Detection capacity, information gaps and the design of surveillance programs for invasive forest pests

Managing uncertainty in decision-making for conservation science

Science-based decision-making is the ideal. However, scientific knowledge is incomplete, and sometimes wrong. Responsible science-based policy, planning, and action must exploit knowledge while managing uncertainty. I considered the info-gap method to manage deep uncertainty surrounding knowledge that is used for decision-making in conservation. A central concept is satisficing, which means satisfying a critical requirement. Alternative decisions are prioritized based on their robustness to uncertainty, and critical outcome requirements are satisficed. Robustness is optimized; outcome is satisficed. This is called robust satisficing. A decision with a suboptimal outcome may be preferred over a decision with a putatively optimal outcome if the former can more robustly achieve an acceptable outcome. Many biodiversity conservation applications employ info-gap theory, under which parameter uncertainty but not uncertainty in functional relations is considered. I considered info-gap models of functional uncertainty, widely used outside of conservation science, as applied to conservation of a generic endangered species by translocation to a new region. I focused on 2 uncertainties: the future temperature is uncertain due to climate change, and the shape of the reproductive output function is uncertain due to translocation to an unfamiliar region. The value of new information is demonstrated based on the robustness function, and the info-gap opportuneness function demonstrates the potential for better-than-anticipated outcomes.

Prioritizing conserved areas threatened by wildfire and fragmentation for monitoring and management

In many parts of the world, the combined effects of habitat fragmentation and altered disturbance regimes pose a significant threat to biodiversity. This is particularly true in Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs), which tend to be fire-prone, species rich, and heavily impacted by human land use. Given the spatial complexity of overlapping threats and species’ vulnerability along with limited conservation budgets, methods are needed for prioritizing areas for monitoring and management in these regions. We developed a multi-criteria Pareto ranking methodology for prioritizing spatial units for conservation and applied it to fire threat, habitat fragmentation threat, species richness, and genetic biodiversity criteria in San Diego County, California, USA. We summarized the criteria and Pareto ranking results (from west to east) within the maritime, coastal, transitional, inland climate zones within San Diego County. Fire threat increased from the maritime zone eastward to the transitional zone, then decreased in the mountainous inland climate zone. Number of fires and fire return interval departure were strongly negatively correlated. Fragmentation threats, particularly road density and development density, were highest in the maritime climate zone, declined towards the east, and were positively correlated. Species richness criteria showed distributions among climate zones similar to those of the fire threat variables. When using species richness and fire threat criteria, most lower-ranked (higher conservation priority) units occurred in the coastal and transitional zones. When considering genetic biodiversity, lower-ranked units occurred more often in the mountainous inland zone. With Pareto ranking, there is no need to select criteria weights as part of the decision-making process. However, negative correlations and larger numbers of criteria can result in more units assigned to the same rank. Pareto ranking is broadly applicable and can be used as a standalone decision analysis method or in conjunction with other methods.

Sirex woodwasp: a model for evolving management paradigms of invasive forest pests

The Sirex woodwasp, Sirex noctilio, and its fungal mutualist, Amylostereum areolatum, together constitute one of the most damaging invasive pests of pine. Despite a century of research and well-established management programs, control remains unpredictable and spread continues to new areas. Variable success in managing this pest has been influenced by complex invasion patterns, the multilayered nature of biological interactions, the varying local ecologies, and microevolutionary population processes in both the biocontrol organisms and in the wasps. Recent research findings are challenging the historical perspectives on methods to manage the Sirex woodwasp, calling for management programs to incorporate the variable local dynamics affecting this pest complex. In this regard, the Sirex woodwasp provides a superb model to illustrate the need for a different approach to develop efficient and sustainable management tools to deal with the growing and global nature of pest invasions in forests and plantations.

Host use patterns by the European woodwasp, Sirex noctilio, in its native and invaded range

Accelerating introductions of forest insects challenge decision-makers who might or might not respond with surveillance programs, quarantines, eradication efforts, or biological control programs. Comparing ecological controls on indigenous vs. introduced populations could inform responses to new introductions. We studied the European woodwasp, Sirex noctilio, which is not a pest in its native forests, is a serious invasive pest in the southern hemisphere, and now has an uncertain future in North America after its introduction there. Indigenous populations of S. noctilio (in Galicia, Spain) resembled those in New York in that S. noctilio were largely restricted to suppressed trees that were also dying for other reasons, and still only some dying trees showed evidence of S. noctilio: 20–40% and 35–51% in Galicia and New York, respectively. In both areas, P. sylvestris (native to Europe) was the species most likely to have attacks in non-suppressed trees. P. resinosa, native to North America, does not appear dangerously susceptible to S. noctilio. P. radiata, which sustains high damage in the southern hemisphere, is apparently not innately susceptible because in Galicia it was less often used by native S. noctilio than either native pine (P. pinaster and P. sylvestris). Silvicultural practices in Galicia that maintain basal area at 25–40 m²/ha limit S. noctilio abundance. More than 25 species of other xylophagous insects feed on pine in Galicia, but co-occurrences with S. noctilio were infrequent, so strong interspecific competition seemed unlikely. Evidently, S. noctilio in northeastern North America will be more similar to indigenous populations in Europe, where it is not a pest, than to introduced populations in the southern hemisphere, where it is. However, S. noctilio populations could behave differently when they reach forests of the southeastern U.S., where tree species, soils, climate, ecology, management, and landscape configurations of pine stands are different.

A new multicriteria risk mapping approach based on a multiattribute frontier concept

Invasive species risk maps provide broad guidance on where to allocate resources for pest monitoring and regulation, but they often present individual risk components (such as climatic suitability, host abundance, or introduction potential) as independent entities. These independent risk components are integrated using various multicriteria analysis techniques that typically require prior knowledge of the risk components' importance. Such information is often nonexistent for many invasive pests. This study proposes a new approach for building integrated risk maps using the principle of a multiattribute efficient frontier and analyzing the partial order of elements of a risk map as distributed in multidimensional criteria space. The integrated risks are estimated as subsequent multiattribute frontiers in dimensions of individual risk criteria. We demonstrate the approach with the example of Agrilus biguttatus Fabricius, a high-risk pest that may threaten North American oak forests in the near future. Drawing on U.S. and Canadian data, we compare the performance of the multiattribute ranking against a multicriteria linear weighted averaging technique in the presence of uncertainties, using the concept of robustness from info-gap decision theory. The results show major geographic hotspots where the consideration of tradeoffs between multiple risk components changes integrated risk rankings. Both methods delineate similar geographical regions of high and low risks. Overall, aggregation based on a delineation of multiattribute efficient frontiers can be a useful tool to prioritize risks for anticipated invasive pests, which usually have an extremely poor prior knowledge base.

Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management

Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of threatened and endangered species. The PDA approach demonstrates the advantages of integrated, top-down management, versus bottom-up management approaches.

Mapping forest composition from the Canadian National Forest Inventory and land cover classification maps

Canada's National Forest Inventory (CanFI) provides coarse-grained, aggregated information on a large number of forest attributes. Though reasonably well suited for summary reporting on national forest resources, the coarse spatial nature of this data limits its usefulness in modeling applications that require information on forest composition at finer spatial resolutions. An alternative source of information is the land cover classification produced by the Canadian Forest Service as part of its Earth Observation for Sustainable Development of Forests (EOSD) initiative. This product, which is derived from Landsat satellite imagery, provides relatively high resolution coverage, but only very general information on forest composition (such as conifer, mixedwood, and deciduous). Here we link the CanFI and EOSD products using a spatial randomization technique to distribute the forest composition information in CanFI to the forest cover classes in EOSD. The resultant geospatial coverages provide randomized predictions of forest composition, which incorporate the fine-scale spatial detail of the EOSD product and agree in general terms with the species composition summaries from the original CanFI estimates. We describe the approach and provide illustrative results for selected major commercial tree species in Canada.

Estimating the influence of population density and dispersal behavior on the ability to detect and monitor Agrilus planipennis (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) populations

Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), a phloem-feeding pest of ash (Fraxinus spp.) trees native to Asia, was first discovered in North America in 2002. Since then, A. planipennis has been found in 15 states and two Canadian provinces and has killed tens of millions of ash trees. Understanding the probability of detecting and accurately delineating low density populations of A. planipennis is a key component of effective management strategies. Here we approach this issue by 1) quantifying the efficiency of sampling nongirdled ash trees to detect new infestations of A. planipennis under varying population densities and 2) evaluating the likelihood of accurately determining the localized spread of discrete A. planipennis infestations. To estimate the probability a sampled tree would be detected as infested across a gradient of A. planipennis densities, we used A. planipennis larval density estimates collected during intensive surveys conducted in three recently infested sites with known origins. Results indicated the probability of detecting low density populations by sampling nongirdled trees was very low, even when detection tools were assumed to have three-fold higher detection probabilities than nongirdled trees. Using these results and an A. planipennis spread model, we explored the expected accuracy with which the spatial extent of an A. planipennis population could be determined. Model simulations indicated a poor ability to delineate the extent of the distribution of localized A. planipennis populations, particularly when a small proportion of the population was assumed to have a higher propensity for dispersal.

Community composition and phenology of native Siricidae (Hymenoptera) attracted to semiochemicals in Minnesota

As a result of the introduction of Sirex noctilio F. into North America, there has been increased interest in the poorly-described native Siricidae communities. To date, few studies have surveyed specifically for Siricidae, and many reports of native siricid populations are byproducts of sampling efforts targeting Coleoptera. We report results from a survey targeted specifically at native and exotic Siricidae in Minnesota. We used Lindgren funnel traps from 2006 to 2008 baited with α/β-pinene (Sirex lure), ethanol (EtOH), EtOH + α-pinene, or Ips 3-part lures. We captured 704 native Siricidae comprising seven species, of which none were exotic. To our knowledge, this is one of the largest field collections of Siricidae from a single discrete set of localities in existence. Adult Siricidae began flying in June and continued into October each year. The α/β-pinene lure was most effective, but the EtOH + α-pinene lure was also moderately effective. We compare our data with those from several states and provinces in the Great Lakes Region of North America. Our data provide insight into the community composition of native Siricidae in Minnesota, while concurrently providing evidence that S. noctilio populations have not yet reached this far into the continental United States.