A nomogram to identify high-risk melanoma patients with a negative sentinel lymph node biopsy

Sentinel lymph node assessment in melanoma: current state and future directions

Assessment of sentinel lymph node status is an important step in the evaluation of patients with melanoma for both prognosis and therapeutic management. Pathologists have an important role in this evaluation. The methodologies have varied over time, from the evaluation of dimensions of metastatic burden to determination of the location of the tumour deposits within the lymph node to precise cell counting. However, no single method of sentinel lymph node tumour burden measurement can currently be used as a sole independent predictor of prognosis. The management approach to sentinel lymph node-positive patients has also evolved over time, with a more conservative approach recently recognised for selected cases. This review gives an overview of past and current status in the field with a glimpse into future directions based on prior experiences and clinical trials.

Prognostic role of microsatellites in melanoma and implications in the American Joint Committee on Cancer classification system: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is limited information on microsatellite survival outcomes in patients with melanoma.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate survival outcomes in patients with microsatellites, assess their role within stage III stratification of the American Joint Committee on Cancer classification, and assess the results of sentinel lymph node biopsies in patients with microsatellites.

METHODS

A retrospective bicenter cohort study from 1998 to 2019 included patients with a diagnosis of invasive cutaneous melanoma.

RESULTS

Of a total of 5216 patients, 108 (2.1%) had microsatellites at initial staging. Survival analysis showed that microsatellites were an independent risk factor with decreased overall survival (OS), melanoma-specific survival (MSS), and disease-free survival, with hazard ratios of 1.57, 1.76, and 1.76, respectively. Stratified analysis in patients with stage III melanoma showed a 5-year OS of 35% (95% CI, 17.3%-73.4%) and a MSS of 45% (95% CI, 23.1-87.5) for patients with stage IIIB melanoma with microsatellites.

LIMITATIONS

Retrospective design of the study.

CONCLUSION

Microsatellites were associated with other adverse melanoma prognostic factors. A multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that they are an independent risk factor for worse OS, MSS, and disease-free survival. Patients with stage IIIB melanoma with microsatellites had worse OS and MSS, whereas patients with stage IIIC melanoma had worse OS but not MSS.

A nomogram combining clinical factors and biomarkers for predicting the recurrence of high-risk cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma

Background

Although determining the recurrence of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) is important, currently suggested systems and single biomarkers have limited power for predicting recurrence.

Objective

In this study, combinations of clinical factors and biomarkers were adapted into a nomogram to construct a powerful risk prediction model.

Methods

The study included 145 cSCC patients treated with Mohs micrographic surgery. Clinical factors were reviewed, and immunohistochemistry was performed using tumor tissue samples. A nomogram was constructed by combining meaningful clinical factors and protein markers.

Results

Among the various factors, four clinical factors (tumor size, organ transplantation history, poor differentiation, and invasion into subcutaneous fat) and two biomarkers (Axin2 and p53) were selected and combined into a nomogram. The concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram for predicting recurrence was 0.809, which was higher than that for the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 7th, AJCC 8th, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, and Breuninger staging systems in the patient data set.

Conclusion

A nomogram model that included both clinical factors and biomarkers was much more powerful than previous systems for predicting cSCC recurrence.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-022-10213-2.

Development and validation of a nomogram incorporating gene expression profiling and clinical factors for accurate prediction of metastasis in patients with cutaneous melanoma following Mohs micrographic surgery

BACKGROUND

There is a need to improve prognostic accuracy for patients with cutaneous melanoma. A 31-gene expression profile (31-GEP) test uses the molecular biology of primary tumors to identify individual patient metastatic risk.

OBJECTIVE

Develop a nomogram incorporating 31-GEP with relevant clinical factors to improve prognostic accuracy.

METHODS

In an IRB-approved study, 1124 patients from 9 Mohs micrographic surgery centers were prospectively enrolled, treated with Mohs micrographic surgery, and underwent 31-GEP testing. Data from 684 of those patients with at least 1-year follow-up or a metastatic event were included in nomogram development to predict metastatic risk.

RESULTS

Logistic regression modeling of 31-GEP results and T stage provided the simplest nomogram with the lowest Bayesian information criteria score. Validation in an archival cohort (n = 901) demonstrated a significant linear correlation between observed and nomogram-predicted risk of metastasis. The resulting nomogram more accurately predicts the risk for cutaneous melanoma metastasis than T stage or 31-GEP alone.

LIMITATIONS

The patient population is representative of Mohs micrographic surgery centers. Sentinel lymph node biopsy was not performed for most patients and could not be used in the nomogram.

CONCLUSIONS

Integration of 31-GEP and T stage can gain clinically useful prognostic information from data obtained noninvasively.

Prognostic Implications of Metabolism Related Gene Signature in Cutaneous Melanoma

Metabolic reprogramming is closely related to melanoma. However, the prognostic role of metabolism-related genes (MRGs) remains to be elucidated. We aimed to establish a nomogram by combining MRGs signature and clinicopathological factors to predict melanoma prognosis. Eighteen prognostic MRGs between melanoma and normal samples were identified using The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and GSE15605. WARS (HR = 0.881, 95% CI = 0.788–0.984, P = 0.025) and MGST1 (HR = 1.124, 95% CI = 1.007–1.255, P = 0.037) were ultimately identified as independent prognostic MRGs with LASSO regression and multivariate Cox regression. The MRGs signature was established according to these two genes and externally validated in the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) dataset. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis indicated that patients in the high-risk group had significantly poorer overall survival (OS) than those in the low-risk group. Furthermore, the MRGs signature was identified as an independent prognostic factor for melanoma survival. An MRGs nomogram based on the MRGs signature and clinicopathological factors was developed in TCGA cohort and validated in the GEO dataset. Calibration plots showed good consistency between the prediction of nomogram and actual observation. The receiver operating characteristic curve and decision curve analysis indicated that MRGs nomogram had better OS prediction and clinical net benefit than the stage system. To our knowledge, we are the first to develop a prognostic nomogram based on MRGs signature with better predictive power than the current staging system, which could assist individualized prognosis prediction and improve treatment.

Sentinel Node Status is the Most Important Prognostic Information for Clinical Stage IIB and IIC Melanoma Patients

BACKGROUND

Sentinel node biopsy (SNB) for melanoma patients has been questioned. We aimed to study high-risk stage II melanoma patients who underwent SNB to determine what the prognostic factors regarding recurrence and mortality were, and evaluate how relevant SNB status is in this scenario.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of clinical stage IIB/IIC melanoma patients who underwent SNB from 2000 to 2015 in a single institution. Prognostic factors related to distant recurrence-free survival (DRFS) and melanoma-specific survival (MSS) were assessed from multiple Cox regression. Relevant variables were used to create risk predictor nomograms for DRFS and MSS.

RESULTS

From 1213 SNB, 259 were performed for clinical stage IIB/IIC melanoma patients. SNB status was the most important variable for both endpoints. Patients with positive SNB presented median DRFS of 35.73 months (95% CI 21.38-50.08, SE 7.32) and median MSS of 66.4 months (95% CI 29.76-103.03, SE 18.69), meanwhile both median DRFS and MSS were not achieved for those with negative SNB (logrank < 0.0001). Both nomograms have been internally validated and presented adequate calibration (C-index was 0.734 for DRFS and 0.718 for MSS).

CONCLUSIONS

SNB status was the most important risk factor in our cohort of clinical stage IIB and IIC patients and, in conjunction with well-established primary tumor characteristics, should not be abandoned. Their use in prognosis for these patients remains extremely useful for daily practice.

External validation of a prognostic model to predict survival of patients with sentinel node-negative melanoma

Background

Identifying patients with sentinel node‐negative melanoma at high risk of recurrence or death is important. The European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) recently developed a prognostic model including Breslow thickness, ulceration and site of the primary tumour. The aims of the present study were to validate this prognostic model externally and to assess whether it could be improved by adding other prognostic factors.

Methods

Patients with sentinel node‐negative cutaneous melanoma were included in this retrospective single‐institution study. The β values of the EORTC prognostic model were used to predict recurrence‐free survival and melanoma‐specific survival. The predictive performance was assessed by discrimination (c‐index) and calibration. Seeking to improve the performance of the model, additional variables were added to a Cox proportional hazards model.

Results

Some 4235 patients with sentinel node‐negative cutaneous melanoma were included. The median follow‐up time was 50 (i.q.r. 18·5–81·5) months. Recurrences and deaths from melanoma numbered 793 (18·7 per cent) and 456 (10·8 per cent) respectively. Validation of the EORTC model showed good calibration for both outcomes, and a c‐index of 0·69. The c‐index was only marginally improved to 0·71 when other significant prognostic factors (sex, age, tumour type, mitotic rate) were added.

Conclusion

This study validated the EORTC prognostic model for recurrence‐free and melanoma‐specific survival of patients with negative sentinel nodes. The addition of other prognostic factors only improved the model marginally. The validated EORTC model could be used for personalizing follow‐up and selecting high‐risk patients for trials of adjuvant systemic therapy.