Mathematical approach for the Listeria monocytogenes inactivation during high hydrostatic pressure processing of a simulated meat medium

The importance of what we cannot observe: Experimental limitations as a source of bias for meta-regression models in predictive microbiology

Meta-regression models have gained in popularity during the last years as a way to create more generic models for Microbial Risk Assessments that also include variability. However, as with most meta-analyses and empirical models, systematic biases in the data can result in inaccurate models. In this article, we define experimental bias as a type of selection bias due to the practical limitations of microbial inactivation experiments. Conditions with extremely high D-values (i.e. slow inactivation) need very long experimental runs to cause significant reductions. On the other hand, when the D-value is extremely low, not enough data points can be gathered before the microbial population is below the detection limit. Consequently, experimental designs favour conditions within a practical experimental range, introducing a selection bias in the D-values. We demonstrate the impact of experimental bias in meta-regression models using numerical simulations. Models fitted to data with experimental bias overestimated the z-value and underestimated variability. We propose a rapid heuristic method to identify experimental bias in datasets, and we propose truncated regression to mitigate its impact in meta-regression models. Both methods were validated using simulated data. Thereafter the procedures were tested by building a meta-regression model for actual data for the inactivation of Bacillus cereus spores. We concluded that the dataset included experimental bias, and that it would cause an overestimation of the microbial resistance at high temperatures (>120 °C) for classical meta-regression models. This effect was mitigated when the model was built using truncated regression. In conclusion, we demonstrate that experimental bias could potentially result in inaccurate models for predictive microbiology. Therefore, checking for experimental bias should be a routine step in meta-regression modelling, and be included in guidelines on data analysis for meta-regression.

The Inclusion of the Food Microstructural Influence in Predictive Microbiology: State-of-the-Art

Predictive microbiology has steadily evolved into one of the most important tools to assess and control the microbiological safety of food products. Predictive models were traditionally developed based on experiments in liquid laboratory media, meaning that food microstructural effects were not represented in these models. Since food microstructure is known to exert a significant effect on microbial growth and inactivation dynamics, the applicability of predictive models is limited if food microstructure is not taken into account. Over the last 10-20 years, researchers, therefore, developed a variety of models that do include certain food microstructural influences. This review provides an overview of the most notable microstructure-including models which were developed over the years, both for microbial growth and inactivation.

Multiresponse Optimization of Pomegranate Peel Extraction by Statistical versus Artificial Intelligence: Predictive Approach for Foodborne Bacterial Pathogen Inactivation

Pomegranate (Punica granatum L.) peel is a potential source of polyphenols known for their activity against foodborne pathogen bacteria. In this study, the effects of pomegranate peel extraction time (10–60 min), agitation speed (120–180 rpm), and solvent/solid ratio (10–30) on phytochemical content and antibacterial activity were determined. Response surface methodology (RSM) and artificial neural network (ANN) methods were used, respectively, for multiresponse optimization and predictive modelling. Compared with the original conditions, the total phenolic content (TPC), the total flavonoid content (TFC), and the total anthocyanin content (TAC) increased by 56.22, 63.47, and 64.6%, respectively. Defined by minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC), the maximum of antibacterial activity was higher than that from preoptimized conditions. With an extraction time of 11 min, an agitation speed 125 rpm, and a solvent/solid ratio of 12, anti-S. aureus activity remarkably decreased from 1.56 to 0.171 mg/mL. Model comparisons through the coefficient of determination (R²) and mean square error (MSE) showed that ANN models were better than the RSM model in predicting the photochemical content and antibacterial activity. To explore the mode of action of the pomegranate peel extract (PPE) at optimal conditions against S. aureus and S. enterica, Chapman and Xylose Lysine Deoxycholate broth media were artificially contaminated at 10⁴ CFU/mL. By using statistical approach, linear (ANOVA), and general (ANCOVA) models, PPE was demonstrated to control the two dominant foodborne pathogens by suppressing bacterial growth.

Modelling inactivation of Staphylococcus spp. on sliced Brazilian dry-cured loin with thermosonication and peracetic acid combined treatment

Ultrasound (US) has a high capacity to increase food safety. Although high and/or moderate temperature in combination with US has been studied, the knowledge about cooling/low temperatures as well as its combined effect with chemical preservation methods is scarce. Therefore, the aim of this study was to describe the inactivation of Staphylococcus spp. (SA) present in the natural microbiota of sliced Brazilian dry-cured loin (Socol, BDL) using US (40 kHz and 5.40 W/g) at 1.6-17.9 kJ/g, temperature (T) between 6.4 and 73.6 °C and peracetic acid (PA) between 5.5 and 274.5 mg/L employing the Central Composite Rotatable Design. The model fully describes how the combination of US, T, and PA affects SA inactivation. In BDL, an increase in US acoustic energy density (kJ/g) allows the reduction of T necessary to inactivate SA because of the occurrence of synergistic effect. However, US applied at low T was inefficient. On the other hand, PA was more efficient at low T, since high T degraded this compound at different rates according to the holding T. Therefore, the data indicates a relation between the technologies used in the combined decontamination of sliced BDL improving dry-cured meat safety.

Tail or artefact? Illustration of the impact that uncertainty of the serial dilution and cell enumeration methods has on microbial inactivation

The estimation of the concentration of microorganisms in a sample is crucial for food microbiology. For instance, it is essential for prevalence studies, challenge tests (growth and/or inactivation studies) or microbial risk assessment. The application of serial dilutions followed by viable counts in Petri dishes is probably the most extended experimental methodology for this purpose. However, this enumeration technique is also a source of uncertainty. In this article, the uncertainty of the serial dilution and viable count methodology related to the sampling error is analyzed, as well as the approximation of the microbial concentration by the number of colonies in a Petri dish. We analyze from a theoretical point of view (statistical analysis) the application of the binomial and Poisson models, demonstrating that the Poisson distribution increases the variance when used to model individual serial dilutions. On the other hand, the binomial model produces unbiased results. Therefore, the Poisson distribution is only applicable when it is a good approximation of the binomial distribution, so the use of the latter is recommended. The relevance of this uncertainty is demonstrated by Monte Carlo simulations of a generic microbial inactivation experiment, where the only source of uncertainty/variability considered is the one generated by serial plating and viable cell enumeration. Due to both the uncertainty of the methodology and the omission of zero-count plates because of the log-transformation, the simulated survival curve can have a tail. Therefore, this phenomenon, which is usually attributed to biological variability, can be to some extent an artefact of the experimental design and/or methodology.