Separating Truth from Alternative Facts: 37 Years of Guns, Murder, and Violence Across the US

Bullet holes: A novel model to identify the most impactful gaps in the firearm homicide prevention laws of each state

BACKGROUND

Firearm homicides (FH) are a major cause of mortality in the United States. Firearm law implementation is variable across states, and legislative gaps may represent opportunities for FH prevention. For each state, we sought to identify which firearm law category would have been most effective if implemented and how effective it would have been.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study examining the effects of firearm laws on FH rates in the 48 contiguous US states 2010 to 2019. Data were obtained from the CDC WONDER and FBI UCR databases, State Firearm Law Database, and US Census. Firearm laws were grouped into 14 categories. We assessed the association between the presence of each law category and FH rate as an incidence rate ratio (IRR) using a Poisson regression accounting for state population characteristics and laws of surrounding states. We estimated the IRR for each state that did not have a given law category present and determined which of these missing law categories would have been associated with the greatest reduction in FH rate.

RESULTS

FH rates varied widely across states and increased from a mean of 3.2 (SD = 1.7) to 4.2 (SD = 2.9) FH per 100,000. All law categories were significantly associated with decreased FH rate ( p < 0.05), with IRR ranging from 0.25 to 0.85. The most effective missing law category differed between states but was most commonly child access prevention (34.09% of states), assault weapons and large-capacity magazines (15.91%), preemption (15.91%), and concealed carry permitting (13.64%). In total across 2010 to 2019, we estimated that 129,599 fewer FH would have occurred with enactment of the most effective missing law category in each state.

CONCLUSION

Modeling firearm law prevention of FH with regard to state legislative and population characteristics can identify the highest impact missing law categories in each state. These results can be used to inform efforts to reduce FH.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic and Epidemiological; Level IV.

Firearm injuries associated with law enforcement activity

BACKGROUND

Law enforcement activity can involve firearms, and either a civilian or the law enforcement officer can be injured. It was the purpose of this study to characterize the injuries and demographics associated with law enforcement firearm activity across the entire US using a national data base.

METHODS

Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research Firearm Injury Surveillance Study data 1993-2015 was used. Law enforcement involvement and other demographic variables were ascertained. Statistical analyses were performed accounting for the weighted, stratified nature of the data. P < 0.05 was considered to be statistically significant.

RESULTS

There were an estimated 2,667,896 ED visits for injuries due to firearms; 1.7% (45,497) were associated with law enforcement. Those involved with law enforcement were older (33.2 vs 29.8 years), a handgun was more commonly involved (80.3 vs 71.5%), male (90.7 vs 86.8%), White (52.9 vs 37.2%), had more upper trunk injuries (25.2 vs 16.2%), fewer lower extremity (15.1% vs 25.9%) injuries, and more fatalities (10.0 vs. 6.2%). An argument, crime, fight and drug involvement were all greater in the law enforcement group. Within the law enforcement group, when the injured patient was the civilian and not the officer, the patient was more commonly Black, male, sustained more trunk injuries, fewer extremity injuries, and more frequently admitted to the hospital. The civilian group had fewer upper extremity (11.7% vs 29.7%), lower extremity (12.2% vs 23.7%) and lower trunk injuries (14.6% vs 8.0%), more upper trunk injuries (31.3% vs 7.8%, and similar proportion of head/neck injuries (31.5% vs 30.7%) compared to the officer group. More females were injured in the officer group (16.9% vs 7.5%). The fatality rate was 12.6% for the civilian group and 3.0% for the officer group. There were no differences by race in disposition from the ED (released, admitted, death) for those who sustained injuries by the officer.

CONCLUSIONS

Firearm injuries due to law enforcement activity occurred in 1.7% of all ED visits for injuries due to firearms. The law enforcement officer was the injured patient in 23% of the events. This study spanning nearly a quarter of a century of data for injuries due to firearm activity resulting in ED visits is baseline data for future studies, especially in the present setting of calls for police reform within the US. This will be important when analyzing the effect of new programs in law enforcement training and/or police reform.

Caught in the crossfire: 37 Years of firearm violence afflicting America's youth

INTRODUCTION

Publicly available firearm data are difficult to access. Trauma registry data are excellent at documenting patterns of firearm-related injury. Law enforcement data excel at capturing national violence trends to include both circumstances and firearm involvement. The goal of this study was to use publicly available law enforcement data from all 50 states to better define patterns of firearm-related homicides in the young.

METHODS

All homicides in individuals 25 years or younger in the United States over a 37-year period ending in 2016 were analyzed: infant, 1 year or younger; child, 1 to 9 years old; adolescent, 10 to 19 years old; and young adult, 20 to 25 years old. Primary data files were obtained from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and comprised the database. Data analyzed included homicide type, situation, circumstance, month, firearm type, and demographics. Rates of all homicides and firearm-related homicides per 1 million population and the proportion of firearm-related homicides (out of all homicides) were stratified by year and compared over time using simple linear regression.

RESULTS

A total of 171,113 incidents of firearm-related homicide were analyzed (69% of 246,437 total homicides): 5,313 infants, 2,332 children, 59,777 adolescents, and 103,691 young adults. Most (88%) were male and Black (59%) with a median age of 20 years. Firearm-related homicides peaked during the summer months of June, July, and August (median, 1,156 per year; p = 0.0032). Rates of all homicides (89 to 53 per 1 million population) and firearm-related homicides (56 to 41 per 1 million population) decreased significantly from 1980 to 2016 (β = -1.12, p < 0.0001 and β = -0.57, p = 0.0039, respectively). However, linear regression analysis identified a significant increase in the proportion of firearm-related homicides (out of all homicides) from 63% in 1980 to 76% in 2016 (β = 0.33, p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

For those 25 years or younger, the proportion of firearm-related homicides has steadily and significantly increased over the past 37 years, with 3 of 4 homicides firearm related in the modern era. Despite focused efforts, reductions in the rate of firearm-related homicides still lag behind those for all other methods of homicide by nearly 50%. That is, while the young are less likely to die from homicide, for those unfortunate victims, it is more likely to be due to a firearm. This increasing role of firearms in youth homicides underscores the desperate need to better direct prevention efforts and firearm policy if we hope to further reduce firearm-related deaths in the young.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Epidemiological study, level III.