Prevalence of HIV and sexually transmitted diseases among female and male partners of men who have sex with men in Ningbo, China

New sexually transmitted HIV infections from 2016 to 2050 in Guangdong Province, China: a study based on a dynamic compartmental model

BACKGROUND

In Guangdong Province, China, there is lack of information on the HIV epidemic among high-risk groups and the general population, particularly in relation to sexual transmission, which is a predominant route. The new HIV infections each year is also uncertain owing to HIV transmission from men who have sex with men (MSM) to women, as a substantial proportion of MSM also have female sexual partnerships to comply with social demands in China.

METHODS

A deterministic compartmental model was developed to predict new HIV infections in four risk groups, including heterosexual men and women and low- and high-risk MSM, in Guangdong Province from 2016 to 2050, considering HIV transmission from MSM to women. The new HIV infections and its 95% credible interval (CrI) were predicted. An adaptive sequential Monte Carlo method for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC-SMC) was used to estimate the unknown parameter, a mixing index. We calibrated our results based on new HIV diagnoses and proportions of late diagnoses. The Morris and Sobol methods were applied in the sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

New HIV infections increased during and 2 years after the COVID-19 pandemic, then declined until 2050. New infections rose from 8,828 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6,435-10,451] in 2016 to 9,652 (95% CrI: 7,027-11,434) in 2019, peaking at 11,152 (95% CrI: 8,337-13,062) in 2024 before declining to 7,084 (95% CrI: 5,165-8,385) in 2035 and 4,849 (95% CrI: 3,524-5,747) in 2050. Women accounted for approximately 25.0% of new HIV infections, MSM accounted for 40.0% (approximately 55.0% of men), and high-risk MSM accounted for approximately 25.0% of the total. The ABC-SMC mixing index was 0.504 (95% CrI: 0.239-0.894).

CONCLUSIONS

Given that new HIV infections and the proportion of women were relatively high in our calibrated model, to some extent, the HIV epidemic in Guangdong Province remains serious, and services for HIV prevention and control are urgently needed to return to the levels before the COVID-19 epidemic, especially in promoting condom-based safe sex and increasing awareness of HIV prevention to general population.

The prevalence of HIV among MSM in China: a large-scale systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of HIV among men who have sex with men (MSM) has become a significant public health challenge. The aim was to comprehensively estimate the national prevalence of HIV among MSM and its time trends through a large-scale systematic analysis.

METHODS

Systematic search of Cochrane Library, PubMed, EMBASE, CNKI, VIP, and Wanfang Data databases without language restriction for studies on the prevalence of HIV among MSM published before Dec.31, 2018. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they were published in the peer-reviewed literature and used validated assessment methods to assess the prevalence of HIV among MSM. Estimates were pooled using random-effects analysis.

RESULTS

Data were extracted from 355 cross-sectional studies (571,328 individuals) covered 59 cities from 30 provinces and municipalities of China. The overall national prevalence of HIV among MSM from 2001 to 2018 was estimated to be 5.7% (95% CI: 5.4-6.1%), with high between-study heterogeneity (I2 = 98.0%, P <  0.001). Our study showed an increased tendency in the HIV prevalence as time progressed by meta-regression analysis (I2 = 95.9%, P <  0.0001). HIV prevalence was the highest in those aged 50 years and older with HIV prevalence of 19.3% (95%CI: 13.1-27.4%, N = 13). HIV was more prevalent in the illiterate population (16.8%), than in those who had received an education. Although the internet was a major venue for Chinese MSM seeking male sex partners (35.6, 95%CI: 32.3-39.9%, N = 101), seeking MSM in bathhouses/saunas had the highest associated prevalence of HIV (13.4, 95%CI: 10.3-17.1%, N = 22). The HIV prevalence among MSM varied by location: compared with other regions in China, HIV was highly prevalent among MSM in the southwest (10.7, 95%CI: 9.3-12.2%, N = 91). Compared to participants who sometimes or always used condoms, participants who had never used a condom in the past 6 months had a higher risk of HIV infection, with odds ratios of 0.1 (95%CI: 0.08-0.14).

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis provided reliable estimates of China's HIV burden among MSM, which appears to present an increasing national public health challenge. Effective government responses are needed to address this challenge and include the implementation of HIV prevention.