Canadian Perspectives on Radiation Oncologist Workforce Planning and the Job Market

Supply and Demand for Radiation Oncologists in Canada: Workforce Planning Projections From 2020 to 2040

PURPOSE

The number of Canadians diagnosed with cancer, and subsequent demand for radiation therapy, are expected to increase over time. This study aimed to update our needs-based workforce planning model to ensure appropriate staffing levels in the future.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

The supply of radiation oncologists, by age group, sex, and full-time equivalent status, was projected from 2020 to 2040 using a recursive-aging, input-output model developed with seeding parameters derived from national sources. The demand for radiation oncologists until 2040 was estimated using referral patterns for radiation therapy and consultation workload metrics applied to projected annual cancer incident cases to calculate required full-time equivalent positions. Baseline model parameters were also applied to the 2005-2019 workforce and incident case data to evaluate preprojection supply and demand trends.

RESULTS

Preprojection trends for 2005 to 2019 revealed accelerated staffing growth that transitioned from a workforce shortage to a surplus state in 2014 followed by substantial growth slowdown in 2016. The model predicts a transient surplus of radiation oncologists until 2026 followed by a projected deficit in subsequent years. Sensitivity analyses using the plausible range for each parameter continued to favor an undersupply, suggesting a trainee shortage unable to meet workforce expansion needs. Considering possible future declining trends in radiotherapy utilization and workload, calculations to inform corrective efforts in resident numbers resulted in 25 entry positions per year, up from 21 per year currently. Geographic distribution of trainees, relative to workforce and cancer incidence distributions, could be improved with more residency positions in Canadian regions outside Ontario.

CONCLUSIONS

Demand for radiation therapy and radiation oncologists in Canada are expected to grow more quickly than future expansion in staffing levels. Our workforce planning model provides evidence for more trainee requirements to inform stakeholders of possible corrective actions to training programs and recruitment. Further research is needed to explore additional strategies to expand capacity and high-quality delivery of radiation therapy to meet the foreseeable increase in Canadian patients with cancer.

Representation of Women in Canadian Radiation Oncology Trainees and Radiation Oncologists: Progress or Regress?

Purpose

Methods and Materials

Results

Conclusions

Employment Outcomes for Canadian Radiation Oncology Graduates: 2020 Assessment and Longitudinal Trends

Purpose

Canadian radiation oncology (RO) trainees have experienced employment challenges after residency training. The present study was conducted to evaluate current employment trends and perform comparisons to prior reported assessments.

Methods and Materials

A survey was administered to all 13 Canadian RO program directors requesting the employment status and location of their graduates during the past 3 years, and their perceptions on graduates’ employment challenges. Visa trainees were excluded. Findings were compared with surveys performed in 2014, 2016, and 2018.

Results

The response rate from RO program directors was 100%. There were 77 graduates identified who completed their residency training between 2017 and 2020. All had known employment status and location. Two (17%) 2020 graduates, 16 (84%) 2019 graduates, 17 (81%) 2018 graduates, and 24 (100%) 2017 graduates had staff employment. Of the 59 graduates with staff positions, 86% were in Canada. Some graduates (28%) obtained staff or locum employment in a province other than their training program. The proportion of graduates obtaining staff positions 1 year after residency increased to 84% from 46%-48% in prior assessments. Most program directors (62%) did not perceive any difficulties with their graduates finding staff employment or trainees transferring to training programs in other disciplines owing to perceived workforce challenges.

Conclusions

Compared with 3 prior employment outcome assessments, this study observed a higher proportion of graduates with staff positions in Canada, fewer total graduates, fewer graduates seeking staff employment or in fellowship positions, and a trend for fewer graduates seeking employment or fellowships abroad. These findings support the view that the Canadian RO job market continues to improve. Although employment challenges for newly certified, Canadian-trained radiation oncologists still exist, national corrective measures to regulate resident intake in 2011 appear to have had a positive effect on the employment outcomes of recent Canadian RO graduates.