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Matthews K, Heravi S, Morgan P, Page N, Shepherd J, Sivarajasingam V. Alcohol prices, the April effect, and the environment, in violence-related injury in England and Wales. THE EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF HEALTH ECONOMICS : HEPAC : HEALTH ECONOMICS IN PREVENTION AND CARE 2024; 25:237-255. [PMID: 36988743 PMCID: PMC10052256 DOI: 10.1007/s10198-023-01583-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2022] [Accepted: 03/13/2023] [Indexed: 06/19/2023]
Abstract
Violent injury varies widely across England and Wales as does the price of alcohol. While the links between alcohol consumption and violence are well established in the medical and epidemiological literature, a causal link is questionable. This paper cuts through the causative argument by reporting a link between the general price of alcohol and violence-related injury across the economic regions of England and Wales. It examines the influence of the real price of alcohol and identifies an 'April effect' that coincides with the annual uprating of alcohol prices for excise duties, on violence-related injuries recorded at Emergency Department attendance. The data are monthly frequency of violent injury rates covering the period 2005-2014 across the economic regions. The principal finding is that a one-way relationship between the real price of alcohol and violent injury is established, and tax policy can be used to reduce the incidence of violent injury and the associated health costs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kent Matthews
- Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, Colum Drive, Cardiff, CF10 3EU, UK.
- Nottingham University Business School China, University of Nottingham Ningbo China, 199 Taikang East Road, Ningbo, 315100, China.
| | - Saeed Heravi
- Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, Colum Drive, Cardiff, CF10 3EU, UK
| | - Peter Morgan
- Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, Colum Drive, Cardiff, CF10 3EU, UK
| | - Nicholas Page
- School of Social Sciences, Cardiff University, Spark, Maindy Road, Cardiff, CF24 4HQ, UK
| | - Jonathan Shepherd
- School of Dentistry, Cardiff University, University Hospital Wales, Heath Park, Cardiff, CF14 4XY, UK
| | - Vaseekaran Sivarajasingam
- School of Dentistry, Cardiff University, University Hospital Wales, Heath Park, Cardiff, CF14 4XY, UK
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Hodgkinson T, Corcoran J, Andresen MA. Violent assault geographies in northeastern Australia. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0282522. [PMID: 36862662 PMCID: PMC9980754 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0282522] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2022] [Accepted: 02/17/2023] [Indexed: 03/03/2023] Open
Abstract
As climate change produces more extreme weather, it is increasingly important to understand the impacts of these changes on social behaviour. The relationship between weather and crime has been studied across numerous contexts. However, few studies examine the correlation between weather and violence in southern, non-temperate climates. In addition, the literature lacks longitudinal research that controls for international changes in crime trends. In this study, we examine over 12 years of assault-related incidents in the state of Queensland, Australia. Controlling for deviations in trend for temperature and rainfall, we explore the relationship between violent crime and weather across Köppen climate classifications. Findings provide important insight into the impact of weather on violence across temperate, tropical, and arid climate regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tarah Hodgkinson
- Department of Criminology, Wilfrid Laurier University, Brantford, Ontario, Canada
| | - Jonathan Corcoran
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Martin A. Andresen
- School of Criminology, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
- * E-mail:
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Lee H, Myung W, Kim H, Lee EM, Kim H. Association between ambient temperature and injury by intentions and mechanisms: A case-crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 746:141261. [PMID: 32745866 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141261] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2020] [Revised: 07/13/2020] [Accepted: 07/24/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Although injury is a leading cause of death worldwide, the association between ambient temperature and injury has received little research attention compared to the association of temperature with mortality and morbidity from non-external causes. With current climate change and increases in weather extremes, assessing the association between temperature and injury is important for determining public health priorities. Therefore, the present study examined the association between ambient temperature and injury risk with a focus on the intentions and mechanisms of injury. Using the national emergency database, we identified a total of 703,503 injured patients who had visited emergency departments in Seoul, South Korea from 2008 to 2016. We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study using a conditional Poisson regression model, and applied a distributed lag nonlinear model to explore possible nonlinear and delayed effects of daily mean temperature on injury risk. Injury risk was significantly associated with ambient temperature, and temperature-injury association curves markedly differed with respect to intentions and mechanisms of injury. Although unintentional injuries increased significantly at both high and low temperatures, intentional injuries - including self-harm and assault - significantly increased only at high temperatures. The mechanism-specific analyses showed that injuries caused by traffic accidents and burns significantly increased at both high and low temperatures. However, injuries caused by all other mechanisms (i.e., fall, blunt object, machinery, penetration, and poisoning) significantly increased only at high temperatures, while injury due to slipping increased at low temperatures. Our study provides evidence that ambient temperature is associated with risk of injury, and this association differs depending on the intentions and mechanisms of injury. Overall, our findings help foster a more comprehensive understanding of the association between temperature and injury that can be used to establish appropriate public health policies and targeted interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hyewon Lee
- Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
| | - Woojae Myung
- Department of Neuropsychiatry, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Bundang-gu, Seongnam, Republic of Korea
| | - Ho Kim
- Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Eun-Mi Lee
- Department of Health Science, Dongduk Women's University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
| | - Hyekyeong Kim
- Department of Health Convergence, College of Science and Industry Convergence, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
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Bakhsh K, Abbas K, Hassan S, Yasin MA, Ali R, Ahmad N, Chattha MWA. Climate change-induced human conflicts and economic costs in Pakistani Punjab. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2020; 27:24299-24311. [PMID: 32304066 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-020-08607-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2019] [Accepted: 03/26/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Understanding causes of interpersonal conflicts, related costs, and the effects on investment in agriculture are important concerns of social sciences. The present study was designed to explore these aspects in relation to climate change, since rising temperature and precipitation are considered crucial causal factors in fueling interpersonal conflicts. The study used cross-sectional data collected from rural farm households from a large district of Pakistani Punjab. Cost of conflicts was estimated using standard economic methods whereas factors affecting interpersonal conflicts were estimated through employing logit model. The study found that interpersonal conflicts cost US$135 per month for following the proceedings of the conflicts filed in the court. Households involved in conflicts spent significantly very few resources in purchasing farm inputs which in turn declined productivity of maize (28%) and sugarcane (19%). Warm temperature, precipitation, and windstorm were perceived by households as causal factors for interpersonal conflicts. Socioeconomic characteristics namely, farm size, livestock, family size, and high monthly income of household, were significantly associated with interpersonal conflicts. The study concludes important policy implications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Khuda Bakhsh
- Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus, Vehari, Pakistan.
| | - Karim Abbas
- Institute of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan
| | - Sarfraz Hassan
- Institute of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Asim Yasin
- Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus, Vehari, Pakistan
| | - Rafaqet Ali
- Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus, Vehari, Pakistan
| | - Najid Ahmad
- School of Business, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Hunan, China
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Beard E, Marsden J, Brown J, Tombor I, Stapleton J, Michie S, West R. Understanding and using time series analyses in addiction research. Addiction 2019; 114:1866-1884. [PMID: 31058392 DOI: 10.1111/add.14643] [Citation(s) in RCA: 89] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/02/2018] [Revised: 08/17/2018] [Accepted: 04/29/2019] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Time series analyses are statistical methods used to assess trends in repeated measurements taken at regular intervals and their associations with other trends or events, taking account of the temporal structure of such data. Addiction research often involves assessing associations between trends in target variables (e.g. population cigarette smoking prevalence) and predictor variables (e.g. average price of a cigarette), known as a multiple time series design, or interventions or events (e.g. introduction of an indoor smoking ban), known as an interrupted time series design. There are many analytical tools available, each with its own strengths and limitations. This paper provides addiction researchers with an overview of many of the methods available (GLM, GLMM, GLS, GAMM, ARIMA, ARIMAX, VAR, SVAR, VECM) and guidance on when and how they should be used, sample size det ermination, reporting and interpretation. The aim is to provide increased clarity for researchers proposing to undertake these analyses concerning what is likely to be acceptable for publication in journals such as Addiction. Given the large number of choices that need to be made when setting up time series models, the guidance emphasizes the importance of pre-registering hypotheses and analysis plans before the analyses are undertaken.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emma Beard
- Research Department of Clinical, Educational and Health Psychology, University College London, London, UK
- Department of Behavioural Science and Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - John Marsden
- Addictions Department, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, UK
| | - Jamie Brown
- Research Department of Clinical, Educational and Health Psychology, University College London, London, UK
- Department of Behavioural Science and Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Ildiko Tombor
- Department of Behavioural Science and Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - John Stapleton
- Research Department of Clinical, Educational and Health Psychology, University College London, London, UK
- Addictions Department, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, UK
| | - Susan Michie
- Research Department of Clinical, Educational and Health Psychology, University College London, London, UK
| | - Robert West
- Department of Behavioural Science and Health, University College London, London, UK
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Sanz-Barbero B, Linares C, Vives-Cases C, González JL, López-Ossorio JJ, Díaz J. Heat wave and the risk of intimate partner violence. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018; 644:413-419. [PMID: 29981991 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.368] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2018] [Revised: 06/28/2018] [Accepted: 06/29/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND A high number of women report experiencing intimate partner violence (IPV). It is of utmost importance to identify possible factors that precipitate IPV and incorporate them into police protocols for evaluating IPV risk. Scientific evidence shows that environmental temperature is associated with a risk of violent behavior. OBJECTIVES To analyze the effect and impact of heat waves on the risk of IPV. METHODS Ecological, longitudinal time series study. The dependent variables are: intimate partner femicides (IPF), reports of IPV and 016 IPV telephone help line calls in the Community of Madrid from 05/01 to 09/30 in the years 2008-2016. The principal independent variable is the daily maximum temperature in Celsius (Tmax) above the heat wave threshold of 34 °C. A binomial negative regression was used for calls and reports and a Poisson regression was used for IPF. The attributable risk among those exposed (AR%) and the number of attributable cases was calculated for each variable. RESULTS The risk of IPF increased three days after the heat wave, [RR(IC95%):1.40(1.00-1.97)], police reports of IPV increased one day after [RR (IC95%):1.02(1.00-1.03) and help line calls increased five days after [RR(IC95%):1.01(1.00-1.03)]. The AR% was 28.8% (IC95%: 0.3%-49.2%) for IPF, 1.7% (IC95%:0.3%-3.1%) for police reports and 1.43% (IC95:0.1%;2.8%) for help line calls. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that heat waves are associated with an increase in IPV. The effect of an increase in IPV is delayed in time, with differences according to the violence indicators analyzed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Belén Sanz-Barbero
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain; CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Spain
| | - Cristina Linares
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - Carmen Vives-Cases
- CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Spain; Public Health Research Group, Department of Community Nursing, Preventive Medicine and Public Health and History of Science, Alicante University, Alicante, Spain
| | | | | | - Julio Díaz
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain.
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Sanz-Barbero B, Linares C, Vives-Cases C, González JL, López-Ossorio JJ, Díaz J. Intimate partner violence in Madrid: a time series analysis (2008–2016). Ann Epidemiol 2018; 28:635-640. [DOI: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2018.05.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2018] [Revised: 05/23/2018] [Accepted: 05/24/2018] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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Gao S. Letter to the editor concerning "Is weather related to the number of assaults seen at emergency departments?". Injury 2017; 48:2890. [PMID: 29031823 DOI: 10.1016/j.injury.2017.10.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2017] [Accepted: 10/07/2017] [Indexed: 02/02/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Shiyao Gao
- Epidemiology Data Center, University of Pittsburgh, 4420 Bayard Street, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15260, USA.
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