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Tsuchiya M, Nagahama H, Muto J, Hirano M, Yasuoka Y. Detection of atmospheric radon concentration anomalies and their potential for earthquake prediction using Random Forest analysis. Sci Rep 2024; 14:11626. [PMID: 38821969 PMCID: PMC11143197 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-61887-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2024] [Accepted: 05/10/2024] [Indexed: 06/02/2024] Open
Abstract
Various anomalies occurring before earthquakes are currently being studied to predict seismic events, with one of them being the radioactive element radon (222Rn). Radon concentrations in the soil, water, and atmosphere fluctuate in response to crustal movement. Recent research has statistically detected anomalies by analyzing the fluctuations in radon concentrations before earthquakes and conducting quantitative evaluations of radon. However, the method used to determine the parameters in the analysis was problematic. Therefore, in this study, we compared observed atmospheric radon concentration data with predicted values based on typical annual patterns using Random Forest analysis. We conducted a more objective analysis by employing this method and statistically determining anomalies using thresholds. This analysis was conducted using atmospheric radon concentration observation data obtained at Kobe Pharmaceutical University (KPU) before the 1995 Kobe Earthquake, and ionization currents emitted when radon decays were obtained at Fukushima Medical University (FMU) before the 2011 Tohoku-oki Earthquake. Consequently, before the major earthquakes occurred at both locations, the difference between the predicted and observed values exceeded the standard deviation by a factor of three. These results indicate the potential of Random Forest analysis to identify anomalies in atmospheric radon concentrations before earthquakes occur.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mayu Tsuchiya
- Department of Earth Science, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, 6-3 Aramaki-Aza-Aoba, Aoba-ku, Sendai, 980-8578, Japan.
| | - Hiroyuki Nagahama
- Department of Earth Science, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, 6-3 Aramaki-Aza-Aoba, Aoba-ku, Sendai, 980-8578, Japan
| | - Jun Muto
- Department of Earth Science, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, 6-3 Aramaki-Aza-Aoba, Aoba-ku, Sendai, 980-8578, Japan
| | - Mitsuhiro Hirano
- School of Engineering, Utsunomiya University, 7-1-2 Yoto, Utsunomiya, 321-8585, Japan
| | - Yumi Yasuoka
- Radioisotope Research Center, Kobe Pharmaceutical University, 4-19-1 Motoyamakitamachi, Higashinada-ku, Kobe, 658-8558, Japan
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Huang P, Lv W, Huang R, Luo Q, Yang Y. Earthquake precursors: A review of key factors influencing radon concentration. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RADIOACTIVITY 2024; 271:107310. [PMID: 37890207 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2023.107310] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2023] [Revised: 10/01/2023] [Accepted: 10/07/2023] [Indexed: 10/29/2023]
Abstract
Many factors influence the accurate identification of radon anomalies triggered by earthquakes to varying degrees. Therefore, this paper primarily provides a comprehensive review of the various factors influencing radon concentrations over the past two decades. In addition to examining the individual effects of these factors on radon concentrations, it explores the interactions among multiple factors, particularly the correlations among radon anomalies and seismic events as well as the environmental context. This review mainly includes the classification of groundwater radon anomalies and their potential formation mechanisms, the environmental impact on radon concentrations, the effects of soil and rock structures on radon migration, and the application of machine learning in detecting radon anomalies induced by earthquakes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pei Huang
- School of Geophysics and Measurement-control Technology, East China University of Technology, Nanchang, 330013, People's Republic of China
| | - Wenjie Lv
- School of Geophysics and Measurement-control Technology, East China University of Technology, Nanchang, 330013, People's Republic of China
| | - Rengui Huang
- Jiangxi Earthquake Agency, Nanchang, 330026, People's Republic of China
| | - Qibin Luo
- School of Geophysics and Measurement-control Technology, East China University of Technology, Nanchang, 330013, People's Republic of China
| | - Yaxin Yang
- School of Geophysics and Measurement-control Technology, East China University of Technology, Nanchang, 330013, People's Republic of China.
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Hussein AM, Abdullah KO, Fattah AH, Mohammed-Ali RR. Estimating atmospheric radon deviation using statistical coefficients: Sulaymaniyah city, Iraq, as a case of study. ISOTOPES IN ENVIRONMENTAL AND HEALTH STUDIES 2023; 59:202-215. [PMID: 37029986 DOI: 10.1080/10256016.2023.2195175] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
The authors studied the atmospheric radon concentration with associated meteorological parameters variation during the dust events from July to November 2017. We obtained the meteorological parameters data in weather station of Sulaymaniyah city, Iraq. In the environmental monitoring plan, the atmospheric radon fluctuated from 15 to 48 Bq m-3 around the mean value of 31.5 ± 7 Bq m-3 within the summer. In autumn, varied from 22 to 46 Bq m-3 with a mean value of 34 ± 12 Bq m-3. We employed this to determine the radon level anomalously. Using the modified statistical coefficients, such as the residual deviation (RD), residual fluctuation ratio (RFR), F-test, and p-value coefficients. Among the atmospheric radon fluctuation values, particularly one anomalous (42 Bq m-3) on 25 July was determined because the excessive value of the RD was 1.9 σ, and the RFR value was 66 %. Corresponding to our coefficients criteria, the minimum level of atmospheric radon (22 Bq m-3) does not consider anomalous because of increasing wind speed. Based on this, our method for determining the atmospheric radon anomalies that are influenced by the missed factors beyond the mentioned meteorological parameters is accurate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adil M Hussein
- Physics Department, College of Science, University of Sulaimani, Ministry of High Education, Sulaymaniyah city, Kurdistan Region, Iraq
| | - Kamal O Abdullah
- Physics Department, College of Science, University of Sulaimani, Ministry of High Education, Sulaymaniyah city, Kurdistan Region, Iraq
| | - Aziz H Fattah
- Physics Department, College of Science, University of Sulaimani, Ministry of High Education, Sulaymaniyah city, Kurdistan Region, Iraq
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Muto J, Yasuoka Y, Miura N, Iwata D, Nagahama H, Hirano M, Ohmomo Y, Mukai T. Preseismic atmospheric radon anomaly associated with 2018 Northern Osaka earthquake. Sci Rep 2021; 11:7451. [PMID: 33811241 PMCID: PMC8018951 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-86777-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2020] [Accepted: 03/19/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Despite the challenges in identifying earthquake precursors in intraplate (inland) earthquakes, various hydrological and geochemical measurements have been conducted to establish a possible link to seismic activities. Anomalous increases in radon (222Rn) concentration in soil, groundwater, and atmosphere have been reported prior to large earthquakes. Although the radon concentration in the atmosphere is lower than that in groundwater and soils, a recent statistical analysis has suggested that the average atmospheric concentration over a relatively wide area reflects crustal deformation. However, no study has sought to determine the underlying physico-chemical relationships between crustal deformation and anomalous atmospheric radon concentrations. Here, we show a significant decrease in the atmospheric radon concentration temporally linked to the seismic quiescence before the 2018 Northern Osaka earthquake occurring at a hidden fault with complex rupture dynamics. During seismic quiescence, deep-seated sedimentary layers in Osaka Basin, which might be the main sources of radon, become less damaged and fractured. The reduction in damage leads to a decrease in radon exhalation to the atmosphere near the fault, causing the preseismic radon decrease in the atmosphere. Herein, we highlight the necessity of continuous monitoring of the atmospheric radon concentration, combined with statistical anomaly detection method, to evaluate future seismic risks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jun Muto
- Department of Earth Sciences, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, 6-3 Aramaki-Aza-Aoba, Aoba-ku, Sendai, 980-8578, Japan.
| | - Yumi Yasuoka
- Radioisotope Research Center, Kobe Pharmaceutical University, 4-19-1 Motoyamakita-machi, Higashinada-ku, Kobe, 658-8558, Japan
| | - Nao Miura
- Radioisotope Research Center, Kobe Pharmaceutical University, 4-19-1 Motoyamakita-machi, Higashinada-ku, Kobe, 658-8558, Japan
| | - Daichi Iwata
- Department of Earth Sciences, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, 6-3 Aramaki-Aza-Aoba, Aoba-ku, Sendai, 980-8578, Japan
| | - Hiroyuki Nagahama
- Department of Earth Sciences, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, 6-3 Aramaki-Aza-Aoba, Aoba-ku, Sendai, 980-8578, Japan
| | - Mitsuhiro Hirano
- Department of Earth Sciences, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, 6-3 Aramaki-Aza-Aoba, Aoba-ku, Sendai, 980-8578, Japan
| | - Yoshiro Ohmomo
- Osaka Medical and Pharmaceutical University, 4-20-1 Nasahara Takatuki-shi, Osaka, 569-1094, Japan
| | - Takahiro Mukai
- Radioisotope Research Center, Kobe Pharmaceutical University, 4-19-1 Motoyamakita-machi, Higashinada-ku, Kobe, 658-8558, Japan.,Laboratory of Biophysical Chemistry, Kobe Pharmaceutical University, 4-19-1 Motoyamakita-machi, Higashinada-ku, Kobe, 658-8558, Japan
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Nevinsky I, Tsvetkova T, Dogru M, Aksoy E, Inceoz M, Baykara O, Kulahci F, Melikadze G, Akkurt I, Kulali F, Vogiannis E, Pitikakis E, Katsanou K, Lambrakis N. Results of the simultaneous measurements of radon around the Black Sea for seismological applications. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RADIOACTIVITY 2018; 192:48-66. [PMID: 29886349 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2018.05.019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/27/2016] [Revised: 11/29/2017] [Accepted: 05/28/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Results of measurements of radon around of the Black Sea are shown. Radon stations in zones of active faults were placed. Simultaneous hourly measurements of soil radon in 2005 were carried out in the Sivrice Fault Zone that is a segment of East Anatolian Fault System, in the town of Tbilisi (Georgia) and in the South Russia. In 2008 simultaneously hourly measurements of soil radon were carried out in the Western Caucasus (Russia) and in the Mytilene Island (Greece). In 2013 radon in underground waters simultaneously in midday was measuring in Crete (Greece), in the Pamukkale geothermal region (Southwest Turkey) and in the Western Caucasus. Measurements of radon concentration in the points located around of the Black Sea have shown identical regularities in changes of the data. Influence of meteorological, tidal and solar factors on changes of water radon concentrations and soil radon concentrations was observed in all researches points. But this influence was insignificant. Seismological application of observed results also was considered. Various mathematical methods of definition of anomaly in the radon data during earthquakes were considered. During researches in the Black Sea region basically earthquakes with M from 2.0 up to 5.0 and in a depth about 10 km were occurred. For these earthquakes method of daily subtraction of the data of the next and previous day was used. This method has allowed solving a problem with a choice of average value. Probability up to 0.69 (number of earthquakes with radon anomalies/total number of earthquakes) of detection of radon anomalies before earthquakes was achieved applying this method. Changes of radon maps before regional earthquakes were also observed. The frequency analysis of variations of the radon data on the basis of the Wavelet analysis was carried out. Occurrence of the short periods (about 2 days) was observed during regional earthquakes.
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Affiliation(s)
- I Nevinsky
- Private Establishment Research Centre of Natural Radioactivity (RCNR), 82, Frunze str., set. Kholmsky, Abinsk Distr., Krasnodar Region, 353302, Russia
| | - T Tsvetkova
- Private Establishment Research Centre of Natural Radioactivity (RCNR), 82, Frunze str., set. Kholmsky, Abinsk Distr., Krasnodar Region, 353302, Russia.
| | - M Dogru
- BitlisEren University, Department of Physics, 13000, Bitlis, Turkey
| | - E Aksoy
- Fırat University, Department of Geological Engineering, 23100, Elazig, Turkey
| | - M Inceoz
- Fırat University, Department of Geological Engineering, 23100, Elazig, Turkey
| | - O Baykara
- Fırat University, Faculty of Education, 23100, Elazig, Turkey
| | - F Kulahci
- Fırat University, Department of Physics, 23100, Elazig, Turkey
| | - G Melikadze
- Head of Research Department of Hydrogeophysic and Geothermic, Institute of Geophysics, Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, 1 Aleksidze Street, Tbilisi, 0171, Georgia
| | - I Akkurt
- Science Faculty, Department of Physics, Suleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey
| | - F Kulali
- Science Faculty, Department of Physics, Suleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey
| | - E Vogiannis
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of the Aegean, Mytilene, Greece
| | - E Pitikakis
- Laboratory of Hydrogeology, Department of Geology, University of Patras, 26500, Rio, Greece
| | - K Katsanou
- Laboratory of Hydrogeology, Department of Geology, University of Patras, 26500, Rio, Greece
| | - N Lambrakis
- Laboratory of Hydrogeology, Department of Geology, University of Patras, 26500, Rio, Greece
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Iwata D, Nagahama H, Muto J, Yasuoka Y. Non-parametric detection of atmospheric radon concentration anomalies related to earthquakes. Sci Rep 2018; 8:13028. [PMID: 30158564 PMCID: PMC6115410 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-31341-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2017] [Accepted: 08/16/2018] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Anomalous phenomena related to earthquakes have been studied to aid in the forecasting of large earthquakes. Radon (222Rn) concentration changes are known to be one of those phenomena. Many studies have quantified radon anomalies to identify physical aspects of radon emanations related to earthquakes. Here, we apply singular spectrum transformation, non-parametric analysis to estimate change points in time series, to atmospheric radon concentration. From 10 years of data from continuous observation of the atmospheric radon concentration over northeastern Japan and Hokkaido, we identify anomalies in the atmospheric radon concentration related to the moment releases of large earthquakes. Compared with a conventional model-based method, the singular spectrum transformation method identifies more anomalies. Moreover, we also find that change points in the atmospheric radon concentration prior to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw 9.0; 11 Mar. 2011, N38.1°, E142.9°) coincided with periods of other anomalous precursory phenomena. Our results indicate that singular spectrum transformation can be used to detect anomalies in atmospheric radon concentration related to the occurrences of large earthquakes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daichi Iwata
- Department of Earth Science, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan.
| | - Hiroyuki Nagahama
- Department of Earth Science, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
| | - Jun Muto
- Department of Earth Science, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
| | - Yumi Yasuoka
- Radioisotope Research Center, Department of Pharmacy, Kobe Pharmaceutical University, Kobe, Japan
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Goto M, Yasuoka Y, Nagahama H, Muto J, Omori Y, Ihara H, Mukai T. Anomalous changes in atmospheric radon concentration before and after the 2011 northern Wakayama Earthquake (Mj 5.5). RADIATION PROTECTION DOSIMETRY 2017; 174:412-418. [PMID: 27412515 PMCID: PMC5423104 DOI: 10.1093/rpd/ncw142] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2016] [Revised: 05/21/2016] [Accepted: 05/29/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
A significant increase in atmospheric radon concentration was observed in the area around the epicentre before and after the occurrence of the shallow inland earthquake in the northern Wakayama Prefecture on 5 July 2011 (Mj 5.5, depth 7 km) in Japan. The seismic activity in the sampling site was evaluated to identify that this earthquake was the largest near the sampling site during the observation period. To determine whether this was an anomalous change, the atmospheric daily minimum radon concentration measured for a 13-year period was analysed. When the residual radon concentration values without the seasonal radon variation and the linear trend was > 3 standard deviations of the residual radon variation corresponding to the normal period, the values were deemed as anomalous. As a result, an anomalous increase in radon concentration was determined before and after the earthquake. In conclusion, anomalous change related to earthquakes with at least Mj 5.5 can be detected by monitoring atmospheric radon near the epicentre.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mikako Goto
- Department of Biophysical Chemistry, Kobe Pharmaceutical University, 4-19-1 Motoyamakitamachi, Higashinada-ku, Kobe City, Hyogo 658-8558, Japan
| | - Yumi Yasuoka
- Institute of Radioisotope Research, Kobe Pharmaceutical University, 4-19-1 Motoyamakitamachi, Higashinada-ku, Kobe City, Hyogo 658-8558, Japan
| | - Hiroyuki Nagahama
- Department of Earth Science, Tohoku University, 6-3 Aza Aoba, Aramaki, Aoba-ku, Sendai City, Miyagi 980-8578, Japan
| | - Jun Muto
- Department of Earth Science, Tohoku University, 6-3 Aza Aoba, Aramaki, Aoba-ku, Sendai City, Miyagi 980-8578, Japan
| | - Yasutaka Omori
- Department of Radiation Physics and Chemistry, Fukushima Medical University, 1 Hikarigaoka, Fukushima City, Fukushima 960-1295, Japan
| | - Hayato Ihara
- Radioisotope Laboratory Center, Wakayama Medical University School of Medicine, 811-1 Kimiidera, Wakayama City, Wakayama 641-8509, Japan
| | - Takahiro Mukai
- Department of Biophysical Chemistry, Kobe Pharmaceutical University, 4-19-1 Motoyamakitamachi, Higashinada-ku, Kobe City, Hyogo 658-8558, Japan
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Kobayashi Y, Yasuoka Y, Omori Y, Nagahama H, Sanada T, Muto J, Suzuki T, Homma Y, Ihara H, Kubota K, Mukai T. Annual variation in the atmospheric radon concentration in Japan. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RADIOACTIVITY 2015; 146:110-118. [PMID: 25973540 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2015.04.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2014] [Revised: 04/07/2015] [Accepted: 04/12/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Anomalous atmospheric variations in radon related to earthquakes have been observed in hourly exhaust-monitoring data from radioisotope institutes in Japan. The extraction of seismic anomalous radon variations would be greatly aided by understanding the normal pattern of variation in radon concentrations. Using atmospheric daily minimum radon concentration data from five sampling sites, we show that a sinusoidal regression curve can be fitted to the data. In addition, we identify areas where the atmospheric radon variation is significantly affected by the variation in atmospheric turbulence and the onshore-offshore pattern of Asian monsoons. Furthermore, by comparing the sinusoidal regression curve for the normal annual (seasonal) variations at the five sites to the sinusoidal regression curve for a previously published dataset of radon values at the five Japanese prefectures, we can estimate the normal annual variation pattern. By fitting sinusoidal regression curves to the previously published dataset containing sites in all Japanese prefectures, we find that 72% of the Japanese prefectures satisfy the requirements of the sinusoidal regression curve pattern. Using the normal annual variation pattern of atmospheric daily minimum radon concentration data, these prefectures are suitable areas for obtaining anomalous radon variations related to earthquakes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuka Kobayashi
- Kobe Pharmaceutical University, 4-19-1, Motoyamakitamachi, Higashinada-ku, Kobe City, Hyogo, 658-8558, Japan
| | - Yumi Yasuoka
- Kobe Pharmaceutical University, 4-19-1, Motoyamakitamachi, Higashinada-ku, Kobe City, Hyogo, 658-8558, Japan.
| | - Yasutaka Omori
- Fukushima Medical University, 1, Hikarigaoka, Fukushima City, Fukushima, 960-1295, Japan
| | - Hiroyuki Nagahama
- Tohoku University, 6-3, Aza Aoba, Aramaki, Aoba-ku, Sendai City, Miyagi, 980-8578, Japan
| | - Tetsuya Sanada
- Hokkaido University of Science, Maeda 7-15-4-1, Teine-ku, Sapporo City, Hokkaido, 006-8585, Japan
| | - Jun Muto
- Tohoku University, 6-3, Aza Aoba, Aramaki, Aoba-ku, Sendai City, Miyagi, 980-8578, Japan
| | - Toshiyuki Suzuki
- Fukushima Medical University, 1, Hikarigaoka, Fukushima City, Fukushima, 960-1295, Japan
| | - Yoshimi Homma
- Fukushima Medical University, 1, Hikarigaoka, Fukushima City, Fukushima, 960-1295, Japan
| | - Hayato Ihara
- Wakayama Medical University, 811-1, Kimiidera, Wakayama City, Wakayama, 641-8509, Japan
| | - Kazuhito Kubota
- The Institute of Medical Science, The University of Tokyo (retired), 4-6-1, Shirokanedai, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 108-8639, Japan
| | - Takahiro Mukai
- Kobe Pharmaceutical University, 4-19-1, Motoyamakitamachi, Higashinada-ku, Kobe City, Hyogo, 658-8558, Japan
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