Forest wildfire, fuel reduction treatments, and landscape carbon stocks: a sensitivity analysis

Effects of prescribed fire frequency on wildfire emissions and carbon sequestration in a fire adapted ecosystem using a comprehensive carbon model

Prescribed fire to reduce forest fuels has been routinely applied to reduce wildfire risk in many parts of the world. It has also been proposed that prescribed fire can be used to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Although prescribed fire creates emissions, if the treatment also decreases the incidence of subsequent wildfires, it is possible for the net outcome to be an emissions decline. Previous studies have suggested prescribed fire, at the frequencies required to materially impact wildfire occurrence, generally leads to net emissions increases. A focus on emissions means any change in carbon storage within the ecosystem remains unaccounted for; because living, dead, and soil carbon pools are characterized by different residence times, a re-distribution of carbon amongst these pools may either reduce or increase long-term ecosystem carbon stores. A full ecosystem carbon model has been developed to investigate the implications of prescribed fire management on total Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance (NECB), inclusive of both emissions and carbon storage. Consistent with previous work, the results suggested limited potential for reducing net GHG emissions through applying prescribed fire, with higher emissions from prescribed fire approximately offset by lower emissions and avoided carbon losses from the subsequent reduction in wildfire frequency. For example, shortening the prescribed fire interval from 25 to 10 years resulted in a NECB sequestration that was typically less than ±0.4 Mg C ha^-1 yr^-1, or less than approximately 0.1% of the total ecosystem carbon storage. Hence, whilst there was limited opportunity for achieving emission abatement outcomes from changing prescribed fire management, there were no significant emission penalties for doing so. These results suggest land managers should be free to adopt prescribed fire regimes to target specific management outcomes, without significantly impacting net emissions or total ecosystem carbon storage over the long term.

Interactive effects of environmental change and management strategies on regional forest carbon emissions

Climate mitigation activities in forests need to be quantified in terms of the long-term effects on forest carbon stocks, accumulation, and emissions. The impacts of future environmental change and bioenergy harvests on regional forest carbon storage have not been quantified. We conducted a comprehensive modeling study and life-cycle assessment of the impacts of projected changes in climate, CO2 concentration, and N deposition, and region-wide forest management policies on regional forest carbon fluxes. By 2100, if current management strategies continue, then the warming and CO2 fertilization effect in the given projections result in a 32-68% increase in net carbon uptake, overshadowing increased carbon emissions from projected increases in fire activity and other forest disturbance factors. To test the response to new harvesting strategies, repeated thinnings were applied in areas susceptible to fire to reduce mortality, and two clear-cut rotations were applied in productive forests to provide biomass for wood products and bioenergy. The management strategies examined here lead to long-term increased carbon emissions over current harvesting practices, although semiarid regions contribute little to the increase. The harvest rates were unsustainable. This comprehensive approach could serve as a foundation for regional place-based assessments of management effects on future carbon sequestration by forests in other locations.