Normal standards for computer-ECG programs for prognostically and diagnostically important ECG variables derived from a large ethnically diverse female cohort: the Women's Health Initiative (WHI)

An ECG-based machine-learning approach for mortality risk assessment in a large European population

AIMS

Through a simple machine learning approach, we aimed to assess the risk of all-cause mortality after 5 years in a European population, based on electrocardiogram (ECG) parameters, age, and sex.

METHODS

The study included patients between 40 and 90 years old who underwent ECG recording between January 2008 and October 2022 in the metropolitan area of Modena, Italy. Exclusion criteria established a patient cohort without severe ECG abnormalities, namely, tachyarrhythmias, bradyarrhythmias, Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome, second- or third- degree AV block, bundle-branch blocks, more than three premature beats, poor signal quality, and presence of pacemakers and implantable cardioverter- defibrillators. Mortality was assessed using a set of logistic regression models, differentiated by age group, to which the Akaike Information Criterion was applied. Model fitting was evaluated using confusion matrix-related performance metrics, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and the predictive significance against the no-information rate (NIR).

RESULTS

53692 patients were enrolled, of whom 14353 (26.73 %) died within 5 years of ECG registration. The logistic regression model distinguished between those who died and those who survived based on the predicted mortality probability for all age groups, obtaining a significant difference between the predicted mortality and the NIR in 14 of the 55 age groups. Good accuracy and performance metrics were observed, resulting in an average AUC of 0.779.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed model showed a good predictive performance in patients without severe ECG abnormalities. Therefore, this study highlights the potential of ECGs as prognostic rather than diagnostic tools.

Capillary Blood Docosahexaenoic Acid Levels Predict Electrocardiographic Markers in a Sample Population of Premenopausal Women

Introduction: The relationship between blood N-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) levels and cardiovascular health is known, but direct evidence that N-3 PUFA levels influence electrocardiographic (ECG) parameters is non-existent. In the study described herein, we investigated the relationship between anthropometric biomarkers and capillary blood PUFAs with ECG outputs in a sample population of healthy pre-menopausal women. Method: Twenty-three consenting females were recruited, with the study power analysis sufficiently demonstrated. Food intake, anthropometric and cardiovascular parameters were obtained. Capillary blood was collected for fatty acid chromatographic analysis. Results: Body mass index, haematocrit, heart rate (HR), mean arterial pressure (MAP) and ECG readings all fell within healthy ranges. Principal component analysis-mediated correlations were carried out controlling for combined Components 1 (age, body fat % and waist-to-hip ratio) and 2 (height, HR and MAP) as control variables. Docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) unequivocally decreased the QRS area under the curve (AUC-QRS) regardless of the impact of control variables, with each unit increase in DHA corresponding to a 2.3-unit decrease in AUC-QRS. Mediation analysis revealed a significant overall effect of DHA on AUC-QRS, with the impact of DHA on R wave amplitude accounting for 77% of the total observed effect. Discussion: Our new findings revealed an inverse relationship between AUC-QRS with capillary blood DHA, suggesting that the association between ventricular mass and its QRS depolarising voltage is mediated by DHA. Our findings bridge a knowledge gap on the relationship between ventricular mass and ventricular efficiency. Further research will confirm whether the relationship identified in our study also exists in diseased patients.

Combined Effects of Age and Comorbidities on Electrocardiographic Parameters in a Large Non-Selected Population

Background: Previous studies have evaluated average electrocardiographic (ECG) values in healthy subjects or specific subpopulations. However, none have evaluated ECG average values in not selected populations, so we examined ECG changes with respect to age and sex in a large primary population. Methods: From digitized ECG stored from 2008 to 2021 in the Modena province, 130,471 patients were enrolled. Heart rate, P, QRS and T wave axis, P, QRS and T wave duration, PR interval, QTc, and frontal QRS-T angle were evaluated. Results: All ECG parameters showed a dependence on age, but only some of them with a straight-line correlation: QRS axis (p < 0.001, R2 = 0.991, r = 0.996), PR interval (p < 0.001, R2 = 0.978, r = 0.989), QTc (p < 0.001, R2 = 0.935, r = 0.967), and, in over 51.5 years old, QRS-T angle (p < 0.001, R2 = 0.979, r = 0.956). Differences between females and males and in different clinical settings were observed. Conclusions: ECG changes with ageing are explainable by intrinsic modifications of the heart and thorax and with the appearance of cardiovascular diseases and comorbidities. Age-related reference values were computed and applicable in clinical practice. Significant deviations from mean values and from Z-scores should be investigated.

Clinical Associations between Serial Electrocardiography Measurements and Sudden Cardiac Death in Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease Undergoing Hemodialysis

The rate of sudden cardiac death (SCD) for hemodialysis (HD) patients is significantly higher than that observed in the general population and have the highest risk for arrhythmogenic death. In this multi-center study, patients starting hemodialysis in each hospital were enrolled; they underwent regular check-ups in an open-patient clinic. We examined serial electrocardiography (ECG) data in patients undergoing HD and determined their associations with the occurrence of SCD. Of 678 enrolled subjects who underwent serial ECG before and after hemodialysis, 291 died and 39 developed SCD. In all subjects, the QT peak-to-end (QTpe) interval at all leads and QRS duration were shortened after hemodialysis. The SCD group showed a significant change in the QTpe interval of the inferior, anterior, and lateral leads before and after hemodialysis compared with the survivor group (p < 0.001). In the pre-hemodialysis ECG, SCD patients had significantly longer QTpe intervals in all leads (p < 0.001) and a longer QRS duration (92.6 ± 14.0 vs. 100.6 ± 14.9 ms, p = 0.015) than survivors. In conclusion, patients with a longer QTpe interval before hemodialysis and large changes in ECG parameters after hemodialysis might be at a higher risk of SCD. Therefore, changes in the ECG before and after hemodialysis could help to predict SCD.

Predictive value of Tpeak-Tend interval for ventricular arrhythmia and mortality in heart failure patients with an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

Tpeak-Tend interval (TpTe), a measurement of transmural dispersion of repolarization (TDR), has been shown to predict ventricular tachyarrhythmia in cardiac resynchronization therapy with defibrillator (CRT-D) patients. However, the ability of TpTe to predict ventricular tachyarrhythmia and mortality for heart failure patients with a cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) is not clear. The purpose of this study was to assess the predictive ability of TpTe in heart failure patients with ICD.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We enrolled 318 heart failure patients treated after ICD. Patients were divided into 3 groups according to their post-implantation TpTe values and were evaluated every 6 months. The primary endpoint was appropriate ICD therapy. The secondary endpoint was all-cause mortality. During long-term follow-up, the TpTe > 110 ms group (n = 111) experienced more VT/VF episodes (45%) and all-cause mortality (25.2%) than the TpTe 90-110 ms group (n = 109) (26.4%, 14.5%) and TpTe < 90 ms group (n = 98) (11.3%, 11.3%) (overall P < .05, respectively). In Cox regression, longer post-implantation TpTe was associated with an increased number of VT/VF episodes [HR: 1.017; 95% CI: 1.008-1.026; P < .001], all-cause mortality [HR: 1.015; 95% CI: 1.004-1.027; P = .010] and the combined endpoint [HR: 1.018; 95%CI: 1.010-1.026; P < .001].

CONCLUSIONS

Post-implantation TpTe was an independent predictor of both ventricular arrhythmias and all-cause mortality in heart failure patients with an implanted ICD.

A Comparison of the Effect of Sevoflurane and Propofol on Ventricular Repolarisation after Preoperative Cefuroxime Infusion

The aim of this study is to investigate the changes in QT, QTc, and Tp-e intervals and Tp-e/QT ratio on surface electrocardiogram (ECG) signals during anaesthesia induction using propofol or sevoflurane after preoperative cefuroxime infusion. Some 120 cases of gynaecological patients are randomly divided into propofol (P) and sevoflurane (S) groups (n=60). After cefuroxime (1.5 g) was infused in the two groups of patients, propofol target controlled infusion (TCI) was conducted in the P group for 5 min to realise a plasma concentration of 4 μg/ml while patients in the S group inhaled anaesthesia by infusing 1.3 MAC sevoflurane for 6 min. The 12-lead ECGs were separately collected before infusing cefuroxime (T₁), after infusing cefuroxime (T₂), and after infusing propofol or sevoflurane (T₃) to measure QT and Tp-e intervals, calculate QTc and Tp-e/QT, and record MAP and HR. Finally, we demonstrated that QT, QTc, and Tp-e intervals and Tp-e/QT ratio had no change (P > 0.05) after cefuroxime infusion in the two groups of patients compared with that before infusing antibiotics. Moreover, after conducting preoperative cefuroxime infusion, using propofol and sevoflurane had no influence on Tp-e interval, but sevoflurane can significantly prolong QT and QTc intervals (P < 0.05).

Optimal method of measuring the T-peak to T-end interval for risk stratification in primary prevention

Aims

Several published investigations demonstrated that a longer T-peak to T-end interval (Tpe) implies increased risk for ventricular tachyarrhythmia (VT/VF) and mortality. Tpe has been measured using diverse methods. We aimed to determine the optimal Tpe measurement method for screening purposes.

Methods and results

We evaluated 305 patients with LVEF ≤ 35% and an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implanted for primary prevention. Tpe was measured using seven different methods described in the literature, including six manual methods and the automated algorithm '12SL', and was corrected for heart rate. Endpoints were VT/VF and death. To account for differences in the magnitude of Tpe measurements, results are expressed in standard deviation (SD) increments. We evaluated the clinical utility of each measurement method based on predictive ability, fraction of immeasurable tracings, and intra- and interobserver correlation. >Over 31 ± 23 months, 82 (27%) patients had VT/VF, and over 49 ± 21 months, 91 (30%) died. Several rate-corrected Tpe measurement methods predicted VT/VF (HR per SD 1.20-1.34; all P < 0.05), and nearly all methods (both corrected and uncorrected) predicted death (HR per SD 1.19-1.35; all P < 0.05). Optimal predictive ability, readability, and correlation were found in the automated 12SL method and the manual tangent method in lead V2.

Conclusion

For the prediction of VT/VF, the utility of Tpe depends upon the measurement method, but for the prediction of mortality, most published Tpe measurement methods are similarly predictive. Heart rate correction improves predictive ability. The automated 12SL method performs as well as any manual measurement, and among manual methods, lead V2 is most useful.

TpTe and TpTe/QT: novel markers to predict sudden cardiac death in ESRD?

INTRODUCTION

Reliable markers to predict sudden cardiac death (SCD) in patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD) remain elusive, but electrocardiogram (ECG) parameters may help stratify patients. Given their roles as markers for myocardial dispersion especially in high risk populations such as those with Brugada syndrome, we hypothesized that the Tpeak to Tend (TpTe) interval and TpTe/QT are independent risk factors for SCD in ESRD.

METHODS

Retrospective chart review was conducted on a cohort of patients with ESRD starting hemodialysis. Patients were US veterans who utilized the Veterans Affairs medical centers for health care. Average age of all participants was 66 years and the majority were males, consistent with a US veteran population. ECGs that were performed within 18 months of dialysis initiation were manually evaluated for TpTe and TpTe/QT. The primary outcomes were SCD and all-cause mortality, and these were assessed up to 5 years following dialysis initiation.

RESULTS

After exclusion criteria, 205 patients were identified, of whom 94 had a prolonged TpTe, and 61 had a prolonged TpTe/QT interval (not mutually exclusive). Overall mortality was 70.2% at 5 years and SCD was 15.2%. No significant difference was observed in the primary outcomes when examining TpTe (SCD: prolonged 16.0% vs. normal 14.4%, p=0.73; all-cause mortality: prolonged 55.3% vs. normal 47.7%, p=0.43). Likewise, no significant difference was found for TpTe/QT (SCD: prolonged 15.4% vs. normal 15.0%, p=0.51; all-cause mortality: prolonged 80.7% vs. normal 66.7%, p=0.39).

CONCLUSIONS

In ESRD patients on hemodialysis, prolonged TpTe or TpTe/QT was not associated with a significant increase in SCD or all-cause mortality.

Prognostic Value of a New Marker of Ventricular Repolarization in Cirrhotic Patients

Background

There is still debate about the relationship between changes in ventricular repolarization on the surface electrocardiogram and cirrhosis severity.

Objective

To study the relationship between variables related to ventricular repolarization and the clinical severity of the cirrhotic disease.

Methods

We selected 79 individuals with hepatic cirrhosis, classified according to the Child-Pugh-Turcotte criteria (Child A, B, and C). We measured the QT and corrected QT (QTc) intervals, and the interval between the peak and the end of the T wave (TpTe), and we identified their minimum, maximum, and mean values in the 12-lead electrocardiogram. We also calculated the dispersion of the QT (DQT) and QTc (DQTc) intervals.

Results

In 12 months of clinical follow-up, nine subjects underwent hepatic transplantation (Child A: 0 [0%]; Child B: 6 [23.1%]; Child C: 3 [18.8%]; p = 0.04) and 12 died (Child A: 3 [12.0%]; Child B: 4 [15.4%]; Child C: 5 [31.3%]; p = 0.002). No significant differences were observed between the cirrhotic groups related to the minimum, maximum, and mean values for the QT, QTc, TpTe, DQT, and DQTc intervals. A minimum TpTe interval ≤ 50 ms was a predictor for the composite endpoints of death or liver transplantation with a sensitivity of 90% and a specificity of 57% (p = 0.005). In the Cox multivariate analysis, the Child groups and a minimum TpTe of ≤ 50 ms were independent predictors of the composite endpoints.

Conclusion

The intervals QT, QTc, DQT, DQTc, and TpTe have similar distributions between different severity stages in cirrhotic disease. The TpTe interval proved to be a prognostic marker in subjects with cirrhosis, regardless of disease severity (NCT01433848).

Population-based values and abnormalities of the electrocardiogram in the general Dutch population: The LifeLines Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Our aim is to present average values and prevalence of electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities among the general Dutch population in the LifeLines Cohort.

HYPOTHESIS

The ECG values previously studied in the Caucasian population of smaller cohorts will be confirmed with ECG data from LifeLines.

METHODS

ECG data of 152 180 individuals age 18 to 93 years were available. Individuals with cardiovascular risk factors were excluded to analyze the healthy population. Average values of the ECG for the healthy population were presented as means with 95% and 99% confidence intervals and as medians with first and 99th percentiles.

RESULTS

Median heart rate was highest in the youngest and oldest individuals of the healthy population. Median duration of P wave, PQ interval, and QRS duration were longer in males compared with females. In contrast, median QT interval corrected for heart rate was higher in females. In general, the above-mentioned parameters increased with age. The prevalences of ECG abnormalities adjusted for the Dutch population were 0.9% for atrial fibrillation or flutter, 1.4% for premature atrial complexes, 0.5% for myocardial infarction, 2.1% for ventricular premature complexes, 1.0% for left ventricular hypertrophy, 8.1% for P-R interval >200 ms, and 0.8% for bundle branch block.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides an overview of average values and ECG abnormalities and confirms data of previous smaller studies. In addition, we evaluate the age- and sex-dependent normal limits of the P wave and QRS duration and confirm in detail the frontal plane QRS-T angle on the ECG.

Tpeak-to-Tend interval corrected for heart rate: A more precise measure of increased sudden death risk?

BACKGROUND

The Tpeak to Tend (Tpe) interval on the 12-lead electrocardiogram predicts an increased risk of sudden cardiac arrest (SCA). There is controversy over whether Tpe would be more useful if corrected for heart rate (Tpec).

OBJECTIVES

We evaluated whether the predictive value of Tpe for SCA improves with heart rate correction and sought to determine an optimal cutoff value for Tpec in the context of SCA risk.

METHODS

Cases of SCA (n = 628; mean age 66.4 ± 14.5 years; n = 416, 66.2% men) from the Oregon Sudden Unexpected Death Study with an archived electrocardiogram available prior and unrelated to the SCA event were analyzed. Comparisons were made with control subjects (n = 819; mean age 66.7 ± 11.5 years; n = 559, 68.2% men). The Tpe interval was corrected for heart rate using Bazett (TpecBa) and Fridericia (TpecFd) formulas, and the predictive value of Tpec for SCA was evaluated using logistic regression models.

RESULTS

The area under the curve for Tpec predicting SCA improved with both correction formulas. TpecBa and TpecFd were shown to have an area under the curve of 0.695 and 0.672, respectively, as compared with a baseline of 0.601 with an uncorrected Tpe. A TpecBa value of >90 ms was predictive of SCA, independent of age, sex, comorbidities, QRS duration, corrected QT interval, and severely reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (≤35%; odds ratio 2.8; 95% confidence interval 1.92-4.17; P < .0001).

CONCLUSION

Correcting Tpe for heart rate, using either the Bazett or the Fridericia formula, improved the independent predictive value of this marker for the assessment of SCA risk. Prolongation of TpecBa beyond 90 ms was associated with a nearly 3-fold increased risk of SCA.

T-peak to T-end interval for prediction of ventricular tachyarrhythmia and mortality in a primary prevention population with systolic cardiomyopathy

BACKGROUND

The electrocardiographic T-wave peak to T-wave end interval (Tpe) correlates with dispersion of ventricular repolarization (DVR). Increased DVR increases propensity toward electrical reentry that can cause ventricular tachyarrhythmia. The baseline rate-corrected Tpe (Tpec) has been shown to predict ventricular tachyarrhythmia and death in multiple patient populations but not among cardiomyopathic patients undergoing insertion of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) for primary prevention.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to assess the risk stratification ability of the Tpec in patients with systolic cardiomyopathy without prior ventricular tachyarrhythmia (ie, the primary prevention population).

METHODS

We performed prospective follow-up of 305 patients (73% men; left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] 23 ± 7%) with LVEF ≤35% and an ICD implanted for primary prevention. Baseline ECGs were analyzed with automated algorithms. Endpoints were ventricular tachycardia (VT)/ventricular fibrillation (VF), death, and a combined endpoint of VT/VF or death, assessed by device follow-up and Social Security Death Index query.

RESULTS

The average Tpec was 107 ± 22 ms. During device clinic follow-up of 31 ± 23 months, 82 patients (27%) had appropriate ICD therapy for VT/VF, and during mortality follow-up of 49 ± 21 months, 91 patients (30%) died. On univariable analysis, Tpec predicted VT/VF, death, and the combined endpoint of VT/VF or death (P < .05 for each endpoint). Multivariable analysis included univariable predictors among demographics, clinical data, laboratory data, medications used, and electrocardiography parameters. After correction, Tpec remained predictive of VT/VF (hazard ratio [HR] per 10-ms increase 1.16, P = .009), all-cause mortality (HR per 10 ms 1.13, P = .05), and the combined endpoint (HR per 10 ms 1.17, P = .001).

CONCLUSION

Tpec independently predicts both VT/VF and overall mortality in patients with systolic dysfunction and ICDs implanted for primary prevention.

Race- and sex-associated differences in rate-adjusted QT, QTpeak, ST elevation and other regional measures of repolarization: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

BACKGROUND

Data are limited about race-and sex-associated differences in prognostically important ECG measures of regional repolarization.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The normal reference group from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study included 8,676 white and African-American men and women aged 40-65 years. Exclusion criteria included cardiovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes and major ECG abnormalities. Notable sex differences (p<0.001) were observed in the upper 98% limits for rate-adjusted QTend (QTea) which was 435 ms in white and African-American men and 445 ms in white and African-American women, and for left ventricular epicardial repolarization time (RTepi) which was 345 ms in white and African-American men and 465 ms in white and African-American women. These sex differences reflect earlier onset and end of repolarization in men than in women. Upper normal limits for STJ amplitude in V2-V3 were 100 μV in white and African-American women, 150 μV in white men and 200 μV in African-American men (p<0.001 for sex differences), and for other chest leads, aVL and aVF 50 μV in white women, 100 μV in African-American women, 100 μV in white men and 150 μV in African-American men (p<0.001 for sex and race differences).

CONCLUSIONS

Shorter QTea and RTepi in men than in women reflect earlier onset and end of repolarization in men. STJ amplitudes in African-American men were higher than in other subgroups by race and sex. These sex and race differences need to be considered in clinical and epidemiological applications of normal standards.