Smooth Bayesian network model for the prediction of future high-cost patients with COPD

Cost prediction for ischemic heart disease hospitalization: Interpretable feature extraction using network analysis

OBJECTIVES

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is a significant contributor to global mortality and disability, imposing a substantial social and economic burden on individuals and healthcare systems. To enhance the efficient allocation of medical resources and ultimately benefit a larger population, accurate prediction of healthcare costs is crucial.

METHODS

We developed an interpretable IHD hospitalization cost prediction model that integrates network analysis with machine learning. Specifically, our network-enhanced model extracts explainable features by leveraging a diagnosis-procedure concurrence network and advanced graph kernel techniques, facilitating the capture of intricate relationships between medical codes.

RESULTS

The proposed model achieved an R2 of 0.804 ± 0.008 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 17,076 ± 420 CNY on the temporal validation dataset, demonstrating comparable performance to the model employing less interpretable code embedding features (R2: 0.800 ± 0.008; RMSE: 17,279 ± 437 CNY) and the hybrid graph isomorphism network (R2: 0.802 ± 0.007; RMSE: 17,249 ± 387 CNY). The interpretation of the network-enhanced model assisted in pinpointing specific diagnoses and procedures associated with higher hospitalization costs, including acute kidney injury, permanent atrial fibrillation, intra-aortic balloon bump, and temporary pacemaker placement, among others.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis results demonstrate that the proposed model strikes a balance between predictive accuracy and interpretability. It aids in identifying specific diagnoses and procedures associated with higher hospitalization costs, underscoring its potential to support intelligent management of IHD.

Automated detection of airflow obstructive diseases: A systematic review of the last decade (2013-2022)

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Obstructive airway diseases, including asthma and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), are two of the most common chronic respiratory health problems. Both of these conditions require health professional expertise in making a diagnosis. Hence, this process is time intensive for healthcare providers and the diagnostic quality is subject to intra- and inter- operator variability. In this study we investigate the role of automated detection of obstructive airway diseases to reduce cost and improve diagnostic quality.

METHODS

We investigated the existing body of evidence and applied Preferred Reporting Items for Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines to search records in IEEE, Google scholar, and PubMed databases. We identified 65 papers that were published from 2013 to 2022 and these papers cover 67 different studies. The review process was structured according to the medical data that was used for disease detection. We identified six main categories, namely air flow, genetic, imaging, signals, and miscellaneous. For each of these categories, we report both disease detection methods and their performance.

RESULTS

We found that medical imaging was used in 14 of the reviewed studies as data for automated obstructive airway disease detection. Genetics and physiological signals were used in 13 studies. Medical records and air flow were used in 9 and 7 studies, respectively. Most papers were published in 2020 and we found three times more work on Machine Learning (ML) when compared to Deep Learning (DL). Statistical analysis shows that DL techniques achieve higher Accuracy (ACC) when compared to ML. Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) is the most common DL classifier and Support Vector Machine (SVM) is the most widely used ML classifier. During our review, we discovered only two publicly available asthma and COPD datasets. Most studies used private clinical datasets, so data size and data composition are inconsistent.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review results indicate that Artificial Intelligence (AI) can improve both decision quality and efficiency of health professionals during COPD and asthma diagnosis. However, we found several limitations in this review, such as a lack of dataset consistency, a limited dataset and remote monitoring was not sufficiently explored. We appeal to society to accept and trust computer aided airflow obstructive diseases diagnosis and we encourage health professionals to work closely with AI scientists to promote automated detection in clinical practice and hospital settings.

A framework for the estimation of treatment costs of cardiovascular conditions in the presence of disease transition

The current research aims to aid policymakers and healthcare service providers in estimating expected long-term costs of medical treatment, particularly for chronic conditions characterized by disease transition. The study comprised two phases (qualitative and quantitative), in which we developed linear optimization-based mathematical frameworks to ascertain the expected long-term treatment cost per patient considering the integration of various related dimensions such as the progression of the medical condition, the accuracy of medical treatment, treatment decisions at respective severity levels of the medical condition, and randomized/deterministic policies. At the qualitative research stage, we conducted the data collection and validation of various cogent hypotheses acting as inputs to the prescriptive modeling stage. We relied on data collected from 115 different cardio-vascular clinicians to understand the nuances of disease transition and related medical dimensions. The framework developed was implemented in the context of a multi-specialty hospital chain headquartered in the capital city of a state in Eastern India, the results of which have led to some interesting insights. For instance, at the prescriptive modeling stage, though one of our contributions related to the development of a novel medical decision-making framework, we illustrated that the randomized versus deterministic policy seemed more cost-competitive. We also identified that the expected treatment cost was most sensitive to variations in steady-state probability at the "major" as opposed to the "severe" stage of a medical condition, even though the steady-state probability of the "severe" state was less than that of the "major" state.

Hybrid Bayesian Network-Based Modeling: COVID-19-Pneumonia Case

The primary goal of this paper is to develop an approach for predicting important clinical indicators, which can be used to improve treatment. Using mathematical predictive modeling algorithms, we examined the course of COVID-19-based pneumonia (CP) with inpatient treatment. Algorithms used include dynamic and ordinary Bayesian networks (OBN and DBN), popular ML algorithms, the state-of-the-art auto ML approach and our new hybrid method based on DBN and auto ML approaches. Predictive targets include treatment outcomes, length of stay, dynamics of disease severity indicators, and facts of prescribed drugs for different time intervals of observation. Models are validated using expert knowledge, current clinical recommendations, preceding research and classic predictive metrics. The characteristics of the best models are as follows: MAE of 3.6 days of predicting LOS (DBN plus FEDOT auto ML framework), 0.87 accuracy of predicting treatment outcome (OBN); 0.98 F1 score for predicting facts of prescribed drug (DBN). Moreover, the advantage of the proposed approach is Bayesian network-based interpretability, which is very important in the medical field. After the validation of other CP datasets for other hospitals, the proposed models can be used as part of the decision support systems for improving COVID-19-based pneumonia treatment. Another important finding is the significant differences between COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 pneumonia.

From Personal Observations to Recommendation of Tailored Interventions based on Causal Reasoning: a case study of Falls Prevention in Elderly Patients

OBJECTIVE

While the challenge of estimating the efficacy of therapies using observational data has received a lot of attention, little work has been done on estimating the treatment effect from interventions. In this paper, we tackle this problem by proposing an early guidance system based on a causal Bayesian network (CBN) for recommending personalized interventions. We are interested in the elderly fall prevention context. The objective is to develop a practical tool to help doctors estimate the effects of each intervention (or compound interventions) on a given patient and then choose the one that best fits each patient's health situation to reduce the risk of falling.

METHODS

On a real-world elderly information base, we undertake an empirical investigation for the proposed approach, which is based on a 44-node CBN. Then, we describe what is possible to achieve using state-of-the-art machine learning methods, namely Support Virtual Machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), and Bayesian Network (BN), and how well these methods can be used in recommending personalized interventions compared to the proposed approach.

RESULTS

1174 elderly patients from Lille University Hospital, between January 2005 and December 2018 are included. The results reveal that none of the classifiers is significantly superior to the others, even if BN delivers somewhat better results (41.6%) and DT most often slightly lower performance (31.2%). Results also show that none of these three classifiers performs comparable to the proposed system (89.7%). The interventions recommended by the system are in agreement with the expert's judgment to a satisfactory level. The reaction of the physicians to the proposed system in its first trial version was very favorable.

CONCLUSION

The study showed the efficacy and utility of the causality-based strategy in recommending tailored interventions to prevent elderly falls compared to automated learning methods that had failed to infer a solid interventional paradigm for precision medicine.

Review of Artificial Intelligence techniques in Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease

BACKGROUND

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has proven to be an invaluable asset in the healthcare domain, where massive amounts of data are produced. Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a heterogeneous chronic condition with multiscale manifestations and complex interactions that represents an ideal target for AI.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this review article is to appraise the adoption of AI in COPD research, and more specifically its applications to date along with reported results, potential challenges and future prospects.

METHODS

We performed a review of the literature from PubMed and DBLP and assembled studies published up to 2020, yielding 156 articles relevant to the scope of this review.

RESULTS

The resulting articles were assessed and organized into four basic contextual categories, namely: i) COPD diagnosis, ii) COPD prognosis, iii) Patient classification, iv) COPD management, and subsequently presented in an orderly manner based on a set of qualitative and quantitative criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed considerable acceleration of research activity utilizing AI techniques in COPD research, especially in the last couple of years, nevertheless, the massive production of large and complex data in COPD calls for broader adoption of AI and more advanced techniques.

Analyzing the use of artificial intelligence for the management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)

OBJECTIVE

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a disease that causes airflow limitation to the lungs and has a high morbidity around the world. The objective of this study was to evaluate how artificial intelligence (AI) is being applied for the management of the disease, analyzing the objectives that are raised, the algorithms that are used and what results they offer.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping review following the Arksey and O'Malley (2005) and Levac et al. (2010) guidelines. Two reviewers independently searched, analyzed and extracted data from papers of five databases: Web of Science, PubMed, Scopus, Cinahl and Cochrane. To be included, the studies had to apply some AI techniques for the management of at least one stage of the COPD clinical process. In the event of any discrepancy between both reviewers, the criterion of a third reviewer prevailed.

RESULTS

380 papers were identified through database searches. After applying the exclusion criteria, 67 papers were included in the study. The studies were of a different nature and pursued a wide range of objectives, highlighting mainly those focused on the identification, classification and prevention of the disease. Neural nets, support vector machines and decision trees were the AI algorithms most commonly used. The mean and median values of all the performance metrics evaluated were between 80% and 90%.

CONCLUSIONS

The results obtained show a growing interest in the development of medical applications that manage the different phases of the COPD clinical process, especially predictive models. According to the performance shown, these models could be a useful complementary tool in the decision-making by health specialists, although more high-quality ML studies are needed to endorse the findings of this study.

Design Comorbidity Portfolios to Improve Treatment Cost Prediction of Asthma Using Machine Learning

Comorbidity is an important factor to consider when trying to predict the cost of treating asthma patients. When an asthmatic patient suffered from comorbidity, the cost of treating such a patient becomes dependent on the nature of the comorbidity. Therefore, lack of recognition of comorbidity on asthmatic patient poses a challenge in predicting the cost of treatment. In this study, we proposed a comorbidity portfolio design that improves the prediction cost of treating asthmatic patients by regrouping frequently occurred comorbidities in different cost groups. In the experiment, predictive models, including logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine, classification regression tree, and backpropagation neural network were trained with real-world data of asthmatic patients from 2012 to 2014 in a large city of China. The 10-fold cross validation and random search algorithm were employed to optimize the hyper-parameters. We recorded significant improvements using our model, which are attributed to comorbidity portfolios in area under curve (AUC) and sensitivity increase of 46.89% (standard deviation: 4.45%) and 101.07% (standard deviation: 44.94%), respectively. In risk analysis of comorbidity on cost, respiratory diseases with a cumulative proportion in the adjusted odds ratio of 36.38% (95%CI: 27.61%, 47.86%) and circulatory diseases with a cumulative proportion in the adjusted odds ratio of 23.83% (95%CI: 15.95%, 35.22%) are the dominant risks of asthmatic patients that affects the treatment cost. It is found that the comorbidity portfolio is robust, and provides a better prediction of the high-cost of treating asthmatic patients. The preliminary characterization of the joint risk of multiple comorbidities posed on cost are also reported. This study will be of great help in improving cost prediction and comorbidity management.

Systematic review of approaches to use of neighborhood-level risk factors with clinical data to predict clinical risk and recommend interventions

BACKGROUND

Despite a large body of literature investigating how the environment influences health outcomes, most published work to date includes only a limited subset of the rich clinical and environmental data that is available and does not address how these data might best be used to predict clinical risk or expected impact of clinical interventions.

OBJECTIVE

Identify existing approaches to inclusion of a broad set of neighborhood-level risk factors with clinical data to predict clinical risk and recommend interventions.

METHODS

A systematic review of scientific literature published and indexed in PubMed, Web of Science, Association of Computing Machinery (ACM) and SCOPUS from 2010 through October 2020 was performed. To be included, articles had to include search terms related to Electronic Health Record (EHR) data Neighborhood-Level Risk Factors (NLRFs), and Machine Learning (ML) Methods. Citations of relevant articles were also reviewed for additional articles for inclusion. Articles were reviewed and coded by two independent reviewers to capture key information including data sources, linkage of EHR to NRLFs, methods, and results. Articles were assessed for quality using a modified Quality Assessment Tool for Systematic Reviews of Observational Studies (QATSO).

RESULTS

A total of 334 articles were identified for abstract review. 36 articles were identified for full review with 19 articles included in the final analysis. All but two of the articles included socio-demographic data derived from the U.S. Census and we found great variability in sources of NLRFs beyond the Census. The majority or the articles (14 of 19) included broader clinical (e.g. medications, labs and co-morbidities) and demographic information about the individual from the EHR in addition to the clinical outcome variable. Half of the articles (10) had a stated goal to predict the outcome(s) of interest. While results of the studies reinforced the correlative association of NLRFs to clinical outcomes, only one article found that adding NLRFs into a model with other data added predictive power with the remainder concluding either that NLRFs were of mixed value depending on the model and outcome or that NLRFs added no predictive power over other data in the model. Only one article scored high on the quality assessment with 13 scoring moderate and 4 scoring low.

CONCLUSIONS

In spite of growing interest in combining NLRFs with EHR data for clinical prediction, we found limited evidence that NLRFs improve predictive power in clinical risk models. We found these data and methods are being used in four ways. First, early approaches to include broad NLRFs to predict clinical risk primarily focused on dimension reduction for feature selection or as a data preparation step to input into regression analysis. Second, more recent work incorporates NLRFs into more advanced predictive models, such as Neural Networks, Random Forest, and Penalized Lasso to predict clinical outcomes or predict value of interventions. Third, studies that test how inclusion of NLRFs predict clinical risk have shown mixed results regarding the value of these data over EHR or claims data alone and this review surfaced evidence of potential quality challenges and biases inherent to this approach. Finally, NLRFs were used with unsupervised learning to identify underlying patterns in patient populations to recommend targeted interventions. Further access to computable, high quality data is needed along with careful study design, including sub-group analysis, to better determine how these data and methods can be used to support decision making in a clinical setting.

Comparison of machine learning algorithms for the identification of acute exacerbations in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

OBJECTIVES

Identifying acute exacerbations in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPDs) is of utmost importance for reducing the associated mortality and financial burden. In this research, the authors aimed to develop identification models for AECOPDs and to compare the relative performance of different modeling paradigms to find the best model for this task.

METHODS

Data were extracted from electronic medical records (EMRs) of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease who admitted to the China-Japan Friendship Hospital between February 2011 and March 2017. Five machine learning algorithms (random forest, support vector machine, logistic regression, K-nearest neighbor and naïve Bayes) were used to develop the AECOPDs identification models. Feature selection was performed to find an optimal feature subset. 10-folds cross-validation was used to find the best hyperparameters for each model. The following metrics:  area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were used to evaluate the performance of these models.

RESULTS

A total of 303 EMRs (AECOPDs patients:135; None AECOPDs patients: 168) were included in the study. The SVM model obtained the best performance (sensitivity: 0.80, specificity: 0.83, positive predictive value:0.81, negative predictive value:0.85 and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.90) after performing feature selection.

CONCLUSIONS

Our research confirms that the proposed model based on the support vector machine is a powerful tool to identify AECOPDs patients, and it is promising to provide decision support for clinicians when they are struggling to give a confirmed clinical diagnosis.

Forecasting Single Disease Cost of Cataract Based on Multivariable Regression Analysis and Backpropagation Neural Network

In medical services, charge according to the disease is an important way to promote the reform of pricing mechanism, control the unreasonable growth of medical expenses, as well as reduce the burden on patients. Single disease cost forecasting that both identify potential influencing or driving factors and enable better proactive estimation of costs can guide the management and control of medical costs. This study aimed to identify the factors that affect the medical costs of single disease cataract and compare 2 regression models for anticipating acceptable medical cost forecasts. For this purpose, 483 patients with cataract surgery completed in West China Hospital from May 1, 2015, to October 1, 2015, were selected from hospital information system. For cost forecasting, multivariable regression analysis (MRA) and backpropagation neural network (BPNN) were used. Analysis of data was performed with SPSS21.0 and MATLAB2014a software. Total medical costs of patients with cataract (n = 483) ranged from 2015.00 to 13 359.00 CNY, and the mean ± standard deviation is 6292.29 ± 2639.43 CNY. Factors influencing costs of cataract in the MRA include, in importance order, intraocular lens (IOL) implantation (|r|: 0.805, P < .01), doctor level (|r|: 0.644, P < .01), payment source (|r|: 0.554, P < .01), admission status (|r|: 0.326, P < .01), additional diagnosis (|r|: 0.260, P < .01), type of surgery (|r|: 0.127, P < .05), and type of anesthesia (|r|: 0.126, P < .05). In terms of forecasting performance, BPNN (average error: 2.81%) outperforms, yet is less interpretable than MRA (average error: 5.79%). Both MRA and BPNN are technically and economically feasible in generating medical costs of cataract. And some insights on using results of the forecasting model in controlling and reducing disease costs are obtained.