Application of artificial intelligence for overall survival risk stratification in oropharyngeal carcinoma: A validation of ProgTOOL

Machine Learning for Treatment Management Prediction in Laryngeal Fractures

OBJECTIVES

Laryngeal fractures are rare but potentially life-threatening traumas. Complications, such as airway obstruction and disrupted laryngeal anatomy, associate with significant morbidity. Early identification of at-risk patients and optimal management remain crucial for improved outcomes. Recently, machine learning (ML) has attained great attention as a unique and novel technique for evaluating complex nonlinear relationships between multiple observations to create a predictive model with greater accuracy. This study aimed to demonstrate the potential of ML in predicting airway and surgical management of laryngeal fracture patients and identify key contributing parameters for the predictive performance of the ML models.

METHODS

The ML models were developed using a patient series managed at the Helsinki University Hospital during 2005-2019. The developed models were further evaluated independently using a different cohort collected from the same institution between 1995 and 2004.

RESULTS

The ML showed a weighted area under curve (AUC) of 0.93 and accuracy of 0.86 following training for airway management. Likewise, for treatment approach, weighted AUC was 0.85 and accuracy 0.78. Injury type, Schaefer-Fuhrman grade (SF gr), age at incident, cause of injury, and fracture of the cricoid, in decreasing order of significance, were the most prominent features for the model's predictive performance for airway management. Similarly, our model identified SF gr, fracture of the cricoid, injury type, age at incident, and cause of injury as the most significant predictors for surgical treatment approach.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed prediction of management approach by an ML technique can provide accurate predictions and thus aid clinicians in administering early and personalized interventions. The model may serve as a supporting tool in recognizing at-risk patients and in timely decision-making. Further independent external validation is warranted for model generalizability.

Artificial Intelligence-Driven Radiomics in Head and Neck Cancer: Current Status and Future Prospects

BACKGROUND

Radiomics is a rapidly growing field used to leverage medical radiological images by extracting quantitative features. These are supposed to characterize a patient's phenotype, and when combined with artificial intelligence techniques, to improve the accuracy of diagnostic models and clinical outcome prediction.

OBJECTIVES

This review aims at examining the application areas of artificial intelligence-based radiomics (AI-based radiomics) for the management of head and neck cancer (HNC). It further explores the workflow of AI-based radiomics for personalized and precision oncology in HNC. Finally, it examines the current challenges of AI-based radiomics in daily clinical oncology and offers possible solutions to these challenges.

METHODS

Comprehensive electronic databases (PubMed, Medline via Ovid, Scopus, Web of Science, CINAHL, and Cochrane Library) were searched following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. The quality of included studies and their risk of biases were evaluated using the Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD)and Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST).

RESULTS

Out of the 659 search hits retrieved, 45 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Our review revealed that the application of AI-based radiomics model as an ancillary tool for improved decision-making in HNC management includes radiomics-based cancer diagnosis and radiomics-based cancer prognosis. The radiomics-based cancer diagnosis includes tumor staging, tumor grading, and classification of malignant and benign tumors. Similarly, radiomics-based cancer prognosis includes prediction for treatment response, recurrence, metastasis, and survival. In addition, the challenges in the implementation of these models for clinical evaluations include data imbalance, feature engineering (extraction and selection), model generalizability, multi-modal fusion, and model interpretability.

CONCLUSION

Considering the highly subjective and interobserver variability that is peculiar to the interpretation of medical images by expert clinicians, AI-based radiomics seeks to offer potentially useful quantitative information, which is not visible to the human eye or unintentionally often remain ignored during clinical imaging practice. By enabling the extraction of this type of information, AI-based radiomics has the potential to revolutionize HNC oncology, providing a platform for more personalized, higher quality, and cost-effective care for HNC patients.

Prognosing post-treatment outcomes of head and neck cancer using structured data and machine learning: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

This systematic review aimed to evaluate the performance of machine learning (ML) models in predicting post-treatment survival and disease progression outcomes, including recurrence and metastasis, in head and neck cancer (HNC) using clinicopathological structured data.

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted across the Medline, Scopus, Embase, Web of Science, and Google Scholar databases. The methodological characteristics and performance metrics of studies that developed and validated ML models were assessed. The risk of bias was evaluated using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST).

RESULTS

Out of 5,560 unique records, 34 articles were included. For survival outcome, the ML model outperformed the Cox proportional hazards model in time-to-event analyses for HNC, with a concordance index of 0.70-0.79 vs. 0.66-0.76, and for all sub-sites including oral cavity (0.73-0.89 vs. 0.69-0.77) and larynx (0.71-0.85 vs. 0.57-0.74). In binary classification analysis, the area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) of ML models ranged from 0.75-0.97, with an F1-score of 0.65-0.89 for HNC; AUROC of 0.61-0.91 and F1-score of 0.58-0.86 for the oral cavity; and AUROC of 0.76-0.97 and F1-score of 0.63-0.92 for the larynx. Disease-specific survival outcomes showed higher performance than overall survival outcomes, but the performance of ML models did not differ between three- and five-year follow-up durations. For disease progression outcomes, no time-to-event metrics were reported for ML models. For binary classification of the oral cavity, the only evaluated subsite, the AUROC ranged from 0.67 to 0.97, with F1-scores between 0.53 and 0.89.

CONCLUSIONS

ML models have demonstrated considerable potential in predicting post-treatment survival and disease progression, consistently outperforming traditional linear models and their derived nomograms. Future research should incorporate more comprehensive treatment features, emphasize disease progression outcomes, and establish model generalizability through external validations and the use of multicenter datasets.

Interpretable machine learning model for prediction of overall survival in laryngeal cancer

Background: The mortality rates of laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma cancer (LSCC) have not significantly decreased in the last decades.Objectives: We primarily aimed to compare the predictive performance of DeepTables with the state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) algorithms (Voting ensemble, Stack ensemble, and XGBoost) to stratify patients with LSCC into chance of overall survival (OS). In addition, we complemented the developed model by providing interpretability using both global and local model-agnostic techniques.Methods: A total of 2792 patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database diagnosed with LSCC were reviewed. The global model-agnostic interpretability was examined using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) technique. Likewise, individual interpretation of the prediction was made using Local Interpretable Model Agnostic Explanations (LIME).Results: The state-of-the-art ML ensemble algorithms outperformed DeepTables. Specifically, the examined ensemble algorithms showed comparable weighted area under receiving curve of 76.9, 76.8, and 76.1 with an accuracy of 71.2%, 70.2%, and 71.8%, respectively. The global methods of interpretability (SHAP) demonstrated that the age of the patient at diagnosis, N-stage, T-stage, tumor grade, and marital status are among the prominent parameters.Conclusions: A ML model for OS prediction may serve as an ancillary tool for treatment planning of LSCC patients.

Machine learning explainability in nasopharyngeal cancer survival using LIME and SHAP

Nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) has a unique histopathology compared with other head and neck cancers. Individual NPC patients may attain different outcomes. This study aims to build a prognostic system by combining a highly accurate machine learning model (ML) model with explainable artificial intelligence to stratify NPC patients into low and high chance of survival groups. Explainability is provided using Local Interpretable Model Agnostic Explanations (LIME) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) techniques. A total of 1094 NPC patients were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database for model training and internal validation. We combined five different ML algorithms to form a uniquely stacked algorithm. The predictive performance of the stacked algorithm was compared with a state-of-the-art algorithm-extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to stratify the NPC patients into chance of survival groups. We validated our model with temporal validation (n = 547) and geographic external validation (Helsinki University Hospital NPC cohort, n = 60). The developed stacked predictive ML model showed an accuracy of 85.9% while the XGBoost had 84.5% after the training and testing phases. This demonstrated that both XGBoost and the stacked model showed comparable performance. External geographic validation of XGBoost model showed a c-index of 0.74, accuracy of 76.7%, and area under curve of 0.76. The SHAP technique revealed that age of the patient at diagnosis, T-stage, ethnicity, M-stage, marital status, and grade were among the prominent input variables in decreasing order of significance for the overall survival of NPC patients. LIME showed the degree of reliability of the prediction made by the model. In addition, both techniques showed how each feature contributed to the prediction made by the model. LIME and SHAP techniques provided personalized protective and risk factors for each NPC patient and unraveled some novel non-linear relationships between input features and survival chance. The examined ML approach showed the ability to predict the chance of overall survival of NPC patients. This is important for effective treatment planning care and informed clinical decisions. To enhance outcome results, including survival in NPC, ML may aid in planning individualized therapy for this patient population.