hand, in some high-transmission settings, if control efforts are reduced after achieving the goals, particularly the morbidity control goal, there is a high chance of recrudescence.

CONCLUSIONS

To reduce the risk of recrudescence after the goals are achieved, programs have to re-evaluate their strategies and decide to either maintain these goals with reduced efforts where feasible or continue with at least the same efforts required to reach the goals.