Clinical Application of Respiratory Elastance (CARE Trial) for Mechanically Ventilated Respiratory Failure Patients: A Model-based Study

Virtual patient with temporal evolution for mechanical ventilation trial studies: A stochastic model approach

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Healthcare datasets are plagued by issues of data scarcity and class imbalance. Clinically validated virtual patient (VP) models can provide accurate in-silico representations of real patients and thus a means for synthetic data generation in hospital critical care settings. This research presents a realistic, time-varying mechanically ventilated respiratory failure VP profile synthesised using a stochastic model.

METHODS

A stochastic model was developed using respiratory elastance (Ers) data from two clinical cohorts and averaged over 30-minute time intervals. The stochastic model was used to generate future Ers data based on current Ers values with added normally distributed random noise. Self-validation of the VPs was performed via Monte Carlo simulation and retrospective Ers profile fitting. A stochastic VP cohort of temporal Ers evolution was synthesised and then compared to an independent retrospective patient cohort data in a virtual trial across several measured patient responses, where similarity of profiles validates the realism of stochastic model generated VP profiles.

RESULTS

A total of 120,000 3-hour VPs for pressure control (PC) and volume control (VC) ventilation modes are generated using stochastic simulation. Optimisation of the stochastic simulation process yields an ideal noise percentage of 5-10% and simulation iteration of 200,000 iterations, allowing the simulation of a realistic and diverse set of Ers profiles. Results of self-validation show the retrospective Ers profiles were able to be recreated accurately with a mean squared error of only 0.099 [0.009-0.790]% for the PC cohort and 0.051 [0.030-0.126]% for the VC cohort. A virtual trial demonstrates the ability of the stochastic VP cohort to capture Ers trends within and beyond the retrospective patient cohort providing cohort-level validation.

CONCLUSION

VPs capable of temporal evolution demonstrate feasibility for use in designing, developing, and optimising bedside MV guidance protocols through in-silico simulation and validation. Overall, the temporal VPs developed using stochastic simulation alleviate the need for lengthy, resource intensive, high cost clinical trials, while facilitating statistically robust virtual trials, ultimately leading to improved patient care and outcomes in mechanical ventilation.

Predicting mechanically ventilated patients future respiratory system elastance - A stochastic modelling approach

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Respiratory mechanics of mechanically ventilated patients evolve significantly with time, disease state and mechanical ventilation (MV) treatment. Existing deterministic data prediction methods fail to comprehensively describe the multiple sources of heterogeneity of biological systems. This research presents two respiratory mechanics stochastic models with increased prediction accuracy and range, offering improved clinical utility in MV treatment.

METHODS

Two stochastic models (SM2 and SM3) were developed using retrospective patient respiratory elastance (E_rs) from two clinical cohorts which were averaged over time intervals of 10 and 30 min respectively. A stochastic model from a previous study (SM1) was used to benchmark performance. The stochastic models were clinically validated on an independent retrospective clinical cohort of 14 patients. Differences in predictive ability were evaluated using the difference in percentile lines and cumulative distribution density (CDD) curves.

RESULTS

Clinical validation shows all three models captured more than 98% (median) of future E_rs data within the 5th - 95th percentile range. Comparisons of stochastic model percentile lines reported a maximum mean absolute percentage difference of 5.2%. The absolute differences of CDD curves were less than 0.25 in the ranges of 5 < E_rs (cmH₂O/L) < 85, suggesting similar predictive capabilities within this clinically relevant E_rs range.

CONCLUSION

The new stochastic models significantly improve prediction, clinical utility, and thus feasibility for synchronisation with clinical interventions. Paired with other MV protocols, the stochastic models developed can potentially form part of decision support systems, providing guided, personalised, and safe MV treatment.

Virtual patient framework for the testing of mechanical ventilation airway pressure and flow settings protocol

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Model-based and personalised decision support systems are emerging to guide mechanical ventilation (MV) treatment for respiratory failure patients. However, model-based treatments require resource-intensive clinical trials prior to implementation. This research presents a framework for generating virtual patients for testing model-based decision support, and direct use in MV treatment.

METHODS

The virtual MV patient framework consists of 3 stages: 1) Virtual patient generation, 2) Patient-level validation, and 3) Virtual clinical trials. The virtual patients are generated from retrospective MV patient data using a clinically validated respiratory mechanics model whose respiratory parameters (respiratory elastance and resistance) capture patient-specific pulmonary conditions and responses to MV care over time. Patient-level validation compares the predicted responses from the virtual patient to their retrospective results for clinically implemented MV settings and changes to care. Patient-level validated virtual patients create a platform to conduct virtual trials, where the safety of closed-loop model-based protocols can be evaluated.

RESULTS

This research creates and presents a virtual patient platform of 100 virtual patients generated from retrospective data. Patient-level validation reported median errors of 3.26% for volume-control and 6.80% for pressure-control ventilation mode. A virtual trial on a model-based protocol demonstrates the potential efficacy of using virtual patients for prospective evaluation and testing of the protocol.

CONCLUSION

The virtual patient framework shows the potential to safely and rapidly design, develop, and optimise new model-based MV decision support systems and protocols using clinically validated models and computer simulation, which could ultimately improve patient care and outcomes in MV.

Estimating the incidence of spontaneous breathing effort of mechanically ventilated patients using a non-linear auto regressive (NARX) model

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Mechanical ventilation (MV) provides breathing support for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) patients in the intensive care unit, but is difficult to optimize. Too much, or too little of pressure or volume support can cause further ventilator-induced lung injury, increasing length of MV, cost and mortality. Patient-specific respiratory mechanics can help optimize MV settings. However, model-based estimation of respiratory mechanics is less accurate when patient exhibit un-modeled spontaneous breathing (SB) efforts on top of ventilator support. This study aims to estimate and quantify SB efforts by reconstructing the unaltered passive mechanics airway pressure using NARX model.

METHODS

Non-linear autoregressive (NARX) model is used to reconstruct missing airway pressure due to the presence of spontaneous breathing effort in mv patients. Then, the incidence of SB patients is estimated. The study uses a total of 10,000 breathing cycles collected from 10 ARDS patients from IIUM Hospital in Kuantan, Malaysia. In this study, there are 2 different ratios of training and validating methods. Firstly, the initial ratio used is 60:40 which indicates 600 breath cycles for training and remaining 400 breath cycles used for testing. Then, the ratio is varied using 70:30 ratio for training and testing data.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The mean residual error between original airway pressure and reconstructed airway pressure is denoted as the magnitude of effort. The median and interquartile range of mean residual error for both ratio are 0.0557 [0.0230 - 0.0874] and 0.0534 [0.0219 - 0.0870] respectively for all patients. The results also show that Patient 2 has the highest percentage of SB incidence and Patient 10 with the lowest percentage of SB incidence which proved that NARX model is able to perform for both higher incidence of SB effort or when there is a lack of SB effort.

CONCLUSION

This model is able to produce the SB incidence rate based on 10% threshold. Hence, the proposed NARX model is potentially useful to estimate and identify patient-specific SB effort, which has the potential to further assist clinical decisions and optimize MV settings.

Stochastic integrated model-based protocol for volume-controlled ventilation setting

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Mechanical ventilation (MV) is the primary form of care for respiratory failure patients. MV settings are based on general clinical guidelines, intuition, and experience. This approach is not patient-specific and patients may thus experience suboptimal, potentially harmful MV care. This study presents the Stochastic integrated VENT (SiVENT) protocol which combines model-based approaches of the VENT protocol from previous works, with stochastic modelling to take the variation of patient respiratory elastance over time into consideration.

METHODS

A stochastic model of Ers is integrated into the VENT protocol from previous works to develop the SiVENT protocol, to account for both intra- and inter-patient variability. A cohort of 20 virtual MV patients based on retrospective patient data are used to validate the performance of this method for volume-controlled (VC) ventilation. A performance evaluation was conducted where the SiVENT and VENT protocols were implemented in 1080 instances each to compare the two protocols and evaluate the difference in reduction of possible MV settings achieved by each.

RESULTS

From an initial number of 189,000 possible MV setting combinations, the VENT protocol reduced this number to a median of 10,612, achieving a reduction of 94.4% across the cohort. With the integration of the stochastic model component, the SiVENT protocol reduced this number from 189,000 to a median of 9329, achieving a reduction of 95.1% across the cohort. The SiVENT protocol reduces the number of possible combinations provided to the user by more than 1000 combinations as compared to the VENT protocol.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding a stochastic model component into a model-based approach to selecting MV settings improves the ability of a decision support system to recommend patient-specific MV settings. It specifically considers inter- and intra-patient variability in respiratory elastance and eliminates potentially harmful settings based on clinically recommended pressure thresholds. Clinical input and local protocols can further reduce the number of safe setting combinations. The results for the SiVENT protocol justify further investigation of its prediction accuracy and clinical validation trials.

Protocol conception for safe selection of mechanical ventilation settings for respiratory failure Patients

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Mechanical ventilation is the primary form of care provided to respiratory failure patients. Limited guidelines and conflicting results from major clinical trials means selection of mechanical ventilation settings relies heavily on clinician experience and intuition. Determining optimal mechanical ventilation settings is therefore difficult, where non-optimal mechanical ventilation can be deleterious. To overcome these difficulties, this research proposes a model-based method to manage the wide range of possible mechanical ventilation settings, while also considering patient-specific conditions and responses.

METHODS

This study shows the design and development of the "VENT" protocol, which integrates the single compartment linear lung model with clinical recommendations from landmark studies, to aid clinical decision-making in selecting mechanical ventilation settings. Using retrospective breath data from a cohort of 24 patients, 3,566 and 2,447 clinically implemented VC and PC settings were extracted respectively. Using this data, a VENT protocol application case study and clinical comparison is performed, and the prediction accuracy of the VENT protocol is validated against actual measured outcomes of pressure and volume.

RESULTS

The study shows the VENT protocols' potential use in narrowing an overwhelming number of possible mechanical ventilation setting combinations by up to 99.9%. The comparison with retrospective clinical data showed that only 33% and 45% of clinician settings were approved by the VENT protocol. The unapproved settings were mainly due to exceeding clinical recommended settings. When utilising the single compartment model in the VENT protocol for forecasting peak pressures and tidal volumes, median [IQR] prediction error values of 0.75 [0.31 - 1.83] cmH₂O and 0.55 [0.19 - 1.20] mL/kg were obtained.

CONCLUSIONS

Comparing the proposed protocol with retrospective clinically implemented settings shows the protocol can prevent harmful mechanical ventilation setting combinations for which clinicians would be otherwise unaware. The VENT protocol warrants a more detailed clinical study to validate its potential usefulness in a clinical setting.

Assessing the Asynchrony Event Based on the Ventilation Mode for Mechanically Ventilated Patients in ICU

Respiratory system modelling can assist clinicians in making clinical decisions during mechanical ventilation (MV) management in intensive care. However, there are some cases where the MV patients produce asynchronous breathing (asynchrony events) due to the spontaneous breathing (SB) effort even though they are fully sedated. Currently, most of the developed models are only suitable for fully sedated patients, which means they cannot be implemented for patients who produce asynchrony in their breathing. This leads to an incorrect measurement of the actual underlying mechanics in these patients. As a result, there is a need to develop a model that can detect asynchrony in real-time and at the bedside throughout the ventilated days. This paper demonstrates the asynchronous event detection of MV patients in the ICU of a hospital by applying a developed extended time-varying elastance model. Data from 10 mechanically ventilated respiratory failure patients admitted at the International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) Hospital were collected. The results showed that the model-based technique precisely detected asynchrony events (AEs) throughout the ventilation days. The patients showed an increase in AEs during the ventilation period within the same ventilation mode. SIMV mode produced much higher asynchrony compared to SPONT mode (p < 0.05). The link between AEs and the lung elastance (AUC Edrs) was also investigated. It was found that when the AEs increased, the AUC Edrs decreased and vice versa based on the results obtained in this research. The information of AEs and AUC Edrs provides the true underlying lung mechanics of the MV patients. Hence, this model-based method is capable of detecting the AEs in fully sedated MV patients and providing information that can potentially guide clinicians in selecting the optimal ventilation mode of MV, allowing for precise monitoring of respiratory mechanics in MV patients.

Stochastic Modelling of Respiratory System Elastance for Mechanically Ventilated Respiratory Failure Patients

While lung protective mechanical ventilation (MV) guidelines have been developed to avoid ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI), a one-size-fits-all approach cannot benefit every individual patient. Hence, there is significant need for the ability to provide patient-specific MV settings to ensure safety, and optimise patient care. Model-based approaches enable patient-specific care by identifying time-varying patient-specific parameters, such as respiratory elastance, Ers, to capture inter- and intra-patient variability. However, patient-specific parameters evolve with time, as a function of disease progression and patient condition, making predicting their future values crucial for recommending patient-specific MV settings. This study employs stochastic modelling to predict future Ers values using retrospective patient data to develop and validate a model indicating future intra-patient variability of Ers. Cross validation results show stochastic modelling can predict future elastance ranges with 92.59 and 68.56% of predicted values within the 5-95% and the 25-75% range, respectively. This range can be used to ensure patients receive adequate minute ventilation should elastance rise and minimise the risk of VILI should elastance fall. The results show the potential for model-based protocols using stochastic model prediction of future Ers values to provide safe and patient-specific MV. These results warrant further investigation to validate its clinical utility.

Patient asynchrony modelling during controlled mechanical ventilation therapy

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Mechanical ventilation therapy of respiratory failure patients can be guided by monitoring patient-specific respiratory mechanics. However, the patient's spontaneous breathing effort during controlled ventilation changes airway pressure waveform and thus affects the model-based identification of patient-specific respiratory mechanics parameters. This study develops a model to estimate respiratory mechanics in the presence of patient effort.

METHODS

Gaussian effort model (GEM) is a derivative of the single-compartment model with basis function. GEM model uses a linear combination of basis functions to model the nonlinear pressure waveform of spontaneous breathing patients. The GEM model estimates respiratory mechanics such as Elastance and Resistance along with the magnitudes of basis functions, which accounts for patient inspiratory effort.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The GEM model was tested using both simulated data and a retrospective observational clinical trial patient data. GEM model fitting to the original airway pressure waveform is better than any existing models when reverse triggering asynchrony is present. The fitting error of GEM model was less than 10% for both simulated data and clinical trial patient data.

CONCLUSION

GEM can capture the respiratory mechanics in the presence of patient effect in volume control ventilation mode and also can be used to assess patient-ventilator interaction. This model determines basis functions magnitudes, which can be used to simulate any waveform of patient effort pressure for future studies. The estimation of parameter identification GEM model can further be improved by constraining the parameters within a physiologically plausible range during least-square nonlinear regression.