A practical risk scale for predicting morbidity and mortality in the emergency general surgical setting: A prospective multi-center study

Simplified risk-prediction for benchmarking and quality improvement in emergency general surgery. Prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Emergency General Surgery (EGS) conditions account for millions of deaths worldwide, yet it is practiced without benchmarking-based quality improvement programs. The aim of this observational, prospective, multicenter, nationwide study was to determine the best benchmark cutoff points in EGS, as a reference to guide improvement measures.

METHODS

Over a 6-month period, 38 centers (5% of all public hospitals) attending EGS patients on a 24-h, 7-days a week basis, enrolled consecutive patients requiring an emergent/urgent surgical procedure. Patients were stratified into cohorts of low (i.e., expected morbidity risk <33%), middle and high risk using the novel m-LUCENTUM calculator.

RESULTS

A total of 7258 patients were included; age (mean ± SD) was 51.1 ± 21.5 years, 43.2% were female. Benchmark cutoffs in the low-risk cohort (5639 patients, 77.7% of total) were: use of laparoscopy ≥40.9%, length of hospital stays ≤3 days, any complication within 30 days ≤ 17.7%, and 30-day mortality ≤1.1%. The variables with the greatest impact were septicemia on length of hospital stay (21 days; adjusted beta coefficient 16.8; 95% CI: 15.3 to 18.3; P < .001), and respiratory failure on mortality (risk-adjusted population attributable fraction 44.6%, 95% CI 29.6 to 59.6, P < .001). Use of laparoscopy (odds ratio 0.764, 95% CI 0.678 to 0.861; P < .001), and intraoperative blood loss (101-500 mL: odds ratio 2.699, 95% CI 2.152 to 3.380; P < .001; and 500-1000 mL: odds ratio 2.875, 95% CI 1.403 to 5.858; P = .013) were associated with increased morbidity.

CONCLUSIONS

This study offers, for the first time, clinically-based benchmark values in EGS and identifies measures for improvement.

Comprehensive Laboratory Data Analysis to Predict the Clinical Severity of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in 1,952 Patients in Daegu, Korea

Background

Laboratory parameter abnormalities are commonly observed in COVID-19 patients; however, their clinical significance remains controversial. We assessed the prevalence, characteristics, and clinical impact of laboratory parameters in COVID-19 patients hospitalized in Daegu, Korea.

Methods

We investigated the clinical and laboratory parameters of 1,952 COVID-19 patients on admission in nine hospitals in Daegu, Korea. The average patient age was 58.1 years, and 700 (35.9%) patients were men. The patients were classified into mild (N=1,612), moderate (N=294), and severe (N=46) disease groups based on clinical severity scores. We used chi-square test, multiple comparison analysis, and multinomial logistic regression to evaluate the correlation between laboratory parameters and disease severity.

Results

Laboratory parameters on admission in the three disease groups were significantly different in terms of hematologic (Hb, Hct, white blood cell count, lymphocyte%, and platelet count), coagulation (prothrombin time and activated partial thromboplastin time), biochemical (albumin, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, lactate, blood urea nitrogen, creatinine, and electrolytes), inflammatory (C-reactive protein and procalcitonin), cardiac (creatinine kinase MB isoenzyme and troponin I), and molecular virologic (Ct value of SARS-CoV-2 RdRP gene) parameters. Relative lymphopenia, prothrombin time prolongation, and hypoalbuminemia were significant indicators of COVID-19 severity. Patients with both hypoalbuminemia and lymphopenia had a higher risk of severe COVID-19.

Conclusions

Laboratory parameter abnormalities on admission are common, are significantly associated with clinical severity, and can serve as independent predictors of COVID-19 severity. Monitoring the laboratory parameters, including albumin and lymphocyte count, is crucial for timely treatment of COVID-19.

Protective and therapeutic experience of perioperative safety in extremely elderly patients with biliary diseases

To explore the protective and therapeutic measures of improving perioperative safety in extremely elderly patients with biliary diseases, so as to improve the therapeutic efficacy of surgery. A retrospective case–control study of 412 elderly patients with biliary diseases was carried out from July 2013 to July 2019. Seventy eight cases were divided into the high age (HA) group (≥80 years) and 334 into the middle–low age (MLA) group (60–79 years). In the HA compared with MLA group, 1. Preoperative coexisting diseases: the occurrence of coexisting coronary heart disease (CHD), hypertension, chronic bronchitis with emphysema, hypoproteinemia, and anemia were significantly increased; 2. Laboratory examinations: function of liver, kidneys, heart, lungs, and blood coagulation significantly declined; 3. Surgical procedures: open cholecystectomy with transcystic common bile duct (CBD) exploration significantly higher, while laparoscopic cholecystectomy significantly lower; 4. Operative effects: intraoperative blood loss, operation time, postoperative hospital stay, and length of hospitalization significantly increased or prolonged; 5. Postoperative complications: postoperative respiratory failure, pulmonary infection, anemia and electrolyte disorder significantly increased; 6. Therapeutic outcomes: no significant difference in the therapeutic effects. Although the surgical risk was significantly increased, there was no significant difference in the therapeutic efficacy in the HA compared with MLA group, suggesting that surgical treatment in extremely elderly patients with biliary diseases is safe and feasible. The key is to actively treat preoperative coexisting diseases, strictly adhere to surgical indications, reasonably select surgical procedures, precisely perform the operation, closely monitor and control intraoperative emergencies, timely prevent and treat postoperative complications, so as to improve the perioperative safety of extremely elderly patients with biliary diseases.