A major infrastructure risk-assessment framework: Application to a cross-sea route project in China

Risk assessment of circular economy practices in construction industry of Pakistan

The construction industry (CI) is responsible for consuming 3 billion tons of natural raw materials annually. Also, as per the survey by World Resources Institute, the CI accounts for 40 % of the total waste generated globally. The solution to this inefficient resource usage and adverse effects on the ecosystem is implementing Circular Economy (CE) practices in CI. However, the concept of circular construction is in developmental stages. Therefore, it is more prone to damaging risks than traditional construction. The primary aim of this study is to identify and assess the risk related to implementing CE practices in developing country construction sector. To achieve this aim, 25 risks were shortlisted from the literature review and evaluated upon the probability, detection, and severity risk criteria. This study proposed a novel hybrid fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) approach to analyze the shortlisted risks. Fuzzy Step Wise Assessment Ratio Analysis (FSWARA) is employed to gauge the risk criterion weightage. Moreover, Fuzzy VIKOR (FVIKOR) is used to determine the risks' ranking as per the weightage of the risk criterion. The analyses ranked "lack of political support and incentives for circular construction", "difficulty in selection of circular construction experts", "profit uncertainty", and "circular material quality" as the most critical risks. Therefore, it is recommended for legislative authority to devise a framework that promotes and provides support to circular construction. Moreover, this study fills the literature gap by assessing the risks of CE practices in the CI of Pakistan.

Identifying Subjective Perspectives on Managing Underground Risks at Schiphol Airport

Recently, scholars have called for a focus on subjective aspects of risk management as a suitable lens for understanding how it functions. In line with this lens, this study focuses on project actors’ viewpoints on risk management in the context of construction projects to provide novel insights in risk management. Drawing on Renn's model and following a Q methodology, we identify four risk management approaches among asset managers and project managers working at the Dutch Schiphol Airport. The action-oriented and future-oriented viewpoints are dominant, while the expert input and stakeholder-centric viewpoints are in the minority. Our findings extend the risk management debate by showing that (1) there are various approaches to risk management that have been identified independently from the formal risk management; (2) these approaches cannot be explained by a project actor's role or objective within the project; and (3) that project actors have a dominant focus on managing complexity-induced risks at the expense of managing other types of risks.

Exploring Technical Decision-Making Risks in Construction Megaprojects Using Grounded Theory and System Dynamics

Technical decision-makings (TDMs) are a vital part of the decision-makings in construction megaprojects, facing high risks brought by technical complexity, dynamic environment, and subject cognition. Identifying technical decision-making risks (TDMRs) and exploring their interactions are important in megaproject management. Due to the high complexity of TDMs in megaprojects, TDMRs are complex and diverse. However, there is a lack of research on exploring the systematic TDMRs in megaprojects. To address this gap in knowledge, this paper aims to better understand the dynamic complexity of TDMRs in megaprojects by identifying the risks and exploring their interactions from a dynamic and systematic perspective. Grounded theory (GT) and system dynamics (SD) were adopted for this research. First, the GT was used to identify TDMRs in megaprojects and create a conceptual model depicting the relationships among TDMRs. Then, an SD model characterizing the causal structure of the TDMRs system in megaprojects is developed in both qualitative and quantitative manners. The developed model involves interrelationships among environmental risks, decision-making process risks, and decision-making execution process risks. After the validation of the model, a model simulation is conducted to predict the dynamic evolution process of the TDMRs. As a result, a multilayer risk list consisting of 42 index layer risk indicators, 13 field layer risk indicators, and 3 standard layer risk indicators is identified. The SD modeling results show that these multilevel TDMRs interact dynamically and have intricate influences on the total risk level of TDMs in megaprojects. The results of this study could be useful for decision-makers to identify and mitigate TDMRs in megaprojects.

Identifying the Key Risk Factors of Mega Infrastructure Projects from an Extended Sustainable Development Perspective

Mega infrastructure projects (MIPs) have become increasingly important to the realization of sustainable development in China. Sustainable development is a process of dynamic balance, and coordinating the triple bottom line (the environmental, social, and economic dimensions) will enable more sustainable development of MIPs. However, previous studies have lacked consideration of coordination when applying sustainable development principles to the systematic identification of risks to MIPs. The goals of this study were to clarify the definition and dimensions of the sustainable development of MIPs and to identify the key risks of MIPs. A literature review was performed to extend the definition of sustainable development of MIPs by combining the triple bottom line with a fourth coordination dimension. A conceptual model of MIP risk identification was then proposed from an extended sustainable development perspective, 22 sustainability elements and 75 risk factors were identified, and the key risk factors were determined based on the interview responses and fuzzy set theory. The results show that economic risks have a high probability, social risks have a high loss, environmental risks have an intermediate probability and loss, and coordination risks have the greatest impact. In addition, the three most important key risk factors were found to be construction and installation cost overruns, land acquisition and resettling cost overruns, and information sharing with the public. Identifying key risk factors can provide information to help stakeholders understand the risk factors associated with MIPs and formulate reasonable risk response strategies.

Risk Analysis and Management of Construction and Operations in Offshore Wind Power Project

Many countries have increased the use of renewable energy and strongly promoted offshore wind power (OWP). However, OWP in Asia is in the preliminary stage of development, for which no precedents exist. The literature on wind energy generation has mostly investigated the causes of onshore wind turbine accidents and risk prevention, and more work on the risks associated with domestic OWP is required for energy market development. According to statistics on international wind power accidents, most offshore accidents occur in the construction and operation stages. Therefore, this work investigates risk management in the construction and operations of offshore windfarms in Taiwan. The goal is to help decision-makers to understand better the risks of the industry and so more effectively manage them. In this study, risk factors are identified from organizing data in the literature, and research methods and action strategies are developed. Research and analysis follow the risk management steps in the PMBOK® Guide (A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge). The risk rankings and preventive measures that are based on the results of this study can serve as references for relevant industry personnel in island cities and nearby Asian countries to reduce risk in the management of OWP projects.

An Indicator System for Evaluating Operation and Maintenance Management of Mega Infrastructure Projects in China

Mega infrastructure projects provide a basic guarantee for social development, economic construction, and livelihood improvement. Their operation and maintenance (O&M) management are of great significance for the smooth operation and the realization of the value created by the projects. In order to provide an approach for effectively evaluating O&M management, this study develops a holistic indicator system using a mixed-review method from the national macro perspective in China. In this study, literature analysis, policy texts, expert interviews, and grounded theory were used to collect relevant data at home and abroad, and establish an initial evaluation indicator system with 23 indicators covering two dimensions and five aspects. Then the questionnaire survey and factor analysis were used to score and categorize the indicators, and finally an evaluation indicator system for O&M management of mega infrastructure projects was formed. The results show that social relations, environmental benefits, macro policy, and operational capacities play an important role in the evaluation of the O&M of mega infrastructure projects. This study helps the management team to avoid negative impacts in the O&M management of mega infrastructure projects and lays a theoretical foundation for future research. The indicator system in this study is based on the Chinese context, and it remains to be verified whether the indicator system is applicable to other countries due to the differences in political and cultural backgrounds in different regions.

A Comprehensive Assessment Approach for Water-Soil Environmental Risk during Railway Construction in Ecological Fragile Region Based on AHP and MEA

With China’s government facilitating railway projects, more railway lines inevitably pass through ecological fragile regions (EFRs). Railway construction activities in EFRs might cause detrimental impacts on the local water-soil environment (WSE), which is the basis of the local ecological system that if destroyed can induce secondary disasters. Studies on the WSE risk (WSER) during railway construction in EFRs are limited. As such, this study aims to offer preliminary insight into the WSER assessment of railway construction in EFRs. WSERs were identified firstly based on the literature review and field surveys, and thus a risk index framework for WSER assessment including 5 categories of WSERs and 16 second-order risks was established. Then a comprehensive quantitative assessment method was developed by integrating analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and matter-element analysis (MEA) to assess the overall WSERs of railway construction in EFRs. A case (i.e., the Mingan subproject of Hefei-Fuzhou railway) was selected to demonstrate and validate the developed approach. Results show that the proposed assessment approach can be applied to evaluate the WSERs during railway construction. In addition, the case study demonstrates that the risk of construction methods should be the key focus. Findings from this study enrich the knowledge body of sustainable railways and guide the project managers to conduct practical WSER assessment of railway construction.

Risk Assessment of High-Speed Rail Projects: A Risk Coupling Model Based on System Dynamics

Due to their characteristics and multiple objectives, high-speed rail (HSR) projects carry more complex risks than conventional projects and high correlation and conductivity are among the associated risk factors. Previous risk assessment frameworks for rail infrastructure have ignored the effects of risk interactions that inflate risk levels, namely, risk coupling effects. Based on a system dynamics method, this paper develops a risk coupling model for HSR project risk assessments. A risk factor list is established from a literature review, and relationships analysed using a case study and expert interviews. System dynamics equations are constructed and their parameters obtained by expert evaluations of risk factors. The proposed model is applied to a real-world HSR project to demonstrate it in detail. The model can evaluate the risk levels of HSR projects during a simulation period. In particular, it can identify the key coupling effects that are the main increased risk. It provides a significant resource, using which HSR project managers can identify and mitigate risks.

An Evidential Model for Environmental Risk Assessment in Projects Using Dempster–Shafer Theory of Evidence

One of the goals of sustainable development is to achieve economic and social growth according to environmental criteria. Nowadays, impact assessment is an efficient decision making method in planning and management with environmental perspectives. Environmental risk assessment is a tool to reduce the impacts and consequences of various activities on the environment in order to achieve sustainable development. One of the commonly used environmental risk assessment methods is the probability–impact matrix method, which is known as a quantitative method for risk assessment of projects. In this method, numerical estimates of probability and impact of risk occurrence are very difficult, and these factors are associated with uncertainty. When uncertainty exists, data integration is of great importance, for which the fuzzy inference system and evidence theory are known as effective methods. Unavailability of experts’ opinion and the exponential growth of the number of required fuzzy rules associated with the risk factors are two drawbacks of fuzzy inference. Dempster–Shafer’s theory of evidence is one of the popular theories used in intelligent systems for modeling and reasoning under uncertainty and inaccuracy. In this paper, an evidential model for project environmental risk assessment is proposed based on the Dempster–Shafer theory, which is capable of taking into account the uncertainties. The proposed model is used to assess the environmental risks of Maroon oil pipelines in Isfahan. In addition, the proposed model is used in the case of tunneling risk assessment taken from the subject literature. To evaluate the validity of the proposed evidential model, the results are compared in two case studies, with the results of the conventional risk assessment method and the fuzzy inference system method. The comparative results show that the proposed model has a high potential for project risk assessment under an uncertain environment.

Identifying the Critical Risks in Railway Projects Based on Fuzzy and Sensitivity Analysis: A Case Study of Belt and Road Projects

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a Chinese development strategy developed in order to establish connectivity and deepen cooperation between China and other countries, increase trade, and support the socio-economic development of vast regions. A significant number of railway projects are planned to be constructed under BRI since railways are the most efficient means of transportation. This paper investigates the critical risks in railway projects implemented under BRI. In total, 24 potential risks in BRI railway projects are identified and categorized into 6 groups. A questionnaire survey is conducted in order to collect data about the probability of risk occurrence and their impact. To identify the critical risks in railway projects, a novel method based on fuzzy and sensitivity analysis is developed and applied for risk assessment. This method uses a fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach to assess risks and sensitivity analysis as criteria for critical risk identification. The results show that the most critical risks in railway projects are changes in design, design errors, cooperation between China and BRI country, loan risk, complex geological conditions of terrain, and geopolitical risk. The theoretical contribution of this paper is a novel method which combines fuzzy and sensitivity analysis into a single approach.

We need to use the words

Sometimes it’s important to simply say the words … as it is in the beginning of wisdom that is the definition of terms. When historians look at the world of project management, what will they say that we have said about climate change? Certainly more general—but absolutely legitimate—terms such as ‘sustainability’ have been used, but in a basic term search in the 3 oldest project management journals, I was surprised to see only a few dozen uses of ‘climate change’ as a specific term. Theconversation started a long time ago using those words, and PMRP would like to encourage more with this commentary on one of the central topics of this journal … climate change.