Nomogram prediction of survival and recurrence in patients with extrahepatic bile duct cancer undergoing curative resection followed by adjuvant chemoradiation therapy

CT Texture Analysis of Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma-Associations With Tumor Grading, Tumor Markers and Clinical Outcome

BACKGROUND

Texture analysis derived from computed tomography (CT) may provide clinically relevant imaging biomarkers associated with tumor histopathology. Perihilar cholangiocarcinoma is a malignant disease with an overall poor prognosis.

AIMS

The present study sought to elucidate possible associations between texture features derived from CT images with grading, tumor markers, and survival in extrahepatic, perihilar cholangiocarcinomas tumors.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 22 patients (10 females, 45%) with a mean age of 71.8 ± 8.7 years. Texture analysis was performed using the free available Mazda software. All tumors were histopathologically confirmed. Survival and clinical parameters were used as primary study outcomes.

RESULTS

In discrimination analysis, "S(1,1)SumVarnc" was statistically significantly different between patients with long-term survival and nonlong-term survival (mean 275.8 ± 32.6 vs. 239.7 ± 26.0, p = 0.01). The first-order parameter "skewness" was associated with the tumor marker "carcinoembryonic antigen" (CEA) (r = -0.7, p = 0.01). A statistically significant correlation of the texture parameter "S(5,0)SumVarnc" with tumor grading was identified (r = -0.6, p < 0.01). Several other texture features correlated with tumor markers CA-19-9 and AFP, as well as with T and N stage of tumors.

CONCLUSION

Several texture features derived from CT images were associated with tumor characteristics and survival in patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinomas. CT texture features could be used as valuable novel imaging markers in clinical routine.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival with unresected cholangiocarcinoma undergoing external radiotherapy

Objective

To analyze the prognostic factors of patients with cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) who were unresected and received radiotherapy to establish a nomogram model for the prediction of patient cancer-specific survival (CSS).

Methods

Suitable patient cases were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, survival rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, prognostic factors were analyzed by Lasso, Cox regression, and nomogram was developed based on independent prognostic factors to predict 6 and 12 months CSS. The consistency index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were tested for the predictive efficacy of the model, respectively.

Results

The primary site, tumor size, T-stage, M-stage, and chemotherapy (P < 0.05) were identified as independent risk factors after Cox and Lasso regression analysis. Patients in training cohort had a 6 months CSS rates was 68.6 ± 2.6%, a 12-month CSS rates was 49.0 ± 2.8%. The median CSS time of 12.00 months (95% CI: 10.17-13.83 months). The C-index was 0.664 ± 0.039 for the training cohort and 0.645 ± 0.042 for the validation cohort. The nomogram predicted CSS and demonstrated satisfactory and consistent predictive performance in 6 (73.4 vs. 64.9%) and 12 months (72.2 vs. 64.9%), respectively. The external validation calibration plot is shown AUC for 6- and 12-month compared with AJCC stage was (71.2 vs. 63.0%) and (65.9 vs. 59.8%). Meanwhile, the calibration plot of the nomogram for the probability of CSS at 6 and 12 months indicates that the actual and nomogram predict that the CSS remains largely consistent. DCA showed that using a nomogram to predict CSS results in better clinical decisions compared to the AJCC staging system.

Conclusion

A nomogram model based on clinical prognostic characteristics can be used to provide CSS prediction reference for patients with CCA who have not undergone surgery but have received radiotherapy.

Molecular diagnostics and biomarkers in cholangiocarcinoma

Regardless of anatomic origin, cholangiocarcinoma is generally an aggressive malignancy with a relatively high case fatality. Surgical resection with curative intent remains the best opportunity to achieve meaningful long-term survival. Most patients present, however, with advanced disease and less than 20% of patients are candidates for surgical resection. Unfortunately, even patients who undergo resection have a 5-year survival that ranges from 20 to 40%. Biomarkers are indicators of normal, pathologic, or biologic responses to an intervention and can range from a characteristic (i.e., blood pressure reading which can detect hypertension) to specific genetic mutations or proteins (i.e., carcinoembryonic antigen level). Novel biomarkers and improved molecular diagnostics represent an attractive opportunity to improve detection as well as to identify novel therapeutic targets for patients with cholangiocarcinoma. We herein review the latest advances in molecular diagnostics and biomarkers related to the early detection and treatment of patients with cholangiocarcinoma.

Quality and performance of validated prognostic models for survival after resection of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The objective of this systematic review was to evaluate the performance of prognostic survival models for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) when validated in an external dataset. Furthermore, it sought to identify common prognostic factors across models, and assess methodological quality of the studies in which the models were developed.

METHODS

The PRISMA guidelines were followed. External validation studies of prognostic models for patients with iCCA were searched in 5 databases. Model performance was assessed by discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

Thirteen external validation studies were identified, validating 18 different prognostic models. The Wang model was the sole model with good performance (C-index above 0.70) for overall survival. This model incorporated tumor size and number, lymph node metastasis, direct invasion into surrounding tissue, vascular invasion, Carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9, and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). Methodological quality was poor in 11/12 statistical models. The Wang model had the highest score with 13 out of 17 points.

CONCLUSION

The Wang model for prognosis after resection of iCCA has good quality and good performance at external validation, while most prognostic models for iCCA have been developed with poor methodological quality and show poor performance at external validation.

Risk stratification and prognostic nomogram for post-recurrence overall survival in patients with recurrent extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate post-recurrence overall survival (PROS) in patients with recurrent extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (EHC) and to indicate which groups of patients need active salvage treatments.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the records of 251 consecutive patients who underwent curative surgery followed by adjuvant chemoradiotherapy for EHC. Among these, 144 patients experienced a recurrence and were included for further analysis.

RESULTS

The median PROS was 7 months (range, 1-130). In multivariate analysis, poorly differentiated histology, short disease-free survival, poor performance status, and elevated CA 19-9 were identified as significant prognosticators for poor PROS. Based on this, we stratified study patients into three categories by the number of risk factors: group 1 (0 or 1 factors), group 2 (2 factors) and group 3 (3-4 factors). Median PROS for groups 1, 2, and 3 were 13, 7, and 5 months, respectively (p < 0.001). Group 1 patients showed a significant benefit from salvage treatment, but groups 2 and 3 did not demonstrate clear benefit. In addition, we developed a nomogram to specifically identify individual patient's prognosis.

CONCLUSION

Our simple risk stratification as well as proposed nomogram can classify patients into subgroups with different prognosis and will help facilitate personalized strategies after recurrence.

Primary site and regional lymph node involvement are independent prognostic factors for early-stage extranodal nasal-type natural killer/T cell lymphoma

Background

Nasal-type extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKTCL) originates primarily in the nasal cavity or extra-nasal sites within the upper aerodigestive tract. However, it is unclear whether the primary site can serve as an independent prognostic factor or whether the varying clinical outcomes observed with different primary sites can be attributed merely to their propensities of regional lymph node involvement. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic implications of the primary site and regional lymph node involvement in patients with early-stage nasal-type ENKTCL.

Methods

To develop a nomogram, we reviewed the clinical data of 215 consecutively diagnosed patients with early-stage nasal-type ENKTCL who were treated in Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center with chemotherapy and radiotherapy between 2000 and 2011. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were determined using a concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve.

Results

The 5-year overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) rates of patients with nasal ENKTCL were higher than those of patients with extra-nasal ENKTCL (OS: 68.2% vs. 46.0%, P = 0.030; PFS: 53.4% vs. 26.6%, P = 0.010). The 5-year OS and PFS rates of patients with Ann Arbor stage IE ENKTCL were higher than those of patients with Ann Arbor stage IIE ENKTCL (OS: 66.3% vs. 59.2%, P = 0.003; PFS: 51.4% vs. 40.3%, P = 0.009). Multivariate analysis showed that age >60 years, ECOG performance status score ≥2, elevated lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level, extra-nasal primary site, and regional lymph node involvement were significantly associated with lower 5-year OS rate; age >60 years, elevated LDH level, extra-nasal primary site, and regional lymph node involvement were significantly associated with lower 5-year PFS rate. The nomogram included the primary site and regional lymph node involvement based on multivariate analysis. The calibration curve showed good agreement between the predicted and actual 5-year OS and PFS rates, and the C-indexes of the nomogram for the OS and PFS rates were 0.697 and 0.634, respectively.

Conclusions

The primary site and regional lymph node involvement are independent prognostic factors for early-stage ENKTCL treated with chemotherapy followed by definitive radiotherapy.

Survival after resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma-development and external validation of a prognostic nomogram

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to derive and validate a prognostic nomogram to predict disease-specific survival (DSS) after a curative intent resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A nomogram was developed from 173 patients treated at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC), New York, USA. The nomogram was externally validated in 133 patients treated at the Academic Medical Center (AMC), Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Prognostic accuracy was assessed with concordance estimates and calibration, and compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. The nomogram will be available as web-based calculator at mskcc.org/nomograms.

RESULTS

For all 306 patients, the median overall survival (OS) was 40 months and the median DSS 41 months. Median follow-up for patients alive at last follow-up was 48 months. Lymph node involvement, resection margin status, and tumor differentiation were independent prognostic factors in the derivation cohort (MSKCC). A nomogram with these prognostic factors had a concordance index of 0.73 compared with 0.66 for the AJCC staging system. In the validation cohort (AMC), the concordance index was 0.72, compared with 0.60 for the AJCC staging system. Calibration was good in the derivation cohort; in the validation cohort patients had a better median DSS than predicted by the model.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed nomogram to predict DSS after curative intent resection of PHC had a better prognostic accuracy than the AJCC staging system. Calibration was suboptimal because DSS differed between the two institutions. The nomogram can inform patients and physicians, guide shared decision making for adjuvant therapy, and stratify patients in future randomized, controlled trials.

A nomogram for predicting the benefit of adjuvant cytokine-induced killer cell immunotherapy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

The benefits of adjuvant cytokine-induced killer (CIK) cell immunotherapy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remain mixed among patients. Here, we constructed a prognostic nomogram to enable individualized predictions of survival benefit of adjuvant CIK cell treatment for HCC patients. Survival analysis showed that the median overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) for patients in the hepatectomy/CIK combination group were 41 and 16 months, respectively, compared to 28 and 12 months for patients in the hepatectomy alone group (control). Based on multivariate analysis of the entire cohort, independent factors for OS were tumor size, tumor capsule, pathological grades, total bilirubin, albumin, prothrombin time, alpha-fetoprotein, and tumor number, which were incorporated into the nomogram. The survival prediction model performed well, as assessed by the c-index and calibration curve. Internal validation revealed a c-index of 0.698, which was significantly greater than the c-index value of the TNM (tumor–node–metastasis) staging systems of 0.634. The calibration curves fitted well. In conclusions, our developed nomogram resulted in more accurate individualized predictions of the survival benefit from adjuvant CIK cell treatment after hepatectomy. The model may provide valuable information to aid in the decision making regarding the application of adjuvant CIK cell immunotherapy.