Impacts of cropland expansion on carbon storage: A case study in Hubei, China

Identifying and monitoring of abandoned farmland in key agricultural production areas on the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau: A case study of the Huangshui Basin

Curbing the continuous abandonment of large areas of farmland is important for meeting the global food demand and promoting agricultural and rural development. Accurate identification is the key to the effective management and utilization of abandoned farmland. The identification of abandoned land based on a long time series of remote sensing data has become rapid and effective. Therefore, a set of training and test datasets generated from invariant samples and reference sample sets is established in this paper. On this basis, the Google Earth Engine (GEE) is used to classify Landsat and Sentinel high-precision long-term remote sensing images from 2000 to 2022. In addition, a change detector based on the sliding window algorithm is proposed to extract abandoned farmland in the Huangshui Basin from 2002 to 2020, and the intensity, trend, frequency, reclamation rate and utilization efficiency are analyzed. The results revealed that the OA of land use classification in the Huangshui Basin from 2000 to 2022 was between 0.852 and 0.91, and the kappa coefficient was between 0.822 and 0.89, indicating a good classification effect. From 2002 to 2020, the accumulated abandoned farmland area in the Huangshui Basin continued to increase, showing a fluctuating upward trend, and the phenomenon of farmland abandonment and reclamation occurs repeatedly in some areas. From the overall distribution, the abandoned area gradually increased from the central region to the southeast. With the passage of time, the amount of abandoned farmland in the valley increased gradually, and the abandoned area was transferred from the high mountains to the valley area. The average annual abandonment rate of supplementary farmland was 50.45%, which was much greater than that of basic farmland. Most of the supplementary farmland could not be effectively and judiciously used, and the utilization efficiency was low. The research results provide data support for the reuse of abandoned farmland in ecologically fragile plateau areas, the formulation of targeted strategies, the implementation of timely adjustments, and the establishment of new ideas and methods for the accurate identification of abandoned farmland.

Driving model of land use change on the evolution of carbon stock: a case study of Chongqing, China

Terrestrialecosystems are significant carbon sinks and are crucial for understanding the regional and global carbon cycles, energy flow, and climate change. As land use change is a significant process affecting ecosystem carbon stocks and striving for land degradation neutrality (LDN), studying it is essential for comprehending the evolution of regional carbon sink functions and achieving sustainable development goals. The drastically diverse land use patterns in each of the study area's regions resulted in significant differences in carbon stock. This study explores the evolution traits of carbon stocks based on land use data and their driving mechanisms in Chongqing during the past 30 years by using spatial analysis, the InVEST model, and geographic probes. The results demonstrate that from 1990 to 2020, land degradation in Chongqing was made worse by the demand for land for construction land, but the strategy of converting cropland back to forests raised the carbon stock of forest land. The overall result is a decrease in total carbon stocks of 5.1078 Tg or 1.5%. The main pathway for carbon loss pathway in the evolution of carbon stock is the conversion of cropland to construction land, and the primary carbon compensation pathway is the conversion of grassland and cropland to forest land, with a spatial distribution characterized by "higher in the whole area and obvious local differences." The land use intensity index has the most significant influence on the evolution of carbon stock. Moreover, the interaction of pairwise factors played a more important role in affecting the evolution of carbon stocks than did each factor individually. The case study in this paper shows that land use change is a significant driving mechanism for the evolution of carbon stock, and the development of a driving model theory is appropriate for deciphering the trajectory of carbon stock evolution and offering research suggestions for other regions.

The impact of teleconnections of built-up land on regional carbon burden under the shared socio-economic pathways

The expansion of built-up land is currently being increasingly triggered by remote demand, thus disturbing the local process of carbon neutrality significantly. It is meaningful to understand the relations between regional development and carbon balance. To this end, we combine the multi-regional input-output model with the land system cellular automata model for potential effects (LANDSCAPE) to illustrate the impact that regional development has on the carbon burden. The results show that the expansion of built-up land results in a regional carbon burden through taking over ecological land and generating carbon emissions, to which the manufacturing industry land is the largest contributor. Regionally, developed regions exert the greatest influences on the changes in the regional carbon burden, mainly because the promotion of their development leads to the expansion of built-up land in all regions. Developing regions can impact undeveloped regions and themselves, while it is hard for undeveloped regions to change the regional carbon burden due to their low capacity to externally drive the expansion of built-up land. Meanwhile, the continuing development of developed regions exerts great pressure on carbon neutrality in both developing and undeveloped regions as they expand the "high-quality" built-up land themselves, which means that regional development may lead to changes in the carbon burden of regions which are less developed.

An integrated approach to assess spatial and temporal changes in the contribution of the ecosystem to sustainable development goals over 20 years in China

Ecosystems are an important basis for promoting sustainable development goals (SDGs) through the provision of stable ecosystem services (ESs). In the past 20 years, China has implemented a series of forestry ecological development projects, resulting in the improvement of the ecological environment. In this context, changes in ESs in China may affect the contribution of ecosystems to the SDGs, but there is a lack of research in this area. Studies have shown that ESs can support multiple SDGs, and quantifying the contribution of ecosystems to SDGs is currently a research focus. However, few studies have quantified the extent of the contribution of different ESs to the SDGs, although these differences are generally assumed. To narrow this knowledge gap, we construct an assessment approach that integrates the extent of the contribution of different ESs to the SDGs and assesses the temporal and spatial dynamics of the contribution of ESs to the SDGs in China from 2000 to 2020. Our analysis results indicate that during the study period, fractional vegetation cover improved in China. In general, water provision, soil conservation, and food provision services improved, while carbon storage and biodiversity maintenance services declined. The contribution capacity of provincial ecosystems to the SDGs increased, except in Tibet, between 2000 and 2020. Overall, the contributions to the SDGs had obvious spatial differences. The research results can support policy formulation and research on ES management and SDGs.

Multi-scenario simulation of carbon budget balance in arid and semi-arid regions

The carbon budget has emerged as a central focus in global carbon cycle research. The limited understanding of carbon budget balance dynamics has led to an increasing imbalance between ecological and socio-economic benefits. Building upon a comprehensive analysis of carbon storage and emission in Lanzhou from 2000 to 2020, this study develops a novel deep learning model (CNN-LSTM) to simulate carbon budget under various scenarios from 2030 to 2050. Additionally, scientifically grounded recommendations for carbon compensation are provided. The results demonstrate several key findings: (1) The deep learning model exhibits outstanding performance, with an average overall accuracy exceeding 0.93. The coupled model outperforms individual models, underscoring the significance and necessity of incorporating both temporal and spatial features in land use simulation. (2) Under the ecological protection redline scenario from 2030 to 2050, a noteworthy augmentation in carbon storage and a proficient constraint on carbon emissions are observed. This substantiates the effectiveness of ecological protection interventions. (3) Carbon compensation payment areas are predominantly concentrated in built-up land, with the extent of these areas expanding over time. (4) The disparities in carbon balance effects of forest were more conspicuous than that of built-up land across diverse temporal and scenarios.

Impacts of landscape pattern evolution on typical ecosystem services in Ganjiang River Basin, China

Understanding the response mechanism of ecosystem services (ES) to landscape patterns is important in regional landscape planning and sustainable development. In this study, the landscape index and InVEST model were used to quantitatively analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of landscape patterns and ES in the Ganjiang River Basin of China from 1990 to 2020. Furthermore, the bivariate Moran's I method and spatial error model were used to test the spatial correlation between landscape index and ES. The results showed that (1) cropland decreased and construction land increased, and the overall landscape tended to be fragmented, the patch shape complicated, and landscape diversity increased from 1990 to 2020. Water conservation (WC) and soil conservation (SC) capacity increased by 10.56 mm and 16.24 t hm-2 a-1, respectively, whereas carbon storage (CS) decreased by 1.22 t hm-2 a-1. (2) The responses of different typical ES to landscape patterns were different in the landscape index and response degree. Typical ES negatively responded to Shannon's diversity index and patch density. WC was sensitive to the Splitting Index, whereas SC and CS were more responsive to the average patch area. (3) The overall purpose of territorial spatial planning within a basin should be to reduce the fragmentation and heterogeneity of the landscape. According to four local aggregation patterns of landscape index and ES, corresponding measures can be taken according to local conditions in different regions. These results can provide a quantitative basis for landscape management and ecological construction in the Ganjiang River Basin and scientific guidance for the Yangtze River conservation strategy.

Assessment of Multiple Ecosystem Services and Ecological Security Pattern in Shanxi Province, China

The ecological security pattern construction could effectively regulate ecological processes and ensure ecological functions, then rationally allocate natural resources and green infrastructure, and, finally, realize ecological security. In view of serious soil erosion, accelerated land desertification, soil pollution and habitat degradation in Shanxi Province, the spatial distribution of six key ecosystem services, including water conservation (WC), soil conservation (SC), sand fixation (SF), carbon storage (CS), net primary productivity (NPP) and habitat quality (HQ), was analyzed by using multiple models. The comprehensive ability of multiple ecosystem services in different regions was quantified by calculating multiple ecosystem services landscape index (MESLI). Combined with ecosystem services hotspots, the ecological security pattern of Shanxi Province was constructed by using the minimum cumulative resistance model. The results showed that the spatial differences in ecosystem services in Shanxi Province were obvious, which was low in the seven major basins and Fen River valley, and high in the mountains (especially Taihang and Lvliang Mountains) for WC, SC, CS, NPP and HQ, while high SF was only distributed in the northern Shanxi. The MESLI showed that the ability to provide multiple ecosystem services simultaneously was low in Shanxi Province, with the medium and low grade MESLI regions accounting for 58.61%, and only 18.07% for the high grade MESLI regions. The important protected areas and ecological sources of the ecological security pattern were concentrated in the Lvliang and Taihang Mountains, which were consistent with the key areas of ecosystem services. The ecological corridors illustrated network distribution with ecological sources as the center, the low-, medium- and high-level buffers accounted for 26.34%, 17.03% and 16.35%, respectively. The results will provide important implications for economic transformation, high-quality development and ecological sustainable development in resource-based regions worldwide.

Spatial-Temporal Variations and Trade-Offs of Ecosystem Services in Anhui Province, China

Research on the spatiotemporal evolution and trade-offs of ecosystem services (ESs) is important for optimizing the ecological security barrier system and promoting coordinated socio-economic development. Natural factors, e.g., climate change, and human factors, e.g., unreasonable land use, have impacted and damaged ecosystem structure and function, leading to challenges with ES trade-offs and the spatial identification of priority protected areas. Here, the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of five ESs (water yield, nitrogen export, soil retention, carbon storage, and habitat quality) in Anhui Province, China, from 2000-2020 were analyzed based on the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model. The trade-offs and spatial patterns among different ESs were explored using Pearson correlation and hotspot analyses; the dynamics of natural growth, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection scenarios for ESs in 2030 were simulated and analyzed by coupling InVEST with the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model. The results reveal the following. (1) From 2000-2020, increases in water yield and soil retention occurred, with concurrent declines in the other services; the total nitrogen high-value area was mainly concentrated in the plain, with the other services' high-value areas mainly concentrated in the Dabieshan and Southern Anhui Mountains, with each ES showing similar spatial distributions across years. (2) The ESs were mainly synergistic, with trade-offs mainly between nitrogen export and other services. (3) Hotspot overlap between water yield and the other ESs was relatively low; no more than 6.53% of ecosystems per unit area provided five ESs simultaneously. (4) Other than water yield, the ecological protection scenario was more conducive to improving ecosystem functions. This study's results indicate inadequate synergy among ESs in Anhui Province; competition among land types must be further balanced in the future. This study provides a basic reference for implementing ecological projects and constructing ecological security patterns.

Compound Optimization of Territorial Spatial Structure and Layout at the City Scale from "Production-Living-Ecological" Perspectives

Land-use optimization, as an important resource-allocation method, can be defined as the process of allocating various activities to different geographic units. How to manage and control land expansion has become an urgent issue, leading a series of problems such as environmental damage and a sharp decrease in cultivated land, leading to unfavorable phenomena such as excessive urban expansion, occupation of cultivated land and important ecological spaces, and overheating of real estate development. Based on the land-use data of Wuhan city in 2020, a coupling MOP (Multi-Objective Programming) and FLUS (Future Land-Use Simulation) model was used to examine the national spatial structure and the optimization of the spatial layout. Our results showed that (1) in terms of quantitative optimal allocation, the ecological space and urban space increased, while the agricultural space greatly decreased under the three development scenarios. (2) In the simulation of spatial layout, the urban space mainly expanded vertically in the north-south direction. In the ecological space scenario, the ecological space occupied part of the cultivated land in the northeast of the city, resulting in a high degree of landscape fragmentation, which is not conducive to large-scale agricultural management. However, under optimal comprehensive benefit, part of the fragmented ecological space in the western part of Wuhan was transformed into an agricultural space. (3) A combination of the MOP and FLUS models could effectively determine land-use structure and address spatial layout optimization problems and can project space in the future urban resource configuration mode. This finding can provide a reference for the optimization of the spatial structure and layout of similar cities.

The impacts of cropland balance policy on habitat quality in China: A multiscale administrative perspective

Cropland protection policies are implemented to guarantee food security, especially the cropland balance policy in China. Although these policies alleviate the quantitative loss of cropland, they cause a serious decline in habitat quality and reduce biodiversity. With the reform trial of China's cropland balance policy from the within-province scale to the cross-provincial scale, the evaluation of habitat quality for obtaining cropland balance at different administrative scales is necessary to help seek sustainable strategies of cropland protection. Thus, taking Chinese mainland as the study area, this research assessed the different impacts of the cropland balance policy on habitat quality during 2000-2015 and 2015-2030 at national, provincial, municipal and county scales on the basis of the LAND System Cellular Automata model for Potential Effects (LANDSCAPE) and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs model (InVEST). The results revealed that (1) the loss of habitat quality by compensated cropland was 4.02 times that of the loss by occupied cropland in 2000-2015. Compared with occupied cropland, compensated cropland dominated the impacts of cropland change on habitat quality. (2) For both cropland quantity balance and cropland quality balance, habitat quality was slightly lost the most on the national scale in 2030. In detail, the greatest loss of habitat quality mostly occurred in areas where the ecological environment is already vulnerable at the national scale, whereas habitat quality was relatively less in these areas at the provincial, municipal and county scales. (3) Under the same administrative scales, habitat quality was lost more in cropland quality balance scenarios than in cropland quantity balance scenarios. The loss of habitat quality caused by cropland quality balance at national, provincial, municipal and county scales was 1.25, 1.05, 0.90 and 1.37 times higher than that by cropland quantity balance, respectively. The research highlights that considering the differentiated loss of habitat quality caused by cropland protection is quite important when implementing the cropland balance policy and land use planning.

Spatial and Temporal Variation and Prediction of Ecosystem Carbon Stocks in Yunnan Province Based on Land Use Change

The function of ecosystems as carbon sinks has emerged as a key strategy for advancing the concept of "carbon neutrality" and "carbon peaking". Ecosystem carbon stocks are impacted by land use changes that alter ecosystem structure and function. We evaluated the ecosystem carbon stocks of Yunnan Province in different periods with the aid of the carbon stock module of the InVEST model, analyzed the relationship between land use type shift and ecosystem carbon stock changes, and combine them with the CA-Markov model to predict land use types in 2030. The results showed that between 1990 and 2020, changes in land use primarily affected cropland, grassland, and forested areas. The ecosystem's average carbon stock from 1990 to 2020 was 8278.97 × 106 t. The carbon stocks of cropland, grassland, and unused land decreased by 31.36 × 106 t, 32.18 × 106 t, and 4.18 × 106 t during 1990-2020, respectively, while the carbon stocks of forest land, water area, and construction land increased by 24.31 × 106 t, 7.34 × 106 t, and 22.08 × 106 t. The main cause of the increase in carbon stocks in the ecosystem in Yunnan Province throughout the process of land use type shift was the development of forest land area, whereas the main cause of the decline was the shrinkage of cropland and grassland areas.

An Integrated Spatial Autoregressive Model for Analyzing and Simulating Urban Spatial Growth in a Garden City, China

In the past, the research on models related to urban land-use change and prediction was greatly complicated by the high precision of models. When planning some garden cities, we should explore a more applicable, specific, and effective macro approach than the community-level one. In this study, a model consisting of spatial autoregressive (SAR), cellular automata (CA), and Markov chains is constructed. One It can well-consider the spatial autocorrelation and integrate the advantages of CA into a geographical simulation to find the driving forces behind the expansion of a garden city. This framework has been applied to the urban planning and development of Chengdu, China. The research results show that the application of the SAR model shows the development trend in the southeast region and the needs to optimize the central region and protect the western region as an ecological reserve. The descriptive statistics and the spatial autocorrelation of the residuals are reliable. The influence of spatial variables from strong to weak is distance to water, slope, population density, GDP, distance to main roads, distance to railways, and distance to the center of the county (district). Taking 2005 as the initial year, the land-use situation in 2015 was simulated and compared with the actual land-use situation. It seems that the Kappa coefficient of the construction-land simulation is 0.7634, with high accuracy. Therefore, the land use in 2025 and 2035 is further simulated, which provides a reference for garden cities to formulate a reasonable urban space development strategy.

How Does Different Cropland Expansion Trajectories Affect Cropland Fragmentation? Insights From Three Urban Agglomerations in Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

A clear understanding of cropland expansion dynamics and their effects is vital for cropland protection and food security. However, the trajectories of cropland expansion have been less discussed. This study referred to the modes of landscape expansion and assessed the cropland expansion trajectory in three urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and its impact on cropland fragmentation. Specifically, we identified three cropland expansion trajectories using the landscape expansion index, namely, infilling, edge-expansion, and outlying. Moreover, the surface relief amplitude model was employed to characterize the relief amplitude effect on cropland expansion trajectories. By coupling landscape metrics (e.g., patch density, landscape shape index, the largest patch index, and aggregation index) and Spearman correlation analysis, the relationship between cropland expansion trajectories and cropland fragmentation was assessed. Results show that (1) three urban agglomerations experience cropland expansion, in which the edge-expansion trajectory is primary, followed by infilling and outlying trajectories; (2) the cumulative frequency curve indicates that infilling and edge-expansion trajectories are likely to be distributed in low topographic relief amplitude regions, while the outlying trajectory is located in relatively higher topographic relief amplitude regions; and (3) infilling and edge-expansion trajectories contribute to a significantly positive relationship with the decrease of cropland fragmentation, while the outlying trajectory has a negative relationship with cropland fragmentation. This research highlights that cropland protection policies should considerably focus on the trajectory of cropland expansion, not only request the total area of cropland in a dynamic balance.

The Spatiotemporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage in the Yellow River Basin Based on the Major Function-Oriented Zone Planning

Land use/cover change is the main reason for the variation of ecosystem carbon storage. The study of the impact of land use on carbon storage has certain reference values for realizing high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. In this paper, the InVEST model was used to simulate the variation of carbon storage in the Yellow River Basin in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, and to predict the carbon storage in 2030 in combination with the CA-Markov model, as well as to discuss the impact of land use on carbon storage. The results showed that: (1) The variation trend of carbon storage for different land use types in the Yellow River Basin was different and was mainly manifested as a decrease of cultivated land and unused land, and an increase of forest land, grassland, water, and construction land. The carbon storage in the provincial key development prioritized zone, national development optimized zone, and provincial development optimized zone showed decreasing trends, while the national key development prioritized zone and national major grain producing zone presented a fluctuating downward trend. (2) The ecosystem carbon storage function weakened after 2000, and part of the carbon sink area transformed into a carbon source area. The area with low carbon storage was distributed in the west of the provincial key ecological function zone, and the area with high carbon storage was concentrated in the south and middle of national key ecological function zone and the east of the provincial key ecological function zone. (3) The carbon loss was largest in the urban expansion scenario (UES), followed by the natural development scenario (NDS) and ecological protection scenario (EPS). The carbon storage of different scenarios presented significant positive correlations with land use intensity.

Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Land Use and Carbon Storage Changes in Changchun City Based on FLUS and InVEST Model

Land use change is an important reason for changes in carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. Therefore, analyzing the impact of land use change on carbon storage is important for exploring the sustainable development of cities and improving the value of ecosystem services. Taking Changchun City in the northeast of China as the research area, this paper simulates land use patterns under three scenarios up to 2030 using the FLUS model and assesses carbon storage from 2010 to 2030 using the InVEST model. It estimates the impact of land use change on carbon storage under several scenarios in Changchun. The results show that cultivated land plays an important role in carbon storage in Changchun. The transfer of cultivated land to construction land has been the main land use type conversion over the past decade, which has led to most of the carbon storage loss. In the natural growth scenario, the carbon storage would decline further. In the cultivated land protection scenario, meanwhile, this situation would be greatly improved. In the ecological protection scenario, the carbon storage would be increased due to the protection of ecological land. In the future, we should protect existing resources while simultaneously comprehensively improving the economic, social, and ecological benefits of the land.

Exploring the eco-efficiency of cultivated land utilization and its influencing factors in China's Yangtze River Economic Belt, 2001-2018

Rapid urbanization in China has worsened the sustainable utilization of limited cultivated land resources, which seriously threatens food security and ecological security. To realize maximum benefits and minimize environmental pollution, the eco-efficiency of cultivated land utilization (ECLU) is becoming a vital indicator in weighing the rationality of regional land use. However, conceptualization of the ECLU remains lacking, while assessments of this indicator are still incomplete. This lack of information may inhibit planning guideline for the sustainable development of cultivated land resources. Thus, this study attempts to fill this gap by customizing a new conceptual index system for the ECLU and measuring it using the slack-based measure with undesirable output (SBM-Undesirable) model in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) during the period 2001-2018. Spatial econometric models were used to further analyze the influencing factors of the ECLU. The average ECLU value in the YREB declined from 2001 to 2004, and then rapidly trended upward in 2005-2018. The lower reaches had the highest efficiency, followed by the middle and upper reaches, with respective values of 0.494, 0.628, and 0.683. The spatial-temporal pattern of the ECLU reveals that the number of areas with low and medium-low efficiency decreased gradually, while the number of areas with medium-high and high efficiency increased continuously. The magnitude and direction of influencing factors indicates that socioeconomic development level, agricultural science and technology investments, carbon emission reducing, and agricultural pollution control could effectively improve the ECLU. These findings have important implications for promoting high-efficient, low-carbon utilization of cultivated land resources and sustainable regional development in China.

Designing Ecological Security Patterns Based on the Framework of Ecological Quality and Ecological Sensitivity: A Case Study of Jianghan Plain, China

Researchers and managers of natural resource conservation have increasingly emphasized the importance of maintaining a connected network of important ecological patches to mitigate landscape fragmentation, reduce the decline of biodiversity, and sustain ecological services. This research aimed to guide landscape management and decision-making by developing an evaluation framework to construct ecological security patterns. Taking the Jianghan Plain as the study area, we identified key ecological sources by overlaying the spatial patterns of ecological quality (biodiversity, carbon storage, and water yield) and ecological sensitivity (habitat sensitivity, soil erosion sensitivity, and water sensitivity) using the Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and the Chinese Soil Loss Equation Function. Ecological corridors were obtained by the least-cost path analysis method and circuit theory. A total of 48 ecological sources (3812.95 km2), primarily consisting of water area, forestland, and cropland, were identified. Ninety-one ecological corridors were derived, with a total length of 2036.28 km. Forty barriers and 40 pinch points with the highest improvement coefficient scores or priority scores were selected. There were 11 priority corridors with very high levels of connectivity improvement potential and conservation priority, occupying 16.15% of the total length of corridors. The overall potential for ecological connectivity is high on the Jianghan Plain. Our framework offers a valuable reference for constructing ecological security patterns and identifying sites for ecological restoration at the regional scale.

Spatial optimization of urban land and cropland based on land production capacity to balance cropland protection and ecological conservation

Cropland protection strategies have provided a strong contribution to limit cropland transformation worldwide. However, it negatively affects ecological land (e.g., forest, grassland, and wetland). Identifying a win-win approach for cropland protection and ecological conservation is important. Land use optimization plays a vital role in solving conflicts among land uses. Thus, in this research, taking China (mainland) as the study area, we optimized the spatial distribution of urban land and cropland to balance the requirement of cropland protection strategies and their negative effects on ecological land according to the spatial heterogeneity of land agricultural production capacity by using the LAND System Cellular Automata model for Potential Effects (LANDSCAPE). Specifically, we developed three optimization scenarios from compensational, occupancy, and occupancy and compensational sectors. We also developed one non-optimization scenario to remain comparable. Results show that compared with the non-optimization scenario, the reduced loss of ecological land in compensational, occupancy, and occupancy and compensational optimization scenario is 7180, 247, and 7277 km², respectively. Our research indicates that we should prioritize the quality of compensated cropland when developing cropland protection strategies and planning, considering the low efficiency of the occupancy optimization and the cost of policymaking and implementing.

Integrating ecosystem services value and uncertainty into regional ecological risk assessment: A case study of Hubei Province, Central China

In the context of rapid urbanization, ecosystem services (ES) losses pose serious threats to sustainability. How to assess ecological risk based on ES value (ESV) has become an urgent problem for sustainable urbanization. However, existing regional ecological risk assessment frameworks ignore important elements, such as the assessment endpoint and uncertainty, weakening their reliability and practicability. In this study, a regional ecological risk assessment framework integrating ESV and uncertainty was proposed by introducing a classical financial indicator, the Sharpe Ratio. We take Hubei Province, Central China as a case and implemented the spatially explicit risk assessment approach based on the methods of the Markov-logistic-CA model, adjusted-based equivalent factor evaluation model, and geographic information system. The results showed that the distribution of expected ecological returns and corresponding uncertainties at county level had a remarkable spatial heterogeneity, and the assessed ecological risk index in Eastern and Western Hubei was higher than that in Central Hubei, indicating that counties in Central Hubei are the priority areas for ecological risk control. Moreover, the expansion of built-up land had the most significant effect on regional ecological risk. This regional ecological risk framework can well integrate the assessment endpoint and dynamic processes of ecological risk. Our assessment framework has potential practical value for ecological risk control and land use planning on ecosystems.