Analysis and simulation of the driving mechanism and ecological effects of land cover change in the Weihe River basin, China

Research on the evolution characteristics, driving mechanisms and multi-scenario simulation of habitat quality in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay based on multi-model coupling

Since the 20th century, the global urbanization has led to a series of pollution issues, posing a severe threat to the habitat quality of human habitat. The quality of habitat determines whether ecosystems can provide suitable living conditions for humans and other species. Therefore, systematic study of the habitat quality is essential for the maintenance of sustainable development. In this study, we coupled models such as SD, InVEST and PLUS with a series of indicators to analyze the characteristics of land cover and habitat quality evolution in the Guangdong-HongKong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) from 2000 to 2020 and deconstruct the driving mechanisms of habitat quality. Then simulate the evolution of land cover and habitat quality under different scenarios in 2030. The results show that: 1) Over the historical research period, the GBA exhibited "rapid expansion of artificial surfaces and rapid shrinkage of ecological land". Artificial surfaces increased by approximately 4878.95km2,while ecological land, such as agricultural land, decreased by about 3095.93km2.2) The degradation of habitat quality gradually accelerated and the habitat quality was characterized by "stepwise decline from the periphery to the interior", which was directly related to the land cover changes brought about by the topographic gradient effect in the Bay Area.3) Pollution control driven by environmental investments has had a moderating effect on habitat degradation, but it has not been able to change the overall degradation trend. 4) Scenario analysis suggests that future habitat quality in the GBA will degrade to a certain extent due to the impact of artificial surface expansion. We deduce that this will affect the structure of the city's ecological network as well as the conservation function of the ecological zones. This study provides a scientific basis for understanding the historical and future trends of habitat quality in the GBA, offering new insights into the intrinsic driving mechanisms of habitat quality. It also provides a theoretical support for relevant authorities to undertake sustainable development initiatives.

Exploring the supply and demand imbalance of carbon and carbon-related ecosystem services for dual‑carbon goal ecological management in the Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt

The measurement of carbon and carbon-related ecosystem services (CCESs) has garnered considerable global attention, primarily due to dual‑carbon goals, which are crucial for the rational allocating of ecosystem service (ES) resources and the enhancement of terrestrial carbon sinks. This study developed a novel research framework on CCESs to quantitatively measure carbon storage (CS), food production (FS), habitat quality (HQ), soil conservation (SC), and water yield (WY), and examined the spatiotemporal patterns of the supply-demand and trade-off/synergy processes related to CCESs in the Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt (HREEB). The findings are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the supply-demand of the CCESs generally increased, except for carbon storage and food demand. Overall, the supply level of the CCESs exceeds the demand level, with a median ratio of supply and demand ratio (ESDR) of 1.13. (2) During the study period, the synergy relationship of the CCESs is mainly determined by the supply side of the CS-HQ and CS-SC, while on the demand side, it is determined by the CD- FD. And the ESDR of all C-related ecosystem services showed a significant synergy strengthening with CS in the HREEB. (3) Spatially, "high-low" spatial matching of the ESDR decreased, suggesting a gradual reduction in the spatial mismatch of CCESs. (4) We identified seven ecological functional zones and proposed corresponding strategies for promoting ecological management. Our research emphasized the spatiotemporal patterns of supply and demand imbalance in CCESs and the spatial optimization paths of trade-offs/synergies, providing valuable insights for achieving regional dual‑carbon goals.

Assessment of suitable areas for afforestation and its carbon sink value in fragile ecological areas of northern China

Afforestation and reforestation are pivotal in mitigating land degradation and bolstering the carbon sink capacity of terrestrial ecosystems. However, the potential economic ramifications of afforestation and reforestation in the context of climate change remain largely unexplored. In this study, we employed an interdisciplinary methodology to establish a framework for assessing future forest potential and carbon sequestration in the Eastern Loess Plateau region of China. Our findings indicate that an estimated 17,392.99 km2 of land suitable for afforestation still existed within the region, exhibiting a propensity to aggregate around existing forests rather than being dispersed randomly. Notably, 4385.36 km2 was prioritized for afforestation initiatives. Projections suggest a significant enhancement of the forest carbon sink within the study area by 2050, ranging from 36.93 Mt to 105.38 Mt. The corresponding economic value for this enhancement is estimated to vary between US$3.25 billion and US$17.68 billion. Of significance is the observed polarization of the region's carbon sink capacity over time, with half of the total carbon sinks concentrated within 10% of the districts. Additionally, approximately 26% of the counties are expected to transition from carbon sinks to carbon sources. These findings underscore the substantial impact of climate change on forest distribution and suggest a targeted approach to combat forest degradation by circumventing ineffective afforestation activities.