The Malawi trauma score: A model for predicting trauma-associated mortality in a resource-poor setting

New Trauma Score versus Kampala Trauma Score II in predicting mortality following road traffic crash: a prospective multi-center cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Mortality due to injuries disproportionately impact low income countries. Knowledge of who is at risk of poor outcomes is critical to guide resource allocation and prioritization of severely injured. Kampala Trauma Score (KTS), developed in 1996 and last modified in 2002 as KTS II, is still widely being used to predict injury outcomes in resource-limited settings with no further revisions in the past two decades, despite ongoing criticism of some of its parameters. The New Trauma Score (NTS), a recent development in 2017, has shown potential in mortality prediction, but a dearth of evidence exist regarding its performance in the African population.

OBJECTIVES

To compare NTS to the modified Kampala Trauma Score (KTS II) in the prediction of 30-day mortality, and injury severity amongst patients sustaining road traffic crashes in Ugandan low-resource settings.

METHODS

Multi-center prospective cohort study of patients aged 15 years and above. Of the 194 participants, 85.1% were males with a mean age of 31.7 years. NTS and KTS II were determined for each participant within 30-minutes of admission and followed-up for 30 days to determine their injury outcomes. The sensitivity, specificity, and area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) for predicting mortality were compared between the two trauma scores using SPSS version 22. Ethical clearance: Research and Ethics Committee of Kampala International University Western Campus (Ref No: KIU-2022-125).

RESULTS

The injury severity classifications based on NTS vs. KTS II were mild (55.7% vs. 25.8%), moderate (29.9% vs. 30.4%), and severe (14.4% vs. 43.8%). The mortality rates for each injury severity category based on NTS vs. KTS II were mild (0.9% v 0%), moderate (20.7% vs. 5.1%), and severe (50% vs. 28.2%). The AUC was 0.87 for NTS (95% CI 0.808-0.931) vs. 0.86 (95% CI 0.794-0.919) for KTS II respectively. The sensitivity of NTS vs. KTS II in predicting mortality was 92.6% (95% CI: 88.9-96.3) vs. 70.4% (95% CI: 63.0-77.8) while the specificity was 70.7% (95% CI: 64.2-77.2) vs. 78.4% (95% CI: 72.1-84.7) at cut off points of 17 for NTS and 6 for KTS II respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

NTS was more sensitive but its specificity for purposes of 30-day mortality prediction was lower compared to KTS II. Thus, in low-resourced trauma environment where time constraints and pulse oximeters are of concern, KTS II remains superior to NTS.

The burden of long bone fracture and health system response in Malawi: A scoping review

OBJECTIVES

Fractures pose serious health and socioeconomic consequences for individuals, their families, and societies more broadly. In many low-resource settings, case fatality and long-term sequelae after a fracture remain high due to individual- and system-level barriers affecting timely access to care. This scoping review explored the burden of fractures in Malawi using long bone fracture (LBF) as a case study by examining the epidemiology of these injuries, their consequences, and the accessibility of quality healthcare. Our aim is to not only describe the scale of the issue but to identify specific interventions that can help address the challenges faced in settings with limited resources and healthcare budgets.

METHODS

A scoping review methodology was adopted with a narrative synthesis of results. We searched five databases to identify relevant literature and applied the "Three Delays" model and the WHO's Building Blocks Framework to analyse findings on the accessibility of fracture care.

RESULTS

Fractures most often occurred among young males, with falls being the leading cause, constituting between 5 and 35 % of the total burden of injuries. Fractures were typically managed without surgery despite consistent local evidence showing surgical treatment was superior to conservative management in terms of length of hospital stay and bone healing. Poor functional, economic, and social outcomes were noted in fracture patients, especially after conservative treatment. A lack of trust in the health system, financial barriers, poor transport, and road infrastructure, and interfacility transfers were identified as barriers to care-seeking. Factors challenging the provision of appropriate care included governance issues, poor health infrastructure, financial constraints, and shortage of supplies and human resources.

CONCLUSIONS

To the best of our knowledge, this review represents the first comprehensive examination of the state of LBF and the health system's response in Malawi. The findings underscore the pressing need for a national trauma registry to accurately determine the actual burden of injuries and support a tailored approach to fracture care in Malawi. It is further evident that the health system in Malawi must be strengthen across all six building blocks to address obstacles to equitable access to high-quality fracture care.

Access to quality care after injury in Northern Malawi: results of a household survey

BACKGROUND

Most injury care research in low-income contexts such as Malawi is facility centric. Community-derived data is needed to better understand actual injury incidence, health system utilisation and barriers to seeking care following injury.

METHODS

We administered a household survey to 2200 households in Karonga, Malawi. The primary outcome was injury incidence, with non-fatal injuries classified as major or minor (> 30 or 1-29 disability days respectively). Those seeking medical treatment were asked about time delays to seeking, reaching and receiving care at a facility, where they sought care, and whether they attended a second facility. We performed analysis for associations between injury severity and whether the patient sought care, stayed overnight in a facility, attended a second facility, or received care within 1 or 2 h. The reason for those not seeking care was asked.

RESULTS

Most households (82.7%) completed the survey, with 29.2% reporting an injury. Overall, 611 non-fatal and four fatal injuries were reported from 531 households: an incidence of 6900 per 100,000. Major injuries accounted for 26.6%. Three quarters, 76.1% (465/611), sought medical attention. Almost all, 96.3% (448/465), seeking care attended a primary facility first. Only 29.7% (138/465), attended a second place of care. Only 32.0% (142/444), received care within one hour. A further 19.1% (85/444) received care within 2 h. Major injury was associated with being more likely to have; sought care (94.4% vs 69.8% p < 0.001), stayed overnight at a facility (22.9% vs 15.4% P = 0.047), attended a second place of care (50.3% vs 19.9%, P < 0.001). For those not seeking care the most important reason was the injury not being serious enough for 52.1% (74/142), followed by transport difficulties 13.4% (19/142) and financial costs 5.6% (8/142).

CONCLUSION

Injuries in Northern Malawi are substantial. Community-derived details are necessary to fully understand injury burden and barriers to seeking and reaching care.

The Bidirectionality of Global Surgical Research: The Utility of the Malawi Trauma Score in the United States Trauma Population

INTRODUCTION

Trauma scoring systems provide valuable risk stratification of injured patients. Trauma scoring systems developed in resource-limited settings, such as the Malawi Trauma Score (MTS), are based on readily available clinical information. This study sought to test the performance of the MTS in a United States trauma population.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We analyzed the United States National Trauma Data Bank during 2017-2020. MTS uses alertness score: alert, responds to verbal or painful stimuli, or unresponsive (AVPU), age, sex, presence of a radial pulse, and primary anatomic injury location. MTS and an age-adjusted version reflective of the US age distribution, was evaluated for its performance in predicting crude mortality in the National Trauma Data Bank using receiver operating characteristic analysis. We utilized logistic regression to model the odds ratio of death at a particular MTS cutoff.

RESULTS

A total of 3,833,929 patients were included. The mean age was 49.3 y (sandard deviation 24.4), with a male preponderance (61.1%). Crude mortality was 3.4% (n = 131,452/3,833,929). The area under the curve for the MTS in predicting mortality was 0.87 (95% CI 0.87, 0.88). The area under the curve for a cutoff of 15 was 0.83 (95% CI 0.83, 0.83). An MTS of 15 higher had an odds ratio of death of 46.5 (95% CI 45.9, 47.1), compared to those with a score of 14 or lower.

CONCLUSIONS

MTS has excellent performance as a predictor of mortality in a US trauma population. MTS is simple to calculate and can be estimated in the prehospital setting or the emergency department. Consequently, it may have utility as a triage tool in both high-income trauma systems and resource-limited settings.

Characteristics and outcomes of patient presentations to the emergency department via police: A scoping review

BACKGROUND

As emergency department (ED) presentations continue to rise, understanding the complexities of vulnerable populations such as people brought in by police (BIBP) is crucial. This review aimed to map and describe the research about people BIBP to the ED.

DESIGN AND METHOD

A scoping review, guided by the Joanna Briggs Institute process, was undertaken. The databases CINAHL, Embase and PubMed were searched between November 2017 and July 2022. The Patterns, Advances, Gaps, Evidence for practice, Research recommendations (PAGER) framework was used to guide the analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 21 studies were included in the review, originating mainly from westernised countries. Examination of patterns across studies revealed four themes: routinely collected data is used to describe people BIBP to the ED; a focus on mental health care; the relationship between care delivery and outcomes; and the role of police in providing emergency care.

CONCLUSION

There is some understanding of the demographic characteristics, clinical characteristics, and outcomes of people BIBP to the ED. Knowledge gaps surrounding sociodemographic factors, prehospital and ED care delivery for people BIBP require further investigation to optimise outcomes for this vulnerable cohort of presenters.

Fall-Related Injuries in Malawi: Outcomes and Trends Over Time

BACKGROUND

Fall-related injury (FRI) is a leading cause of injuries worldwide. Data on injury patterns and trends over time are lacking in resource-limited settings.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of FRI at Kamuzu Central Hospital in Malawi from 2009 to 2021. Outcomes were compared between patients presenting with FRI and those with other injury mechanisms. Bivariate and multivariate regressions were used to determine predictors of presentation following falls and mortality. We also analyzed time trends.

RESULTS

A total of 166,047 patients were included, of which 41,695 were patients presenting after falls (25.7%). Most FRI patients were between 5 and 45 (67.2%) and male (66.9%). Most falls occurred at home (67.3%) and resulted in extremity injuries (51.6%). The predicted probability of hospital presentation after falling is highest for children ≤  5 years and adults >  60 years and decreases over time. On multivariate analysis, patients between 5 and 15 [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.63-1.77] and > 60 (AOR 1.14, 95% CI 1.07-1.22) and women (AOR 1.13, 95% CI 1.10-1.16) are more likely to present with FRI. Compared to patients with non-FRI, those with FRI were more likely to have been injured at school (AOR 2.16, 95% CI 2.01-2.32) and during sports and recreation (AOR 4.53, 95% CI 4.24-4.85).

CONCLUSION

FRI is the most common injury presentation after motor vehicle injury in this low-resource setting. This study provides essential information about FRI in Malawi over time. Our findings can help inform resource allocation and injury prevention initiatives.

Clinical emergency care quality indicators in Africa: a scoping review and data summary

OBJECTIVES

Emergency care services are rapidly expanding in Africa; however, development must focus on quality. The African Federation of Emergency Medicine consensus conference (AFEM-CC)-based quality indicators were published in 2018. This study sought to increase knowledge of quality through identifying all publications from Africa containing data relevant to the AFEM-CC process clinical and outcome quality indicators.

DESIGN

We conducted searches for general quality of emergency care in Africa and for each of 28 AFEM-CC process clinical and five outcome clinical quality indicators individually in the medical and grey literature.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed (1964-2 January 2022), Embase (1947-2 January 2022) and CINAHL (1982-3 January 2022) and various forms of grey literature were queried.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Studies published in English, addressing the African emergency care population as a whole or large subsegment of this population (eg, trauma, paediatrics), and matching AFEM-CC process quality indicator parameters exactly were included. Studies with similar, but not exact match, data were collected separately as 'AFEM-CC quality indicators near match'.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Document screening was done in duplicate by two authors, using Covidence, and conflicts were adjudicated by a third. Simple descriptive statistics were calculated.

RESULTS

One thousand three hundred and fourteen documents were reviewed, 314 in full text. 41 studies met a priori criteria and were included, yielding 59 unique quality indicator data points. Documentation and assessment quality indicators accounted for 64% of data points identified, clinical care for 25% and outcomes for 10%. An additional 53 'AFEM-CC quality indicators near match' publications were identified (38 new publications and 15 previously identified studies that contained additional 'near match' data), yielding 87 data points.

CONCLUSIONS

Data relevant to African emergency care facility-based quality indicators are highly limited. Future publications on emergency care in Africa should be aware of, and conform with, AFEM-CC quality indicators to strengthen understanding of quality.

Tri-modal Distribution of Trauma Deaths in a Resource-Limited Setting: Perception Versus Reality

BACKGROUND

Advances in trauma care in high-income countries have significantly reduced late deaths following trauma, challenging the classical trimodal pattern of trauma-associated mortality. While studies from low and middle-income countries have demonstrated that the trimodal pattern is still occurring in many regions, there is a lack of data from sub-Saharan Africa evaluating the temporal epidemiology of trauma deaths.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of the trauma registry at Kamuzu Central Hospital in Lilongwe, Malawi, including all injured patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) from 2009 to 2021. Patients were compared based on timing of death relative to time of injury. We then used a modified Poisson regression model to identify adjusted predictors for early mortality compared to late mortality.

RESULTS

Crude mortality of patients presenting to the ED in the study period was 2.4% (n = 4,096/165,324). Most patients experienced a pre-hospital death (n = 2,330, 56.9%), followed by death in the ED (n = 619, 15.1%). Early death (pre-hospital or ED) was associated with transportation by police (RR1.52, 95% CI 1.38, 1.68) or private vehicle (RR1.20, 95% CI 1.07, 1.31), vehicle-related trauma (RR1.10, 95% CI 1.05, 1.14), and penetrating injury (RR1.11, 95% CI 1.04, 1.19). Ambulance transportation was associated with a 40% decrease in the risk of early death.

CONCLUSIONS

At a busy tertiary trauma center in Malawi, most trauma-associated deaths occur within 48 h of injury, with most in the pre-hospital setting. To improve clinical outcomes for trauma patients in this environment, substantial investment in pre-hospital care is required through first-responder training and EMS infrastructure.

Malawi Trauma Score is Predictive of Mortality at a District Hospital: A Validation Study

BACKGROUND

Trauma scoring systems can identify patients who should be transferred to referral hospitals, but their utility in LMICs is often limited. The Malawi Trauma Score (MTS) reliably predicts mortality at referral hospitals but has not been studied at district hospitals. We sought to validate the MTS at a Malawi district hospital and evaluate whether MTS is predictive of transfer to a referral hospital.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study using trauma registry data from Salima District Hospital (SDH) from 2017 to 2021. We excluded patients brought in dead, discharged from the Casualty Department, or missing data needed to calculate MTS. We used logistic regression modeling to study the relationship between MTS and mortality at SDH and between MTS and transfer to a referral hospital. We used receiver operating characteristic analysis to validate the MTS as a predictor of mortality.

RESULTS

We included 2196 patients (84.3% discharged, 12.7% transferred, 3.0% died). These groups had similar ages, sex, and admission vitals. Mean (SD) MTS was 7.9(3.0) among discharged patients, 8.4(3.9) among transferred patients, and 14.2(8.0) among patients who died (p < 0.001). Higher MTS was associated with increased odds of mortality at SDH (OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.14-1.29, p < 0.001) but was not related to transfer. ROC area for mortality was 0.73 (95% CI 0.65-0.80).

CONCLUSIONS

MTS is predictive of district hospital mortality but not inter-facility transfer. We suggest that MTS be used to identify patients with severe trauma who are most likely to benefit from transfer to a referral hospital.

Direct Transfer to a Tertiary Care Hospital After Traumatic Injury is Associated with a Survival Benefit in a Resource-Limited Setting

INTRODUCTION

Trauma is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and patients in low- and middle-income countries are disproportionately affected. Organized trauma systems, including appropriate transfer to a higher level of care, improve trauma outcomes. We sought to evaluate the relationship between transfer status and trauma mortality in Malawi.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of trauma patients admitted to Kamuzu Central Hospital (KCH), a trauma center in Lilongwe, Malawi, between January 1, 2013, and May 30, 2018. Transfer status was categorized as direct if a patient arrives at KCH from the injury scene and indirect if a patient comes to KCH from another health care facility. We used logistic regression modeling to evaluate the relationship between transfer status and in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 8369 patients were included in the study. The mean age was 34.6 years (SD 15.8), and 81% of patients were male. The most common mechanism of injury was motor vehicle collision. Injury severity did not significantly differ between the two groups. Crude mortality was 4.8% for indirect and 2.6% for direct transfers. After adjusting for relevant covariates, odds ratio of mortality was 2.12 (1.49-3.02, p < 0.001) for indirect versus direct transfers.

CONCLUSION

Trauma patients indirectly transferred to a trauma center have nearly double the risk of mortality compared to direct transfers. Trauma outcome improvement efforts must focus on strengthening prehospital care, improving district hospital capacity, and developing protocols for early assessment, treatment, and transfer of trauma patients to a trauma center.

Characteristics and outcomes following motorized and non-motorized vehicular trauma in a resource-limited setting

INTRODUCTION

Despite the ubiquity of motorized vehicular transport, non-motorized transportation continues to be common in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of trauma patients presenting to Kamuzu Central Hospital in Malawi from February 2008 to May 2018. Demographic and clinical variables including injury characteristics and outcomes were collected. We performed bivariate and multivariate logistic regression to determine predictors of mortality following non-motorized vehicular trauma.

RESULTS

This study included 36,412 patients involved in vehicular road injuries. Patients in the non-motorized group had a preponderance of men (84% versus 73%, p<0.01). The proportion of patients with Glasgow Coma Scale > 8 was slightly higher in the non-motorized group (99% versus 98%, p<0.01), though injury severity did not differ significantly between the two groups. A higher proportion in the motorized group had the most severe injury of contusions and abrasions (56% versus 50%, p<0.01). In contrast, the non-motorized group had a higher proportion of orthopedic injuries (24% versus 16%, p<0.01). The crude mortality rate was 4.51% and 2.15% in the motorized and non-motorized groups, respectively. After controlling for demographic factors and injury severity, the incidence rate ratio of mortality did not differ significantly between motorized and non-motorized trauma groups (IRR 0.91, p=0.35).

CONCLUSIONS

Non-motorized vehicular trauma remains a significant proportion of morbidity and mortality resulting from road traffic injuries. The injury severity and incidence rate ratio of mortality did not differ between motorized and non-motorized trauma groups. Health care providers should not underestimate the severity of injuries from non-motorized trauma.

Elderly trauma mortality in a resource-limited setting: A benchmark for process improvement

INTRODUCTION

As life expectancy improves globally, the burden of elderly trauma continues to increase. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to have the most rapid growth in its elderly demographic. Consequently, we sought to examine the trends in characteristics and outcomes of elderly trauma in a tertiary care hospital in Malawi.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of adult patients in the trauma registry at Kamuzu Central Hospital (KCH) in Lilongwe, Malawi from 2011-2017. Patients were categorized into elderly (≥ 65 years) and non-elderly (18-64 years). Bivariate analysis compared the characteristics and outcomes of elderly vs. non-elderly patients. The elderly population was then examined over the study period. Poisson regression modeling was used to determine the risk of mortality among elderly patients over time.

RESULTS

Of 63,699 adult trauma patients, 1,925 (3.0%) were aged ≥ 65 years. Among the elderly, the most common mechanism of injury was falls (n = 725 [37.7%]) whereas vehicle or bike collisions were more common in the non-elderly (n = 15,967 [25.9%]). Fractures and dislocations were more prevalent in the elderly (n = 808 [42.0%] vs. 9,133 [14.8%], p < 0.001). In-hospital crude mortality for the elderly was double the non-elderly group (4.8% vs. 2.4%, p < 0.001). Elderly transfers, surgeries, and length of stay significantly increased over the study period but mortality remained relatively unchanged. When adjusted for injury severity and transfer status, there was no significant difference in risk of in-hospital mortality over time.

CONCLUSION

At KCH, the proportion of elderly trauma patients is slowly increasing. Although healthcare resource utilization has increased over time, the overall trend in mortality has not improved. As the quality of care for the most vulnerable populations is a benchmark for the success of a trauma program, further work is needed to improve the trend in outcomes of the elderly trauma population in Malawi.

Self-inflicted injuries: The intersection of mental health and traumatic injury in Malawi

Self-inflicted injury, the most common form of intentional injury, disproportionately affects low-income countries, but is poorly described in this setting. This retrospective review of the 2008-2018 trauma registry at a referral hospital in Malawi included all victims of intentional injury ≥10 years. Self-inflicted injuries were compared to assaults. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Common mechanisms of self-inflicted injuries were fall from height, poisoning, and penetrating injury. In-hospital mortality from self-inflicted injury was 8.8% vs. 1.9% for assault. Those who died from self-inflicted injury were more often older (median 34 vs. 26 years, p < 0.001), male (91.9% vs. 67.8%, p < 0.001), unemployed (32.8% vs. 6.4%, p < 0.001), and most commonly died by hanging (60%). The odds of in-hospital mortality after self-inflicted injury was four times assault (OR 4.0 [95% CI 1.4-11.5], p = 0.01). The trauma registry proved useful for describing self-inflicted injury in this setting.

In-home interpersonal violence: Sex based prevalence and outcomes

Introduction

There is a shortage of data on intimate partner and interpersonal violence in sub-Saharan Africa. We, therefore, sought to characterize patterns of sex-based risk of in-home interpersonal violence in Malawi.

Methods

We performed a retrospective analysis of the Kamuzu Central Hospital Trauma Registry data from 2009 to 2017 on adult patients presenting the emergency room following assault. Data variables collected include basic demographics, injury characteristics, and outcomes. We performed a bivariate analysis for covariates based on sex and Poisson regression analysis to estimate the risk of domestic violence and sex-based mortality.

Results

The in-home assault interpersonal violence was 37.1% (n = 10,854) of the total assault cohort and 37.4% (n = 4056) were female. Women were more likely to be assaulted at home (n = 4065, 69.6%)compared to men. The overall prevalence of in-home interpersonal violence over eight years was 9.09%, with the prevalence in men and women being 7.85 and 12.38%, respectively. Women injured following in-home interpersonal violence assaults were less severely injured. Women were more likely to be injured following slaps, punches, or kicks (n = 950, 41.2%) and men were more likely to be injured by an object, 41.0% with a blunt object (n = 1658) and 37.9% by a knife or another sharp object (n = 1532). For patients experiencing in-home interpersonal violence, overall mortality is 1.8% and 0.5% for men and women, respectively (p < 0.001). After controlling for covariates, the relative risk for In-home interpersonal violence was 2.25 (p < 0.001) times higher for women. Still, men had a 3.3 times risk of mortality following in-home interpersonal violence (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

Interpersonal violence is a global problem. In Malawi, women are more likely to be victims of in-home interpersonal violence. However, men are more likely to die following in-home interpersonal violence. Prevalence of in-home interpersonal violence is likely an underestimation.

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In-home interpersonal violence is a global phenomenon

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There is a higher incidence on women than in men at 12.38 and 7.85 %, respectively

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We show a higher mortality following in home interpersonal violence in men.

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The prevalence of in home interpersonal violence is likely underestimated.

Secondary Overtriage of Trauma Patients to a Central Hospital in Malawi

INTRODUCTION

Secondary overtriage (OT) is the unnecessary transfer of injured patients between facilities. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), which shoulder the greatest burden of trauma globally, the impact of wasted resources on an overburdened system is high. This study determined the rate and associated characteristics of OT at a Malawian central hospital.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from January 2012 through July 2017 was performed at Kamuzu Central Hospital (KCH) in Lilongwe, Malawi. Patients were considered OT if they were discharged alive within 48 h without undergoing a procedure, and were not severely injured or in shock on arrival. Factors evaluated for association with OT included patient demographics, injury characteristics, and transferring facility information.

RESULTS

Of 80,915 KCH trauma patients, 15,422 (19.1%) transferred from another facility. Of these, 8703 (56.2%) were OT. OT patients were younger (median 15, IQR: 6-31 versus median 26, IQR: 11-38, p < 0.001). Patients with primary extremity injury (5308, 59.9%) were overtriaged more than those with head injury (1991, 51.8%) or torso trauma (1349, 50.8%), p < 0.001. The OT rate was lower at night (18.9% v 28.7%, p < 0.001) and similar on weekends (20.4% v 21.8%, p = 0.03). OT was highest for penetrating wounds, bites, and falls; burns were the lowest. In multivariable modeling, risk of OT was greatest for burns and soft tissue injuries.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of trauma patients who transfer to KCH are overtriaged. Implementation of transfer criteria, trauma protocols, and interhospital communication can mitigate the strain of OT in resource-limited settings.

Diurnal variation in trauma mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: A proxy for health care system maturity

BACKGROUND

Globally, traumatic injury is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income countries. However, trauma centers in these environments have limited resources to manage complex trauma with minimal staffing and diagnostic tools. These limitations may be exacerbated at night. We hypothesized that there is an increase in trauma-associated mortality for patients presenting during nighttime hours.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of all patients recorded in the Kamuzu Central Hospital trauma registry in Lilongwe, Malawi from January 2012 through December 2016. Nighttime was defined as 18:00 until 5:59. Patients brought in dead were excluded. A modified Poisson regression model was used to calculate the relationship between presentation at night and mortality, adjusted for significant confounders.

RESULTS

74,500 patients were included. During the day, crude mortality was 0.8% compared to 1.4% at night (p < 0.001). The risk ratio of mortality following night time presentation compared to day was 1.90 (95% CI 1.48, 2.42) when adjusted for injury severity, assessed by the Malawi Trauma Score (MTS), and transfer status. When stratified by the year of traumatic injury, the risk ratio of death decreased each year from 2012-2014 but increased in 2015. There was no difference in 2016.

CONCLUSIONS

We report the first description of diurnal variation in trauma-associated mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Injured patients who presented at night had nearly twice the adjusted risk ratio of death compared to patients that presented during the daytime although there were yearly differences. Diurnal variation in trauma-associated mortality is a simple but important indicator of the maturity of a trauma system and should be tracked for health care system improvement.