Managing fires in a changing world: Fuel and weather determine fire behavior and safety in the neotropical savannas

Fire seasonality plays a limited role in the reproduction of Anacardium humile A. St.-Hil. in a tropical savanna

Anthropogenic fires are an increasing threat to tropical savannas and their plant populations. In the Brazilian Cerrado, human-made fires at the end of the dry season are replacing natural fires at the beginning of the dry season. Critically, these late burns occur under more intense climate variables. Here, we aimed to understand the potential role of fire seasonality on individuals of Anacardium humile, a widespread Cerrado species of cultural and economic importance. We conducted two prescribed burnings, one at the beginning of the dry season (early burning) and one at the end of the dry season (late burning) when climate variables were remarkably different. We assessed the reproductive responses of A. humile individuals over 4 years and compared individuals from the fire treatments with those from an unburned area (control). The reproductive phenology of A. humile varied over time and was influenced by climate variables. The seasons of different burning had similar impacts on the reproductive phenology of A. humile, and this impact lasted for at least 4 years. While A. humile populations do not depend on fire for reproduction, they produced more flowers and fruits for up to 2 years with the fire treatments. We provide empirical evidence of the role of climate variables on the phenology of A. humile and demonstrate the importance of considering the role of time after fire events. The similar responses of A. humile to fire seasonality show that Cerrado fire management can be more complex than previously thought.

How do intrinsic and extrinsic causes interact in the extinction vulnerability of South American savanna shrub and tree species?

Although a growing body of literature recognises the importance of rarity for biodiversity conservation, it is unclear how the interaction of different forms of rarity, extrinsic causes of extinction, and protection affect species' vulnerability. Here we addressed the extinction vulnerability of 2203 shrub and tree species of the South American savanna (SAS). For this, species were attributed a form of rarity, a synergistic risk index (SRI), and a protection index (PI). The SRI combines three extrinsic causes of extinction (climate hazard, fire frequency, and human footprint). The PI is the ratio between the number of a species occurrences within protected areas and the total number of occurrences in the SAS. By combining the SRI and PI, we classified common and rare species into five vulnerability classes. Some regions of the SAS show high values of climate hazard, fire frequency, human footprint, and SRI. Each extrinsic cause of extinction is differently distributed across the SAS and shows no or low spatial congruence with the SRI. Many species show a low ratio of occurrences within PAs, which in combination with high SRI results in high vulnerability to extinction. Surprisingly, the number of common species in the higher vulnerability classes is higher than of rare species. Common and rare species in different vulnerability classes occur in somewhat different locations across the SAS and mainly constitute spatially incongruent centres with high species richness. Given our results, we propose that strategies for the effective conservation of SAS species are challenging and must be carefully designed.

Vale M. We're building it up to burn it down: fire occurrence and fire-related climatic patterns in Brazilian biomes

Background

Terrestrial biomes in South America are likely to experience a persistent increase in environmental temperature, possibly combined with moisture reduction due to climate change. In addition, natural fire ignition sources, such as lightning, can become more frequent under climate change scenarios since favourable environmental conditions are likely to occur more often. In this sense, changes in the frequency and magnitude of natural fires can impose novel stressors on different ecosystems according to their adaptation to fires. By focusing on Brazilian biomes, we use an innovative combination of techniques to quantify fire persistence and occurrence patterns over time and evaluate climate risk by considering key fire-related climatic characteristics. Then, we tested four major hypotheses considering the overall characteristics of fire-dependent, fire-independent, and fire-sensitive biomes concerning (1) fire persistence over time; (2) the relationship between climate and fire occurrence; (3) future predictions of climate change and its potential impacts on fire occurrence; and (4) climate risk faced by biomes.

Methods

We performed a Detrended Fluctuation Analysis to test whether fires in Brazilian biomes are persistent over time. We considered four bioclimatic variables whose links to fire frequency and intensity are well-established to assess the relationship between climate and fire occurrence by confronting these climate predictors with a fire occurrence dataset through correlative models. To assess climate risk, we calculated the climate hazard, sensitivity, resilience, and vulnerability of Brazilian biomes, and then we multiplied the Biomes' vulnerability index by the hazards.

Results

Our results indicate a persistent behaviour of fires in all Brazilian biomes at almost the same rates, which could represent human-induced patterns of fire persistence. We also corroborated our second hypothesis by showing that most fire-dependent biomes presented high thermal suitability to fire, while the fire-independent biome presented intermediate suitability and fire-sensitive biomes are the least suitable for fire occurrence. The third hypothesis was partially corroborated since fire-dependent and independent biomes are likely to increase their thermal suitability to fire, while fire-sensitive biomes are likely to present stable-to-decreasing thermal suitability in the future. Finally, our fourth hypothesis was partially corroborated since most fire-dependent biomes presented low climate risk, while the fire-independent biome presented a high risk and the fire-sensitive biomes presented opposite trends. In summary, while the patterns of fire persistence and fire occurrence over time are more likely to be related to human-induced fires, key drivers of burned areas are likely to be intensified across Brazilian biomes in the future, potentially increasing the magnitude of the fires and harming the biomes' integrity.

Putting fire on the map of Brazilian savanna ecoregions

The Brazilian savanna (Cerrado) is considered the most floristically diverse savanna in the world, home to more than seven thousand species. The region is a mosaic of savannas, grasslands and forests whose unique biophysical and landscape attributes are on the basis of a recent ecoregional map, paving the way to improved region-based strategies for land management actions. However, as a fire-prone ecosystem, Cerrado owes much of its distribution and ecological properties to the fire regime and contributes to an important parcel of South America burned area. Accordingly, any attempt to use ecoregion geography as a guide for management strategies should take fire into account, as an essential variable. The main aim of this study is to complement the ecoregional map of the Cerrado with information related to the fire component. Using remotely sensed information, we identify patterns and trends of fire frequency, intensity, seasonality, extent and scar size, and combine this information for each ecoregion, relying on a simple classification that summarizes the main fire characteristics over the last two decades. Results show a marked north-south fire activity gradient, with increased contributions from MATOPIBA, the latest agricultural frontier. Five ecoregions alone account for two thirds of yearly burned area. More intense fires are found in the Arc of Deforestation and eastern ecoregions, while ecoregions in MATOPIBA display decreasing fire intensity. An innovative analysis of fire scars stratified by size class shows that infrequent large fires are responsible for the majority of burned area. These large fires display positive trends over many ecoregions, whereas smaller fires, albeit more frequent, have been decreasing in number. The final fire classification scheme shows well defined spatially-aggregated groups, where trends are found to be the key factor to evaluate fire within their regional contexts. Results presented here provide new insights to improve fire management strategies under a changing climate.

Record-breaking wildfires in the world's largest continuous tropical wetland: Integrative fire management is urgently needed for both biodiversity and humans

In the Brazilian Pantanal, wildfire occurrence has increased, reaching record highs of over 40,000 km² in 2020. Smoke from wildfires worsened the situation of isolated, as well as urban communities, already under an increasing toll of COVID-19. Here we review the impacts and the possible causes of the 2020 mega-fires and recommend improvements for public policies and fire management in this wetland. We calculated the amount of area burnt annually since 2003 and describe patterns in precipitation and water level measurements of the Paraguay River. Our analyses revealed that the 2020 wildfires were historically unprecedented, as 43% of the area (over 17,200 km²) had not been burnt previously in the last two decades. The extent of area affected in 2020 represents a 376% increase compared to the annual average of the area burnt annually in the last two decades, double than the value in 2019. Potential factors responsible for this increase are (i) severe drought decreased water levels, (ii) the fire corridor was located in the Paraguay River flood zone, (iii) constraints on firefighters, (iv) insufficient fire prevention strategy and agency budget reductions, and (v) recent landscape changes. Climate and land use change will further increase the frequency of these extreme events. To make fire management more efficient and cost-effective, we recommend the implementation of an Integrated Fire Management program in the Pantanal. Stakeholders should use existing traditional, local ecological, and scientific knowledge to form a collective strategy with clear, achievable, measurable goals, considering the socio-ecological context. Permanent fire brigades, including indigenous members, should conduct year-round fire management. Communities should cooperate to create a collaborative network for wildfire prevention, the location and characteristics (including flammability) of infrastructures should be (re)planned in fire-prone environments considering and managing fire-catalysed transitions, and depending on the severity of wildfires. The 2020 wildfires were tackled in an ad-hoc fashion and prioritisation of areas for urgent financial investment, management, protection, and restoration is necessary to prevent this catastrophe from happening again.