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Hamam H, Ramzan Y, Niazai S, Gepreel KA, Awan AU, Ozair M, Hussain T. Deciphering the enigma of Lassa virus transmission dynamics and strategies for effective epidemic control through awareness campaigns and rodenticides. Sci Rep 2024; 14:18079. [PMID: 39103409 PMCID: PMC11300617 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-68600-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2024] [Accepted: 07/25/2024] [Indexed: 08/07/2024] Open
Abstract
This study aims to formulate a mathematical framework to examine how the Lassa virus spreads in humans of opposite genders. The stability of the model is analyzed at an equilibrium point in the absence of the Lassa fever. The model's effectiveness is evaluated using real-life data, and all the parameters needed to determine the basic reproduction number are estimated. Sensitivity analysis is performed to pinpoint the crucial parameters significantly influencing the spread of the infection. The interaction between threshold parameters and the basic reproduction number is simulated. Control theory is employed to devise and evaluate strategies, such as awareness campaigns, advocating condom usage, and deploying rodenticides to reduce the possibility of virus transmission efficiently.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haneen Hamam
- Department of Mathematics, Jamoum University College, Umm Al-Qura University, 24320, Makkah, Saudi Arabia
| | - Yasir Ramzan
- Department of Mathematics, University of the Punjab, Lahore, 54590, Pakistan
| | - Shafiullah Niazai
- Department of Mathematics, Education Faculty, Laghman University, Mehterlam City, Laghman, 2701, Afghanistan.
| | - Khaled A Gepreel
- Department of Mathematics, College of Science, Taif University, P.O. Box 11099, 21944, Taif, Saudi Arabia
| | - Aziz Ullah Awan
- Department of Mathematics, University of the Punjab, Lahore, 54590, Pakistan.
| | - Muhammad Ozair
- Department of Mathematics, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Attock, Pakistan
| | - Takasar Hussain
- Department of Mathematics, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Attock, Pakistan
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Adel W, Günerhan H, Nisar KS, Agarwal P, El-Mesady A. Designing a novel fractional order mathematical model for COVID-19 incorporating lockdown measures. Sci Rep 2024; 14:2926. [PMID: 38316837 PMCID: PMC11233515 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-50889-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2023] [Accepted: 12/27/2023] [Indexed: 02/07/2024] Open
Abstract
This research focuses on the design of a novel fractional model for simulating the ongoing spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19). The model is composed of multiple categories named susceptible [Formula: see text], infected [Formula: see text], treated [Formula: see text], and recovered [Formula: see text] with the susceptible category further divided into two subcategories [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. In light of the need for restrictive measures such as mandatory masks and social distancing to control the virus, the study of the dynamics and spread of the virus is an important topic. In addition, we investigate the positivity of the solution and its boundedness to ensure positive results. Furthermore, equilibrium points for the system are determined, and a stability analysis is conducted. Additionally, this study employs the analytical technique of the Laplace Adomian decomposition method (LADM) to simulate the different compartments of the model, taking into account various scenarios. The Laplace transform is used to convert the nonlinear resulting equations into an equivalent linear form, and the Adomian polynomials are utilized to treat the nonlinear terms. Solving this set of equations yields the solution for the state variables. To further assess the dynamics of the model, numerical simulations are conducted and compared with the results from LADM. Additionally, a comparison with real data from Italy is demonstrated, which shows a perfect agreement between the obtained data using the numerical and Laplace Adomian techniques. The graphical simulation is employed to investigate the effect of fractional-order terms, and an analysis of parameters is done to observe how quickly stabilization can be achieved with or without confinement rules. It is demonstrated that if no confinement rules are applied, it will take longer for stabilization after more people have been affected; however, if strict measures and a low contact rate are implemented, stabilization can be reached sooner.
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Affiliation(s)
- Waleed Adel
- Department of Mathematics and Engineering Physics, Faculty of Engineering, Mansoura University, Mansoura, 35511, Egypt.
- Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire de l'Université Française d'Egypte (UFEID Lab), Université Française d'Egypte, Cairo, 11837, Egypt.
| | - Hatıra Günerhan
- Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Education, Kafkas University, Kars, Turkey
- MEU Research Unit, Middle East University, Amman, Jordan
| | - Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar
- Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Humanities in Alkharj, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Alkharj, 11942, Saudi Arabia
- School of Technology, Woxsen University, Hyderabad, 502345, Telangana, India
| | - Praveen Agarwal
- Department of Mathematics, Anand International College of Engineering, Jaipur, 303012, India
- Nonlinear Dynamics Research Center (NDRC), Ajman University, Ajman, United Arab Emirates
- International Center for Basic and Applied Sciences, Jaipur, 302029, India
| | - A El-Mesady
- Department of Physics and Engineering Mathematics, Faculty of Electronic Engineering, Menoufia University, Menouf, 32952, Egypt
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