Applicability of the APACHE II model to a lower middle income country

Implementing an ICU registry in Ethiopia-Implications for critical care quality improvement

PURPOSE

Intensive care units (ICUs) in low- and middle-income countries have high mortality rates, and clinical data are needed to guide quality improvement (QI) efforts. This study utilizes data from a validated ICU registry specially developed for resource-limited settings to identify evidence-based QI priorities for ICUs in Ethiopia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort analysis of data from two tertiary referral hospital ICUs in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia from July 2021-June 2022 was conducted to describe casemix, complications and outcomes and identify features associated with ICU mortality.

RESULTS

Among 496 patients, ICU mortality was 35.3%. The most common reasons for ICU admission were respiratory failure (24.0%), major head injury (17.5%) and sepsis/septic shock (13.3%). Complications occurred in 41.0% of patients. ICU mortality was higher among patients with respiratory failure (46.2%), sepsis (66.7%) and vasopressor requirements (70.5%), those admitted from the hospital ward (64.7%), and those experiencing major complications in the ICU (62.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, ICU mortality was high, and complications were common and associated with increased mortality. ICU registries are invaluable tools to understand local casemix and clinical outcomes, especially in resource-limited settings. These findings provide a foundation for QI efforts and a baseline to evaluate their impact.

Prognostic evaluation of quick sequential organ failure assessment score in ICU patients with sepsis across different income settings

BACKGROUND

There is conflicting evidence on association between quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) and sepsis mortality in ICU patients. The primary aim of this study was to determine the association between qSOFA and 28-day mortality in ICU patients admitted for sepsis. Association of qSOFA with early (3-day), medium (28-day), late (90-day) mortality was assessed in low and lower middle income (LLMIC), upper middle income (UMIC) and high income (HIC) countries/regions.

METHODS

This was a secondary analysis of the MOSAICS II study, an international prospective observational study on sepsis epidemiology in Asian ICUs. Associations between qSOFA at ICU admission and mortality were separately assessed in LLMIC, UMIC and HIC countries/regions. Modified Poisson regression was used to determine the adjusted relative risk (RR) of qSOFA score on mortality at 28 days with adjustments for confounders identified in the MOSAICS II study.

RESULTS

Among the MOSAICS II study cohort of 4980 patients, 4826 patients from 343 ICUs and 22 countries were included in this secondary analysis. Higher qSOFA was associated with increasing 28-day mortality, but this was only observed in LLMIC (p < 0.001) and UMIC (p < 0.001) and not HIC (p = 0.220) countries/regions. Similarly, higher 90-day mortality was associated with increased qSOFA in LLMIC (p < 0.001) and UMIC (p < 0.001) only. In contrast, higher 3-day mortality with increasing qSOFA score was observed across all income countries/regions (p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that qSOFA remained associated with 28-day mortality (adjusted RR 1.09 (1.00-1.18), p = 0.038) even after adjustments for covariates including APACHE II, SOFA, income country/region and administration of antibiotics within 3 h.

CONCLUSIONS

qSOFA was independently associated with 28-day mortality in ICU patients admitted for sepsis. In LLMIC and UMIC countries/regions, qSOFA was associated with early to late mortality but only early mortality in HIC countries/regions.

Review of enteral nutrition practices in critically ill adults in resource-limited environments

Enteral nutrition in critical care is a complex area of practice. A resource-limited environment includes countries that are identified as low income and low/middle income. This review describes three themes for its successful implementation of enteral nutrition in a resource-limited environment. These include identification of patients at risk of malnutrition, using non-commercial feeds and the urgent need to develop practice. Malnutrition is a serious complication of critical illness and remains a crucial aspect of patient care in order to prevent complications. Further evidence to develop sustainable enteral nutrition strategies for critically ill patients is urgently required. This is a paper commissioned as part of the Humanitarian and Disaster Relief Operations special issue of BMJ Military Health.

Challenges and Solutions in translating sepsis guidelines into practice in resource-limited settings

Sepsis and septic shock are major contributors to the global burden of disease, with a large proportion of patients and deaths with sepsis estimated to occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). There are numerous barriers to reducing the large global burden of sepsis including challenges in quantifying attributable morbidity and mortality, poverty, inadequate awareness, health inequity, under-resourced public health, and low-resilient acute health care delivery systems. Context-specific approaches to this significant problem are necessary on account of important differences in populations at-risk, the nature of infecting pathogens, and the healthcare capacity to manage sepsis in LMIC. We review these challenges and propose an outline of some solutions to tackle them which include strengthening the healthcare systems, accurate and early identification of sepsis the need for inclusive research and context-specific treatment guidelines, and advocacy. Specifically, strengthening pediatric intensive care units (PICU) services can effectively treat the life-threatening complications of common diseases, such as diarrhoea, respiratory infections, severe malaria, and dengue, thereby improving the quality of pediatric care overall without the need for expensive interventions. A thoughtful approach to developing paediatric intensive care services in LMICs begins with basic fundamentals: training healthcare providers in knowledge and skills, selecting effective equipment that is resource-appropriate, and having an enabling leadership to provide location-appropriate care. These basics, if built in sustainable manner, have the potential to permit an efficient pediatric critical care service to be established that can significantly improve sepsis and other critical care outcomes.

What intensive care registries can teach us about outcomes

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Critical care registries are synonymous with measurement of outcomes following critical illness. Their ability to provide longitudinal data to enable benchmarking of outcomes for comparison within units over time, and between units, both regionally and nationally is a key part of the evaluation of quality of care and ICU performance as well as a better understanding of case-mix. This review aims to summarize literature on outcome measures currently being reported in registries internationally, describe the current strengths and challenges with interpreting existing outcomes and highlight areas where registries may help improve implementation and interpretation of both existing and new outcome measures.

RECENT FINDINGS

Outcomes being widely reported through ICU registries include measures of survival, events of interest, patient-reported outcomes and measures of resource utilization (including cost). Despite its increasing adoption, challenges with quality of reporting of outcomes measures remain. Measures of short-term survival are feasible but those requiring longer follow-ups are increasingly difficult to interpret given the evolving nature of critical care in the context of acute and chronic disease management. Furthermore, heterogeneity in patient populations and in healthcare organisations in different settings makes use of outcome measures for international benchmarking at best complex, requiring substantial advances in their definitions and implementation to support those seeking to improve patient care.

SUMMARY

Digital registries could help overcome some of the current challenges with implementing and interpreting ICU outcome data through standardization of reporting and harmonization of data. In addition, ICU registries could be instrumental in enabling data for feedback as part of improvement in both patient-centred outcomes and in service outcomes; notably resource utilization and efficiency.

Quality evaluation and future priorities for delivering acute myocardial infarction care in Sri Lanka

Aim

This study evaluates the quality of care for patients admitted with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in a tertiary hospital in Colombo using the European Society of Cardiology Quality of Care Working Group’s guidelines (2017).

Methods

A recently implemented electronic AMI registry m-Health tool was used for prospective data collection. Each patient was assessed for eligibility for each of the six domains of quality. Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events Risk Model for predicted probability of mortality, and scores for risk of bleeding complications (CRUSADE) and severity of heart failure (Killip classification) were calculated as per published guidelines. A composite measure of quality was derived from compliance with the six domains. Patients were followed up via telephone at 30 days following discharge to evaluate outcome and satisfaction. Organisational information was assessed by administrative review and interview.

Results

Between March 2017 and April 2018, 934 patients with AMI presented to the cardiology department. The majority of patients (90.4%) presented with features of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Mean (SD) overall compliance with the composite quality indicator (CQI) was 44% (0.07). Compliance of ≥50% to the CQI was achieved in 9.8% of STEMI patients. The highest compliance was observed for antithrombotics during hospitalisation (79.1%) and continuous measure of patient satisfaction (76.1%). The lowest compliance was for organisational structure and care processes (22.4%).

Conclusion

This study reports a registry-based continuous evaluation of the quality of AMI care from a low and middle-income country. Priorities for improvement include improved referral, and networking of primary and secondary health facilities with the percutaneous coronary intervention centre.

Critical care outcomes in resource-limited settings

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The burden of critical illness in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) is substantial. A better understanding of critical care outcomes is essential for improving critical care delivery in resource-limited settings. In this review, we provide an overview of recent literature reporting on critical care outcomes in LMICs. We discuss several barriers and potential solutions for a better understanding of critical care outcomes in LMICs.

RECENT FINDINGS

Epidemiologic studies show higher in-hospital mortality rates for critically ill patients in LMICs as compared with patients in high-income countries (HICs). Recent findings suggest that critical care interventions that are effective in HICs may not be effective and may even be harmful in LMICs. Little data on long-term and morbidity outcomes exist. Better outcomes measurement is beginning to emerge in LMICs through decision support tools that report process outcome measures, studies employing mobile health technologies with community health workers and the development of context-specific severity of illness scores.

SUMMARY

Outcomes from HICs cannot be reliably extrapolated to LMICs, so it is important to study outcomes for critically ill patients in LMICs. Specific challenges to achieving meaningful outcomes studies in LMICs include defining the critically ill population when few ICU beds exist, the resource-intensiveness of long-term follow-up, and the need for reliable severity of illness scores to interpret outcomes. Although much work remains to be done, examples of studies overcoming these challenges are beginning to emerge.

Addressing the information deficit in global health: lessons from a digital acute care platform in Sri Lanka

Lack of investment in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) in systems capturing continuous information regarding care of the acutely unwell patient is hindering global efforts to address inequalities, both at facility and national level. Furthermore, this of lack of data is disempowering frontline staff and those seeking to support them, from progressing setting-relevant research and quality improvement. In contrast to high-income country (HIC) settings, where electronic surveillance has boosted the capability of governments, clinicians and researchers to engage in service-wide healthcare evaluation, healthcare information in resource-limited settings remains almost exclusively paper based. In this practice paper, we describe the efforts of a collaboration of clinicians, administrators, researchers and healthcare informaticians working in South Asia, in addressing the inequality in access to patient information in acute care. Harnessing a clinician-led collaborative approach to design and evaluation, we have implemented a national acute care information platform in Sri Lanka that is tailored to priorities of frontline staff. Iterative adaptation has ensured the platform has the flexibility to integrate with legacy paper systems, support junior team members in advocating for acutely unwell patients and has made information captured accessible to diverse stakeholders to improve service delivery. The same platform is now empowering clinicians to participate in international research and drive forwards improvements in care. During this journey, we have also gained insights on how to overcome well-described barriers to implementation of digital information tools in LMIC. We anticipate that this north-south collaborative approach to addressing the challenges of health system implementation in acute care may provide learning and inspiration to other partnerships seeking to engage in similar work.

An automated computerized critical illness severity scoring system derived from APACHE III: modified APACHE

PURPOSE

To evaluate the performance of an automated computerized ICU severity scoring derived from the APACHE III.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Within a retrospective cohort of patients admitted to Veterans Health Administration ICUs between 2009 and 2015, we created an automated illness severity score(modified APACHE or mAPACHE), that we extracted from the electronic health records, using the same scoring as the APACHE III excluding the Glasgow Coma Scale, urine output, arterial blood gas components of APACHE III. We assessed the mAPACHE discrimination by using the area under the curve(AUC), and calibration by using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calculating the difference between observed and expected mortality across equal-sized risk deciles for death.

RESULTS

The ICU and 30-day mortality was 5.07% of 7.82%, respectively (n = 490,955 patients). The AUC of mAPACHE for ICU and 30-day mortality was 0.771 and 0.786, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was significant for both ICU and 30-day mortality (p < .001). The absolute difference between observed and expected mortality did not exceed ±1.53% across equal-sized deciles of risk for death. The AUC for ICU mortality was >0.7 in all admission diagnosis categories except in endocrine, respiratory, and sepsis. The AUC for 30-day mortality was >0.7 in every category.

CONCLUSION

mAPACHE has adequate performance to predict mortality.

Performance of critical care prognostic scoring systems in low and middle-income countries: a systematic review

Background

Prognostic models—used in critical care medicine for mortality predictions, for benchmarking and for illness stratification in clinical trials—have been validated predominantly in high-income countries. These results may not be reproducible in low or middle-income countries (LMICs), not only because of different case-mix characteristics but also because of missing predictor variables. The study objective was to systematically review literature on the use of critical care prognostic models in LMICs and assess their ability to discriminate between survivors and non-survivors at hospital discharge of those admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), their calibration, their accuracy, and the manner in which missing values were handled.

Methods

The PubMed database was searched in March 2017 to identify research articles reporting the use and performance of prognostic models in the evaluation of mortality in ICUs in LMICs. Studies carried out in ICUs in high-income countries or paediatric ICUs and studies that evaluated disease-specific scoring systems, were limited to a specific disease or single prognostic factor, were published only as abstracts, editorials, letters and systematic and narrative reviews or were not in English were excluded.

Results

Of the 2233 studies retrieved, 473 were searched and 50 articles reporting 119 models were included. Five articles described the development and evaluation of new models, whereas 114 articles externally validated Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation, the Simplified Acute Physiology Score and Mortality Probability Models or versions thereof. Missing values were only described in 34% of studies; exclusion and or imputation by normal values were used. Discrimination, calibration and accuracy were reported in 94.0%, 72.4% and 25% respectively. Good discrimination and calibration were reported in 88.9% and 58.3% respectively. However, only 10 evaluations that reported excellent discrimination also reported good calibration. Generalisability of the findings was limited by variability of inclusion and exclusion criteria, unavailability of post-ICU outcomes and missing value handling.

Conclusions

Robust interpretations regarding the applicability of prognostic models are currently hampered by poor adherence to reporting guidelines, especially when reporting missing value handling. Performance of mortality risk prediction models in LMIC ICUs is at best moderate, especially with limitations in calibration. This necessitates continued efforts to develop and validate LMIC models with readily available prognostic variables, perhaps aided by medical registries.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13054-017-1930-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) outcomes in an LMIC tertiary care centre and performance of trauma scores

BACKGROUND

This study evaluates post-ICU outcomes of patients admitted with moderate and severe Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) in a tertiary neurocritical care unit in an low middle income country and the performance of trauma scores: A Severity Characterization of Trauma, Trauma and Injury Severity Score, Injury Severity Score and Revised Trauma Score in this setting.

METHODS

Adult patients directly admitted to the neurosurgical intensive care units of the National Hospital of Sri Lanka between 21st July 2014 and 1st October 2014 with moderate or severe TBI were recruited. A telephone administered questionnaire based on the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE) was used to assess functional outcome of patients at 3 and 6 months after injury. The economic impact of the injury was assessed before injury, and at 3 and 6 months after injury.

RESULTS

One hundred and one patients were included in the study. Survival at ICU discharge, 3 and 6 months after injury was 68.3%, 49.5% and 45.5% respectively. Of the survivors at 3 months after injury, 43 (86%) were living at home. Only 19 (38%) patients had a good recovery (as defined by GOSE 7 and 8). Three months and six months after injury, respectively 25 (50%) and 14 (30.4%) patients had become "economically dependent". Selected trauma scores had poor discriminatory ability in predicting mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

This observational study of patients sustaining moderate or severe TBI in Sri Lanka (a LMIC) reveals only 46% of patients were alive at 6 months after ICU discharge and only 20% overall attained a good (GOSE 7 or 8) recovery. The social and economic consequences of TBI were long lasting in this setting. Injury Severity Score, Revised Trauma Score, A Severity Characterization of Trauma and Trauma and Injury Severity Score, all performed poorly in predicting mortality in this setting and illustrate the need for setting adapted tools.

Simplified prognostic model for critically ill patients in resource limited settings in South Asia

BACKGROUND

Current critical care prognostic models are predominantly developed in high-income countries (HICs) and may not be feasible in intensive care units (ICUs) in lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Existing prognostic models cannot be applied without validation in LMICs as the different disease profiles, resource availability, and heterogeneity of the population may limit the transferability of such scores. A major shortcoming in using such models in LMICs is the unavailability of required measurements. This study proposes a simplified critical care prognostic model for use at the time of ICU admission.

METHODS

This was a prospective study of 3855 patients admitted to 21 ICUs from Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka who were aged 16 years and over and followed to ICU discharge. Variables captured included patient age, admission characteristics, clinical assessments, laboratory investigations, and treatment measures. Multivariate logistic regression was used to develop three models for ICU mortality prediction: model 1 with clinical, laboratory, and treatment variables; model 2 with clinical and laboratory variables; and model 3, a purely clinical model. Internal validation based on bootstrapping (1000 samples) was used to calculate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow C-Statistic; higher values indicate poorer calibration). Comparison was made with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II models.

RESULTS

Model 1 recorded the respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), blood urea, haemoglobin, mechanical ventilation, and vasopressor use on ICU admission. Model 2, named TropICS (Tropical Intensive Care Score), included emergency surgery, respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure, GCS, blood urea, and haemoglobin. Model 3 included respiratory rate, emergency surgery, and GCS. AUC was 0.818 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.800-0.835) for model 1, 0.767 (0.741-0.792) for TropICS, and 0.725 (0.688-0.762) for model 3. The Hosmer-Lemeshow C-Statistic p values were less than 0.05 for models 1 and 3 and 0.18 for TropICS. In comparison, when APACHE II and SAPS II were applied to the same dataset, AUC was 0.707 (0.688-0.726) and 0.714 (0.695-0.732) and the C-Statistic was 124.84 (p < 0.001) and 1692.14 (p < 0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSION

This paper proposes TropICS as the first multinational critical care prognostic model developed in a non-HIC setting.