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Shi L, Lu J, Sun X, Li Z, Zhang L, Lu Y, Yao Y. Impact of Varicella Immunization and Public Health and Social Measures on Varicella Incidence: Insights from Surveillance Data in Shanghai, 2013-2022. Vaccines (Basel) 2023; 11:1674. [PMID: 38006006 PMCID: PMC10674188 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines11111674] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2023] [Revised: 10/27/2023] [Accepted: 10/28/2023] [Indexed: 11/26/2023] Open
Abstract
To evaluate the impact of a two-dose VarV program on varicella incidence among the whole population, considering the influence of public health and social measures (PHSMs), we extracted surveillance data on varicella cases during 2013-2022 in Minhang, Shanghai. Then, we estimated the incidence trend of varicella through interrupted time-series analyses and quantified the impact of the immunization program and PHSMs using Serfling regression. We also explored the associations between PHSMs and varicella cases. The implementation of the two-dose VarV strategy was followed by a significant decrease in varicella incidence (-1.84% per month). After one year of the program, varicella incidence was estimated at a 45.25% reduction, which was higher in children (59.12% and 54.09%) than in adults (19.49%). The decrease attributed to PHSMs was 31.26% during 2020-2022, and school closing was identified as the most relevant PHSM (b = -8.03 cases, r = -0.67 with a 1-week lag). These findings indicate that the two-dose immunization program has more effectively reduced the varicella incidence compared with the one-dose vaccine, and interventions like school closings are also encouraged to serve as supplementary measures to prevent varicella epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liming Shi
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, 131 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China; (L.S.); (Y.L.)
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, 131 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Jia Lu
- Minhang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 965 Zhongyi Road, Shanghai 201101, China; (J.L.); (L.Z.)
| | - Xiaodong Sun
- Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 1380 West Zhongshan Road, Shanghai 200336, China; (X.S.); (Z.L.)
| | - Zhi Li
- Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 1380 West Zhongshan Road, Shanghai 200336, China; (X.S.); (Z.L.)
| | - Liping Zhang
- Minhang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 965 Zhongyi Road, Shanghai 201101, China; (J.L.); (L.Z.)
| | - Yihan Lu
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, 131 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China; (L.S.); (Y.L.)
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, 131 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Ye Yao
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, 131 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China; (L.S.); (Y.L.)
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, 131 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
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Prabdial-Sing N, Motaze V, Manamela J, McCarthy K, Suchard M. Establishment of Outbreak Thresholds for Hepatitis A in South Africa Using Laboratory Surveillance, 2017–2020. Viruses 2021; 13:v13122470. [PMID: 34960739 PMCID: PMC8704411 DOI: 10.3390/v13122470] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2021] [Revised: 12/07/2021] [Accepted: 12/07/2021] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
Abstract
As South Africa transitions from endemic to intermediate endemicity, hepatitis A surveillance needs strengthening to monitor trends in disease incidence and to identify outbreaks. We used passive laboratory-based surveillance data from the National Health Laboratory Services to calculate national hepatitis A incidence and to establish thresholds for outbreaks. Incidence was calculated by age and geographic location. The static threshold used two or three standard deviations (SDs) above the mean hepatitis A incidence in 2017–2019, and a cumulative summation (CuSum2) threshold used three SDs above the mean of the preceding seven months. These thresholds were applied to hepatitis A data for 2020. From 2017 to 2020, the mean incidence of hepatitis A IgM was 4.06/100,000 and ranged from 4.23 to 4.85/100,000 per year. Hepatitis A incidence was highest in the Western Cape province (WCP) (7.00–10.92/100,000 per year). The highest incidence was in the 1–9-year-olds. The incidence of hepatitis A in 2020 exceeded the static threshold in two districts of the WCP: Cape Winelands in January and Overberg district in August. The provincial incidence did not exceed the static and CuSum2 thresholds. District-level analysis using either threshold was sensitive enough to monitor trends and to alert district health authorities, allowing early outbreak responses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nishi Prabdial-Sing
- Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg 2131, South Africa; (V.M.); (J.M.); (K.M.); (M.S.)
- Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Pathology, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2000, South Africa
- Correspondence:
| | - Villyen Motaze
- Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg 2131, South Africa; (V.M.); (J.M.); (K.M.); (M.S.)
- Department of Global Health, Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town 7935, South Africa
| | - Jack Manamela
- Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg 2131, South Africa; (V.M.); (J.M.); (K.M.); (M.S.)
| | - Kerrigan McCarthy
- Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg 2131, South Africa; (V.M.); (J.M.); (K.M.); (M.S.)
| | - Melinda Suchard
- Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg 2131, South Africa; (V.M.); (J.M.); (K.M.); (M.S.)
- Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Pathology, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2000, South Africa
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Sánchez-Balseca J, Pérez-Foguet A. Influence of atmospheric parameters on human mortality data at different geographical levels. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 759:144186. [PMID: 33340863 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144186] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2020] [Revised: 11/13/2020] [Accepted: 11/23/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Human mortality data are often modeled using a demographic approach as a function of time. This approach does not present an adequate fit model for the number of deaths with great variability. For this reason, additional information (social, economic and environmental) is required for complementing and improving demographic modelling. This article evaluated the association between human mortality data (segregated by age and sex) with meteorological and air pollutant covariates at three geographical levels: country, macro-climate regions and county. The modelling was based on a generalized linear modelling framework and takes into account the common characteristic of overdispersion in human mortality data through the application of negative binomial distribution. The proposed approach improved the dynamic behavior of the Farrington-like model (basic demographic model) and took into account the extreme meteorological and natural air pollution events. Notably, the proposed modelling worked well in cases where the amount of data was scarce.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joseph Sánchez-Balseca
- Research group on Engineering Sciences and Global Development (EScGD), Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya - BarcelonaTech (UPC), Spain.
| | - Agustí Pérez-Foguet
- Research group on Engineering Sciences and Global Development (EScGD), Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya - BarcelonaTech (UPC), Spain.
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