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Zhao Y, Liu S, Liu H, Wang F, Dong Y, Wu G, Li Y, Wang W, Phan Tran LS, Li W. Multi-objective ecological restoration priority in China: Cost-benefit optimization in different ecological performance regimes based on planetary boundaries. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 356:120701. [PMID: 38531134 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120701] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/15/2024] [Revised: 03/09/2024] [Accepted: 03/17/2024] [Indexed: 03/28/2024]
Abstract
In the context of the "United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration", optimizing spatiotemporal arrangements for ecological restoration is an important approach to enhancing overall socioecological benefits for sustainable development. However, against the background of ecological degradation caused by the human use of most natural resources at levels that have approached or exceeded the safe and sustainable boundaries of ecosystems, it is key to explain how to optimize ecological restoration by classified management and optimal total benefits. In response to these issues, we combined spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics at the national scale in China to construct five ecological performance regimes defined by indicators that use planetary boundaries and ecological pressures which served as the basis for prioritizing ecological restoration areas and implementing zoning control. By integrating habitat conservation, biodiversity, water supply, and restoration cost constraints, seven ecological restoration scenarios were simulated to optimize the spatial layout of ecological restoration projects (ERPs). The results indicated that the provinces with unsustainable freshwater use, climate change, and land use accounted for more than 25%, 66.7%, and 25%, respectively, of the total area. Only 30% of the provinces experienced a decrease in environmental pressure. Based on the ecological performance regimes, ERP sites spanning the past 20 years were identified, and more than 50% of the priority areas were clustered in regime areas with increased ecological stress. As the restoration area targets doubled (40%) from the baseline (20%), a multi-objective scenario presents a trade-off between expanded ERPs in areas with highly beneficial effects and minimal restoration costs. In conclusion, a reasonable classification and management regime is the basis for targeted restoration. Coordinating multiple objectives and costs in ecological restoration is the key to maximizing socio-ecological benefits. Our study offered new perspectives on systematic and sustainable planning for ecological restoration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yifei Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
| | - Shiliang Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
| | - Hua Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
| | - Fangfang Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
| | - Yuhong Dong
- Research Institute of Forestry, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, 100091, China
| | - Gang Wu
- Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100085, China
| | - Yetong Li
- State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
| | - Wanting Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
| | - Lam-Son Phan Tran
- Institute of Genomics for Crop Abiotic Stress Tolerance, Department of Plant and Soil Science, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, 79409, USA
| | - Weiqiang Li
- Key Laboratory of Mollisols Agroecology, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun, 130102, China
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2
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Wyver C, Potts SG, Edwards M, Edwards R, Senapathi D. Spatio-temporal shifts in British wild bees in response to changing climate. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10705. [PMID: 38020698 PMCID: PMC10654479 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10705] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2023] [Revised: 10/05/2023] [Accepted: 10/22/2023] [Indexed: 12/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate plays a major role in determining where species occur, and when they are active throughout the year. In the face of a changing climate, many species are shifting their ranges poleward. Many species are also shifting their emergence phenology. Wild bees in Great Britain are susceptible to changes in climatic conditions but little is known about historic or potential future spatio-temporal trends of many species. This study utilized a sliding window approach to assess the impacts of climate on bee emergence dates, estimating the best temperature window for predicting emergence dates for 88 species of wild bees. Using a 'middle-of-the-road' (RCP 4.5) and 'worst-case' (RCP 8.5) climate scenario for the period 2070-2079, predictions of future emergence dates were made. In general, the best predicting climate window occurred in the 0-3 months preceding emergence. Across the 40 species that showed a shift in emergence dates in response to a climate window, the mean advance was 13.4 days under RCP 4.5 and 24.9 days under RCP 8.5. Species distribution models (SDMs) were used to predict suitable climate envelopes under historic (1980-1989), current (2010-2019) and future (2070-2079 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios) climate conditions. These models predict that the climate envelope for 92% of studied species has increased since the 1980s, and for 97% and 93% of species under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively, this is predicted to continue, due to extension of the northern range boundary. While any range changes will be moderated by habitat availability, it highlights that Great Britain will likely experience northward shifts of bee populations in the future. By combining spatial and temporal trends, this work provides an important step towards informing conservation measures suitable for future climates, directing how interventions can be provided in the right place at the right time.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chris Wyver
- Centre for Agri‐Environmental Research, School of Agriculture, Policy and DevelopmentUniversity of ReadingReadingUK
| | - Simon G. Potts
- Centre for Agri‐Environmental Research, School of Agriculture, Policy and DevelopmentUniversity of ReadingReadingUK
| | - Mike Edwards
- Bees, Wasps and Ants Recording Society, Leaside, Carron LaneWest SussexUK
| | - Rowan Edwards
- Bees, Wasps and Ants Recording Society, Leaside, Carron LaneWest SussexUK
| | - Deepa Senapathi
- Centre for Agri‐Environmental Research, School of Agriculture, Policy and DevelopmentUniversity of ReadingReadingUK
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3
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Berrilli E, Biondi M, D'Alessandro P, Salvi D. Cryptic, sibling or neither of the two? Integrative species delimitation of
Psylliodes
flea beetles with overlapping ranges. ZOOL SCR 2023. [DOI: 10.1111/zsc.12574] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/04/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Emanuele Berrilli
- Department of Health, Life and Environmental Sciences University of L'Aquila L'Aquila Italy
| | - Maurizio Biondi
- Department of Health, Life and Environmental Sciences University of L'Aquila L'Aquila Italy
| | - Paola D'Alessandro
- Department of Health, Life and Environmental Sciences University of L'Aquila L'Aquila Italy
| | - Daniele Salvi
- Department of Health, Life and Environmental Sciences University of L'Aquila L'Aquila Italy
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Biondi M, D’Alessandro P, Iannella M. Climatic Niche, Altitudinal Distribution, and Vegetation Type Preference of the Flea Beetle Genus Arsipoda in New Caledonia (Coleoptera Chrysomelidae). INSECTS 2022; 14:19. [PMID: 36661947 PMCID: PMC9866635 DOI: 10.3390/insects14010019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2022] [Revised: 12/20/2022] [Accepted: 12/22/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
New Caledonia is one of the major biodiversity hotspots. The flea beetle genus Arsipoda (Coleoptera Chrysomelidae) is present with 21 species, all endemic. We investigated, using GIS analyses and ecological niche models, the habitat preferences of these species in terms of vegetation types, altitude, and climate, and assessed the adequacy of knowledge on the spatial parameters affecting the distribution of the genus in New Caledonia. Altitude and geology seem to play an important role in shaping species distribution. Volcanic substrate allows the growth of ultramafic vegetation, which includes most of their host plants. From a biogeographic and conservation perspective, our results report a deep link between Arsipoda species and their habitats, making them particularly sensitive to environmental modifications.
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Fine-Tuned Ecological Niche Models Unveil Climatic Suitability and Association with Vegetation Groups for Selected Chaetocnema Species in South Africa (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). DIVERSITY 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/d14020100] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
Despite beetles (Coleoptera) representing most existing animal species, the ecological and biogeographical factors shaping their distribution are still unclear in many regions. We implemented state-of-the-art ecological niche models (ENMs) and niche overlap analysis to investigate climate–occurrence patterns for five flea beetle species of the genus Chaetocnema in South Africa (C. brincki, C. danielssoni, C. darwini, C. gahani, and C. natalensis). ENMs were fitted through Maxent and Random Forests, testing various parameterizations. For each species, tuned ENMs attaining good discrimination on spatially independent test data were selected to predict suitability across the study region and individuate its main climatic drivers. Percentage coverage of climatically suitable areas by seventeen Afrotropical vegetation formations was also computed. Predicted suitable areas do not extend far away from known presence localities, except for C. brincki and C. gahani in north-eastern South Africa. Temperate grasslands and shrublands cover most of suitable areas for C. brincki and C. gahani, along with warm temperate forests, as well as for C. danielssoni, in this case being followed by tropical flooded and swamp forests. Climatic suitability for C. darwini mainly relates to the Mediterranean grasslands and scrublands of the southern coastal region, while suitable areas for C. natalensis encompass various vegetation formations, coherently with its wide distribution. The environmental niche of C. danielssoni significantly overlaps with those of the wide-ranging C. darwini and C. natalensis, suggesting that historical factors, rather than low climatic tolerance, has determined its restricted distribution in the Western Cape Province. Maxent and Random Forests were confirmed to be of great help in disentangling the environment–occurrence relationships and in predicting suitability for the target species outside their known range, but they need to be properly tuned to perform at their best.
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6
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Predicting the Potential Distribution of Hylomecon japonica in China under Current and Future Climate Change Based on Maxent Model. SUSTAINABILITY 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/su132011253] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Hylomecon japonica is considered a natural medicinal plant with anti-inflammatory, anticancer and antibacterial activity. The assessment of climate change impact on its habitat suitability is important for the wild cultivation and standardized planting of H. japonica. In this study, the maximum entropy model (Maxent) and geographic information system (ArcGIS) were applied to predict the current and future distribution of H. japonica species, and the contributions of variables were evaluated by using the jackknife test. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value confirmed the accuracy of the model prediction based on 102 occurrence records. The predicted potential distributions of H. japonica were mainly concentrated in Jilin, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Henan, Heilongjiang and other provinces (adaptability index > 0.6). The jackknife experiment showed that the precipitation of driest month (40.5%), mean annual temperature (12.4%), the precipitation of wettest quarter (11.6%) and the subclass of soil (9.7%) were the most important factors affecting the potential distribution of H. japonica. In the future, only under the shared socioeconomic Pathway 245 (SSP 245) scenario model in 2061–2080, the suitable habitat area for H. japonica is expected to show a significant upward trend. The area under other scenarios may not increase or decrease significantly.
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7
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Fathinia B, Rödder D, Rastegar-Pouyani N, Rastegar-Pouyani E, Hosseinzadeh MS, Kazemi SM. The past, current and future habitat range of the Spider-tailed Viper, Pseudocerastes urarachnoides (Serpentes: Viperidae) in western Iran and eastern Iraq as revealed by habitat modelling. ZOOLOGY IN THE MIDDLE EAST 2020. [DOI: 10.1080/09397140.2020.1757910] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/24/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Behzad Fathinia
- Department of Biology, Faculty of Sciences, Yasouj University, Yasouj, Iran
| | - Dennis Rödder
- Zoologisches, Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Bonn, Germany
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8
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Milić D, Radenković S, Radišić D, Andrić A, Nikolić T, Vujić A. Stability and changes in the distribution of Pipiza hoverflies (Diptera, Syrphidae) in Europe under projected future climate conditions. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0221934. [PMID: 31483815 PMCID: PMC6726199 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0221934] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/10/2018] [Accepted: 08/19/2019] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change is now considered a significant threat to terrestrial biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are among the modern tools currently used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species. Pipiza Fallén, 1810 is a well known aphidophagous hoverfly genus (Diptera, Syrphidae) at the European level, for which sampling has been conducted across the region, and long-term databases and geo-referenced datasets have been established. Therefore, in this work, we investigated the potential current distributions of the European species of this genus and their response to future climate change scenarios, as well as evaluated stability in their ranges and potential changes in species-richness patterns. We applied three climate models (BCC_CSM1.1, CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES) to four representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5) for two time frames (2050 and 2070). Our results show that the distribution of most Pipiza species may slightly differ under different climate models. Most Pipiza species were predicted not to be greatly affected by climate change, maintaining their current extent. Percentages of stable areas will remain high (above 50%) for the majority of studied species. According to the predicted turnover of species, northern Europe, could become the richest in terms of species diversity, thus replacing Central Europe as the current hot spot.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dubravka Milić
- University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Biology and Ecology, Novi Sad, Serbia
| | - Snežana Radenković
- University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Biology and Ecology, Novi Sad, Serbia
| | - Dimitrije Radišić
- University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Biology and Ecology, Novi Sad, Serbia
| | | | - Tijana Nikolić
- University of Novi Sad, BioSense Institute, Novi Sad, Serbia
| | - Ante Vujić
- University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Biology and Ecology, Novi Sad, Serbia
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9
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Brunetti M, Magoga G, Iannella M, Biondi M, Montagna M. Phylogeography and species distribution modelling of Cryptocephalusbarii (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae): is this alpine endemic species close to extinction? Zookeys 2019; 856:3-25. [PMID: 31293347 PMCID: PMC6603993 DOI: 10.3897/zookeys.856.32462] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2018] [Accepted: 02/18/2019] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
The alternation of glacial and interglacial cycles of the Quaternary period contributed in shaping the current species distribution. Cold-adapted organisms experienced range expansion and contraction in response to the temperature decrease and increase, respectively. In this study, a fragment of the mitochondrial marker COI was used to investigate the phylogeography of Cryptocephalusbarii, a cold-adapted alpine leaf beetle species endemic of Orobie Alps, northern Italy. The relationships among populations, their divergence time, and the most probable migration model were estimated and are discussed in light of the Pleistocene climate oscillations. Through a species distribution modelling analysis, the current habitat suitability was assessed and the distribution in a future global warming scenario predicted. The main divergence events that led to the actual population structure took place from ~750,000 to ~150,000 years ago, almost following the pattern of the climate oscillations that led to the increase of the connections between the populations during cold periods and the isolation on massifs in warm periods. The most supported migration model suggests that the species survived to past adverse climatic conditions within refugia inside and at the limit of the actual range. The species distribution modelling analysis showed that C.barii is extremely sensitive to air temperature variations, thus the increase of temperature caused by global warming will reduce the suitable areas within the species range, leading to its possible extinction in the next 50 years. Cryptocephalusbarii is a representative case of how cold adapted and limited distributed species have been and could be affected by climate change, that highlights the implementation of conservation actions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matteo Brunetti
- Dipartimento di Scienze Agrarie e Ambientali, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Celoria, 2, 20133 Milan, Italy Università degli Studi di Milano Milan Italy
| | - Giulia Magoga
- Dipartimento di Scienze Agrarie e Ambientali, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Celoria, 2, 20133 Milan, Italy Università degli Studi di Milano Milan Italy
| | - Mattia Iannella
- Dipartimento di Medicina clinica, Sanità pubblica, Scienze della Vita e dell'Ambiente, Università degli Studi dell'Aquila, Via Vetoio, 67100 Coppito, Italy Università degli Studi dell'Aquila Coppito Italy
| | - Maurizio Biondi
- Dipartimento di Medicina clinica, Sanità pubblica, Scienze della Vita e dell'Ambiente, Università degli Studi dell'Aquila, Via Vetoio, 67100 Coppito, Italy Università degli Studi dell'Aquila Coppito Italy
| | - Matteo Montagna
- Dipartimento di Scienze Agrarie e Ambientali, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Celoria, 2, 20133 Milan, Italy Università degli Studi di Milano Milan Italy
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10
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Iannella M, D'Alessandro P, Biondi M. Evidences for a shared history for spectacled salamanders, haplotypes and climate. Sci Rep 2018; 8:16507. [PMID: 30405202 PMCID: PMC6220306 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-34854-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2018] [Accepted: 10/27/2018] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
The so-called glacial refugia, formed during the Pleistocene climatic oscillations, played a major role in shaping the distribution of European species, triggering migrations or isolating populations. Many of these events were recently investigated by genetic data, mainly for the European Last Glacial stage, in the Iberic, Italian and Greek-Balkan peninsulas. The amphibian genus Salamandrina, the most ancient living salamandrid lineage, was widespread in Europe until the climatic oscillations of Miocene probably forced it to shelter in the only suitable territory at that time, the Apennines. Nowadays this genus is endemic of peninsular Italy with two parapatric species, S. perspicillata and S. terdigitata, sharing an area of secondary contact formed after the Last Glacial Maximum. Climate is generally identified as the key factor for the interpretation of genetic data. In this research, we directly measure climate influences on the two Salamandrina known species through Ensemble Modelling techniques and post-modelling GIS analyses, integrating updated genetic data in this process. Our results confirm the hypotheses of southwards (and subsequent northwards) shifts, identify glacial refugia and corridors used for the post-glacial re-colonization. Finally, we map a contact zone deserving more sampling effort to disentangle the introgression and hybridization observed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mattia Iannella
- University of L'Aquila, Department of Health, Life, and Environmental Sciences, L'Aquila, 67100, Italy.
| | - Paola D'Alessandro
- University of L'Aquila, Department of Health, Life, and Environmental Sciences, L'Aquila, 67100, Italy
| | - Maurizio Biondi
- University of L'Aquila, Department of Health, Life, and Environmental Sciences, L'Aquila, 67100, Italy
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11
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D'Alessandro P, Iannella M, Frasca R, Biondi M. Distribution patterns and habitat preference for the genera-group Blepharida s.l. in Sub-Saharan Africa (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae: Galerucinae: Alticini). ZOOL ANZ 2018. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jcz.2018.08.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
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12
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Iannella M, Cerasoli F, D'Alessandro P, Console G, Biondi M. Coupling GIS spatial analysis and Ensemble Niche Modelling to investigate climate change-related threats to the Sicilian pond turtle Emys trinacris, an endangered species from the Mediterranean. PeerJ 2018; 6:e4969. [PMID: 29888141 PMCID: PMC5993018 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.4969] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2018] [Accepted: 05/23/2018] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
The pond turtle Emys trinacris is an endangered endemic species of Sicily showing a fragmented distribution throughout the main island. In this study, we applied "Ensemble Niche Modelling", combining more classical statistical techniques as Generalized Linear Models and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines with machine-learning approaches as Boosted Regression Trees and Maxent, to model the potential distribution of the species under current and future climatic conditions. Moreover, a "gap analysis" performed on both the species' presence sites and the predictions from the Ensemble Models is proposed to integrate outputs from these models, in order to assess the conservation status of this threatened species in the context of biodiversity management. For this aim, four "Representative Concentration Pathways", corresponding to different greenhouse gases emissions trajectories were considered to project the obtained models to both 2050 and 2070. Areas lost, gained or remaining stable for the target species in the projected models were calculated. E. trinacris' potential distribution resulted to be significantly dependent upon precipitation-linked variables, mainly precipitation of wettest and coldest quarter. Future negative effects for the conservation of this species, because of more unstable precipitation patterns and extreme meteorological events, emerged from our analyses. Further, the sites currently inhabited by E. trinacris are, for more than a half, out of the Protected Areas network, highlighting an inadequate management of the species by the authorities responsible for its protection. Our results, therefore, suggest that in the next future the Sicilian pond turtle will need the utmost attention by the scientific community to avoid the imminent risk of extinction. Finally, the gap analysis performed in GIS environment resulted to be a very informative post-modeling technique, potentially applicable to the management of species at risk and to Protected Areas' planning in many contexts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mattia Iannella
- Department of Life, Health & Environmental Sciences, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
| | - Francesco Cerasoli
- Department of Life, Health & Environmental Sciences, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
| | - Paola D'Alessandro
- Department of Life, Health & Environmental Sciences, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
| | - Giulia Console
- Department of Life, Health & Environmental Sciences, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
| | - Maurizio Biondi
- Department of Life, Health & Environmental Sciences, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
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13
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Cerasoli F, Iannella M, D’Alessandro P, Biondi M. Comparing pseudo-absences generation techniques in Boosted Regression Trees models for conservation purposes: A case study on amphibians in a protected area. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0187589. [PMID: 29107997 PMCID: PMC5673221 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0187589] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2016] [Accepted: 10/23/2017] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) is one of the modelling techniques most recently applied to biodiversity conservation and it can be implemented with presence-only data through the generation of artificial absences (pseudo-absences). In this paper, three pseudo-absences generation techniques are compared, namely the generation of pseudo-absences within target-group background (TGB), testing both the weighted (WTGB) and unweighted (UTGB) scheme, and the generation at random (RDM), evaluating their performance and applicability in distribution modelling and species conservation. The choice of the target group fell on amphibians, because of their rapid decline worldwide and the frequent lack of guidelines for conservation strategies and regional-scale planning, which instead could be provided through an appropriate implementation of SDMs. Bufo bufo, Salamandrina perspicillata and Triturus carnifex were considered as target species, in order to perform our analysis with species having different ecological and distributional characteristics. The study area is the "Gran Sasso-Monti della Laga" National Park, which hosts 15 Natura 2000 sites and represents one of the most important biodiversity hotspots in Europe. Our results show that the model calibration ameliorates when using the target-group based pseudo-absences compared to the random ones, especially when applying the WTGB. Contrarily, model discrimination did not significantly vary in a consistent way among the three approaches with respect to the tree target species. Both WTGB and RDM clearly isolate the highly contributing variables, supplying many relevant indications for species conservation actions. Moreover, the assessment of pairwise variable interactions and their three-dimensional visualization further increase the amount of useful information for protected areas' managers. Finally, we suggest the use of RDM as an admissible alternative when it is not possible to individuate a suitable set of species as a representative target-group from which the pseudo-absences can be generated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francesco Cerasoli
- Department of Life, Health & Environmental Sciences, University of L’Aquila, L’Aquila, Italy
| | - Mattia Iannella
- Department of Life, Health & Environmental Sciences, University of L’Aquila, L’Aquila, Italy
| | - Paola D’Alessandro
- Department of Life, Health & Environmental Sciences, University of L’Aquila, L’Aquila, Italy
| | - Maurizio Biondi
- Department of Life, Health & Environmental Sciences, University of L’Aquila, L’Aquila, Italy
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14
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Modeling NDVI Using Joint Entropy Method Considering Hydro-Meteorological Driving Factors in the Middle Reaches of Hei River Basin. ENTROPY 2017. [DOI: 10.3390/e19090502] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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15
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Morales NS, Fernández IC, Baca-González V. MaxEnt's parameter configuration and small samples: are we paying attention to recommendations? A systematic review. PeerJ 2017; 5:e3093. [PMID: 28316894 PMCID: PMC5354112 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.3093] [Citation(s) in RCA: 159] [Impact Index Per Article: 22.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2016] [Accepted: 02/14/2017] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Environmental niche modeling (ENM) is commonly used to develop probabilistic maps of species distribution. Among available ENM techniques, MaxEnt has become one of the most popular tools for modeling species distribution, with hundreds of peer-reviewed articles published each year. MaxEnt's popularity is mainly due to the use of a graphical interface and automatic parameter configuration capabilities. However, recent studies have shown that using the default automatic configuration may not be always appropriate because it can produce non-optimal models; particularly when dealing with a small number of species presence points. Thus, the recommendation is to evaluate the best potential combination of parameters (feature classes and regularization multiplier) to select the most appropriate model. In this work we reviewed 244 articles published between 2013 and 2015 to assess whether researchers are following recommendations to avoid using the default parameter configuration when dealing with small sample sizes, or if they are using MaxEnt as a "black box tool." Our results show that in only 16% of analyzed articles authors evaluated best feature classes, in 6.9% evaluated best regularization multipliers, and in a meager 3.7% evaluated simultaneously both parameters before producing the definitive distribution model. We analyzed 20 articles to quantify the potential differences in resulting outputs when using software default parameters instead of the alternative best model. Results from our analysis reveal important differences between the use of default parameters and the best model approach, especially in the total area identified as suitable for the assessed species and the specific areas that are identified as suitable by both modelling approaches. These results are worrying, because publications are potentially reporting over-complex or over-simplistic models that can undermine the applicability of their results. Of particular importance are studies used to inform policy making. Therefore, researchers, practitioners, reviewers and editors need to be very judicious when dealing with MaxEnt, particularly when the modelling process is based on small sample sizes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Narkis S. Morales
- Department of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Fundación Ecomabi, Santiago, Región Metropolitana, Chile
| | - Ignacio C. Fernández
- Fundación Ecomabi, Santiago, Región Metropolitana, Chile
- Landscape Ecology & Sustainability Laboratory, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States
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