The past, present and future of a lizard: The phylogeography and extinction risk of Sceloporus serrifer (Squamata: Phrynosomatidae) under a global warming scenario

Climatic niche evolution in the viviparous Sceloporus torquatus group (Squamata: Phrynosomatidae)

The cold-climate hypothesis maintains that viviparity arose as a means to prevent increased egg mortality in nests owing to low temperatures, and this hypothesis represents the primary and most strongly supported explanation for the evolution of viviparity in reptiles. In this regard, certain authors have stated that viviparous species will exhibit speciation via climatic niche conservatism, with similar climatic niches being observed in allopatric sister species. However, this prediction remains to be tested with bioclimatic variables relevant to each viviparous group. In the present study, we examined climatic niche evolution in a group of North American viviparous lizards to determine whether their diversification is linked to phylogenetic niche conservatism (PNC). We evaluated the phylogenetic signal and trait evolution of individual bioclimatic variables and principal component (PC) scores of a PC analysis, along with reconstructions of ancestral climate tolerances. The results suggest that diversification of the Sceloporus torquatus group species is associated with both niche differentiation and PNC. Furthermore, we did not observe PNC across nearly all bioclimatic variables and in PC2 and PC3. However, in Precipitation Seasonality (Bio15), in Precipitation of Coldest Quarter (Bio19) and in PC1 (weakly associated with variability of temperature), we did observe PNC. Additionally, variation of the scores along the phylogeny and Pagel's delta (δ) >1 of PC3 suggests a fast, recent evolution to dry conditions in the clade that sustains S. serrifer.

Unraveling the influences of climate change in Lepidosauria (Reptilia)

In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans and many species have shifted their geographic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances and interactions in response to these changes. Projections of future climate change are uncertain, but the Earth's warming is likely to exceed 4.8 °C by the end of 21th century. The vulnerability of a population, species, group or system due to climate change is a function of impact of the changes on the evaluated system (exposure and sensitivity) and adaptive capacity as a response to this impact, and the relationship between these elements will determine the degree of species vulnerability. Predicting the potential future risks to biodiversity caused by climate change has become an extremely active field of research, and several studies in the last two decades had focused on determining possible impacts of climate change on Lepidosaurians, at a global, regional and local level. Here we conducted a systematic review of published studies in order to seek to what extent the accumulated knowledge currently allow us to identify potential trends or patterns regarding climate change effects on lizards, snakes, amphisbaenians and tuatara. We conducted a literature search among online literature databases/catalogues and recorded 255 studies addressing the influence of climate change on a total of 1918 species among 49 Lepidosaurian's families. The first study addressing this subject is dated 1999. Most of the studies focused on species distribution, followed by thermal biology, reproductive biology, behavior and genetics. We concluded that an integrative approach including most of these characteristics and also bioclimatic and environmental variables, may lead to consistent and truly effective strategies for species conservation, aiming to buffer the climate change effects on this group of reptiles.