Development of a clinical prediction rule for the diagnosis of pleural tuberculosis in Peru

Diagnostic scoring systems for tuberculous pleural effusion in patients with lymphocyte-predominant exudative pleural profile: A development study

Background

Diagnosing tuberculous pleural effusion (TPE) in patients presenting with Lymphocyte-Predominant Exudative pleural effusion (LPE) is challenging, due to the poor clinical utility of TB culture. Adenosine deaminase (ADA) has been recommended for diagnosis, but its high cost and limited availability hinder its clinical utility. We aim to develop diagnostic prediction tools for Thai patients with LPE in scenarios where pleural fluid ADA is available but yields negative results and in situations where pleural fluid ADA is not available.

Methods

Two diagnostic prediction tools were developed using retrospective data from patients with LPE at Surin Hospital. Model 1 is for ADA-negative results, and Model 2 is for situations where pleural fluid ADA testing is unavailable. The models were derived using multivariable logistic regression and presented as two clinical scoring systems: round-up and count scoring. The score cut-point that achieves a positive predictive value (PPV) comparable to the post-test probability of a pleural fluid ADA at a cut-point of 40 U/L was used as a threshold for initiating anti-TB treatment.

Results

A total of 359 patients were eligible for analysis, with 166 diagnosed with TPE and 193 diagnosed with non-TPE. Age <40 years, fever, pleural fluid protein ≥5 g/dL, male gender, pleural fluid color, and pleural fluid ADA ≥20 U/L were identified as final predictors. Both models demonstrated excellent discriminative ability (AuROC: 0.85 to 0.89). The round-up scoring demonstrated PPV above 90% at cut-off points of 4 and 4.5, while the count scoring achieved cut-off points of 3 and 4 for Model 1 (Lex-2P2A) and Model 2 (Lex-2P-MAC), respectively.

Conclusion

These diagnostic tools offer valuable assistance in differentiating between TPE and non-TPE in LPE patients with negative pleural fluid ADA (Lex-2P2A) and in settings where pleural fluid ADA testing is not available (Lex-2P-MAC). Implementing these diagnostic scores may have the potential to improve TPE diagnosis and facilitate prompt initiation of treatment.

Clinical characteristics that portend a positive Xpert Ultra test result in patients with pleural tuberculosis

BACKGROUND

The performance of Xpert-MTB/RIF, including the newer Xpert Ultra test, for the diagnosis of pleural TB is poor (~28 - 38%). There are no data on patient characteristics that portend a positive Xpert-Ultra test in pleural fluid. These characteristics could be useful for selecting patients for Xpert-Ultra testing, thus maximising benefits of a positive test, while minimising cost.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the clinical, radiological, microbiological and biochemical characteristics associated with Xpert-Ultra positivity in patients with suspected pleural tuberculosis.

METHODS

We performed a subgroup analysis of a prospective observational cohort (N=165 patients with suspected pleural TB) evaluating same-day diagnostic tools for pleural tuberculosis. Forty-nine patients with confirmed pleural tuberculosis (culture and/or histology) were included in the final analysis.

RESULTS

Of the 49 participants, 17 (35%) were female and 9 (18.4%) were HIV-infected. In the multivariate analysis including demographic, radiological and pleural fluid test characteristics, there were no independent predictors of Xpert-Ultra positivity. However, when pleural fluid test results were excluded, and when only rapidly ascertainable pre-test factors (demographic and radiologic variables) were considered, the multivariable analysis showed that only a chest X-ray (CXR) suggestive of active TB (cavities, consolidation and hilar lymphadenopathy) was associated with Xpert-Ultra positivity (p=0.021). Notably, only 22% (n=11/49) of the participants had a CXR suggestive of active TB and of these, 73% (n=8/11) had a positive Xpert-Ultra result.

CONCLUSION

CXR features suggestive of active TB are significantly associated with a positive Xpert-Ultra test result on pleural fluid. These data inform clinical practice in resource-poor settings.