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Saengsin K, Sittiwangkul R, Borisuthipandit T, Wongyikul P, Tanasombatkul K, Phanacharoensawad T, Moonsawat G, Trongtrakul K, Phinyo P. Development of a clinical prediction tool for extubation failure in pediatric cardiac intensive care unit. Front Pediatr 2024; 12:1346198. [PMID: 38504995 PMCID: PMC10948403 DOI: 10.3389/fped.2024.1346198] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2023] [Accepted: 02/22/2024] [Indexed: 03/21/2024] Open
Abstract
Introduction/objective Extubation failure in pediatric patients with congenital or acquired heart diseases increases morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to develop a clinical risk score for predicting extubation failure to guide proper clinical decision-making and management. Methods We conducted a retrospective study. This clinical prediction score was developed using data from the Pediatric Cardiac Intensive Care Unit (PCICU) of the Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Thailand, from July 2016 to May 2022. Extubation failure was defined as the requirement for re-intubation within 48 h after extubation. Multivariable logistic regression was used for modeling. The score was evaluated in terms of discrimination and calibration. Results A total of 352 extubation events from 270 patients were documented. Among these, 40 events (11.36%) were extubation failure. Factors associated with extubation failure included history of pneumonia (OR: 4.14, 95% CI: 1.83-9.37, p = 0.001), history of re-intubation (OR: 5.99, 95% CI: 2.12-16.98, p = 0.001), and high saturation in physiologic cyanosis (OR: 5.94, 95% CI: 1.87-18.84, p = 0.003). These three factors were utilized to develop the risk score. The score showed acceptable discrimination with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.69-0.86), and good calibration. Conclusion The derived Pediatric CMU Extubation Failure Prediction Score (Ped-CMU ExFPS) could satisfactorily predict extubation failure in pediatric cardiac patients. Employing this score could promote proper personalized care. We suggest conducting further external validation studies before considering implementation in practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kwannapas Saengsin
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Pediatrics, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
- Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Clinical Statistics, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
| | - Rekwan Sittiwangkul
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Pediatrics, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
| | - Thirasak Borisuthipandit
- Division of Pulmonology and Critical Care, Department of Pediatrics, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
| | - Pakpoom Wongyikul
- Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Clinical Statistics, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
| | - Krittai Tanasombatkul
- Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Clinical Statistics, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
- Department of Family Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
| | | | | | - Konlawij Trongtrakul
- Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Clinical Statistics, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
- Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care Medicine, and Allergy, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
| | - Phichayut Phinyo
- Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Clinical Statistics, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
- Department of Family Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
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Jenkinson AC, Dassios T, Greenough A. Artificial intelligence in the NICU to predict extubation success in prematurely born infants. J Perinat Med 2024; 52:119-125. [PMID: 38059494 DOI: 10.1515/jpm-2023-0454] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2023] [Accepted: 11/11/2023] [Indexed: 12/08/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Mechanical ventilation in prematurely born infants, particularly if prolonged, can cause long term complications including bronchopulmonary dysplasia. Timely extubation then is essential, yet predicting its success remains challenging. Artificial intelligence (AI) may provide a potential solution. CONTENT A narrative review was undertaken to explore AI's role in predicting extubation success in prematurely born infants. Across the 11 studies analysed, the range of reported area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) for the selected prediction models was between 0.7 and 0.87. Only two studies implemented an external validation procedure. Comparison to the results of clinical predictors was made in two studies. One group reported a logistic regression model that outperformed clinical predictors on decision tree analysis, while another group reported clinical predictors outperformed their artificial neural network model (AUCs: ANN 0.68 vs. clinical predictors 0.86). Amongst the studies there was an heterogenous selection of variables for inclusion in prediction models, as well as variations in definitions of extubation failure. SUMMARY Although there is potential for AI to enhance extubation success, no model's performance has yet surpassed that of clinical predictors. OUTLOOK Future studies should incorporate external validation to increase the applicability of the models to clinical settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Allan C Jenkinson
- Department of Women and Children's Health, School of Life Course Sciences, Faculty of Life Sciences and Medicine, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Theodore Dassios
- Department of Women and Children's Health, School of Life Course Sciences, Faculty of Life Sciences and Medicine, King's College London, London, UK
- Neonatal Intensive Care Centre, King's College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK
| | - Anne Greenough
- Department of Women and Children's Health, School of Life Course Sciences, Faculty of Life Sciences and Medicine, King's College London, London, UK
- Neonatal Intensive Care Centre, King's College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK
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