Modeling the early temporal dynamics of viral load in respiratory tract specimens of COVID-19 patients in Incheon, the Republic of Korea

Evolutionary safety of lethal mutagenesis driven by antiviral treatment

Nucleoside analogs are a major class of antiviral drugs. Some act by increasing the viral mutation rate causing lethal mutagenesis of the virus. Their mutagenic capacity, however, may lead to an evolutionary safety concern. We define evolutionary safety as a probabilistic assurance that the treatment will not generate an increased number of mutants. We develop a mathematical framework to estimate the total mutant load produced with and without mutagenic treatment. We predict rates of appearance of such virus mutants as a function of the timing of treatment and the immune competence of patients, employing realistic assumptions about the vulnerability of the viral genome and its potential to generate viable mutants. We focus on the case study of Molnupiravir, which is an FDA-approved treatment against Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19). We estimate that Molnupiravir is narrowly evolutionarily safe, subject to the current estimate of parameters. Evolutionary safety can be improved by restricting treatment with this drug to individuals with a low immunological clearance rate and, in future, by designing treatments that lead to a greater increase in mutation rate. We report a simple mathematical rule to determine the fold increase in mutation rate required to obtain evolutionary safety that is also applicable to other pathogen-treatment combinations.

Viral shedding patterns of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections by periods of variant predominance and vaccination status in Gyeonggi Province, Korea

OBJECTIVES

We compared the viral cycle threshold (Ct) values of infected patients to better understand viral kinetics by vaccination status during different periods of variant predominance in Gyeonggi Province, Korea.

METHODS

We obtained case-specific data from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) surveillance system, Gyeonggi in-depth epidemiological report system, and Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service from January 2020 to January 2022. We defined periods of variant predominance and explored Ct values by analyzing viral sequencing test results. Using a generalized additive model, we performed a nonlinear regression analysis to determine viral kinetics over time.

RESULTS

Cases in the Delta variant's period of predominance had higher viral shedding patterns than cases in other periods. The temporal change of viral shedding did not vary by vaccination status in the Omicron-predominant period, but viral shedding decreased in patients who had completed their third vaccination in the Delta-predominant period. During the Delta-predominant and Omicron-predominant periods, the time from symptom onset to peak viral shedding based on the E gene was approximately 2.4 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.2 to 2.5) and 2.1 days (95% CI, 2.0 to 2.1), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In one-time tests conducted to diagnose COVID-19 in a large population, although no adjustment for individual characteristics was conducted, it was confirmed that viral shedding differed by the predominant strain and vaccination history. These results show the value of utilizing hundreds of thousands of test data produced at COVID-19 screening test centers.

Evaluating the role of SARS-CoV-2 target genes based on two nucleic acid assay kits

Background

Effective isolation and early treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) relies on rapid, accurate, and straightforward diagnostic tools. In response to the rapidly increasing number of cases, reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) assays for multiple target genes have become widely available in the market.

Methods

In total, 236 COVID-19 patients with positive results in both RT-qPCR and rapid antigen diagnosis (Ag-RDT) were enrolled in the study. The cycle threshold (Ct) was compared with different onset times and target genes. Comparison between groups was evaluated with the Kruskal-Wallis test and Dunn test. The correlation between target genes was analyzed by Spearman.

Results

In samples of Ct ≤ 21, Ct was different for the nucleocapsid (N), open reading frame 1ab (ORF1ab), and envelope (E) genes (P < 0.05). Mild COVID-19 patients within 7 days of onset accounted for 67.80% of all enrolled patients. At the above stage, all target genes reached the trough of Ct, and N genes showed lower values than the other target genes. The Ct of the ORF1ab and N gene in asymptomatic patients differed from those of mild patients within 7 days and more than 14 days of onset. The kits used in the study showed strong consistency among target genes, with all correlation coefficients >0.870.

Conclusion

RT-qPCR confirmed that the N gene performed well in Ct ≤ 21 and samples within 7 days of onset. Ag-RDT was discriminatory for patients within 7 days of onset. This study facilitated early identification and control of COVID-19 prevalence among patients.

Multiplex, Real-Time, Point-of-care RT-LAMP for SARS-CoV-2 Detection Using the HFman Probe

Viral evolution impacts diagnostic test performance through the emergence of variants with sequences affecting the efficiency of primer binding. Such variants that evade detection by nucleic acid-based tests are subject to selective pressure, enabling them to spread more efficiently. Here, we report a variant-tolerant diagnostic test for SARS-CoV-2 using a loop-mediated isothermal nucleic acid-based amplification (LAMP) assay containing high-fidelity DNA polymerase and a high-fidelity DNA polymerase-medicated probe (HFman probe). In addition to demonstrating a high tolerance to variable SARS-CoV-2 viral sequences, the mechanism also overcomes frequently observed limitations of LAMP assays arising from non-specific amplification within multiplexed reactions performed in a single "pot". Results showed excellent clinical performance (sensitivity 94.5%, specificity 100%, n = 190) when compared directly to a commercial gold standard reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction assay for the extracted RNA from nasopharyngeal samples and the capability of detecting a wide range of sequences containing at least alpha and delta variants. To further validate the test with no sample processing, directly from nasopharyngeal swabs, we also detected SARS-CoV-2 in positive clinical samples (n = 49), opening up the possibility for the assay's use in decentralized testing.