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Li Y, Jia P, Jiang S, Li H, Kuang H, Hong Y, Wang S, Zhao X, Guan D. The climate impact of high seas shipping. Natl Sci Rev 2023; 10:nwac279. [PMID: 36875783 PMCID: PMC9976761 DOI: 10.1093/nsr/nwac279] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2022] [Revised: 11/27/2022] [Accepted: 12/06/2022] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Strict carbon emission regulations are set with respect to countries' territorial seas or shipping activities in exclusive economic zones to meet their climate change commitment under the Paris Agreement. However, no shipping policies on carbon mitigation are proposed for the world's high seas regions, which results in carbon intensive shipping activities. In this paper, we propose a Geographic-based Emission Estimation Model (GEEM) to estimate shipping GHG emission patterns on high seas regions. The results indicate that annual emissions of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e) in shipping on the high seas reached 211.60 million metric tonnes in 2019, accounting for about one-third of all shipping emissions globally and exceeding annual GHG emissions of countries such as Spain. The average emission from shipping activities on the high seas is growing at approximately 7.26% per year, which far surpasses the growth rate of global shipping emission at 2.23%. We propose implementation of policies on each high seas region with respect to the main emission driver identified from our results. Our policy evaluation results show that carbon mitigation policies could reduce emissons by 25.46 and 54.36 million tonnes CO2-e in the primary intervention stage and overall intervention stage, respectively, with 12.09% and 25.81% reduction rates in comparison to the 2019 annual GHG emissions in high seas shipping.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuze Li
- Questrom School of Business, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA
| | - Peng Jia
- Collaborative Innovation Center for Transport Studies, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China.,School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China.,School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
| | - Shangrong Jiang
- School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
| | - Haijiang Li
- Collaborative Innovation Center for Transport Studies, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China.,School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China
| | - Haibo Kuang
- Collaborative Innovation Center for Transport Studies, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China.,School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China
| | - Yongmiao Hong
- School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China.,Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China.,Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
| | - Shouyang Wang
- School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China.,Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China.,Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China.,School of Entrepreneurship and Management, ShanghaiTech University, Shanghai 201210, China
| | - Xueting Zhao
- Collaborative Innovation Center for Transport Studies, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China.,School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China
| | - Dabo Guan
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100080, China.,School of International Development, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
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