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Yu X, Chen W, Han W, Wu P, Shen Y, Huang Y, Xin S, Wu S, Zhao S, Sun H, Lei G, Wang Z, Xue F, Zhang L, Gu W, Jiang J. Prediction of complications associated with general surgery using a Bayesian network. Surgery 2023; 174:1227-1234. [PMID: 37633812 DOI: 10.1016/j.surg.2023.07.022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2023] [Revised: 07/16/2023] [Accepted: 07/18/2023] [Indexed: 08/28/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Numerous attempts have been made to identify risk factors for surgery complications, but few studies have identified accurate methods of predicting complex outcomes involving multiple complications. METHODS We performed a prospective cohort study of general surgical inpatients who attended 4 regionally representative hospitals in China from January to June 2015 and January to June 2016. The risk factors were identified using logistic regression. A Bayesian network model, consisting of directed arcs and nodes, was used to analyze the relationships between risk factors and complications. Probability ratios for complications for a given node state relative to the baseline probability were calculated to quantify the potential effects of risk factors on complications or of complications on other complications. RESULTS We recruited 19,223 participants and identified 21 nodes, representing 9 risk factors and 12 complications, and 55 direct relationships between these. Respiratory failure was at the center of the network, directly affected by 5 risk factors, and directly affected 7 complications. Cardiopulmonary resuscitation and sepsis or septic shock also directly affected death. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the ability of the network to predict complications was >0.7. Notably, the probability of other severe complications or death significantly increased when a severe complication occurred. Most importantly, there was a 141-fold higher risk of death when cardiopulmonary resuscitation was required. CONCLUSION We have created a Bayesian network that displays how risk factors affect complications and their interrelationships and permits the accurate prediction of complications and the creation of appropriate preventive guidelines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaochu Yu
- Department of Nephrology, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Wangyue Chen
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/School of Basic Medicine, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Wei Han
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/School of Basic Medicine, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Wu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/School of Basic Medicine, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Yubing Shen
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/School of Basic Medicine, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Yuguang Huang
- Department of Anaesthesiology, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Shijie Xin
- Department of Vascular and Thyroid Surgery, The First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, Liaoning Province, China
| | - Shizheng Wu
- Institute of Geriatric, Qinghai Provincial People's Hospital, Xining, China
| | - Shengxiu Zhao
- Department of Nursing, Qinghai Provincial People's Hospital, Xining, China
| | - Hong Sun
- Department of Otolaryngology-Skull Base Surgery, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan Province, China
| | - Guanghua Lei
- Department of Orthopaedics, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan Province, China
| | - Zixing Wang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/School of Basic Medicine, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Fang Xue
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/School of Basic Medicine, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Luwen Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/School of Basic Medicine, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Wentao Gu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/School of Basic Medicine, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Jingmei Jiang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/School of Basic Medicine, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
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Malgras B, Dokmak S, Aussilhou B, Pocard M, Sauvanet A. Management of postoperative pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy. J Visc Surg 2023; 160:39-51. [PMID: 36702720 DOI: 10.1016/j.jviscsurg.2023.01.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/26/2023]
Abstract
A postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is the main complication after cephalic pancreaticoduodenectomy (CPD). Unlike its prevention, the curative management of POPFs has long been poorly codified. This review seeks best practices for managing POPFs after CPD. The diagnosis of a POPF is based on two signs: (i) an amylase level in drained fluid more than 3 times the upper limit of the blood amylase level; and (ii) an abnormal clinical course. In the standardised definition of the International Study Group of Pancreatic Surgery, a purely biochemical fistula is no longer counted as a POPF and is treated by gradual withdrawal of the drain over at most 3 weeks. POPF risk can be scored using pre- and intraoperative clinical criteria, many of which are related to the quality of the pancreatic parenchyma and are common to several scoring systems. The prognostic value of these scores can be improved as early as Day 1 by amylase assays in blood and drained fluid. Recent literature, including in particular the Dutch randomised trial PORSCH, argues for early systematic detection of a POPF (periodic assays, CT-scan with injection indicated on standardised clinical and biological criteria plus an opinion from a pancreatic surgeon), for rapid minimally invasive treatment of collections (percutaneous drainage, antibiotic therapy indicated on standardised criteria) to forestall severe septic and/or haemorrhagic forms, and for the swift withdrawal of abdominal drains when the risk of a POPF is theoretically low and evolution is favourable. A haemorrhage occurring after Day 1 always requires CT angiography with arterial time and monitoring in intensive care. Minimally invasive treatment of a POPF (radiologically-guided percutaneous drainage or, more rarely, endoscopic drainage, arterial embolisation) should be preferred as first-line treatment. The addition of artificial nutrition (enteral via a nasogastric or nasojejunal tube, or parenteral) is most often useful. If minimally invasive treatment fails, then reintervention is indicated, preserving the remaining pancreas if possible, but the expected mortality is higher.
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Affiliation(s)
- B Malgras
- Digestive and endocrine surgery department, Bégin Army Training Hospital, 69, avenue de Paris, 94160 Saint-Mandé, France; Val de Grâce School, 1, place Alphonse-Lavéran, 75005 Paris, France
| | - S Dokmak
- Hepatobiliary and pancreatic surgery department, Paris-Cité University, Beaujon Hospital, AP-HP, 92110 Clichy, France
| | - B Aussilhou
- Hepatobiliary and pancreatic surgery department, Paris-Cité University, Beaujon Hospital, AP-HP, 92110 Clichy, France
| | - M Pocard
- Department of pancreatic and hepatobiliary digestive surgery and liver transplantation, Pitié Salpêtrière Hospital, 41-83, boulevard de l'Hôpital, 75013 Paris, France; UMR 1275 CAP Paris-Tech, Paris-Cité University, Lariboisière Hospital, 2, rue Ambroise-Paré, 75010 Paris, France
| | - A Sauvanet
- Hepatobiliary and pancreatic surgery department, Paris-Cité University, Beaujon Hospital, AP-HP, 92110 Clichy, France.
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Torres OJM, Moraes-Junior JMA, Fernandes EDSM, Hackert T. Surgical Management of Postoperative Grade C Pancreatic Fistula following Pancreatoduodenectomy. Visc Med 2022; 38:233-242. [PMID: 36160826 PMCID: PMC9421704 DOI: 10.1159/000521727] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2021] [Accepted: 12/19/2021] [Indexed: 08/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The incidence of Grade C postoperative pancreatic fistula ranges from 2 to 11% depending on the type of pancreatic resection. This complication may frequently require early relaparotomy and the surgical approach remains technically challenging and is still associated with a high mortality. Infectious complications and post-operative hemorrhage are the two most common causes of reoperation. Summary The best management of grade C pancreatic fistulas remains controversial and ranges from conservative approaches up to completion pancreatectomy. The choice of the technique depends on the patient's conditions, intraoperative findings, and surgeon's discretion. A pancreas-preserving strategy appears to be attractive, including from simple to more complex procedures such as debridement and drainage, and external wirsungostomy. Completion pancreatectomy should be reserved for selected cases, including stable patients with severe infection complication or hemorrhage after pancreatic fistula who do not respond to pancreas-preserving procedures. Key Messages This review describes the current options for management of grade C pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy with regard to indication, choice of procedure and outcomes of the different approaches.
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Affiliation(s)
- Orlando Jorge Martins Torres
- Department of Surgery, Hepatopancreatobiliary Unit, Presidente Dutra University Hospital − Maranhão Federal University, São Luiz, Brazil
| | - José Maria Assunção Moraes-Junior
- Department of Surgery, Hepatopancreatobiliary Unit, Presidente Dutra University Hospital − Maranhão Federal University, São Luiz, Brazil
| | | | - Thilo Hackert
- Department of General, Visceral and Transplantation Surgery, Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, Germany
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Groen JV, Smits FJ, Koole D, Besselink MG, Busch OR, den Dulk M, van Eijck CHJ, Groot Koerkamp B, van der Harst E, de Hingh IH, Karsten TM, de Meijer VE, Pranger BK, Molenaar IQ, Bonsing BA, van Santvoort HC, Mieog JSD. Completion pancreatectomy or a pancreas-preserving procedure during relaparotomy for pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy: a multicentre cohort study and meta-analysis. Br J Surg 2021; 108:1371-1379. [PMID: 34608941 PMCID: PMC10364904 DOI: 10.1093/bjs/znab273] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2020] [Accepted: 06/30/2021] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite the fact that primary percutaneous catheter drainage has become standard practice, some patients with pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy ultimately undergo a relaparotomy. The aim of this study was to compare completion pancreatectomy with a pancreas-preserving procedure in patients undergoing relaparotomy for pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy. METHODS This retrospective cohort study of nine institutions included patients who underwent relaparotomy for pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy from 2005-2018. Furthermore, a systematic review and meta-analysis were performed according to the PRISMA guidelines. RESULTS From 4877 patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy, 786 (16 per cent) developed a pancreatic fistula grade B/C and 162 (3 per cent) underwent a relaparotomy for pancreatic fistula. Of these patients, 36 (22 per cent) underwent a completion pancreatectomy and 126 (78 per cent) a pancreas-preserving procedure. Mortality was higher after completion pancreatectomy (20 (56 per cent) versus 40 patients (32 per cent); P = 0.009), which remained after adjusting for sex, age, BMI, ASA score, previous reintervention, and organ failure in the 24 h before relaparotomy (adjusted odds ratio 2.55, 95 per cent c.i. 1.07 to 6.08). The proportion of additional reinterventions was not different between groups (23 (64 per cent) versus 84 patients (67 per cent); P = 0.756). The meta-analysis including 33 studies evaluating 745 patients, confirmed the association between completion pancreatectomy and mortality (Mantel-Haenszel random-effects model: odds ratio 1.99, 95 per cent c.i. 1.03 to 3.84). CONCLUSION Based on the current data, a pancreas-preserving procedure seems preferable to completion pancreatectomy in patients in whom a relaparotomy is deemed necessary for pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy.
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Affiliation(s)
- J V Groen
- Department of Surgery, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - F J Smits
- Department of Surgery, Regional Academic Cancer Centre Utrecht, University Medical Centre Utrecht, and St. Antonius Hospital Nieuwegein, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - D Koole
- Department of Surgery, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - M G Besselink
- Department of Surgery, Cancer Centre Amsterdam, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - O R Busch
- Department of Surgery, Cancer Centre Amsterdam, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - M den Dulk
- Department of Surgery, Maastricht University Medical Centre, Maastricht, the Netherlands
| | - C H J van Eijck
- Department of Surgery, Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - B Groot Koerkamp
- Department of Surgery, Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - E van der Harst
- Department of Surgery, Maasstad Hospital, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - I H de Hingh
- Department of Surgery, Catharina Hospital, Eindhoven, the Netherlands.,Department of Epidemiology, GROW - School for Oncology and Developmental Biology, Maastricht UMC+, Maastricht, the Netherlands
| | - T M Karsten
- Department of Surgery, Onze Lieve Vrouwe Gasthuis (loc. Oost), Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - V E de Meijer
- Department of Surgery, University of Groningen and University Medical Centre Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
| | - B K Pranger
- Department of Surgery, University of Groningen and University Medical Centre Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
| | - I Q Molenaar
- Department of Surgery, Regional Academic Cancer Centre Utrecht, University Medical Centre Utrecht, and St. Antonius Hospital Nieuwegein, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - B A Bonsing
- Department of Surgery, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - H C van Santvoort
- Department of Surgery, Regional Academic Cancer Centre Utrecht, University Medical Centre Utrecht, and St. Antonius Hospital Nieuwegein, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - J S D Mieog
- Department of Surgery, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, the Netherlands
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Wroński M, Cebulski W, Witkowski B, Guzel T, Karkocha D, Lech G, Słodkowski M. Surgical management of the grade C pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy. HPB (Oxford) 2019; 21:1166-1174. [PMID: 30777699 DOI: 10.1016/j.hpb.2019.01.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/02/2018] [Revised: 11/25/2018] [Accepted: 01/11/2019] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Surgical management of severe pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy remains challenging, and carries high mortality. The aim of this retrospective study was to compare different surgical techniques used at relaparotomy for pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy, and to identify factors predictive of failure to rescue. METHODS A total of 43 patients after pancreatoduodenectomy developed a pancreatic fistula requiring relaparotomy. The perioperative data and outcomes were reviewed retrospectively. RESULTS Completion pancreatectomy, simple drainage of the pancreatic anastomosis and external wirsungostomy were performed in 17, 16, and 10 cases, respectively. The mortality rate for completion pancreatectomy was 47.1%, compared with 56.3% for simple drainage (p = 0.598) and 50.0% for external wirsungostomy (p = 0.883). Simple drainage was associated with a higher rate of further relaparotomies (56.3%) in comparison with completion pancreatectomy (23.5%, p = 0.055) and external wirsungostomy (0%, p = 0.003). A rescue resection of the pancreatic remnant after failed simple drainage resulted invariably in death. On multivariate analysis, the factors predictive of mortality after relaparotomy for pancreatic fistula were organ failure on the day of reoperation (p = 0.001) and need of further surgical reintervention (p = 0.007). CONCLUSION Timely reintervention and appropriate surgical technique are essential for reducing mortality after reoperation for pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marek Wroński
- Department of General, Gastroenterological and Oncological Surgery, Medical University of Warsaw, ul. Banacha 1A, 02-097, Warsaw, Poland.
| | - Włodzimierz Cebulski
- Department of General, Gastroenterological and Oncological Surgery, Medical University of Warsaw, ul. Banacha 1A, 02-097, Warsaw, Poland
| | - Bartosz Witkowski
- College of Economic Analysis, Division of Probabilistic Methods, Warsaw School of Economics, Al. Niepodległości 162, 02-554, Warsaw, Poland
| | - Tomasz Guzel
- Department of General, Gastroenterological and Oncological Surgery, Medical University of Warsaw, ul. Banacha 1A, 02-097, Warsaw, Poland
| | - Dominika Karkocha
- Department of General, Gastroenterological and Oncological Surgery, Medical University of Warsaw, ul. Banacha 1A, 02-097, Warsaw, Poland
| | - Gustaw Lech
- Department of General, Gastroenterological and Oncological Surgery, Medical University of Warsaw, ul. Banacha 1A, 02-097, Warsaw, Poland
| | - Maciej Słodkowski
- Department of General, Gastroenterological and Oncological Surgery, Medical University of Warsaw, ul. Banacha 1A, 02-097, Warsaw, Poland
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