Learning Bayesian networks from demographic and health survey data

Bayesian Networks for Prescreening in Depression: Algorithm Development and Validation

BACKGROUND

Identifying individuals with depressive symptomatology (DS) promptly and effectively is of paramount importance for providing timely treatment. Machine learning models have shown promise in this area; however, studies often fall short in demonstrating the practical benefits of using these models and fail to provide tangible real-world applications.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to establish a novel methodology for identifying individuals likely to exhibit DS, identify the most influential features in a more explainable way via probabilistic measures, and propose tools that can be used in real-world applications.

METHODS

The study used 3 data sets: PROACTIVE, the Brazilian National Health Survey (Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde [PNS]) 2013, and PNS 2019, comprising sociodemographic and health-related features. A Bayesian network was used for feature selection. Selected features were then used to train machine learning models to predict DS, operationalized as a score of ≥10 on the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire. The study also analyzed the impact of varying sensitivity rates on the reduction of screening interviews compared to a random approach.

RESULTS

The methodology allows the users to make an informed trade-off among sensitivity, specificity, and a reduction in the number of interviews. At the thresholds of 0.444, 0.412, and 0.472, determined by maximizing the Youden index, the models achieved sensitivities of 0.717, 0.741, and 0.718, and specificities of 0.644, 0.737, and 0.766 for PROACTIVE, PNS 2013, and PNS 2019, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.736, 0.801, and 0.809 for these 3 data sets, respectively. For the PROACTIVE data set, the most influential features identified were postural balance, shortness of breath, and how old people feel they are. In the PNS 2013 data set, the features were the ability to do usual activities, chest pain, sleep problems, and chronic back problems. The PNS 2019 data set shared 3 of the most influential features with the PNS 2013 data set. However, the difference was the replacement of chronic back problems with verbal abuse. It is important to note that the features contained in the PNS data sets differ from those found in the PROACTIVE data set. An empirical analysis demonstrated that using the proposed model led to a potential reduction in screening interviews of up to 52% while maintaining a sensitivity of 0.80.

CONCLUSIONS

This study developed a novel methodology for identifying individuals with DS, demonstrating the utility of using Bayesian networks to identify the most significant features. Moreover, this approach has the potential to substantially reduce the number of screening interviews while maintaining high sensitivity, thereby facilitating improved early identification and intervention strategies for individuals experiencing DS.

Multilevel Bayesian network to model child morbidity using Gibbs sampling

Bayesian networks (BNs) are suitable models for studying complex interdependencies between multiple health outcomes, simultaneously. However, these models fail the assumption of independent observation in the case of hierarchical data. Therefore, this study proposes a two and three-level random intercept multilevel Bayesian network (MBN) models to study the conditional dependencies between multiple outcomes. The structure of MBN was learned using the connected three parent set block Gibbs sampler, where each local network was included based on Bayesian information criteria (BIC) score of multilevel regression. These models were examined using simulated data assuming features of both multilevel models and BNs. The estimated area under the receiver operating characteristics for both models were above 0.8, indicating good fit. The MBN was then applied to real child morbidity data from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic Health Survey (EDHS). The result shows a complex causal dependencies between malnutrition indicators and child morbidities such as anemia, acute respiratory infection (ARI) and diarrhea. According to this result, families and health professionals should give special attention to children who suffer from malnutrition and also have one of these illnesses, as the co-occurrence of both can worsen the health of a child.

Introduction of Breast Milk Substitutes During the First 3 Days of Life: Results of the Mexican National Survey of Demographic Dynamics, 2018

Background: The introduction of foods or fluids other than breast milk in the first few days after birth interferes with the establishment of breastfeeding. This study aimed to investigate the association of formula introduction during the first 3 days of life with maternal sociodemographic characteristics, hospital practices, and breastfeeding duration. Materials and Methods: Information from the National Survey of Demographic Dynamics, 2018, which includes 17,686 mother-baby pairs was analyzed. Mother-baby pairs were classified into categories according to breastfeeding duration: <5 months and ≥5 months. Statistical methods and a machine learning algorithm (Bayesian network, BN) were used to analyze the data. Results: In general, 3,720 (21%) mothers reported introducing formula during the first 3 days of life. A lower education level, lower sociodemographic stratum, living in a rural area, and considering oneself indigenous were factors associated with not introducing formula during the first 3 days of life. A total of 5,168 (29.2%) mother-baby pairs practiced breastfeeding for <5 months, and 12,518 (70.8%) for ≥5 months. Almost twice as many mothers who practiced breastfeeding for <5 months introduced formula during the first 3 days of life (31.7%) compared with those who practiced breastfeeding for ≥5 months (16.6%). The BN model can sufficiently predict cases with a breastfeeding duration ≥5 months (precision-recall curve area = 0.792). Discussion: Introducing formula during the first 3 days of life was associated with a shorter breastfeeding duration. BN analysis showed a probabilistic dependency between the type of delivery and variables associated with the establishment of breastfeeding.

A survey of Bayesian Network structure learning

Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular over the last few decades as a tool for reasoning under uncertainty in fields as diverse as medicine, biology, epidemiology, economics and the social sciences. This is especially true in real-world areas where we seek to answer complex questions based on hypothetical evidence to determine actions for intervention. However, determining the graphical structure of a BN remains a major challenge, especially when modelling a problem under causal assumptions. Solutions to this problem include the automated discovery of BN graphs from data, constructing them based on expert knowledge, or a combination of the two. This paper provides a comprehensive review of combinatoric algorithms proposed for learning BN structure from data, describing 74 algorithms including prototypical, well-established and state-of-the-art approaches. The basic approach of each algorithm is described in consistent terms, and the similarities and differences between them highlighted. Methods of evaluating algorithms and their comparative performance are discussed including the consistency of claims made in the literature. Approaches for dealing with data noise in real-world datasets and incorporating expert knowledge into the learning process are also covered.

Ensemble Machine Learning Model to Predict the Waterborne Syndrome

The COVID-19 epidemic has highlighted the significance of sanitization and maintaining hygienic access to clean water to reduce mortality and morbidity cases worldwide. Diarrhea is one of the prevalent waterborne diseases caused due to contaminated water in many low-income countries with similar living conditions. According to the latest statistics from the World Health Organization (WHO), diarrhea is among the top five primary causes of death worldwide in low-income nations. The condition affects people in every age group due to a lack of proper water used for daily living. In this study, a stacking ensemble machine learning model was employed against traditional models to extract clinical knowledge for better understanding patients’ characteristics; disease prevalence; hygienic conditions; quality of water used for cooking, bathing, and toiletries; chemicals used; therapist’s medications; and symptoms that are reflected in the field study data. Results revealed that the ensemble model provides higher accuracy with 98.90% as part of training and testing phases when experimented against frequently used J48, Naïve Bayes, SVM, NN, PART, Random Forest, and Logistic Regression models. Managing outcomes of this research in the early stages could assist people in low-income countries to have a better lifestyle, fewer infections, and minimize expensive hospital visits.

Influential Usage of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare

Artificial intelligence (AI) is making computer systems capable of executing human brain tasks in many fields in all aspects of daily life. The enhancement in information and communications technology (ICT) has indisputably improved the quality of people's lives around the globe. Especially, ICT has led to a very needy and tremendous improvement in the health sector which is commonly known as electronic health (eHealth) and medical health (mHealth). Deep machine learning and AI approaches are commonly presented in many applications using big data, which consists of all relevant data about the medical health and diseases which a model can access at the time of execution or diagnosis of diseases. For example, cardiovascular imaging has now accurate imaging combined with big data from the eHealth record and pathology to better characterize the disease and personalized therapy. In clinical work and imaging, cancer care is getting improved by knowing the tumor biology and helping in the implementation of precision medicine. The Markov model is used to extract new approaches for leveraging cancer. In this paper, we have reviewed existing research relevant to eHealth and mHealth where various models are discussed which uses big data for the diagnosis and healthcare system. This paper summarizes the recent promising applications of AI and big data in medical health and electronic health, which have potentially added value to diagnosis and patient care.