Modelling SARS-CoV-2 unreported cases in Italy: Analysis of serological survey and vaccination scenarios

Neutralising antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 give important information on Covid-19 epidemic evolution in Rabat, Morocco, March 2020-February 2021

Background

The SARS-CoV-2 is an extremely contagious and acute viral disease mainly affecting humans.

Objective

To estimate seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) for illegible armed force individuals living in Rabat, Morocco.

Method

A convenience sample (N = 2662) was conducted from May 2020 to February 2021. We used the standard neutralization assay to quantify the NAbs titers. A serum was positive when the titer was 1:4. High positive NAbs titers were defined when ≥ 1:32.

Results

Demographic and socioeconomic status did not affect seroprevalence data. An overall seroprevalence of 24,9% was found. Sera from blood donors, young recruits and auto-immune population had lower NAbs titers. However, titers were above 1:16 in 9% of the population with high risk of SARS-CoV-2 exposure. Seropositivity increased over time with values reaching peaks after the epidemic waves (2.4% in May 2020; 16.2% in August 2020; 22.7% in December 2020 and 37% in February 2021).

Conclusion

And increase of NAbs was observed over time and correlated with the post-epidemic waves of COVID-19 in Morocco.

Calculating the number of undetected active SARS-CoV-2 infections from results of population-wide antigen tests

Current European research estimates the number of undetected active SARS-CoV-2 infections (dark figure) to be two- to 130-fold the number of detected cases. We revisited the population-wide antigen tests in Slovakia and South Tyrol and calculated the dark figure of active cases in the vulnerable populations and the number of undetected active cases per detected active case at the time of the population-wide tests. Our analysis follows three steps: using the sensitivities and specificities of the used antigen tests, we first calculated the number of test-positive individuals and the proportion of actual positives in those who participated in the antigen tests. We then calculated the dark figure in the total population of Slovakia and South Tyrol, respectively. Finally, we calculated the ratio of the dark figure in the vulnerable population to the number of newly detected infections through PCR tests. Per one positive PCR result, another 0.15 to 0.71 cases must be added in South Tyrol and 0.01 to 1.25 cases in Slovakia. The dark figure was in both countries lower than assumed by earlier studies.