Reflections on the Predictability of Evolution: Toward a Conceptual Framework

The paradox of predictability provides a bridge between micro- and macroevolution

The relationship between the evolutionary dynamics observed in contemporary populations (microevolution) and evolution on timescales of millions of years (macroevolution) has been a topic of considerable debate. Historically, this debate centers on inconsistencies between microevolutionary processes and macroevolutionary patterns. Here, we characterize a striking exception: emerging evidence indicates that standing variation in contemporary populations and macroevolutionary rates of phenotypic divergence is often positively correlated. This apparent consistency between micro- and macroevolution is paradoxical because it contradicts our previous understanding of phenotypic evolution and is so far unexplained. Here, we explore the prospects for bridging evolutionary timescales through an examination of this "paradox of predictability." We begin by explaining why the divergence-variance correlation is a paradox, followed by data analysis to show that the correlation is a general phenomenon across a broad range of temporal scales, from a few generations to tens of millions of years. Then we review complementary approaches from quantitative genetics, comparative morphology, evo-devo, and paleontology to argue that they can help to address the paradox from the shared vantage point of recent work on evolvability. In conclusion, we recommend a methodological orientation that combines different kinds of short-term and long-term data using multiple analytical frameworks in an interdisciplinary research program. Such a program will increase our general understanding of how evolution works within and across timescales.

Pangenomes at the limits of evolution

Evolutionary pathways can be random or deterministic. In a recent article, Beavan et al. investigate this balance by applying machine learning models to microbial pangenomes. The presence of almost one-third of genes can be reliably inferred, indicating a surprising amount of predictable evolution.

Stability in gene expression and body-plan development leads to evolutionary conservation

BACKGROUND

Phenotypic evolution is mainly explained by selection for phenotypic variation arising from factors including mutation and environmental noise. Recent theoretical and experimental studies have suggested that phenotypes with greater developmental stability tend to have a constant phenotype and gene expression level within a particular genetic and environmental condition, and this positively correlates with stronger evolutionary conservation, even after the accumulation of genetic changes. This could reflect a novel mechanism that contributes to evolutionary conservation; however, it remains unclear whether developmental stability is the cause, or whether at least it contributes to their evolutionary conservation. Here, using Japanese medaka lines, we tested experimentally whether developmental stages and gene expression levels with greater stability led to their evolutionary conservation.

RESULTS

We first measured the stability of each gene expression level and developmental stage (defined here as the whole embryonic transcriptome) in the inbred F0 medaka population. We then measured their evolutionary conservation in the F3 generation by crossing the F0 line with the distantly related Japanese medaka line (Teradomori), followed by two rounds of intra-generational crossings. The results indicated that the genes and developmental stages that had smaller variations in the F0 generation showed lower diversity in the hybrid F3 generation, which implies a causal relationship between stability and evolutionary conservation.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that the stability in phenotypes, including the developmental stages and gene expression levels, leads to their evolutionary conservation; this most likely occurs due to their low potential to generate phenotypic variation. In addition, since the highly stable developmental stages match with the body-plan-establishment stage, it also implies that the developmental stability potentially contributed to the strict conservation of animal body plan.

The origin of genetic and metabolic systems: Evolutionary structuralinsights

DNA is derived from reverse transcription and its origin is related to reverse transcriptase, DNA polymerase and integrase. The gene structure originated from the evolution of the first RNA polymerase. Thus, an explanation of the origin of the genetic system must also explain the evolution of these enzymes. This paper proposes a polymer structure model, termed the stable complex evolution model, which explains the evolution of enzymes and functional molecules. Enzymes evolved their functions by forming locally tightly packed complexes with specific substrates. A metabolic reaction can therefore be considered to be the result of adaptive evolution in this way when a certain essential molecule is lacking in a cell. The evolution of the primitive genetic and metabolic systems was thus coordinated and synchronized. According to the stable complex model, almost all functional molecules establish binding affinity and specific recognition through complementary interactions, and functional molecules therefore have the nature of being auto-reactive. This is thermodynamically favorable and leads to functional duplication and self-organization. Therefore, it can be speculated that biological systems have a certain tendency to maintain functional stability or are influenced by an inherent selective power. The evolution of dormant bacteria may support this hypothesis, and inherent selectivity can be unified with natural selection at the molecular level.

Rate of environmental variation impacts the predictability in evolution

In the two last decades, we have improved our understanding of the adaptive evolution of natural populations under constant and stable environments. For instance, experimental methods from evolutionary biology have allowed us to explore the structure of fitness landscapes and survey how the landscape properties can constrain the adaptation process. However, understanding how environmental changes can affect adaptation remains challenging. Very little progress has been made with respect to time-varying fitness landscapes. Using the adaptive-walk approximation, we survey the evolutionary process of populations under a scenario of environmental variation. In particular, we investigate how the rate of environmental variation influences the predictability in evolution. We observe that the rate of environmental variation not only changes the duration of adaptive walks towards fitness peaks of the fitness landscape, but also affects the degree of repeatability of both outcomes and evolutionary paths. In general, slower environmental variation increases the predictability in evolution. The accessibility of endpoints is greatly influenced by the ecological dynamics. The dependence of these quantities on the genome size and number of traits is also addressed. To our knowledge, this contribution is the first to use the predictive approach to quantify and understand the impact of the speed of environmental variation on the degree of parallelism of the evolutionary process.

Age-dependent genetic architecture across ontogeny of body size in sticklebacks

Heritable variation in traits under natural selection is a prerequisite for evolutionary response. While it is recognized that trait heritability may vary spatially and temporally depending on which environmental conditions traits are expressed under, less is known about the possibility that genetic variance contributing to the expected selection response in a given trait may vary at different stages of ontogeny. Specifically, whether different loci underlie the expression of a trait throughout development and thus providing an additional source of variation for selection to act on in the wild, is unclear. Here we show that body size, an important life-history trait, is heritable throughout ontogeny in the nine-spined stickleback (Pungitius pungitius). Nevertheless, both analyses of quantitative trait loci and genetic correlations across ages show that different chromosomes/loci contribute to this heritability in different ontogenic time-points. This suggests that body size can respond to selection at different stages of ontogeny but that this response is determined by different loci at different points of development. Hence, our study provides important results regarding our understanding of the genetics of ontogeny and opens an interesting avenue of research for studying age-specific genetic architecture as a source of non-parallel evolution.

Population size mediates the contribution of high-rate and large-benefit mutations to parallel evolution

Mutations with large fitness benefits and mutations occurring at high rates may both cause parallel evolution, but their contribution is predicted to depend on population size. Moreover, high-rate and large-benefit mutations may have different long-term adaptive consequences. We show that small and 100-fold larger bacterial populations evolve resistance to a β-lactam antibiotic by using similar numbers, but different types of mutations. Small populations frequently substitute similar high-rate structural variants and loss-of-function point mutations, including the deletion of a low-activity β-lactamase, and evolve modest resistance levels. Large populations more often use low-rate, large-benefit point mutations affecting the same targets, including mutations activating the β-lactamase and other gain-of-function mutations, leading to much higher resistance levels. Our results demonstrate the separation by clonal interference of mutation classes with divergent adaptive consequences, causing a shift from high-rate to large-benefit mutations with increases in population size.

Contribution of single-cell omics to microbial ecology

Micro-organisms play key roles in various ecosystems, but many of their functions and interactions remain undefined. To investigate the ecological relevance of microbial communities, new molecular tools are being developed. Among them, single-cell omics assessing genetic diversity at the population and community levels and linking each individual cell to its functions is gaining interest in microbial ecology. By giving access to a wider range of ecological scales (from individual to community) than culture-based approaches and meta-omics, single-cell omics can contribute not only to micro-organisms' genomic and functional identification but also to the testing of concepts in ecology. Here, we discuss the contribution of single-cell omics to possible breakthroughs in concepts and knowledge on microbial ecosystems and ecoevolutionary processes.