Prognostic value of nomogram based on pre-treatment inflammatory markers in patients with pulmonary-only synchronous metastases from colorectal cancer

Development and validation of prognostic nomograms based on De Ritis ratio and clinicopathological features for patients with stage II/III colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Metabolic derangements and systemic inflammation are related to the progression of colorectal cancer (CRC) and the prognoses of these patients. The survival of stage II and III CRC patients existed considerable heterogeneity highlighting the urgent need for new prediction models. This study aimed to develop and validate prognostic nomograms based on preoperative serum liver enzyme as well as evaluate the clinical utility.

METHODS

A total of 4014 stage II/III primary CRC patients pathologically diagnosed from January 2007 to December 2013 were included in this study. These patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 2409) and a testing set (n = 1605). Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to select the independent factors for predicting overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) of stage II/III CRC patients. Next, nomograms were constructed and validated to predict the OS and DFS of individual CRC patients. The clinical utility of nomograms, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM), and the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) system was evaluated using time-dependent ROC and decision curve analyses.

RESULTS

Among seven preoperative serum liver enzyme markers, aspartate aminotransferase-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio (De Ritis ratio) was identified as an independent factor for predicting both OS and DFS of stage II/III CRC patients. The nomograms incorporated De Ritis ratio and significant clinicopathological features achieved good accuracy in terms of OS and DFS prediction, with C-index of 0.715 and 0.692, respectively. The calibration curve showed good agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation. The results of time-dependent ROC and decision curve analyses suggested that the nomograms had improved discrimination and greater clinical benefits compared with TNM and AJCC staging.

CONCLUSIONS

De Ritis ratio was an independent predictor in predicting both the OS and DFS of patients with stage II/III CRC. Nomograms based on De Ritis ratio and clinicopathological features showed better clinical utility, which is expected to help clinicians develop appropriate individual treatment strategies for patients with stage II /III CRC.

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and lactate dehydrogenase combined in predicting liver metastasis and prognosis of colorectal cancer

Background

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level are inflammatory markers related to tumor growth and metabolism. This study investigated the value of preoperative NLR, LDH and the combination of NLR and LDH (NLR-LDH) for predicting colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRLM) and tumor prognosis in the early stages of colorectal cancer (CRC).

Materials and methods

Three hundred patients undergoing CRC resection were included. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the correlation between CRLM time and inflammatory markers, and Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox regression analyses were used to estimate overall survival (OS). Forest plots were prepared based on the multivariate Cox analysis model and evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

Results

The NLR cut-off value was 2.071 according to the ROC curve. The multivariate analysis showed that the elevated LDH level and a high NLR-LDH level were independent predictors of synchronous CRLM and OS (p < 0.05). The combination of a high NLR and elevated LDH and NLR-LDH levels suggested a poor prognosis and a significantly shorter median survival time than a low NLR and low levels of LDH and NLR-LDH. The ROC curve analysis results illustrated that the predictive value of the NLR-LDH score for synchronous CRLM [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.623, p < 0.001] and OS (AUC = 0.614, p = 0.001) was superior to that of the NLR or LDH score used alone.

Conclusion

LDH and NLR-LDH are reliable, easy-to-use, independent biomarkers for predicting synchronous or metachronous CRLM and OS in CRC patients. The NLR is an important monitoring index for CRLM. Preoperative NLR, LDH and NLR-LDH may help to guide the use of therapeutic strategies and cancer surveillance.

The decreased platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio could predict a good prognosis in patients with oligometastatic colorectal cancer: a single-center cohort retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Inflammation markers have an important effect on tumor proliferation, invasion, and metastasis. Oligometastatic disease (OMD) is an intermediate state between widespread metastases and locally confined disease, where curative strategies may be effective for some patients. We aimed to explore the predictive value of inflammatory markers in patients with oligometastatic colorectal cancer (OMCC) and build a nomogram to predict the prognosis of these patients.

METHODS

Two hundred nine patients with OMCC were retrospectively collected in this study. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox regression analysis were used to estimate overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). A multivariate Cox analysis model was utilized to establish the nomogram. The concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) were established to verify the validity and accuracy of the prediction model.

RESULTS

According to the multivariate analysis, decreased platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) might independently improve OS in patients with OMCC (HR = 2.396, 95% CI 1.391-4.126, P = 0.002). Metastases of extra-regional lymph nodes indicated poor OS (HR = 2.472, 95% CI 1.247-4.903, P = 0.010). While the patients with early N stage had better OS (HR = 4.602, 95% CI 2.055-10.305, P = 0.001) and PFS (HR = 2.100, 95% CI 1.364-3.231, P = 0.007). Primary tumor resection (HR = 0.367, 95% CI 0.148-0.908, P = 0.030) and lower fibrinogen (HR = 2.254, 95% CI 1.246-4.078, P = 0.007) could significantly prolong the OS in patients with OMCC. PLR, metastases of extra-regional lymph nodes, N stage, primary tumor resection, and fibrinogen were used to make up the nomogram. The C-index and area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC in nomogram were 0.721 and 0.772 respectively for OS, showed good consistency between predictive probability of OS and actual survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Decreased PLR could predict a good prognosis in patients with OMCC. The nomogram including inflammatory factors and clinicopathological markers was credible and accurate to predict survivals in patients with OMCC.

Hematological Indices of Distant Metastases and Prognostic Nomogram in Gastro-Pancreatic and Biliary Tract Cancers

Purpose

The predictive value of inflammatory parameters as indicators of poor overall survival (OS) has been well studied in various tumors. This study aimed to explore the association of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), among other parameters in upper gastro-intestinal tract tumors with distant metastases and OS.

Patients and Methods

Retrospective analysis was done for 945 patients (males n= 539, 57.0%) with a median of 57 years (range 19–90 years) treated at King Hussein Cancer Center (KHCC) for gastric (n=501), pancreatic (n=355), and biliary (n=89) carcinoma. NLR, and other parameters were calculated at primary presentation, and the association between the parameters with baseline distant metastases and OS was studied. The optimal cutoff value of NLR was based on receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis. A prognostic nomogram was then constructed to explore how accurately the OS can be predicted.

Results

Patients with high baseline NLR (>3.2) had more distant metastases on presentation than patients with low NLR (≤3.2), (p-value <0.001). Age older than 57 years was associated with poor median OS (8.7 versus 10.6 months, p-value= 0.04). In addition, the location of the tumor as stomach versus biliary tract (Odds Ratio 0.443 95% CI 0.281–0.699), and pancreas versus biliary tract (Odds Ratio 1.193, 95% CI 0.749–1.902, p-value <0.001) proved to be significant. In multivariate analysis, age older than 57 years (p-value =0.0033, HR 0.792, 95% CI 0.678–0.925), location of the tumor (p-value <0.0001), presence of distant metastasis (p-value <0.0001, HR 2.063, 95% CI 1.760–2.419), and NLR (p-value <0.0001, HR 1.045, 95% CI 1.028–1.062) remained significant. Nomogram confirmed the significance of NLR as an independent prognostic factor for OS (HR = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.31–2.01, p-value <0.0001).

Conclusion

Our results suggested that high baseline inflammatory markers are associated with distant metastases and poor OS. The utilization of this association in management of cancer patients still warrants further investigation.